I grabbed all of 538’s win probabilities for the remaining games and simulated the rest of the season 10k times to see where it would have the Kings ending up. I should note first that 538’s forecasts are based on preseason projections of player quality, and it has consistently underestimated the Kings this year. But it’s better than nothing.
I also didn’t have the time/energy right now to deal with tiebreakers, so I just made a note of where they occur in the plot. One thing I’ll note is that even with all these caveats, the Kings end up hosting a first round playoff series at least 64% of the time. It’s probably more, but if they were in a tie for 4th or a 3-way tie for 3rd, I didn’t count it.
Anyway, thought I’d share my procrastination for the day.
corbinmonoxide
For chart 2… if we’re in a X way tie for Position Y, does that mean our end position is 4th from that tie. Or that still needs to be determined.
As an example for clarification
Let’s say we are tied at 3rd with 2 other teams.
Does the data mean two teams are above us, 2 teams are tied with us and we ended up 3rd due to tiebreaker, or we could still end up 4th/5th although “tied” record wise, or something else? I guess is tie breaker resolution part of this data or purely end record based
jluc21
this means that we are in the play-in tournament no matter what at this point. we could 0-17 the rest of the year and still make the play-in tournament. crazy
Sethuel
I just caught a bug in the code in the way it deals with ties. It’s doing it by the lowest possible rank, not the highest. Which I think is maybe what prompted /u/corbinmonoxide’s question. Anyway I’ll fix it later, but it’s currently set up so that if we’re in a two-way tie for 2nd, it will treat us as finishing 3rd. Apologies!
Knowaa
538 is such a joke this days. the RAPTOR stat is nonsensical.
AusSac
538 has been wrong about us all season, why care about it now 🤷‍♂️
6 Comments
I grabbed all of 538’s win probabilities for the remaining games and simulated the rest of the season 10k times to see where it would have the Kings ending up. I should note first that 538’s forecasts are based on preseason projections of player quality, and it has consistently underestimated the Kings this year. But it’s better than nothing.
I also didn’t have the time/energy right now to deal with tiebreakers, so I just made a note of where they occur in the plot. One thing I’ll note is that even with all these caveats, the Kings end up hosting a first round playoff series at least 64% of the time. It’s probably more, but if they were in a tie for 4th or a 3-way tie for 3rd, I didn’t count it.
Anyway, thought I’d share my procrastination for the day.
For chart 2… if we’re in a X way tie for Position Y, does that mean our end position is 4th from that tie. Or that still needs to be determined.
As an example for clarification
Let’s say we are tied at 3rd with 2 other teams.
Does the data mean two teams are above us, 2 teams are tied with us and we ended up 3rd due to tiebreaker, or we could still end up 4th/5th although “tied” record wise, or something else? I guess is tie breaker resolution part of this data or purely end record based
this means that we are in the play-in tournament no matter what at this point. we could 0-17 the rest of the year and still make the play-in tournament. crazy
I just caught a bug in the code in the way it deals with ties. It’s doing it by the lowest possible rank, not the highest. Which I think is maybe what prompted /u/corbinmonoxide’s question. Anyway I’ll fix it later, but it’s currently set up so that if we’re in a two-way tie for 2nd, it will treat us as finishing 3rd. Apologies!
538 is such a joke this days. the RAPTOR stat is nonsensical.
538 has been wrong about us all season, why care about it now 🤷‍♂️