I knew it’d be more likely than not that we’d end up going higher or lower, but I didn’t realize the odds of staying at five were that low. There are obviously still games to be played and the Magic are gaining on us, but found this interesting based on our current position.
by MarkusAureleus
7 Comments
That seems wrong to me. That says there is only a 2% likelihood that the top 4 teams end up 1-4 in any order. It just surprises me.
It seems odd to me that that the average pick for the best team was over 3, but I added up all the average pick numbers and it added up to 105. Divide that by 14 (since there are 14 teams) and you get 7.5. Recall that noone can get 0 and 1+14 =15. 15/2 is 7.5. So…. it seems right despite feeling so wrong.
Being #5 definitely feels weird. Keep ending up with #7 using lottery sims.
If the lottery happened today Detroit would be about 23 times more likely to have the 5th pick.
Yup, odds are we end up with worse than the 5th pick. It’s why tanking is a horrible avenue to take if you’re trying to get good. It’s a lottery for a reason.
I can already smell the irony when one of these teams playing like they don’t know who Wemby is leaps us in the lottery lol.
Come on man, in true blazer fashion we’re gonna end up with pick #9 lol