Last day of the season: Celtics 2nd Round Pick watch ☘️

For a long time I have been standing of the teams in the league to see what the Cs 2023 2nd rounds picks will be. I know they are not super valuable, but I love the NBA draft and for team that has traded away the last three 1st rounders its all I have lol. I know most people don’t care about 2nd round picks until they become a player they love or love to hate, but over the past few years there have been a huge number of great players taken in the second round.

The Cs 1st round pick this year will be the 29th pick, and is heading to the Pacers in the Brogdon trade (absolutely worth it). There are some advantages of 2nd round picks over first, basically all 1st round picks have set contracts scaled from 1st to 30th, where all 2nd round picks are more malleable and can be value and length can be more controlled by the team.

There are two picks to focus on that will be effected directly by the result of tomorrow’s games. Every team plays their last game tomorrow and there is likely going to be some shenanigans done by teams to jockey for position at the bottom of the ladder. The teams that Celtics fans should watch are Houston, Portland, and San Antonio.

ESPN standings: https://www.espn.com.au/nba/table/_/group/league

ESPN schedule: https://www.espn.com.au/nba/schedule

**The Portland Pick**

The Cs own the Portland 2nd outright. Portland currently has 33 wins and 48 losses which places them in 26th, meaning the Celtics would get the 35th pick in the draft, a very nice pick indeed. However, Indiana and Orlando have 34 wins, so if Portland win, and both Indiana and Orlando loose then there is a three way tie that will come down to the dreaded coin flip scenario.

**Games to watch**
– GSW @ Portland
– Indy @ New York
– Orlando @ Miami

**The Houston Pick**

This pick is complicated to follow. This pick is protected at 31-32, after that it conveys to the Celtics. If it falls in the protects then the pick goes to Indiana and the Cs get some something right at the end of the draft. Seriously, this pick has of the most complicated provisions I have seen on a second rounder, have a look at the explanation from Real GM;

> 2023 second round draft pick from Houston, Dallas or Miami
> Oklahoma City will receive the more favorable of Dallas’ 2023 2nd round pick and Miami’s 2023 2nd round pick; Boston will receive the more favorable of (i) Houston’s 2023 2nd round pick protected for selections 31-32 and (ii) the less favorable of the Dallas pick and the Miami pick and Indiana will receive the least favorable of the three; if the Houston pick falls within its protected range, then Houston’s obligation to Boston will be extinguished and Boston will instead receive the less favorable of the Dallas pick and the Miami pick and Indiana will instead receive the Houston pick; Oklahoma City may convey the pick it receives to Denver or Charlotte (see Oklahoma City Outgoing) and Boston may convey the pick it receives to Indiana (see Boston Outgoing) (via Miami to Dallas; via Memphis’ right to swap Dallas or Miami for Houston) [Dallas-Miami, 7/7/2017; Dallas-Memphis, 7/8/2019; Houston-Memphis, 2/6/2020; Boston-Memphis-Portland, 11/20/2020; Dallas-Detroit-Oklahoma City, 11/27/2020; Brooklyn-Cleveland-Houston-Indiana, 1/16/2021]

Basically, if the Cs don’t get the Houston pick they get something much worse that I have seen in projections to be in the 50s (of 58 total picks due to two teams losing their 2nd rounders).

So what does this mean? This means that the Rockets need to finish with the third worst results for the celtics to get a really nice 2nd round pick, the 33rd pick. Where this pick ends up will be determined by two games tomorrow, specifically;
– Spurs @ Dallas
– Rockets @ Washington

The Detroit Pistons have the worst record locked up, but Houston and SA are tied with 21 wins and 60 losses. They are 2-2 against each other this season, so the tie breaker is coming down to division record the Rockets have. So here are the scenarios to watch;
– Spurs win, Rockets win = tied result, coin flip
– Spurs lose, Rockets lose = tied result, coin flip
– Spurs lose, Rockets win = Cs get the pick
– Spurs win, Rockets lose = Cs LOSE THE PICK

Now that seems pretty straight forward, except for the teams that are the opponents. The Mavs have done such an egregiously dysfunctional job of tanking that they will likely be investigated by the league office. They decided late that they needed to keep their own pick that has top 10 protections that I think they will try to lose to the Spurs with everything they have. The Spurs also have nothing to play for, but winning or losing does not change their lottery odds so I can see Coach Pop going for the win.

Additionally, the Wizards have one more win than both Indiana and Orlando so they have no incentive to win, and will likely aim to tank in the hopes that either of those win so they fall down the standings further. Houston may go for the W much like the Spurs, maybe to get some self-respect.

**Best Case / Worst case**

– BEST CASE: Cs finish the day with the 33rd (other in 35-37 range pick goes out)
– WORST CASE: Cs finish with 37th pick (other pick in 50s goes out)

So I will be watching the games and rooting for the Rockets to win, and the Spurs and the Trail Blazers to lose. Also really want Portland to lose to lock in the best spot🤞

Edit: the Mike Muscala trade sent out the lower of the Celtics incoming pick to OKC, meaning that the Cs only get the better of the picks. Still rooting for the Rockets to win, Spurs to lose to get the best pick possible.

by Son_of_Atreus