To start it out relatively simple, here are the differences in average statlines between wins/losses of the major Bulls players.
https://preview.redd.it/zj8jdhiq2cta1.png?width=833&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=4aaccb0612ea27089f733e141ff1193c6d66ebc2
​
To summarize
* Demar plays fairly consistently between wins/losses with the biggest drop offs in stats being in assists/rebounds. In wins, his 3 point shooting is also significantly better over the entire season. I’ve also included a separated tab of games before March when DeRozan tweaked his quad, but it’s essentially the same thing.
* Zach shows the biggest change between wins/losses averaging 3.6 less points per game in losses while his FG% drops by 17% which is a massive difference. He also shows significant drop off in 3P% in the games we’ve lost this year. At the bottom I’ve chopped the season in half to only take games after December first and the trend is the same, but the numbers just start significantly higher.
* As far as Vucevic goes, this honestly just shows how conssitent he’s been. Basically dead even outside of a rebound, but it’s honestly impressive
* When I saw the assist numbers go down for Zach, Demar, And Vucevic, I was curious whether it was due to lack of ball movement or role players not hitting shots so I also included breakdowns of them as well. AC falls off super significantly in losses on the offensive side of the ball shooting 12% worse from the field and 9% worse from 3. Pat and Coby are fairly consistent outside of 3P%, but both still shoot respectable numbers even in losses. It probably says more about roster construction that we’re this dependent on them as shooters than anything else.
* Trends that surprised me were Demar taking less shots in losses than wins and Zach taking more even with a significantly bigger dropoff in shooting splits.
​
As a small aside, I had to go through the rest of this by hand, so there might be a mistake or two (like double counting a game), but I did my best.
This is all pretty straight forward. Guys tend to play better in losses, but let’s take a look into what our offense looks like in these wins/losses.
​
https://preview.redd.it/i5d4njna4cta1.png?width=419&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=6345682e2a607aa383cb6566b6fe2f87bb00260c
* As far as efficiency goes, the biggest thing doing this has shown me is that this team wins games when Zach is playing well. Vucevic stays fairly conssitent as far as FG% in wins/losses and so does Demar, but when Zach plays well the team wins games. This also showed me that Vucevic’s 3 point shooting is basically irrelevant to us winning or losing the game (although I obviously know using him to space the floor makes it not that simple).
* On the 3 point shooting side of things, we have a way better record when Zach or Demar is shooting the 3 well. The w/l with Zach over 40% from the 3 is actually disgusting.
So shooting better wins basketball games…crazy but what about counting stats?
https://preview.redd.it/cri9519i5cta1.png?width=416&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=70d3a595995b09f3272a7f9118799b1bc132a9cd
* As far as points go, Demar sits pretty close to .500 w/l regardless of how many points he’s scoring as well as Vucevic. Zach’s ppg seems to be the biggest defining factor to us winning (which isn’t surprising considering his FG% and 3P% were also good indicators of w/l).
* FGA’s tell another story with the Bulls with the ideal FGA’s being Demar between 20-25, Zach between 16-20, and Vucevic with 16-20. As far as the types of shots go, it seems like the more 3’s Vucevic takes, the worse we do as a team, which checks out to what I would’ve guessed before doing this. The team also appears to perform better with Zach taking 3’s in volume. Demar again stays basically at .500 regardless of how mayn 3PA’s he’s taking.
Thanks for coming to my TED talk. I was planning on doing the bottom half for Coby, Pat, and AC as well, but god damn that was time consuming. If you read into these another way feel free to tell me.
by LarrcasM
