The Case(on) for Wallace: Some musings on the potential fit of one of our theoretical PG options in the Draft.

Apologies for the pun in the title, but the fruit was hanging too low to pass up. And apologies as well to the folks here that think the word “trade” is an affront to their Spurs fandom, but until the draft gets here in a few more weeks, there’s going to continue to be discussion around making a move for another first-round pick, presumably to address the long-term-PG-shaped hole in the roster right now. 

Based on a few polls that have popped up on this sub lately, it seems like most people here (including u/paxusromanus811, whose opinions as a draft evaluator and Spurs fan are some that I greatly respect) like Anthony Black the best of our presumed options, but everyone seems to recognize that it might be hard to find a trade partner in his projected range. Amen Thompson is a fun pipe dream, but I’m incredibly wary of the fact that he and his twin were overagers in the mess that is OTE, and I don’t know if I’m a believer in his shot ever being fixed, either. Then you’ve got Kobe Bufkin, who’s been a bit of a late riser as a jack-of-all-trades sophomore but isn’t quite as polished as a defender or playmaker.

I like all three of those guys quite a bit, and if the Spurs end up with any of them on the 22nd I’ll be very pleased. But I wanted to take a little time to focus on Cason Wallace, because I think if you told me we had our pick between any of the guard prospects in the first round outside of Scoot, I’d want him. That’s not to say I’d bet on him being the “best” player of the four in 10 years (though I don’t think that’s impossible), but I think he fits in the best with what the San Antonio identity is going to be now and in the future. I think the advantages that the other guys have over him are of less consequence to the Spurs than vice versa. 

**OVERVIEW**

The Spurs have a lot of player development to focus on this year. Wemby is going to command a lot of usage for obvious reasons. Sochan’s second season is going to be big as far as his potential progression as a shooter and playmaker while also likely getting some run as an actual point forward / lead ball handler. Branham probably isn’t suited to be a PG, and running him in that position too much carries a risk of hampering his growth as the smooth scoring SG he’s meant to be. 

Enter Cason Wallace, who could bring some really valuable versatility. He spent the first half of the season with Kentucky as a movement C&S guy, then took over as the starting PG in a very ball-dominant role after Sahvir Wheeler went down. He had success in both roles, and combined with his overall high level of understanding of the game, he’d be the perfect complement for the roster now and in the future – he can be a high-level kickout option and floor spacer for possessions where we want Victor or Jeremy or Vassell to mostly run the show, but he can also competently run the offense as the lead at any given time as well. 

**SHOOTING**

Wallace shot 34.6% from 3-point range this season, which is good but not amazing. That number needs a little context, though. In the fifteen games before January 10, he shot 41.9% from 3 on 4.9 attempts/game. I’m using that as the boundary point because he started to suffer back spasms on that date and pretty much just played through them for the rest of the season, where he shot 24.5% on 3.3 attempts/game. Back injuries are, generally speaking, the toughest injuries to shoot through – those muscles are involved in so much of your body movement that it’s basically impossible to maintain the same mechanics, and Wallace’s form is visibly more rigid and square in the second half of the season. His natural form is very smooth and free-flowing, but there were some games post-spasms that he was barely even getting off the ground. That Jan 10 date is also, interestingly, when he took over lead guard responsibilities, so as you can see from his 3PA/game, his catch-and-shoot opportunities went way down. Still, his 3P% ended within 1% of Bufkin’s for the full season on higher volume, so I’m comfortable calling him the most projectable spot-up shooter of the popular Spurs options.

Really, the bottom line here is that we already have Sochan, who may never be much of a shooter, and Wemby, whose shot I think will develop but isn’t guaranteed to turn into something that other teams have to gameplan for in a significant way. Without Chip Engelland still in the fold, I’d be a little concerned about adding another guy to our long-term core that needs a lot of work in that area.

Other notes:

* Shot 48.4% on corner 3s on the season on good volume, one of the most important shots in basketball and one that [we know Pop appreciates.](https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2146753-whos-responsible-for-the-nbas-corner-three-revolution) Bufkin shot 36.8%, Black 31.8%. NBA average is about 35%, and success from that spot in college has generally carried over well to the next level even for guys that have otherwise struggled adapting to NBA 3s. 
* Shot 41% on transition 3s on the season. Can very easily envision Sochan or Wemby getting a defensive board, pushing the ball upcourt, and finding Wallace on the kickout when the defense is forced to collapse, because those guys will definitely run transition a lot in future years.
* Small sample size because it’s not a huge part of the Calipari system, but Wallace shot 9/17 on attempts where he relocated and immediately received a return pass after making one (i.e. entry passes to bigs, drive-and-kicks, as the inbounder), which is a window into how smart and comfortable he is in getting open as a movement shooter.
* This is not meant as a disparagement, because I don’t think the shot is unfixable, but Black shot 21% on unguarded catch-and-shoot attempts this year. That sounds bad because it is bad – there’s a big gulf between the two right now and even if Black improves I have a hard time seeing him getting to Wallace’s level.

**PLAYMAKING AND CREATION**

Kentucky’s adjusted offensive rating with Wheeler as the starting point guard was 109.3. After Wallace took over, that number jumped to 115.7 – top 20 in the country over that period – in what was easily the tougher half of their schedule. Much has been made about concerns over whether Wallace can truly be a lead guard, but the kid can run an offense. He put up more AST/game than Black and Bufkin on a *significantly* better AST/TOV ratio (over 2 to 1). Here’s the stat I don’t think is getting nearly enough attention, though: of the 86 two-pointers Wallace made this year, only *9* were assisted (9.5%). By comparison, 28.9% of Black’s and 25.4% of Bufkin’s were assisted. Marks under 10% for that stat are generally very, very good indicators that we’re looking at a skilled primary creator. It’s also probably worth noting that Black’s numbers at the rim were considerably worse than Wallace’s despite his size and the fact that he had twice as many dunks. 

Other notes:

* Wallace didn’t draw a lot of shooting fouls this year, which is something he definitely needs to improve. When he did, though? He converted the and-1 *53.6%* of the time. That’s an absurd number – the highest in college in at least the last three years *by far.* For reference, Black and Wallace both drew 15 total and-1s, but Black drew a total of 50 more shooting fouls to do it (Black’s rate of drawing free throws in general is equally absurd). And Bufkin, considered an elite finisher, only completed them at a 31.3% rate.
* Close to 50% of Black’s assists came at the rim, but he and Wallace put up roughly the same rate there per 40 minutes and Wallace’s rate was better in almost every other zone on the floor.
* Great PnR operator with room to grow. Makes deceptive passes in the pocket and around big men, and he’s great at finding open teammates on the shake action, which I imagine is a look we could see Devin get a lot due to the attention Victor is going to command. 

**DEFENSE**

This is Wallace’s calling card as far as being the skill that gives him such a high floor as a pick, and yet I still think it’s being a little underrated comparatively. Black has 3 inches of height and 15lbs on him, and is seen as a guy who’ll be able to comfortably defend 1-3 and maybe even 4s at the next level. But Wallace actually has the longer wingspan of the two (6’85” vs 6’75”) and I think he’s the more polished defender as far as fundamentals and disruptiveness. He’s deceptively strong, too. I think he’s equally capable of guarding up to 3s as well and even some small ball 4s in the vein of Andrew Wiggins or our very own Keldon Johnson – those sorts of lineups are still steadily gaining popularity. The fact that Black averaged effectively the same amount of blocks as Wallace and Bufkin despite his advantages in height and bounce is either a slightly worrying sign for Black or a big credit to the other two. Either way, the guy we’re theoretically drafting here gets to play alongside Sochan and Wemby, so even if Black does have a slight switchability advantage, I’m not convinced it’ll be all that impactful in the long run. Give me that small extra bit of refinement any day.

**CONCLUSION**

Wallace has some detractors for being a bit of a “safe” guard that doesn’t get too creative with his passing and playmaking, or at least he hasn’t yet. And look, some of the things Anthony Black pulls off make my jaw drop the same as everyone else’s does. But we’re Spurs fans – we saw the Beautiful Game in real time. For the most part, that wasn’t a system that relied on crazy passes but on the *right* passes, and on guys making smart movements to be in the right place at the right time. Even as one of the worst teams in the league last year, the Spurs were still top 3 in the NBA in assists/game and bottom 5 in TOs/game – this isn’t a system that is in desperate need of a guard to shake things up.

Wallace excels at those things, and he just comes off as a Spurs-y player in a lot of other ways too. He hustles like a madman – you couldn’t watch a Kentucky game without seeing him dive on the floor for a loose ball and running like hell to get back in transition – and is more than willing to play whatever role he has to to help his team win. And while he certainly gets fired up after some big plays, he’s a guy that mostly just goes about his business on the court. I can’t remember a time where I saw him do anything that could possibly be construed as taunting.

The Kentucky Guard Effect is something that can’t be ignored at this point, either. He isn’t the same style of player as a Tyrese Maxey or SGA, but when you go back and look at the scouting reports for those guys compared to Wallace’s, you see a lot of similarities – questions over whether they can really be a lead guard or if they have talents outside of the singular role they played as Wildcats. I’m not saying Wallace can be the next SGA, but I think a Maxey-like breakout is well within the realm of possibility. He accelerates well on drives, and even though he struggled to create significant separation at times, he’s such a good finisher that all he needs is a half step – he hardly ever got blocked. Kentucky’s spacing was supremely terrible last year, too, so Wallace should really benefit from the extra room on an NBA court. I actually think his passing creativity has also become a little underrated at this point simply by virtue of being compared to Black – he showed off some impressive reads on lobs in particular, and if he’s going to spend his career throwing alley-oops to Wembanyama he doesn’t need to get especially fancy anyway. 

All in all, what you have in Wallace is someone who’s going to bottom out as a high-level role player and who could very, very easily have more to his game than that. We got to see him play two different roles as a Wildcat, which should give him plenty of priceless versatility immediately when coming into a rebuilding team with a lot of high-ceiling players to develop. But Calipari’s system never allowed him to play both roles at once, and if the Spurs are truly going to commit to this positionless basketball ideology (which they’ll have the personnel to do), that flexibility could fit in perfectly. I’m not saying Anthony Black can’t eventually develop a shot, and he’s such a smart cutter and strong finisher off the pass that he has some value off-ball already too. I just think Cason offers more to this team in that potential role right now as far as what it could mean for continued player development, and that there’s more than enough upside still there that we wouldn’t be limiting ourselves.

So, yeah, there’s some draft crush propaganda for y’all today.

by throwstuff165