Denver and OKC announce picks-only trade:
[https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/nuggets-make-rare-in-finals-trade-as-they-swap-draft-picks-with-thunder-per-report/](https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/nuggets-make-rare-in-finals-trade-as-they-swap-draft-picks-with-thunder-per-report/)
What a difference from our approach! Jokic and Murray are younger than our vets, but already they are thinking about the win-now objective, BUT, they are looking to do it by adding near-term picks that they plan to turn into immediate contributors. Meanwhile, we have left three Lottery Picks largely on the shelf while playing vet minimum FAs and watching our vets age by a few years.
If we focused on “play-now” Draft Picks, we could have done the same. Look at a guy like Desmond Bane. Sure, he was 3-4 years older than other guys in his Draft Class, but he contributed immediately. Most of the 18- & 19-year-old in his class won’t contribute until they are the age he was for the Draft. With a few exceptions, players won’t contribute until they are in their 20s, and when you don’t have the luxury of giving them tons of development minutes right away, why “waste” those early years awaiting the development of younger players?
by Nessmuk58
4 Comments
I mean I think we’re seeing the same philosophy creep up now. The average age of the draft prospects that have been worked out so far is around 22 with the youngest being Dereck Lively II (whose workout got canceled) and Jaylen Martin (SL/2-way/G-league prospect)
Plus the new CBA actually encourages teams in our situation to draft higher floor/older players who can contribute soon as that is the main way we can acquire talent on a low-cost + long-term contract. Personally, I’m hoping for Jaime Jaquez Jr or Trayce Jackson-Davis (leaning more towards Jaime)
Sidenote kinda surprised you didn’t bring up Christian Braun as an example too since you’re talking about Denver
I think there are several assumptions that need to be challenged here. The “problem” with “play now” players drafted is it’s a bit of a misleading term. While they weren’t drafted by us, Ty and Lamb are essentially “play now” players and they didn’t really contribute to the playoffs. Play now players do not necessarily mean they will contributing. Another is that Denver’s FO is probably similar to ours and sees that they need to get young talent in order to compete in the new CBA, just like our FO. And it’s not like the young talent there is getting much playing time either, just look at their recent picks. Zeke hasn’t seen time, Hyland isn’t even on the team anymore. Braun has been the only success since MPJ, who only really was able to contribute this year due to health and drafted in 2018. They did this trade also because they had a lot of picks traded to other teams and needed something for the future.
Denver’s approach is also understanding that they have been one of the lowest income-generating teams (in part due to issues with their local TV/media rights) and a bunch of big contracts are kicking in.
They are getting to the point where they are going to be similar to the Dubs (particularly with the new CBA/apron situation) where you have fewer mechanisms to improve your team via free agency.
This also makes a ton of sense for OKC – they have more 1sts in the next few drafts than available roster spots so why not add future picks when your prospective core is just hitting their prime.
I wouldn’t mind if the Dubs did this provided they really protected the picks, since OKC is likely looking in the late 2020s and that will likely be the post-Steph abyss, haha.
>What a difference from our approach! Jokic and Murray are younger than our vets, but already they are thinking about the win-now objective, BUT, they are looking to do it by adding near-term picks that they plan to turn into immediate contributors.
Your draft strategy has to reflect the team you have right now, and it has to be rooted in reality.
When the warriors signed KD, they spent their draft picks of Damian Jones (who was picked after his junion year in college. They picked Patrick McCaw after his sophomore year in college. They picked Jordan Bell after his redshirt Junior year (meaning he had been in school 4 years when he was drafted). They picked Jacob Evans after his junior year in college.
During the KD years, they consistently drafted low-ceiling/high-floor players. McCaw and Bell got serious minutes in the finals as young players, they certainly helped the team win now. That’s the drawback of low-ceiling/high-floor, you get players who help now, but most of them won’t stick because their low-ceiling means you find better players rather easily and that low-ceiling makes the cost involved in developing them not worth the reward.
However, it is important to note, this strategy made perfect sense during the KD years. Steph was 27 when the warriors won their first title, and he was 31 when Durant left the warriors as a free agent. Klay and Draymond were in that 25 to 29 year sweet spot between 2015 and 2019. KD was 27 when he signed with the warriors and was 30 when he left to sign with the Nets (his birthday is September 29th, meaning he was almost 28 when he signed with the warriors and almost 31 when he left).
That’s what the Nuggets have now. Jokic is 28, Murray is 26, Gordon is 27 and MPJ is 24. They have their stars right in the sweet spot. When Klay, Dray and Steph were that age, the warriors went to the finals every year. Drafting low-ceiling/high-floor players makes all the sense in the world during that brief window when your stars are at their absolute peak. When the warrior’s stars were that same age, that’s EXACTLY what the warriors did.
The warriors stars are not that age anymore. I know the Stein text message to Lacob is a gasser, but Stein is essentially correct; the warriors can absolutely still win a title, they just did so one year ago, and they might do so again a year from now, but right now, unlike in the late aughts, the margin for error is gone. Those warriors could have significant things go against them and still come out on top; these warriors can’t. The title last year has shifted perceptions to a place where people want moves that aren’t in the best interest of the team.
A team with an aging core of mid-30 something stars has to get younger. There is simply no other way to counter-act the demographic destiny catching up. The Warriors are today where the Spurs were a decade ago: an aging, late-stage dynasty that got a spark at the very end when Kawhi Leonard became a star and allowed the Spurs to make the most of the golden age of their big 3.
Fast forward a few years, to the 2017 and 2018 playoffs, and the younger warriors won 8 times in 9 tries against those same Spurs who had beaten them in 6 games in the 2013 playoffs. The Spurs couldn’t replenish their talent base fast enough. Time and age caught up. Injuries and performance drops caught up.
That’s not to say those Spurs couldn’t have won a title, that 2017 Spurs team was probably the second best team in the league, even with a declining Parker and Genobili, but they couldn’t overcome the same hurdles that they used to. Nevertheless, they were a clumsy Zaza misstep away from winning game 1 of the WCF. Would they won the series even with a game 1 win? Nope, that was the first year of the KD warriors, that might be the best basketball team ever.
The warriors can still win a title, but the draft strategy has to embrace the realities of a big 3 that is in their mid-30’s now, and not late 20-somethings anymore. Taking low-ceiling/high-floor players makes sense when you’re core is at the height of their powers; you have the excess margin of error to be know that a little push is all that’s really needed. However, when the margin is non-existent any longer, low-ceiling prospects do not give you the same value as they did before. You need to take bigger swings, because that’s the only way you can overcome your diminishing margin vis-a-vis the competition.