We are at the point of the NBA Draft where every player is great. However, the truth is the NBA is really hard and most players drafted never break an NBA rotation. David Locke, radio voice of the Utah Jazz, goes through 15 years of NBA Draft data and breaks players into MVP, All-NBA, Starters, Rotation, Partial rotation and non-impact. He breaks those down by where they were drafted and the outcomes are a bit daunting.
What percentage of top 5 picks really become an all-star? What percentage of top 10 picks don’t make a rotation? Is there really value to 2nd round picks? Is it true that after the 11th pick of the draft only 50% of first round picks make an NBA rotation.
Plus, Locke gives some thoughts on the G-League and player development. He also takes a look at Keyonte George and Anthony Black plus Leonard Miller in the G-League game.
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13 Comments
Do you think that this draft is a must hit for the Jazz?
I think you need to combine starter all nba and mvp. For instance, I would like to know picks 5-10 percentages of getting a starter OR BETTER.
Thompson twins my more likely early busts. I think Walker and Wallace are the likely other top 10 starters.
This seems to be a âwingâ heavy draft. Do we have these numbers by position?
It wouldnât surprise me if scoot Henderson maxes out at barely a starter. He just isnât a âwinnerâ despite his athletic abilities. If youâre that good you should elevate those around you too and be at least an okay team. What are the stats of successful nba players that came from losing teams before they were drafted?
I thinks back to Exum and Kanter. One hit and one miss. Neither a star but we took a chance and when looking around the others drafted in that range one was a hit the other a miss.
Love this because everybody thinks their guy is gonna become a star and ppl forget this is a competition. Someone has to lose.
I wonder what teams have the best draft percentages, and worst? Maybe take that inacount?
We knew this was coming. Your 1-10 amazing athlete is greeting walmart shoppers
I think itâs safe to say we always have at least one 2 way forward in the top 5-10 if not more that gets overvalued because of their metrics and athleticism rather than Actual effectiveness. Iâve been wondering if Brandon Miller or Cam Whitmore is gonna be that guy. I remember seeing Jarrett Culver live in college and wondering why he was getting so much hype. It made sense he busted. And then my Bulls drafted Patrick Williams completely off potential and nothing else.
Some thoughts… Well done today with today's show…. This is what I've been thinking as well…. Needed to tank better to get a better chance to get a higher draft pick and therefore a better talent… NOT an Anthony Black fan either…. Just don't see it other than his height… Hopefully Danny and team can find a nugget in the rough with remaining people on the board… Really like Bufkin's game but looks like he has a score first mentality and not necessarily a facilitator first…. Cason Wallace might be that guy if he's available but I've heard he's cancelled his remaining team visits after he visited Washingtonđ˘…. Maybe our best hope is to try to parlay our 3 picks into 2 to try to move up to find that better prospect
I hope you do a video at the end of next season to recap where you went wrong with your analysis and what you got right. I think it would be fascinating.
My top 5 bust:
Cam Whitmore or Brandon Miller – Not because I don't trust their natural talent, I just don't like their demeanor as much as the other guys.
My 6 to 15 busts:
Jarace Walker, Gradey Dick, Bilal Coulibaly, Keyonte George, Noah Clowney
Gradey Dick is probably a 9th guy in the rotation, so putting him as a bust might be an overreaction. I like the ability of the rest of the guys but they all have a ton of flaws and that's why I'm putting them here.
Anthony Black is my high ceiling riser. I think he'll be a high-end starter based on the passing and athleticism alone. And he's going to love NBA spacing.
16 to 30:
Most of these guys are busts, so I'm not going to list them all. Instead I'll least the guys who I think have all-star or starter potential.
Nick Smith, Jordan Hawkins, Jaime Jacquez, Brandin Podziemski, Leonard Miller, Rayan Rupert and Maxwell Lewis.
They all have the dog mentality I like and they will fight to get better.
I believe that 9 and 16 can become starters due to where The Jazz are at right now. That's if you pick two right guys.