This is a little long, and a decent number of this is speculation, but with quite a bit of obvious observations/facts sprinkled in. I feel like there’s a lot of media and fans confused about the way the Magic have drafted or are posturing, but to me, it seems super obvious what they’re trying to accomplish. And Weltham, as tight-lipped as they are around the draft, do tend to tip their hand in terms of team-building approach and expectations when entering the offseason.
– First off, Fultz isn’t going anywhere like some people think this upcoming season. He may not get extended, but he’s going to be the starting PG. All of the players talked about competing for the playoffs next season, Mosley alluded to it, they aren’t going to stop the train of internal improvement to make it the Jett-Black show like Banchero/Wagner/Suggs had as rookies, and there is comfort and confidence with the returning guys that they can continue the strong play after all those injuries early on.
– HOWWWEVER… the draft I think revealed a lot of how the front office feels about the backcourt. It requires a bit of nuance, but hear me out. They’re fine with the backcourt going into next season – it’s deep, it’s average.. and it’s flawed. Fultz is still a mystery but showed enough to at the very least be a solid starter, Cole shined in the 6th man role, and Suggs looked like an all-defensive guy with some improvement offensively.
The issue is, it’s a very small sample size. Does Cole continue to shine as a 6th man? Can Fultz ever shoot threes with more attempts/shoot with the form he shot a few times at the end of the year? Can Suggs continue improving enough on offense to match his defense to justify a high pick?
Which means.. they’re hedging their bets a bit. They’re okay with these guys for continuity’s sake, but not sure enough about their future yet to not take a BPA guy in Black (or Jett) to be the perfect pieces to surround Franz/Paolo with moving forward. The rooks may not get as much shine this year, but they’re very much embedded into the future, especially Black.
– So why aren’t they worried about a logjam as much as fans are? A few reasons. They saw how half of the team was in the infirmary early last year (and the past few years, tbh), and also because they still are deliberating which guys are moving forward with us and which have to be moved. And they know they have to move some of these guys, which is what the Black/Howard draft signaled. Which brings us to the biggest elephant in the room…
– [The 2025 CBA is looming.](https://www.forbes.com/sites/bryantoporek/2022/08/05/why-nba-teams-should-already-be-planning-for-the-2025-offseason/?sh=69a2e2ae27c4) This is already changing how teams are posturing and paying players moving forward. This is why they kept both cost-controlled draft picks when they easily could’ve moved one, or even both depending on who was available. They already know Banchero and Wagner are going to cost $$$. WCJ is on a great deal already. They cannot also pay Suggs + Cole + Fultz and hunt for future FA and expect Black or Jett to be Bamba’d (in terms of his role once Vuc started popping off), so there will be tough decisions made on one or two of them.. during trade deadline next season at the earliest, with the off chance someone gets moved (Cole/Suggs) this offseason if Harris returns too.
– What this all means to me, summed up, is they’re obviously sure about the forwards, unsure about the backcourt (but secure enough with its depth and play to not rock the boat this next season), but also have an eye on the 2025 CBA stuff and want the competition to bring out the best of the guards.
I anticipate them going after a backup C/PF (Isaac insurance) in free agency – I think Moe W. might cost too much and honestly as good as he is offensively, he was rated as the bottom 1 (or bottom 3, idr) worst paint defending bigs and isn’t a great rebounder, and Goga showed some nice stuff but they may just move on. Maybe another veteran wing or something and they’ll probably call it a day.
I’d be surprised if they make a big splash in free agency, but they could always shock me. This is just my speculation. There’s just simply no rush to get rid of any of the backcourt guys right away after seeing the chemistry they had coming off of last season.. but like I said, that tsunami is coming in the next year where those contract decisions are coming and trades/consolidation will have to be made.
by treadwater23
3 Comments
Great breakdown!
Cole has the ability to shine as a 6th man, and has been a great teammate on the court and in the locker room.
BUT he has consistently stated that “I’m a starter in this league” which clearly means he expects to be paid like a starter. He is extension eligible July 1st, which means the Magic will know very soon if he will accept a contract that fits our roster (cheap enough so we can still offer a free agent aax deal next off-season) or will price himself out of town.
Personally, I think we drafted Black and Jett with the intention to trade Cole to a team that can give him a starting role. We’ll get less in return than he may be worth, but we will get something back for him so he doesn’t walk for nothing.
Nicely said. I agree with everything. FO is leaving their options open and letting these guys prove themselves before throwing big extension money at them.