> The analysis showed that Irving’s shot wasn’t especially notable by win probability alone. But championship probability is where it stood apart.
> To get championship probability from win probability is simple arithmetic: win probability multiplied by championship value. Dave Studeman, the former manager of the Hardball Times, an analytical baseball website, assigned a rough value to every game in the MLB playoffs, which the Journal applied to the NBA postseason. Game 7 in the conference finals, Game 5 in a tied Finals and Game 6 in the Finals are worth 50% of a title—and Game 7 is worth 100%.
> There haven’t been many Game 7s, though, and many of those Game 7s haven’t been close. The 2016 Finals were the exception.
> Cleveland’s win probability when Lue called timeout was a coin flip: 50.2%. It inched upward with every dribble and spiked when Irving shot. Cleveland’s likelihood of winning the game—and the NBA title—was suddenly 82.3%. That change in championship probability was, according to the Journal’s analysis, the largest swing the league has ever seen.
airbus29
I know it isn’t by the wsj metric but the Ray Allen shot is bigger to me (even tho I love the kyrie shot) because in that case if he missed the series is over. If kyrie missed the Cavs still had a shot
Strong-Neck-5078
I love this article. Kyrie has become so polarizing but 7 years ago he was such a damn hero. A second that will live for a lifetime in our minds.
3 Comments
Some interesting bits:
> The analysis showed that Irving’s shot wasn’t especially notable by win probability alone. But championship probability is where it stood apart.
> To get championship probability from win probability is simple arithmetic: win probability multiplied by championship value. Dave Studeman, the former manager of the Hardball Times, an analytical baseball website, assigned a rough value to every game in the MLB playoffs, which the Journal applied to the NBA postseason. Game 7 in the conference finals, Game 5 in a tied Finals and Game 6 in the Finals are worth 50% of a title—and Game 7 is worth 100%.
> There haven’t been many Game 7s, though, and many of those Game 7s haven’t been close. The 2016 Finals were the exception.
> Cleveland’s win probability when Lue called timeout was a coin flip: 50.2%. It inched upward with every dribble and spiked when Irving shot. Cleveland’s likelihood of winning the game—and the NBA title—was suddenly 82.3%. That change in championship probability was, according to the Journal’s analysis, the largest swing the league has ever seen.
I know it isn’t by the wsj metric but the Ray Allen shot is bigger to me (even tho I love the kyrie shot) because in that case if he missed the series is over. If kyrie missed the Cavs still had a shot
I love this article. Kyrie has become so polarizing but 7 years ago he was such a damn hero. A second that will live for a lifetime in our minds.