Every set of data back up my love of Derrick White
waynequit
where’d you get half luck adjusted? where’s this from?
Beachcomber365
But JB is going to be exponentially better every year for Infiniti until he’s unstoppable!?!?!
gosuruss
Some notes:
-Regular season only. 2016-2019 means the 2016-2017 season through the 2018-2019 season.
-I don’t think you can do this sort of analysis one season at a time, the data is too noisy. Plus minus data stabilizes much better over a 3 year period.
-I am interested in RAPM analysis because it is an unbiased view into who is providing the biggest impact on net rating. It does not take into account box score stats at all. I believe box score stats can be very misleading, specifically points per game.
-In order to trust the data at all, you need to feel comfortable with who the plus-minus model says are the best players in the league. Here is a video showing over the last 10 years. It’s not perfect, but it does accurately identify most of the best players in the league.
-The data is half-luck adjusted, accounting for some 3 point luck, but not all. I don’t believe the full luck adjustment is warranted because it does not credit players for contesting well at the 3 point line. This helps shield players from the variance of opponents shooting super hot from 3 over multiple seasons.
-Derrick White has been really “lucky” with opposing 3 point percentage. If this data was not luck adjusted he’d be +5.32. Full luck adjustment would make him +2.84. Big range but he’s one of the players who swings the most with luck adjustments due to how opponents have shot. When Derrick White has been on the court, great things have happened for the last 3 years.
-Jaylen Brown’s box-score stats are nearly identical (PPG, TS%, Ast/36, TOV/36) over these 3 years which makes his 3 year number a little bit more reliable, because he is effectively the same player. Typically when I weigh someones 3 year RAPM analysis, I want to know if they’ve improved, declined, or stayed the same over those 3 years, because it is a 3 year metric.
-If this analysis included playoffs JB would look worse, as he’s had negative on-offs in last 3 playoff runs. Unadjusted he’d be +1.6 for this RAPM sample. Full luck adjustment would be around +0.
-These are the values that best fit what has happened on the scoreboard over the last 3 years when these players are on the court.
-“There is a tension, peculiar to basketball, between the interests of the team and the interests of the individual. The game continually tempts the people who play it to do things that are not in the interest of the group.”
luke_workin
Can you include Grant and KP on this?
DJRyGuy20
Data like this shows why Brown is not worth a supermax, and why Derrick White’s contract is incredibly valuable.
Theis159
So you’re basically adding luck on the RAPM? I say that because RPM from ESPN has Jaylen as a top tier player above all counter parts besides DWhite for all of the past 3 years.
Bag_o_Donutz
But I was told that JB gets way better each year
Sammy360
Its pretty clear how much the front office believes in Derrick White. Them giving up that first round pick swap shows how badly they wanted him. And the best thing is you can see his impact in basketball games. He’s a versatile player whos perfect next to Tatum.
BananaStandBaller
JB advanced stats all look pretty bad.. and he’s about to be highest paid player in the league
hotChihuahua69
So looking at this data… On a 3 year “average” (so to speak), although consistent… And as suggested, the playoff stats omitted or it would change some people’s data/ value…
Is Brown worth the max?? (Leaving personal feeling aside, or BB politics…)
I’m sure Stevens is looking at something similar, so maybe why we aren’t seeing a contract signed… (I hope this is why)
cane_the_weaboo
I wish the hundreds of people who’ve argued with me about the JB situation would peep this post. The amount of times I get hit with the good ole, “26 ppg 2 way wing” BS is crazy. He’s clearly not a valuable player at all and it makes complete sense to anyone who understands impact metrics or watches games.
Dudeman-Jack
Wow it’s almost as if the team got worse under Muzzulla and peaked under Ime
Unusual-Computer5714
I’m just as nervous as anyone is paying JB the super max. But just trying to understand what the alternatives are (I mean what do we really expect we could get if we traded him now with one year left on a good deal) and if assuming that replacing him with other more efficient player/s that haven’t had to carry a good chunk of offence would be better in the box score? Point being that it may not be that easy to get another 27ppg elsewhere as you need to be talented enough to beat your defender one on one and just put the ball in the hole. Not sure if any of that makes sense?
TL/DR short of replacing Jaylen with a more efficient star level player, you still would need to get his production from somewhere.
14 Comments
Every set of data back up my love of Derrick White
where’d you get half luck adjusted? where’s this from?
But JB is going to be exponentially better every year for Infiniti until he’s unstoppable!?!?!
Some notes:
-Regular season only. 2016-2019 means the 2016-2017 season through the 2018-2019 season.
-I don’t think you can do this sort of analysis one season at a time, the data is too noisy. Plus minus data stabilizes much better over a 3 year period.
-I am interested in RAPM analysis because it is an unbiased view into who is providing the biggest impact on net rating. It does not take into account box score stats at all. I believe box score stats can be very misleading, specifically points per game.
-In order to trust the data at all, you need to feel comfortable with who the plus-minus model says are the best players in the league. Here is a video showing over the last 10 years. It’s not perfect, but it does accurately identify most of the best players in the league.
https://streamable.com/gfo6el
-The data is half-luck adjusted, accounting for some 3 point luck, but not all. I don’t believe the full luck adjustment is warranted because it does not credit players for contesting well at the 3 point line. This helps shield players from the variance of opponents shooting super hot from 3 over multiple seasons.
-Derrick White has been really “lucky” with opposing 3 point percentage. If this data was not luck adjusted he’d be +5.32. Full luck adjustment would make him +2.84. Big range but he’s one of the players who swings the most with luck adjustments due to how opponents have shot. When Derrick White has been on the court, great things have happened for the last 3 years.
-Jaylen Brown’s box-score stats are nearly identical (PPG, TS%, Ast/36, TOV/36) over these 3 years which makes his 3 year number a little bit more reliable, because he is effectively the same player. Typically when I weigh someones 3 year RAPM analysis, I want to know if they’ve improved, declined, or stayed the same over those 3 years, because it is a 3 year metric.
-If this analysis included playoffs JB would look worse, as he’s had negative on-offs in last 3 playoff runs. Unadjusted he’d be +1.6 for this RAPM sample. Full luck adjustment would be around +0.
-These are the values that best fit what has happened on the scoreboard over the last 3 years when these players are on the court.
-“There is a tension, peculiar to basketball, between the interests of the team and the interests of the individual. The game continually tempts the people who play it to do things that are not in the interest of the group.”
Can you include Grant and KP on this?
Data like this shows why Brown is not worth a supermax, and why Derrick White’s contract is incredibly valuable.
So you’re basically adding luck on the RAPM? I say that because RPM from ESPN has Jaylen as a top tier player above all counter parts besides DWhite for all of the past 3 years.
But I was told that JB gets way better each year
Its pretty clear how much the front office believes in Derrick White. Them giving up that first round pick swap shows how badly they wanted him. And the best thing is you can see his impact in basketball games. He’s a versatile player whos perfect next to Tatum.
JB advanced stats all look pretty bad.. and he’s about to be highest paid player in the league
So looking at this data… On a 3 year “average” (so to speak), although consistent… And as suggested, the playoff stats omitted or it would change some people’s data/ value…
Is Brown worth the max?? (Leaving personal feeling aside, or BB politics…)
I’m sure Stevens is looking at something similar, so maybe why we aren’t seeing a contract signed… (I hope this is why)
I wish the hundreds of people who’ve argued with me about the JB situation would peep this post. The amount of times I get hit with the good ole, “26 ppg 2 way wing” BS is crazy. He’s clearly not a valuable player at all and it makes complete sense to anyone who understands impact metrics or watches games.
Wow it’s almost as if the team got worse under Muzzulla and peaked under Ime
I’m just as nervous as anyone is paying JB the super max. But just trying to understand what the alternatives are (I mean what do we really expect we could get if we traded him now with one year left on a good deal) and if assuming that replacing him with other more efficient player/s that haven’t had to carry a good chunk of offence would be better in the box score? Point being that it may not be that easy to get another 27ppg elsewhere as you need to be talented enough to beat your defender one on one and just put the ball in the hole. Not sure if any of that makes sense?
TL/DR short of replacing Jaylen with a more efficient star level player, you still would need to get his production from somewhere.