I’m back again to share my the latest edition of Ankit’s Cool OKC Thunder Newsletter!
Issue #9: https://ankitpancakes.substack.com/p/issue-9-the-new-cba-for-dummies
In this edition of my newsletter I talk about:
– Glossary of confusing CBA terms
– Cap Management rules in the NBA
– Changes in the new CBA
– How I think the new CBA helps/hurts OKC (spoiler: mostly helps!)
Hope you guys enjoy and find something useful! Would love to hear your thoughts on anything I’ve written. Also please feel free to fact check me as I wouldn’t be surprised if I glossed over some details lol.
Newsletter: https://ankitpancakes.substack.com
If you’re interested to hear what I have to say in more of a real time format, you can check out my Twitter (or your favorite variant) too:
by AnkitPancakes
6 Comments
Love this! Thank you for your service.
enjoyed reading that, thanks
Wasn’t able to enjoy fully because i’m not subscribed. Are you able to paste here in a comment?
Very good post. Thank you for the effort that you undoubtedly put into this.
I am not knocking any of your content, and I know some of it was provided for discussion purposes, but I have a thought I would like to throw out there for discussion.
You mention SGA, Chet, Giddey and JDUB as being four possible “max” contracts. I will concede that is a possibility and the picks we have would enable us to navigate that, if that is the direction we decide to go.
But having said that, I can see SGA and Chet being max level worthy. JDub “might” end up being in that class, eventually. But I can’t see Giddey as a max level player.
For cap reasons, and flexibility, I don’t see it being very realistic to have four max level contracts on a team unless they are all truly max level players. Giddey is a nice player, and maybe he ends up being all world based on potential, but I think he has a lower probability of being all world than the other three.
I think you will see Presti make a move with one of these 4 players before they hit free agency and restock the cupboard with an equally good player with a much lower salary cap hit. Giddey is just not in that highest tier of player, at least right now.
Obviously Chet and JDub are not max level players either right now, but Chet’s likelihood of getting there seems pretty high based on his draft position and measurables.
Time will tell. Thanks again for your post.
I also appreciate civil, intelligent discussion, which is far too rare these days. I will look forward to reading your arguments as to why that is an acceptable path.
Like I said before, your premise is not outside the realm of possibility, I just don’t see that as the right move for the Thunder. I’ll give you some insight into why I think that “probably” won’t happen.
We had arguably three of the top 10 players in the league in Durant, Harden and Westbrook and that didn’t bring a title to OKC. Maybe a treasure trove of picks would have been the difference with the BIG 3, but a BIG 4 would decimate the depth of your bench.
Many times the Big 3 would play well, and then the bench would give up 10 points to the other team as the BIG 3 got rest. It’s like swimming against a really slow current—you can beat the current for a while, but even the slowest current gradually overcomes even the fastest swimmer.
If all four become superstars, yeah that makes your argument more probable. But even then it handicaps the team to such a massive degree, it’s just not a winning recipe.
Obviously the real question, first, is how will these guys (and the other players) develop? I think JDub is going to be a very solid player that is going to “kill” other teams. He might end up being the glue to this roster.
JDub does literally everything so well. He may not be the best at any one thing, but he has everything. Size, flexibility, high BBIQ, he can score, shoot free throws, slash to the basket, run the point, handle the ball, defend 1-4, rebound. Man he just has so much potential. If he continues to develop, he could really be an elite, elite player.
No one wants to consider this a possibility, but what if Cason Wallace ends up being 80% of what SGA is? Does that allow the Thunder to (gasp) move SGA in 2 years for another Paul George level trade?
When you analyze the Thunder you have to look at the team dispassionately, and look at the players as assets and liabilities only. For instance Dort is a fan favorite, but if the Big 4 are signed, Dort and his salary are “gone”.
I think when you start paying a contending team you have to make really hard, dispassionate decisions. Part of that analysis is:
1. Can I replace a high salary player with a player of similar or equal value, in the draft or via trade for less cap hit?
2. Does the player I am replacing have special traits which I cannot replace in the draft?
3. What is my cost/benefit analysis for each player at issue and how does that player affect team chemistry if I lose him.
Obviously Chet hasn’t proven anything yet. Maybe he doesn’t turn into what we think he can. But Chet has UNICORN traits, and if all 4 of the players develop to be equal athletes, Chet is the hardest of the current players to replace. He’s probably one of the 4 that gets prioritized, assuming all 4 become superstars.
I’m not picking on Giddey. He’s a nice player. But if the four players we have discussed he is the least likely of the four to consistently “take over” a game. Giddey’s size is nice, and it might enable him to become elite and hard to replace (especially on defense) but right now, Giddey is merely a role player.
After reading the CBA and the contract extensions the max length used to be 5 years and the only way you could get that was by getting the max. However; in the new CBA, how I understood it is that any player can get a 5 year extension regardless if their getting max. Or is the 5 year just a max in itself. I need another option because I could be wrong. For example we give all 4 the max extension but theres a couple of millions to work under the cap or the 5 year is automatically the max regardless. Ive seen different maxes from different players and there not always the same.