#nba #nbanews #losangeleslakers #lakers #anthonydavis
On the latest episode of the Game Theory Podcast, Sam Vecenie and Andrew Schlecht break down what is left of NBA free agency. Here they discuss the likelihood of the Lakers extending Anthony Davis.
Full Episode: https://youtube.com/live/4iuXpOMCnE0?feature=share
4 Comments
What about the 14th spot? Who do you think they should get? What is hindering them to sign a big?
Is this from a new pod? It sounds familiar tbh, but not 100% sure lol. I listen to every one as well as a million others, so I get mixed up. The last one I’ve listened to (and last on my feed) is the 10 Qs one with Spins.
Also WRT AD, I would be trying to lock him up for the 3 more years if it worked out as actually being a deal. I believe how that works is he’d get the 35% max in 25-26 since it’d be 140% off of his ETO amount, which is > the max. If that’s correct, you’d save a lot in 24-25. 43.2M vs projected 35% of 24-25 cap, which is a lowball projection at 142M, so 49.7M. That’s only like a 4.4% proj cap raise. If it goes up say 7% or so, it’d be like $51M.
But would you be trading short term savings for long term? Bc if he gets 35% based off the 25-26 cap, (142M * 1.1 = 156.2M… .35 * 156.2M = 54.67M) it’d be AT LEAST $54.67M in 25-26 then 8% raises off that number.
So if he adds 3y now, it’d be 43.2M in 24-25, projected at least 54.67M in 25-26, then 59.0436M in 26-27, 63.4172M in 27-28. It’d be like 4/220.5M or whatever.
If you let him opt out of the ETO and get the 35% of the 24-25 cap, 49.7M in 24-25, 53.676M in 25-26, 57.652M in 26-27, and 61.628M in 27-28. 4/222.656M.
So the numbers are really close. It really depends on how much you think the cap will go up next year, his willingness to take less than the full 35% max in 24-25 after opting out, and if he’d demand 5 years vs 4.
The upside to doing it now is that you could trade him next year if LBJ leaves, you’d have him locked up, and you’d save $ in 24-25. The downside is him asking for a 5y 35% max, or even leaving in FA. Bc it seems like the difference in overall money will be very negligible if he adds 3y on now at the max, or if he opts out and takes a 4y 35% max next year.
I wonder if you could work out something smaller now. Like would he be willing to add on 3y at less than the full max? Like a 120% raise off of his ETO, then 8% raises? Maybe if you offered him a 2+1 at that number with a trade kicker?
120% would be: 3/$168,037,183, or with the ETO it’d be 4/$211,256,623
25-26: 51,863,328
26-27: 56,012,394
27-28: 60,161,461
So yea it’s a tough spot. I’d 10000% try to negotiate 3 more years at less than the max right now, even if it meant giving him a 2+1 and/or a trade kicker etc. With such a low projection of next year’s cap you just don’t know how crazy it could get…so it’d be a huge win to get him locked up to an actual number that isn’t tied to the cap. Bc even with the 142M number then obv 10% raise, it’s gonna be 54.67M in 25-26, and could easily be more like 57-58M. So if I can get his salary to start at like 52M or less in 25-26 with 8% raises, sign me up.
I’d go from there.
Or maybe starting him at like $48M in 25-26 with 8% raises, with like $4-$5M/yr in incentives based on games played? Something like that. Maybe $50M with $2M in incentives a year, etc. I think it’s negligence to not at least sit down for a negotiation right now. You def want to save $ for next year and avoid a possible 4-5y max or him walking, but you also want to get some kind of a deal.
But I agree if it’s either do it now or take the risk, you do the 3 more years. I do think he’d be willing to negotiate tho.