I’ve been listening to a few podcasts ranking the NBA teams and frankly, I think the Hornets are disrespected.
* [Through the Wire: #15 in the east](https://i.imgur.com/a/vTZvBtn)
* The Ringer: #12 in the east (ahead of Wizards, Pistons, Nets)
* Vegas odds has the Hornets at 31.5 wins, which is #13 in the east (ahead of Wizards & Pistons)
The Hornets went 27-55 last year at #14. But we need context for the bigger picture. The Hornets were 43-39 in 2021-22 as the 10th seed, with the 9th best offense and 23rd best defense.
Key additions/departures since the 2021-22 season to now:
– Addition: Mark Williams, Brandon Miller, Cody Martin’s knee, Steve Clifford, new ownership, Miles Bridges
– Departure: Kelly Oubre, Jalen McDaniels, Mason Plumlee, James Borrego
**Bad Apple on Defense… and Offense**
Don’t let his looks or last season’s 20pgg stats fool you, Kelly Oubre is not a winning player.
Last year, the league averaged 114.7 points per game and it is THE HIGHEST SCORING SEASON since the merger. Meaning that scoring is inflated and Kelly Oubre scoring 20.3ppg last season is the equivalent of 17.4ppg 10 years ago.
The more alarming stat is that Kelly only averaged 1.1 assists while committing 1.3 turnovers. [Only Kobi Simmons, Nick Richards, JT Thor, Mark Williams, and Kai Jones — A 2-way player and 4 big men (and none of whom average more than 20mpg unlike Oubre’s 32.3mpg last season) — had fewer assists than Oubre.](https://i.imgur.com/LKTHxKM.png)
Compared to the rest of the league, [Kelly Oubre is ranked 10th worst in assist%.](https://i.imgur.com/fdJOZsY.png) He’s up there with known playmakers such as Rudy Gobert and Walker Kessler!
On the defensive end, you can pull whatever advance stats you want and try to contextualize it, it won’t paint a good picture for Kelly at all. I trust the eye test and my eyes are telling me he’s no good on D.
All this is to say that Kelly Oubre stops the ball on offense and is a liability on defense. Good riddance.
**Upward Trajectory on Defense**
– **Mark Williams**
Mark Williams seems like the quality starting caliber center the team’s been yearning for since the Kemba has left the team. He didn’t get many reps last season, but when he does play, He’s a good defensive anchor. [The Hornets had the league’s most improved defense after the All-Star break, allowing 3.3 fewer points per 100 possessions than they did before the break.](https://www.nba.com/stats/team/1610612766/advanced?Season=2022-23&SeasonType=Regular+Season)
Time Period| Win | Loss| Win%
—|—|—-|—-
2022-23| 27| 55| 33%
Pre All-Star| 15| 43 | 26%
Post All-Star| 10| 12| 45%
Mark Williams Starting| 9| 8| 53%
– **Steve Clifford**
Clifford’s conservative, defense first style of coaching may not be the best fit with our personnel, but it does seem like more of a net positive compared to James Borrego’s style of high pace and offense focused style. While Clifford’s team lacks the offense of having a fast pace, high assist, and high 3pt% from 2022, he more than makes up for it on the other end. Afterall, it is defense that win championships. In just 2 preseason games, the Hornets looks like they’re more cohesive on defense and move the ball better than last season. Here’s to hoping that it continues throughout this season. This will be a prove it year for Clifford. Last season was a fluke with Kenny Atkinson’s abrupt change of mind, bad injury luck, and Miles Bridges’ suspension.
Season| Coach| Record | Def. Rebound Rank| Turnover Rank (least turnovers)
—|—|—-|—-|—-
2022-23| Clifford| 27-55 | 10th | 18th
2021-22| Borrego | 43-39 | 21st | 10th
2020-21| Borrego | 33-39 | 25th | 7th
2019-20| Borrego | 23-42 | 29th | 13th
2018-19| Borrego | 39-43 | 22nd | 2nd
2017-18| Clifford| 36-46 | 4th | 3rd
2016-17| Clifford| 36-46 | 4th | 1st
2015-16| Clifford| 48-34 | 4th | 1st
2014-15| Clifford| 33-49 | 6th | 1st
2013-14| Clifford| 43-39 | 7th | 1st
[This post](https://www.reddit.com/r/nbadiscussion/comments/hccmnt/oc_does_the_team_that_rebound_more_win_more/#:~:text=Over%2037%20seasons%2C%20the%20winning,%2C%20hence%20the%20negative%20values.) shows that winning percentage for team with more defensive rebounds is 74.5%.
[Although there doesn’t seem to be a correlation between turnover% to winning](https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/1i7roi/last_season_there_was_basically_no_correlation/) since it’s more complex to look at it on just the surface level, we should agree that fewer turnovers are better for winning.
**Returning Players and Brandon Miller**
The Hornets will be adding good players in Brandon Miller and others from injuries. The fact that people think this team will only win 4 more games or worse is insulting.
– LaMelo Ball’s presence on the team is truly night and day. Without him, the Hornets play like the old Steve Clifford teams… depressing. The team’s success relies on LaMelo’s health and he only missed 7 games in 2021-22. No reason why he wouldn’t be able to do that again.
– Cody Martin missed all but 7 games last season and his defense was sorely missed. If he can get back to his 2021-22 form, then it will alleviate us from having to play Frank Ntilikina more than he has to.
– Don’t hold your breath on Gordon Hayward playing more than 50 games. But with the addition of Brandon Miller and Miles Bridges, hopefully he can stay healthier by playing less minutes.
– Brandon Miller looks more poised compared to the summer league. I’m impressed with his defense so far. Hopefully he can transition into the starting role and takeover Gordon’s role later in the season being the glue-guy and 4th option until his shot falls through, and it will. Judging by his FT% in college, his numbers are comparable to Jrue Holiday’s numbers. Rather that he focuses on other aspects of the game besides scoring while he’s lower on the pecking order.
– As for the elephant in the room: Miles Bridges. Regardless of how his situation will end, history proves that good NBA players can get away with more (not that I am condoning his or the NBA’s actions in any way). So, assuming that Miles will play after serving his 10 games suspension, his production will benefit the team greatly. The team’s 3pt% suffered with the absence of Miles’ rim pressure to draw defenders to the rim.
Anyway, that’s my rant on why on every metric we should be a better team than what people say. My bias homer prediction would be 8th-10th seed. Let me know what y’all think.
**TL;DR: We were a good team two seasons ago. Last season was a fluke with bad luck. No reason why the team can’t return to where it was in 2021-22 if not better.**
by AsianNg
14 Comments
I’m really trying to wrap my head around how people think a Wizards team that replaced Beal/Porzingis with Jordan Poole would be better than the Hornets.
So much will depend on Ball’s health. If he can play 65+ games, I’d say in the 38-42 win range. Then it’s going to be a mix of whether Miller can be an actual contributor as a rookie (I think so at least as a wing shooter) and if Williams can be a starting caliber center for an entire season. As much as I didn’t want them to bring back Bridges, he would have certainly helped on the court. Not so much anymore.
Man I really have no clue given the new miles situations. With him I think we’re closer to 50 wins than 30. Without him I think this team struggles to stay at .500% and likely finishes 37-45
82-0
15 from through the wire was just disrespectful and based on reputation alone. The wizards get much worse and we get better but somehow we’re still the worse team? I doubt it
1st round minimum. Possibly 2nd round or further
through the wire lost 100% of their credibility in my eyes
2 more arrests
Disappointment.
I feel you. We’re a small market team, not everyone knows our team comp like we do. If I lived in a sports betting eligible state, I would be hammering the over on wins
As long as we don’t have to play our third stringers in the regular season, I think we will win a lot of games this year.
It’s 82-0 until they lose their first game, then it’s 81-1. Better to just enjoy the ride than always look forward
Over 31.5 wins is free money, I know that much
Rob and wos on the ringers powerankings show were actually super positive and said we could be an outright playoff team, which is certainly the ceiling for me. Called out Mark williams being the huge swing factor and the improved defence 2nd half of last season. It’s not all hornets bashing, and tbf there is a ton of talent in the league where even the worst teams got good guys. We’ll see