Edit: I think some people are just reading the post title. By “not suck” I mean ninth best lottery odds as opposed to second best. I don’t think we’re a possible play-in team.
I compared our team’s roster to other teams’ rosters using ESPN’s Top 100 player rankings (which are broadly similar to other rankings, like 2k or the Ringer) and found that we have the 20th best roster. Yet, Vegas odds (and everyone else I’ve read/listened to) expects us to be one of the very worst teams in the league, in a tier with the Hornets, Rockets, Spurs, Pistons, and Wizards.
I calculated the rankings by giving 100 points to the Bucks for having the #1 player, 99 to the Nuggets, on down to 1 point to the Knicks for having Mitchell Robinson at #100. By those calculations, the five teams listed above make up the clear bottom tier of the NBA, but our roster is far better. We’re in the next tier with the Jazz, Magic, Nets, Raptors, and Bulls. The attached chart shows how large of an outlier we are.
We have five top 100 players (Ayton, Grant, Henderson, Simons, and RW3) while the other five bottom teams have one (3 teams) or two (2 teams).
Vegas and everyone else I’ve read/listened to expects us to be in the bottom tier, but looking at our roster I can’t figure out why. Is it possible we’re underrated?
A couple theories that I don’t think explain it:
1. Our roster is very young: this is already taken into account in the player rankings. We’re super young, but many of those super young players are still talented right now.
2. We don’t have any top players: My ranking methodology says the number 10 player is worth nine times more than the number 90 player, so I think this is already taken into account.
3. Our players outside the top 100 are worse than other teams’ non-top 100 players: Brogdon, Sharpe, and Thybulle are all probably both 100-150, so I would argue we probably have a stronger bench than most teams, let alone most bottom tier teams.
https://preview.redd.it/los1ajc000wb1.png?width=1017&format=png&auto=webp&s=e400650f46270d8566fad5b7b4bde8ddc4f58385
by Gritty_gutty
25 Comments
I’ll definitely enjoy watching them pull off some major upsets this season, that said the Blazers still need elite talent. Joe needs to add another top 5 pick to the talent pool to contend in 3-5 years.
I feel like were gonna be BAD at the start of the season and kinda OK at the end of the season.
Yeah
We’re not good and Chauncey is still the coach. Also the top 100 is not linear
We aren’t going to see clean basketball, but we will see fun basketball. I’m excited to see the growth.
Yes, I believe the blazers will not win many games this season.
We are going to make a lot of mistakes.
Fans really to temper expectations of this team. I think folks are excited (rightfully so!) about the new young roster. But this roster is not going to win a bunch of games in this western conference, and that is absolutely okay and frankly what we want this year to get another good pick.
We will hopefully see exciting potential, a few upsets, some great moments, but this team is not a contender and that is just fine.
Yup
Yes I’m sure
Until I see Rob Williams successfully anchor the back of our defense, I’m still convinced we are going to give up a bajillion points.
It’s fine to be hopeful, but those of us that have been through this before have experienced the let down of having unreasonable expectations. 🙂
I feel like a lot of the people ranking us dead last think about it for 5 seconds and their thought process is: Last year they were bad and they had Dame. Now they don’t have Dame.
I think you’re right that our talent is greater than people give credit for. I still do think it’s gonna be an incredibly rough going because they’re sacrificing the maximization of the talent of the roster by developing Scoot and getting him reps as the starting PG (which is worthwhile for sure – just not conducive to winning in the short term) and like others said, I just can’t be convinced yet that Chauncey can coach well enough to have us not be the worst defense in the league. So yeah I do believe there is a world in which we’re on the tier you mentioned, but it’s not the expectation and it shouldn’t be
You did a lot of calculations for something that wasn’t calculated at all when created. This graph doesn’t translate to basketball at all. A fun thing to look at but doesn’t hold meaning
There was waaaay too much talk among Blazer fans about being a sneaky play-in / playoff team right after the trades went down. I never understood that. I’m hyped for this team and this season but that doesn’t mean I think we are going to be good right away. I think being excited about this team should come with having realistic expectations. If not, that’s how you get the “should’ve taken Amen Thompson / Scoot should come off the bench / should’ve traded Dame for Player X” takes we will almost definitely be seeing in the coming weeks and months.
Oh we’re gonna be bad. Rookie PGs have a steeeep learning curve, and the teams going to take a lot of lumps as Scoot learns. Sharpe is up and down, and Ant has yet to show any defensive ability.
Good teams are going to pick those three apart on defense. But that’s ok! They’ll hopefully grow and learn.
Yeah we will be bad. Did you watch preseason? Barely looked like NBA basketball. Our def will def still be bottom 5 and I don’t even know what the off system is anymore. This team is built to lose. Even if they make a jazz like run Cronin will pull the plug and trade brogdon and grant etc. I know fans never want to be bad but it’s the best course of action RN. No reason to rush back to the middle for a decade. Let’s let the cake actually bake this time.
Yes, we are going to suck. I won’t waver if they somehow have a hot start like last year. It’s a sub 30 win season.
Yeah we’re gonna suck. Idk why we are still litigating this.
99.999999999% sure we are going to suck, and that’s okay!
Slightly different angle: I think we don’t collectively as a team have that much pressure to win this year. However, if we do better than expected, it will be a great sign. If we happen to be decent I think we should fully embrace a winning culture and strive to make the playoffs/playin and not tank.
1. It would signify that our rebuild is further along.
2. All our player assets would be more valuable
3. Winning is fun
4. Even tanking there’s no guarantee our pick will hit
5. While we probably won’t be a top free agent destination, winning would help guys want to stay here longer etc
6. Making Dame jealous would be nice
Yes.
They are going to be bad, but I still bet on the over 😂
Coaching is a factor also and Billups has not proven to be a competent coach.
Looking at the Blazers and Spurs projected starters:
Scoot/Simons/Thybulle/Grant/Ayton
Sochan/Vassel/Johnson/Wemby/Collins
The gap doesn’t look very big. Blazers have clear advantages at PG and C while Spurs have clear advantages SF/PF with SG a wash.
Well if you believe you know better go ahead and bet the over on games won this year.