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Theory: the numbers seem to show that Kuminga and Moody on the court together has been suboptimal & Kerr’s attempt to stagger them has led to Moody getting the short end of the stick and is the reason for his recent decrease in playing time.



As the various lineup subunit and on/off stats in the screenshots above show, bench lineup combos are better in versions wherein they’re not playing with each other. This is obviously less than ideal given they’re key pieces to the intended bench rotation coming into the season. Given there aren’t any interchangeable pieces on the roster for Kuminga’s role, my hunch is that despite Moody showing more of a leap so far this season, he’s having to get shelved in the rotation more than is deserved because of this. It would also explain the inexplicable choice to go with Cory Joseph off the bench first and why Cory Joseph has been playing as much as he has the last couple of games. He’s basically serving as the extra guard to stagger in with Kuminga lineups as much as possible to try (there was a lineup in the 3rd where all 3 were on the court together and it was a disaster lol but for the most part it was either Cory or Moody on the court and Cory was on when Kuminga was on) and maximize both Moody and Kuminga when they’re on the floor (ie so they can get more time on the court without the other). And depending on the matchup, ie if it calls for more minutes of Kuminga’s player archetype (ie even if Kuminga isn’t playing well in a game, there may be instances wherein his athleticism necessitates him staying in) then the need to stagger the two seems to have results in Moody being the one whose minutes are cut.

I wonder/suspect if this is really what Kerr had in mind when he was asked in his pregame presser before OKC about Moody not playing as many minutes recently and answered that if there are nights where Moody doesn’t log as many minutes as he typically would, it’s just because they liked a certain matchup better. On its face, that explanation from him made zero sense, *especially* because there is zero scenario wherein Cory Joseph is a better matchup over Moody. But, if what he really meant was some opponents call for more length and athleticism in which case in an either Kuminga or Moody trade-off, they’ll need to go with Kuminga which could lead to fewer Moody mins that night, then that would make that explanation make much more sense. I may be completely wrong with my theory, but given how well Moody has been playing I’ve been hard pressed to find any other logical reason for him not playing as much the last few games.

The thing is, if this does have something to do with it, going this kind of staggering route and doing it with Cory Joseph, of all people, is obviously not sustainable both from a basketball and winning games standpoint but also just from the standpoint of it’s a complete disservice to Moody and also to the team because he has the third best DRTG on the roster, behind only Loon and GPII and the 5th highest ORTG behind Loon, Dray, Steph, and TJD. The team needs and could use more of him. I just don’t know what the solution is and upon seeing all of the above stats and what appears might be the crux of the recent rotation problems, I now feel for Steve more than I am frustrated with him because I genuinely don’t know what he should or can do if he can’t play Moody and Kuminga together for meaningful minutes.

by taygads

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