Still unemployed so Pacers obsession is my work!
The defense is bad! but here are some interesting things i discovered while digging around some stats and partly inspired by some of what Tony East has recently on his Locked on Pacers podcast.
Taking some stats from here: https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/team/indiana-pacers/stats
#Opponent Shooting Percentages
53.8% (16th) / 39.6% (28th!) / 84.7% (30th!!)
rounding up teams are shooting a staggering 54/40/85 against us any given night! Opposing teams have a 55.3% EFG (22nd) against us. Note these rankings in parenthesis here are where the Pacers rank on defense (i.e. 30th = worst). There are three teams in the NBA that average that FT% on a regular basis (OKC, Philly, Miami) and league average is roughly 78%. Toronto is bottom-3 averaging 73% from the charity this season and shot 83% from the line against us.
OKC has had a ridiculous start shooting 40.5% as a team from three (Pacers are 4th with 38.6% from three as a team behind Phoenix, Brooklyn, and OKC). League average is closer to about 36%! Pacers opponents would rank 2nd overall on 3pt%
This is insane. especially for a team that is also bottom-5 in giving up attempts (as the highest paced team possibly ever in NBA history we are obviously giving up a lot of attempts).
#Opponent 3PA and FTA per game
However! Interestingly enough, we are NOT giving up the most attempts right now – we are bottom-5 but I thought for sure we’d be dead last. In fact, we are ranked 1st in giving up 3 point attempts to opponents and only giving teams 25.3 3PA per game!!!! Detroit and Lakers are both tied for last at averaging 29.1 per game.
Opponents are averaging the most FTA and FTM against us. We’re giving up 27.8 FTA per game which ties Orlando average per game in second place (Philly in first with 28.4 FTA). Us and Detroit give opponents 2 more attempts per game than the other 28 teams.
Teams are averaging a cool 23.5 points per game off free throws against the Pacers. League average is about 17.5. Only Philly averages more than that any given night with 24.2 FTM per game (Phoenix is second with 22.1).
#Other Observations
We are bottom-10 in rebounding but surprisingly not last.
We are top-10 in preventing opponent assists at 24.7 opponent assists per game and we are 1st at opponent assist per FGM at 0.541 (Chicago is last at averaging 0.554 assist per FGM). This is a good indicator that we don’t allow open looks.
We are dead last in points in the paint giving up 62.3 points per game in the paint. First place in the league is Charlotte averaging 58.1 points in the paint (Pacers are second averaging 58!) League average is around 51.
# Some eye test opinions
teams have been shooting lights out against us. and hitting tough shots. Maxey, Giannis, Trae, Grant, and more have particularly roasted us no matter what we threw at them.
We definitely run guys off the line as much as possible however whatever switching schemes we’re running has resulted in far too many easy and open looks around the basket and second chance points off opponent offense rebounds. The iron curtain on the three point line has often resulted in the lone center protecting opposing bigs and driving guards with the ball with one of our guards being late to rotate or provide any help or rebound.
We’re letting bigs get easy looks around the rim and hoping Myles handles it or not and trying to out shoot them on the other end however teams have rose to meet us with their shooting but this will regress to the mean
by 210plus210
8 Comments
TL;DR: we let teams get a 2 and we go get a 3 fast
I’m curious what teams open 3p% is against us vs the league average. Idk if it’s free throws falling at a high clip or something but it anecdotally feels like teams get very hot against us with their open looks. I wonder if our pace gets other teams’ shooters in rhythm or something
Great stuff thank you for posting
They are definitely trying to limit opponent 3pt attempts. Thats apparent when watching, but in doing so they’re giving opposing teams great looks in the paint and a lot advantageous mismatches in general.
I think the Pacers got a little over confident in small ball. I remember during an end-of-year presser last year that someone in the organization (Kevin? Rick? I can’t remember) said one of the things they learned during the previous season (not a direct quote, I’m paraphrasing) was that size wasn’t everything; that they could play small and be explosive while holding their own defensively. It’s still early, so maybe that will eventually prove to be true, but it’s hard not to conclude thus far that they need to get bigger and more two-way focused at the 3 and 4 positions.
Man, I thought teams were really shooting lights out against us! Thanks for sharing this analysis.
Thanks for this post!
How is that FT% happening??? Are we exclusively fouling point guards? Are fans not obnoxious enough during attempts? I thought, anecdotally, that teams make abnormal amount of FTs against us but seems it’s correct
Thanks again for this. I think the %s teams are shooting both from 3 and from the line are good signs. Someone mentions pace getting shooters into rhythm and there may be something to that but I suspect some regression to the mean has to be coming. I also think the defense is improving. Guys are building chemistry and for all the talk of “guarding your yard,” they seem to be seeing and reacting to help more.
The first pacer/sixer game stood out to me. I remember watching the Maxey/Joel PnR and Toppin was glued to Harris outside the 3-point line instead of giving nail help before the drive. Likewise if Ben was in a low man position he would be all the way out covering the corner instead of being in any kind of help position before the drive. I watch the Knicks as well and Thibs has one of the most aggressive help schemes. They pre-rotate and force you to beat them from 3. In NY Obi is sitting at the nail daring the Sixers to kick to Harris. Seeing the same player with very different positioning makes me assume he is trying to follow the scheme. Despite that more recently I’ve seen him and other players in pre-rotations- helping before the drive at times. It is definitely selective but was not happening at all to start IMO. I am not sure if this is an adjustment or guys picking spots to be more aggressive helping but I think it’s starting to come together a little. Natural regression and chemistry should lead to improvement. They can’t let go of the rope