NBA Predictions, Picks & Best Bets | Pacers vs Bucks | Raptors vs Cavaliers | Tip-Off for Jan 1
All right in the Pacers and Bucks game it’s a few different things that I would look at uh number one that jumps off the page to me is Janis he’s had a lot of success versus these guys over the years if you look at his last few games vers
Him he had 64 in the last meeting uh before that he had what 37 54 38 so it’s just not a great matchup for the Pacers and it starts with their defense we know they’re not the greatest on that end they do a very poor job protecting the
Paint That’s where Yannis Thrive so I see being a good match up for him his points prop is high at 35 and a half but his last four meetings ver him he’s cleared that number easily so I would take a look at him and I know the last
Meeting I kind of wanted to look at Dame because of the ncon tournament and haly doing Dame celebration but it’s just such a good a good match up for Giannis that he might defer to jannis so I want to look at Dame in this one I will take
A look at the total though and it’s one of the higher ones that we’ve seen this season um I still can’t look to bet and under in this one the only matchup that has gone under uh or only meeting that has gone under between these two teams
Out of their last eight is that n Season Tournament game and it makes sense for them to play a little bit more defense in that kind of a situation the last meeting made it to 266 and both team Pacers have been playing with a little less Pace but bet
Bucks um they’re perfectly fine playing Up Tempo I think the Pacers um will go along with the bucks in this game and it shouldn’t be a whole lot of Defense being played always talk about the Bucs perimeter defense being poor hi and the Pacers guards can expose that or take
Advantage of that and the Bucs can take advantage of the Pacers inside so either the over for the game Giannis points over uh those would be the ways I Look to play this game yeah Pistons finally broke the that that losing streak against the Raptors and historically
It’s been profitable to to fade teams that break long losing streaks the the specific Trend that I looked at was teams since 2010 coming off of games where they broke a double digit losing streak 1754 17 and 54 straight up 2743 and one against the spread that’s just a 38.6%
Cover rate uh meaning fading teams in that situation hits over 61% of the time uh for the Pistons I know Duran has been back and you know he’s helped the team a bit without him the Pistons went 0 and 15 Straight Up 3 and 12 against the
Spread with them they’re three and 14 straight up 9 s and one against the spread so a big difference in in that spread situation there with d in the lineup as well they’re slightly more efficient offensively but I think where the biggest Gap is is on the defensive
Side of the ball he helps them tremendously they allow 124 when he’s not in the lineup but when he’s in the lineup it’s 118.1 points per game if you look at the rocket side they started off the season as one of the best home teams in the
League in in their first 12 home games they went 11- one Straight Up 101 and one against the spread but since then one one and four straight up one and four against the spread in their last five home games and it has to do with their uh struggles defensively but if
You take a look at who they faced they faced strong offenses they faced the Hawks Mavs Pacers Suns with their big three and then the Sixers U you know all top offenses in the league now they face a poor offensive team in the Pistons poor coming off an emotional win this is
A huge this is a spot where I think the Rockets get right defensively at home I would look towards the under in this game here I would take a look at the Utah Jazz against the Dallas Mavericks and both teams have been playing well lately but this is a Dallas team that
Has had to travel what their past 10 this their 10 straight travel uh game in a row so I think that’s a negative for them especially over the New Year’s um the Jazz played their last game at home and did not have to travel so I’ll take
That as a positive for them the reason the Jazz are playing a lot better lately is simply because they’ve gotten healthy they have nobody on the injury report as a result they’ve covered five games in a row they’ve won four out of their last five and they’ve been really strong at
Home especially I believe they’ve covered nine of their last 10 home games so I know it’s been Dallas roow really good as a ro favorite so far this season but you have Luca up in the air Kyrie could come come uh back into the lineup and mess things up a little bit there
For Dallas I just think Utah is Utah is in a better Rhythm right now and they’ve been a better defense they’ve been a better rebounding team the last five games they can do both of these things they can keep it respectable if not win the game yeah for my best bet I’m looking
Towards this Raptors Cavs game here I know the Raptors made some noise with the big trade before the new year both Barrett and quickley are available to make their debut today uh they gain offense with this trade but they do lose some physicality and defense without OG overall their defense has been lacking
This season in December specifically opponents were 10 and three to their team total over against this Raptor defense they allowed 11 19.2 points per game last month uh coming off of the loss to the Pistons too I know it’s huge obviously they’re going to want to
Bounce back here but I’m just not sure that they have the Personnel to limit the offense of the Cavs here this is also a tough travel spot as well first game home off a three-game road trip uh then they got to go out for five straight road games after this as well
The Cavs here they’ve gone over their team total in five of their last seven games they struggled against the bucks with with Mitchell coming back uh for you know after missing a few games and that’s typical typical thing we see you know when a when a key player comes back
The first time around um you know after a bit of a layoff they tend to struggle and that’s what happened against the bucks but uh another situation I look at here the Cavs has Road dog six and three to their team total over as well in that
Situation for me I look at the Cavs to take advantage of a Raptors team that’s starting to build you know starting from scratch to build chemistry with their new lineup the Cavs are top 10 in in the league as far as average points off turnovers and second chance points I
Think they could take advantage of both of those Cate ories tonight um against this this Raptor team here I like the Cavs to get up and over their team total 112 and a half
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1 Comment
Love your work Skee