I went into this exercise expecting Oklahoma City’s [**Shai Gilgeous-Alexander**](https://theathletic.com/nba/player/shai-gilgeous-alexander-Ghni3y9TrL9rBSl5/) (plus-10.0/100 EPM; second) | 9.1 EPMW; first) and Philly’s [**Joel Embiid**](https://theathletic.com/nba/player/joel-embiid-jcKI7IrySH9vZuXQ/) (plus-11.1/100 EPM; first) | 7.8 EPMW; third) to be in the front-runners group, with maybe one or two others for company, and was mildly surprised to note the distance the pair has put between themselves and the rest of the league’s stars in terms of per-possession impact. Of all the candidates, these two most clearly check all the requisite boxes, each leading a team tied for the league’s fourth-best record entering Thursday’s play, each having a near impeccable start to the season and each having a compelling story.
Gilgeous-Alexander’s story is as the league’s next superstar playing for the one of the league’s true young contenders. The [Thunder](https://theathletic.com/nba/team/thunder/)’s plus-8.1 point differential is easily tops in the West and third overall. When factoring in his near historic ability to avoid turnovers, Gilgeous-Alexander has likely been the most efficient scorer in the league.
His 97.4 points added on Basketball-Reference’s “TS Added” metric is second only to Antetokounmpo’s 105.4, with the gap more than made up for by the fact that Gilgeous-Alexander has turned the ball over 62 fewer times, less than half as frequently. He achieves this efficiency despite one of the NBA’s toughest, most self-created shot diets. Only Dončić attempts more self-created shots per 100 possessions than does Gilgeous-Alexander, and his status as the hardest player for primary defenders to stay in front of is illustrated by his large lead in most drives (his 730 is more than 100 more than [Cade Cunningham](https://theathletic.com/nba/player/cade-cunningham-xKlJ0Tp1E53cb36Q/), who is in second place). While his overall defense can wax and wane as would be expected for one of his offensive load, Gilgeous-Alexander also leads the league in total steals by a wide margin, the gap between first and second the same size as the gap between second and *67th*.
As for Embiid, he is having an even better statistical year than he did in his MVP-winning season a year ago. Embiid has raised his scoring volume to a 38.1 usage — tops in the league — with only a slight drop in efficiency in part to his improved free-throw shooting; he has made over 88 percent from the line thus far.
He is having by far the best playmaking season of his career, with a career high in assists and an increase of over 50 percent in his playmaking usage from 8.4 to 12.7. Though this increased playmaking is accompanied by a slight rise in turnover propensity, relative to Embiid’s offensive role, he has actually been slightly less profligate with the ball this season.
Defensively, this has been one of his best rim-protection seasons, in sharp contrast to a year ago. He is contesting a much higher proportion of opponent rim attempts — 45.8 percent, third in the league, compared to 39.8 percent a year ago — and is holding opponents to efficiency nearly 10 points lower, 51.7 percent compared to 61.2 percent in 2022-23, according to NBA.com tracking data.
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From the article:
## The front-runners
I went into this exercise expecting Oklahoma City’s [**Shai Gilgeous-Alexander**](https://theathletic.com/nba/player/shai-gilgeous-alexander-Ghni3y9TrL9rBSl5/) (plus-10.0/100 EPM; second) | 9.1 EPMW; first) and Philly’s [**Joel Embiid**](https://theathletic.com/nba/player/joel-embiid-jcKI7IrySH9vZuXQ/) (plus-11.1/100 EPM; first) | 7.8 EPMW; third) to be in the front-runners group, with maybe one or two others for company, and was mildly surprised to note the distance the pair has put between themselves and the rest of the league’s stars in terms of per-possession impact. Of all the candidates, these two most clearly check all the requisite boxes, each leading a team tied for the league’s fourth-best record entering Thursday’s play, each having a near impeccable start to the season and each having a compelling story.
Gilgeous-Alexander’s story is as the league’s next superstar playing for the one of the league’s true young contenders. The [Thunder](https://theathletic.com/nba/team/thunder/)’s plus-8.1 point differential is easily tops in the West and third overall. When factoring in his near historic ability to avoid turnovers, Gilgeous-Alexander has likely been the most efficient scorer in the league.
His 97.4 points added on Basketball-Reference’s “TS Added” metric is second only to Antetokounmpo’s 105.4, with the gap more than made up for by the fact that Gilgeous-Alexander has turned the ball over 62 fewer times, less than half as frequently. He achieves this efficiency despite one of the NBA’s toughest, most self-created shot diets. Only Dončić attempts more self-created shots per 100 possessions than does Gilgeous-Alexander, and his status as the hardest player for primary defenders to stay in front of is illustrated by his large lead in most drives (his 730 is more than 100 more than [Cade Cunningham](https://theathletic.com/nba/player/cade-cunningham-xKlJ0Tp1E53cb36Q/), who is in second place). While his overall defense can wax and wane as would be expected for one of his offensive load, Gilgeous-Alexander also leads the league in total steals by a wide margin, the gap between first and second the same size as the gap between second and *67th*.
As for Embiid, he is having an even better statistical year than he did in his MVP-winning season a year ago. Embiid has raised his scoring volume to a 38.1 usage — tops in the league — with only a slight drop in efficiency in part to his improved free-throw shooting; he has made over 88 percent from the line thus far.
He is having by far the best playmaking season of his career, with a career high in assists and an increase of over 50 percent in his playmaking usage from 8.4 to 12.7. Though this increased playmaking is accompanied by a slight rise in turnover propensity, relative to Embiid’s offensive role, he has actually been slightly less profligate with the ball this season.
Defensively, this has been one of his best rim-protection seasons, in sharp contrast to a year ago. He is contesting a much higher proportion of opponent rim attempts — 45.8 percent, third in the league, compared to 39.8 percent a year ago — and is holding opponents to efficiency nearly 10 points lower, 51.7 percent compared to 61.2 percent in 2022-23, according to NBA.com tracking data.
I can’t see Luka not being the front runner.