NBA Bets Thursday January 11 Picks & Predictions | The Sauce Network | Kyle Kirms

NBA Bets Thursday January 11 Picks & Predictions | The Sauce Network | Kyle Kirms

Yo what’s up welcome back to another episode of the SS uh NBA Thursday just five games and one of them is an afternoon game in Paris uh so really just four night games but we’ll go through all five or as many if I have time I’ll go through all five uh so far

Tonight looking good I’m actually 4-0 against the spread the problem is I only bet one the Kings was the only game I actually bet the other three were just leans I gave out on the show uh the games I need are still happening I’m recording this a little earlier than

Usual um Thunder looking good they’re still I mean they’re they’re up seven with a minute to go uh Sixers that game’s down to the wire Pelicans looking good at half so overall it’s looking like a good night but there’s still plenty of time for it to go downhill so

I don’t want to call it a good night yet uh but let’s get into it NBA Thursday let’s go update so these games actually still aren’t over but it’s locked in for another winning day I’m really having a hell of a week here um Jazz I’m pretty

Much chalking that up as a win they’re up like 20 points Raptors plus 10 they’re in a battle with the Clippers so we’ll see on that one another announcement though community parlay backto back two Community parlay Cashes in a row so shout out to the community

Let’s make it three in a row tomorrow at 400 p.m. welcome to the S The S hey get the sew first up Brooklyn is on the road in Cleveland actually that’s a lie they are not on the road in Cleveland they’re on the road overseas in Paris um this line is Cleveland minus 3 and the total sitting at 2252 let’s

Take a quick look at the spreadsheet and according to the model uh final score of this game should be 116 112 Cleveland but keep in mind my model incorporates home Corp so this is the model spitting out the score of what it should be in Cleveland obviously there’s not enough

Neutral site NBA games to justify trying to build that into the model so uh probably be about split even if it it was on a neutral site let’s talk injuries and Brooklyn is fully healthy in this one with the exception of Dron sharp uh he’s been ruled out also Ben

Simmons is still out but I don’t even know if we we mention him anymore if he’s still with the team on the Cleveland side they’re still missing the same two pieces that have been out for a while now uh Evan Moy and Darius Garland both have been out since early December

Well actually I think Garland was mid December Evan Moy was early December so as far as betting this game uh those of you that were riding the Brooklyn Nets train earlier in the season hopefully you hopped off that uh cuz it is definitely through the first 23 games of the year

The Nets were the most profitable team in the NBA 175 And1 against the spread uh you have been up 10.45 units just from betting the Nets blindly the bad news is if you’ve continued betting the Nets since that day all the way up till now uh you’ve since given back all your

Winnings they’re 2 and 12 against a spread in their last 14 they’ve been pretty much the least profitable uh Team to bet on in the NBA recently and if you’re wondering what happened to this Brooklyn team look no further than the defense uh and the crazy part is Nick

Claxton is actually doing a good job down low in the last 10 games during the net struggles Brooklyn’s still top 10 in most categories on the defensive interior but this Net’s defense is basically just an all you can eat buffet for jump Shooters and it doesn’t even

Matter where you are on the court I mean mid-range above the break threes Corner threes doesn’t matter uh Nets are bottom of the league and pretty much everything not only an efficiency but frequency too so they’re also giving up a lot of them uh jump Shooters are just eating on the

Nets recently and it just so happens that this Cleveland Cavs team has been taking a lot of jump shots recently uh mostly threes though not So Much from the mid-range uh but in the last 10 games 47% of Cleveland shot attempts have come from three point Cavs have

Been absolutely launching threes uh Nets are 28th defending the corner three and 30th defending the above the break three dead last in the last 10 games and the thing with this Cleveland team we really haven’t seen that much of a drop off in production since the injuries Evan

Mobley went down in early December like I said before Cleveland actually has a higher winning percentage without Evan Moy and same goes for Darius Garland he missed a few games earlier in the season then came back and now he’s been down since mid December Cleveland’s got a better win press win percentage without

Him also I’m not saying the Cavs are better without these guys I’m just saying them being out doesn’t necessarily scare uh scare me off them and that’s why I’m back in the Cavs here I’m rolling with Cleveland I’m down to fade the Nets any day right now uh give

Me Cleveland minus three next game Bast on the road in Milwaukee here uh as I’m recording this there is no Line open obviously Celtics Minnesota just got finished with an overtime game so I’m sure that’ll open any minute um let’s take a quick look at the spreadsheet and

According to the model we got a Leen on Boston 123 117 Celtics win injuries for the Celtics uh Kristof porzingis is listed as questionable for this game but I think he’s going to play they just rested him last night against Minnesota I’m assuming that was to have him ready

To go for this game against the Bucks uh so we’ll see He’s listed as questionable on the Milwaukee side we definitely have some good news uh Damen Lillard back in the lineup he was definitely miss last game against the Jazz they got beat outright um also Cameron pay has been

Upgraded to probable so the Bucs had no guards in their last game they get both their ball hand handlers back for this one so let’s match these two teams up on the court uh and I want to start by pointing out that this bucks defense may

Not be quite as bad as you think uh at least as far as contesting shots goes uh in fact the Celtics are actually a decent matchup for the uh for the bucks defensively cuz Milwaukee’s terrible against the mid-range shot and Boston doesn’t take any mid-range shots if you

Look at the efficiency number by Zone in the last 10 games Milwaukee at The Rim is 12th and 16th on the perimeter fourth 14th 9th and fifth it’s not bad at all if you’re wondering how the Bucks have had so many problems defensively despite having numbers like that it’s right here

They force zero turnovers just a 99.6% force turnover rate in the last 10 games that’s dead last in the NBA by far they’re dead last in the full season as well I mean this team creat zero turnovers uh they’ve also had problems keeping their opponents off the foul

Line as well so even though at a first glance it looks like the Bucks defense might actually be equipped to give Boston’s offense some problems don’t be fooled by that because all the underlying numbers all the intangibles everything points towards uh the Celtics offense being able to have their way

Here but the good news for the bucks is on the other side there’s actually a similar matchup here Celtics defense doesn’t Force any turnovers either we just talked about how the Bucs were 30th Boston’s 28th so kind of a similar matchup on the other side I think both

Offenses should be fine here in my opinion on paper this should be a great matchup that goes back and forth uh the problem is are we trying to catch a falling knife here with the Milwaukee Bucks because I mean Bucks have not covered a spread in 2024 yet they’re 1-4

Straight up and 0 and5 against the spread in their last five losses to Houston and Utah in there as far as what I’m betting in this game uh obviously there’s no Line open yet so I can’t make any final decisions save it for the live show truth be told I might be leaning

Milwaukee here as as bad as they’ve looked I think they got this one circled Boston coming off overtime game so I I think I’m leaning Milwaukee I’m not trying to lay any crazy line though so we’ll see where the Line opens I’ll let you know the final decision on the live

Show next game Portland on the road in Oklahoma City here Thunder laying 13 1 12 points at home the total sitting at 2332 let’s take a quick look at the spreadsheet and according to the model we’re looking at an OKC Victory 120 to 114 so that that would actually be a

Lean towards Portland and the points injuries for Portland uh most likely going to be without DeAndre Aton again uh Javari Walker May return though he’s listed as questionable he’s missed the last three games on the Oklahoma City side we got nothing no significant injuries on the report for the Thunder

Uh but keep in mind they are on a backto back so I mean there’s a there’s always a chance on a back toback that you’re going to see a name or two pop up on the report in the morning as far as matching these two teams up on the court I mean

We already know the story with Portland they just have zero defensive presence inside on the last 10 games they’re 27th in frequency 30th in efficiency defending the basket uh theyve just been getting crushed down there game after game and bad news for the Blazers Oklahoma City attacks the rim a lot uh

12th in frequency fifth in efficiency in the last 10 games and with DeAndre Aton most likely missing another game at Center I don’t see any reason why OKC doesn’t get whatever they want down low here and then you add on the fact that OKC doesn’t turn the ball over uh which

Is huge because that’s the bread and butter of the Portland defense that’s basically the only thing Portland does well defensively is to create turnovers they second and firstc turnover rate on the season but Oklahoma City’s offense is second and turnover rate they do a great job of protecting the basketball

So I don’t see any reason why Oklahoma City can’t do whatever they want on the offensive side of the ball now to be fair on the other side of the Court the Thunder defense has been struggling as of late on the season Oklahoma City is seventh in overall defensive efficiency

But in the last 10 games they’re back at 19th and in the last five games they’re back at 25th so the OKC defense hasn’t been very good recently the question you have to ask yourself is is Portland really an offense that scares you and unfortunately the answer to that

Question for me is no uh I this is a bad match up for Portland and you guys know I’m down to bet this Blazers team but it’s got to be against an offense that’s loose with the basketball right like Golden State a team that’s prone to

Turning the ball over that’s not okay C uh so I would have to lean towards the Thunder here but laying a big number like 13 13 and a half or whatever it is on a backto back that’s just not really something probably not going to be interested in this one if you’re dying

To place a bet on this game I’d look at either Josh giddy or Jaylen Williams over both of those guys take a large percentage of their shot attempts at the basket which we just covered is the weakness of Portland’s defense so that’s where I’d look but probably not betting

This one next game next up New York Knicks are on the road in Dallas uh Mavs are catching three and a half points at home but I’m actually already seeing fours pop up so by the time you’re watching this it might be fours uh total sitting at 2312 let’s take a quick look

At the spreadsheet and according to the model uh we’re looking at a 115 113 New York Knicks win but keep in mind the model does not incorporate the fact that LCA donic is out for this game New York Knicks are completely healthy uh obviously Mitchell Robinson is out but

We took him off the graphic because we originally thought he was out for the season report just came out today that he might return in the regular season so we’ll keep him out of the graphic for now and if we get an update we’ll add

Him back but as of right now the Knicks active current active roster is healthy that is most definitely not the case on the Dallas side I mean the Mavs are an absolute mess and that’s kind of been their thing all year man they just can’t get healthy Derek Lively most likely not

Returning exom is still out Maxi kba is still out Luca donic is out for this one also Grant Williams is questionable so this Dallas team man they just can’t catch a break this one’s an easy decision for me I’m B the Knicks here and no that’s not cuz I’m a Knicks fan

People that know me know that I’m a Knicks fan uh since the trade this team’s been rolling they’re 5-0 straight up 5-0 against the spread in their last five uh this is also a team that we know we can trust on the road Knicks were the second most profitable Road team in the

NBA last year and let’s be real three and a half is a pretty short number here and we’re talking about a Dallas Team without Luca donic we haven’t seen much from the Dallas Mavericks without Luca just four games but the Mavs are just one and three in those games averaging

Less than 110 points per game for reference with Luca on the floor they’re averaging 11 19.6 points per game so almost a full 10 points per game difference offensively with and without Luca um and he’s not the only one hurt they got all kinds of guys out not to

Mention the Mavs are 1 and three without Luca the one win was home against Portland so I’m not even throwing him a parade for that one uh yeah Nick Nicks – 3 and A2 didn’t have time to get to the Lakers game yet um right now it’s

Looking like Lakers minus 1 and2 at home against the Suns I can tell you I took the Suns on Monday night against the Clippers it was my only loss that night I had a monster Monday my only loss was Phoenix and the fourth quarter of that

Game man oh my God they just stopped playing basketball it it it put me in a position where it’s going to be really tough for me to get back to a Phoenix Suns bet anytime soon unless they show me something that was a poor effort

Um so I would say Lakers are pass but full disclosure I haven’t looked at this game at all I don’t even know I didn’t even look at the injury reports that’s how much I didn’t look at this one so we’ll cover it on the live show at 4

P.m. NBA Thursday let’s have ourselves a great day hopefully see you in the comments on the live show at 4 p.m. we’re doing uh college basketball and NBA we’re combine them we’re go through all of them there’ll be four of us uh so hopefully see you there remember to bet

Responsibly and if you want to join our Discord or get the top bets head over to kyle.com

NBA Bets Thursday January 11 Picks & Predictions | The Sauce Network | Kyle Kirms

Kyle Kirms, host of the Sauce Network, breaks down the NBA matchups for Thursday, 1/11.

Visit the website to see the final bet tickets for every sport as well as bet tracking and money tracking analytics.
https://www.kylekirms.com/

Nets vs Cavaliers
Knicks vs Mavericks
Celtics vs Bucks
Suns vs Lakers
Blazers vs Thunder

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