Three Bold NBA Predictions for 2024 | OM3 THINGS

Three Bold NBA Predictions for 2024 | OM3 THINGS

Welcome to the old man of three things with JJ reck and the dunker spot n Duncan and Steve Jones uh fellas first of all Merry Christmas Happy New Year we are recording this on December 26th uh we are putting this out on New Year uh so just wanted to wish you both

A happy holidays because we are recording this a few days in advance um I thought today we could give each give a bold predic for 2024 in the NBA I’m going to go last because I am really really under the weather had to fight through some stuff yesterday on the

Broadcast and energy is a little low so I’m gonna need you guys to carry me uh Nikas why don’t we start with you what is your what is your bold prediction for 2024 sure we can uh knock this one out also missed an opportunity to say you

Know such a gracious host you’re going to let the guests go first you know but I appreciate the transparency though that’s that’s that’s a nice touch that’s a nice touch I guess my bold prediction heading into 2024 I think Jaylen Johnson saves this season for the

Hawks we’re gonna go off the top rope as a recording five games under 500 I think Atlanta’s gonna finish at 500 or better with Jaylen Johnson back in toe and I think it’s for two reasons one he is very good and he’s very important to what they’re doing on both sides um he

Compliments Trey Young very well it’s going through some second Spectrum stuff earlier top pick and rle pairing in the NBA minimum of 100 picks is Trey young and Jaylen Johnson obviously Trey young can Boogie against anyone deep pull-up shooter can get to exp floer can get

Downhill can draw fouls can make all the pass you need him to Jaylen Johnson as become a much better shooter can knock down those pops also a very good driver good decision making downhill so those two play off of each other very well and then you think about defensively how

Aggressive Atlanta has generally been this year Jaylen Johnson has done a lot of work cleaning things up on the back back end when he’s directly involved getting up high and getting the flexions or when he’s the low man on the back end cleaning up some stuff at The Rim uh the

Atlanta Hawks with both of those guys on the court this year per clean the glass which filters out uh garbage time a 121.4 offensive rating with Tre and Jaylen on the court together that would be around fourth right now slightly ahead of Milwaukee a 115.7 defensive

Rating which would be around 15th in the league with those two on the floor and this is over 700 possessions so this isn’t super tiny sample size stuff he pick and roll defense overall is better with jayen on the floor even when Trey is directly involved in pick and roll

There’s a massive split between what those uh per possession numbers are when jaylen’s on the court versus when they’re off I think with more Jaylen Johnson you add in the shooting you add in the secondary playmaking you add in just the general size and ground coverage he brings defensively I think

Atlanta’s gonna continue to score at a high enough level and I think the defense gets better enough to where they are able to really punch for like a top eight seed man as this is good Synergy I did not know like illness could travel through these conferences like I need

You to get rid of the Hawks illness my brother just give it up new year new me write it down I’m just saying I’m just saying I think J is gonna be very important also before I’ll pass it off and before I get yelled at for there’s

No passing it off Nas there’s no passing it off we are gonna stay on this because I have some follow-up questions on this I’m I’m going to let you I’m going to but you go go I just have some followup questions okay that’s fine I just wanted

To point out after a cold start to the year weird shooting start to the year for Trey young he has been incredible for over a month now in fact as we record on December 26 he’s writing a seven game streak of at least 30 points and 10 assists and he’s knocking down

Over 47% of his threes on over 11 attempts during this stretch he’s averaging 31 and 11 since November 21st which signified the first game to he made more than half of his shots in a game again cold start first 11 games he just did not do it 39% on

Twos 28% on threes on high volume since that date 31.2 points per game 52% on twos the floaters back the pull-ups are back 44% on threes on over 10 attempts and he’s Diamond all over the place like he is still an offense onto himself and quiet as kept and however much you care

About it he is having the best defensive season of his career in my opinion so like I I think there’s enough of a foundation again it’s going to be led by offense I don’t think the Atlanta Hawks are going to start defending like the 0708 Celtics like I’m not

Ridiculous but like if you’re telling me top five offense 19th or 20th on defense I think Atlanta can make it run the second half of the year and now you can yell at me there’s no yelling involved there’s no yelling if I if I start yelling I will start coughing so I’m

Just I okay I I I want to just touch on something you first first of all I let me just start here bold take and you’re talking about a potential playin team uh so I was expecting I don’t know what I was expecting from you but given that

Your first rant ever on this podcast was about Charlotte’s pick and roll defense when they were about 25 games under 500 I just appreciate everything you bring to basketball discourse I love Jaylen Johnson I think he’s been a stud this year Well reasoned bold prediction all

Of that but I there’s one problem I have with what you said and that’s just you said Jaylen Johnson saves Atlanta’s season and they get back to 500 is that where is that what Quinn Snyder and and and Trey young are gonna be excited about a 500 season the play

In like in a vacuum I don’t think that should be the case in light of them being just solidly under right now and we are within like a what a 48 to 72 hour window in which both Mark Stein and sha Shir have dropped hey the jont

Murray might be available I think we are reaching this ain’t working let’s shave some money territory for Atlanta So within that context if they’re able to reel off like a four- win and six stretch or something like that that where it’s like you might be able to save this build and make a

Run Steve do you have any thoughts about this bold prediction there’s one other thing I want to talk about but it’s sort of an anecdotal topic related to the the Hawks so I I want I want to let Steve jump in here first well I think Jen Johnson is very important for the

Atlanta Hawks I do believe as Naya stated his ability to play that four position helps him both offensively and defensively I don’t know if it’s going to save their season because of the way the Eastern Conference is kind of set up right now like if Jaylen Johnson comes

Back are they better than this version of the Bulls are they that much better than the Nets are they better than the Pacers are they not just like this level below the Pacers right now like I just don’t know like does Trey Young have a stronger Allstar case than Derek

White oh wow you want to go there that’s funny in my opinion I think Trey young has a better All-Star case than Donovan Mitchell yeah see like for Bey we did our Awards episode I guess like a week and a half two weeks ago at this point

Allstar episode rather and like I had Tryon and I had Derek white in my short list so by virtue of that like I think the case is better and he’s been playing even better since then as has Derek white to be fair but I am I I am fine with planting my

Flag on I’m just higher on trade than a lot of people are right now and so like I just have to take I just have to hold L necessary okay I want to go back to save the season comment because I I want to I want to bring in the Nicks to this

Conversation so so when we look at the Eastern Conference right now obviously we have the heat Sixers bucks Celtics right uh and then the Knicks playing well Mitchell Robinson out for the season with this ankle surgery I don’t think that they can hold up the rest of the year at this pace and

Certainly not in the playoffs uh and and I by the way I love hartenstein but I just don’t know if if that’s like a a winning formula for what I think this team wants to accomplish so you would assume at some point they try to fill that you know that spot the Mitchell

Robinson lost because I think he was playing great defensively just a monster offensive rebound all that stuff potentially that injury and the Nets just being the Nets at times right the Pacers with the unreliable defense sometimes looking like they’re not even trying Atlanta could get into that six

Spot but again a first round exit I just think when we talk about like the Hawks directionally is like how do we get back to 2021 and was 2021 just a simple aberration was it just an anomaly was it a you know a a whirlwind of things coming together

Because I just don’t see a path right now where they’re anything but a first round team am I wrong in that I don’t think that’s unfair at all and like if it’s just me like I probably again I prioritize keeping Trey because he’s really freaking good and I think

Between jayen Johnson Anda kongu like those are probably the three guys where I’m saying okay under no circumstance unless for whatever reason like LCA becomes available or something crazy but under no circumstance about moving either of these three guys everyone else is right right price adjas it um like I

Don’t think this Hawks roster is ready to contend to be clear and so directionally like it’s probably better for them like I would have to go back and look at their pick situation considering what they gave for the jonte and stuff but like it feels better for them to just let’s

Reconfigure some things let’s see if we can hit something else in the draft and then try to push forward from there I don’t know if Atlanta is at that point and so if they’re trying to push to we just committed all this stuff to the jante we haven’t moved Clinton yet we

Still have these vets in the room Etc we’re not playing the rookies that we just drafted like if that’s where they’re at we can agree or disagree if they should be there then I think they’re going to prioritize time to trying to save this iteration and give

It you know kind of similar to Chicago actually just one last run with this group and then we’ll hit the offseason to see what we really need need to do or or what Toronto has done now for three straight years did I say that I’m sorry uh

Steve why don’t you jump in here with your bold prediction of 2024 I love it I I love it though it’s a great it’s a great I applaud you makas I I applaud you I love it uh well in honor of uh JJ reck scoring 21 points on January 1st in 2012

I did kind of have a list but I’m going to start with this sheay gilis Alexander will win the MVP the Nicole yic Joel ENB discourse will lead to a split and that will also lead to an opt out or it will just become a shay guilis Alexander Luca Don

Just debate and Shay will win that out wow I like it wow that is a bold prediction you said you wanted bold I came with the goods what y’all think of that one I got more I got more I have a a very quick question for you Steve what’s

Up if Shay does in fact win the MVP will you be happier that you are right or more annoyed by how I will act if Shay wins MVP uh the answer is yes it’s a very strong yes like seven emojis yeah the fire yeah yeah yeah because you’re

Going to do cartwheels and maybe maybe I’m coping I don’t know all right so you guys may not know this and I may have mentioned this in passing to you on one of the podcasts but I said before the season that myself and Tommy we were

Going to stay away from any any MVP talk until the 50 game mark my bad because it just got it got too much last year and now we’re like talking MVP on these debate shows five games into the season and it’s just like pointless whatever however because this is the Bold

Prediction of 2024 we are allowed to talk about the MVP so let’s let’s sort of break down because I I think Shay obviously has a case right now for MVP let’s break down what it would take outside of outside of uh the split vote with joic and embiid and the discourse around that

Let’s let’s talk about that I think OKC likely would have to be in the top two in the west I think with the way Denver’s starters are are playing right now Murray yesterday in that Christmas Day game looked like playoff Jamal Murray has for the last five games I think

Assuming Health with them they’re going to be in the top two or three in the west um Minnesota still playing well and if OKC ends up sort of in that two or three spot Shay has a case the problem is if jic also is in that two or three spot

All right how are you sort of De delineating between the two cases I think with embiid in particular Philly I I think there’s momentum there let’s just just talk narrative for a second there’s momentum there because of the expectations right everybody expected Milwaukee to be awesome everybody

Expected Boston to be awesome and those teams have been really good uh Boston in particular with their starting lineup 15 and one as of this recording the expectation around the Sixers with the nonsense and the drama in training camp and then Harden getting traded I don’t think that they were

Expected to be as good as they are 20 and five as of this recording with embiid so as long as they’re playing well it’s going to be hard to take away embiid’s case um so it reminds me a little bit of last year where it’s like I I think Shay is

Is clearly the third guy to me right now in in this MVP discussion and if you guys disagree with that I’m I’m welcome to to talk about that but I think for me he’s the third guy right now it reminds me a little bit of last

Year where you know when I had the vote at the end it’s like embiid yic Giannis I ultimately went with Giannis um you know I I I broke it down on on the podcast but I I’m just trying to Envision a Saro so talk me through this

Envision a scenario where Beyond just a split vote about the MB yic back and forth and the last three MVP votings them going one two how does Shay get the MVP ah well I’ll go first I know Nas has a whole lot to say my thing is it it’s

In beads right now cuz we are what 26 days in this month of December this man’s still averaging I agree with you as of right now I have December 26th I agree with you 40 points a night in the whole month I I think I go back to the

Chicago game where Joel and B played well and the Sixers lost and the Sixers have some setbacks or the league catches up to them and maybe they don’t fall to the four seed but the winning isn’t as much I think he maybe things move on I

Do agree I think OK SE second I I want to clarify that you’re saying they they still are the third seed but maybe there’s more separation yes so maybe Boston Milwaukee sort of separate one two okay all right so it’s it’s less hey we’re a game and a half

Behind Milwaukee and more we’re five or six games out let’s say hypothetically OKC would have to be the two seed to me uh I think there would be momentum for Shay if OKC is that two seed based on expectations and based on the workload that he has for that offense I think I

It’s splitting hairs because of how much jic drives Denver but this there’s always to me an unknown quality or unknown quantity Where we didn’t expect you to do this and for you to do this night in night out and drive the way that he does improve the way

That he has in the mid-range to go from what 47 48% to in the 50s on volume um to be able to combat defenses who still and this is Nas will tell you this was my take like hey eventually the league is going to catch up to Shay they’re

Going to throw something at him more help and he’s been like that’s fine I will continue to drive and if I see y’all showing help early I will just step back and shoot and I have no problem doing either thing y’all have not figured me out yet and that’s where

In my mind I’m like okay if OKC’s number two no one saw it coming he’s still performing at this high level I feel that momentum might be stronger than a yic who’s doing incredible things um but there’s a known quantity to that is where my boldness comes in

Okay so if embiid in the Sixers take a step back OKC gets that two seed I think he rises above okay all right that’s reasoned the what is your what is your sort of take on all of this um like I again I don’t think that’s too farfetch like it is

Bold just considering how well embiid and joic have played and just generally what the discourse has been but like I I could get there to Shay like I think that’d be a fun pick um with both of you guys like he’s probably number three for me right now

Um in terms of trying to Envision what the shake case would look like I think just very quickly like I would go to some of the onoff stuff if how depending on how much the voters care about that kind of thing and to where like if you

Go to PVP stats they allow you to filter with just the games that that players is played so you don’t get the this guy missed eight games the team was all of whatever and so looking at that uh Philly’s a plus 13.2 with Joel on the

Floor and they’re plus 13.9 with him off which speaks to how well Tyrese Maxi has played and how well that bench is played so it’s not a you shouldn’t denigrate Joel off of that but if you’re getting into this team can’t survive without what this guy is doing you can at least

Argue okay Tyrese Maxi plus bench has been able to carry the load to a degree that Joel embiid has not seen in his career to this point meanwhile Shay plus 12 with him on they’re minus six with him off and then yok you still have plus

12 with him on minus 12 with him off in terms of all enough stuff and so from there again like plus 13 for B plus 12 for Shay that isn’t big of a difference so if you are assuming like OKC fit is top two and Philly’s in third or

Something like that and then you factor in the defense in which I think yoka has been fine this year I think Shay has a fringe all defense case I think Joel and beid should be in the defensive player of the year discussion but we have had the stretches where Joel’s just kind of

Chilling defensively not that it still can’t be effective because of how fearsome of a r protector he is but if he does if he loses some of the loudness with his defensive player the year case and you have Shay leading the league and Steals on top of dropping 30 efficiency

Efficiently for a team that a lot of people didn’t anticipate um to be this high up in standings like we had the conversation earlier in the year where you asked what would OKC’s highend be for me and I was like I think they can get home court and

I have somehow undersold that with how they played so far this year and so you put all of that by the way it seemed it seemed like a a a step not a step out on a ledge but it it seemed like a bold a boldish prediction at the time yeah like

That that was like to me that that aligned with where I thought their ceiling could be and that they’re to me they’re closer than they’re closer to it if you know what I mean by it they’re closer to it than I even realized and they’re they’re awesome they’re

Like nearly there yeah so you’re gonna get you’re G to end up with a case where Shay has the scoring stuff and the playmaking he’s gonna have the efficiency he’s gonna have the all defense case you’re gonna have the onoff stuff like you’re looking at if you want

To look at like EPM right now like number one is Joel be number two is Shay and so any sort of slipage from embiid or you know we’re removing the discourse portion of it right now but if you bring that back into the table it becomes a little bit more realistic that Shay

Could get this thing I do Wonder this is part of the reason I I I’ve realized and we’ve talked a ton this season already we have I’ve done it with legler I’ve done it with RJ is like the importance of just sample size I think one of the

Things that is really important with sample size particularly with the Sixers and this is not a knock because I just said Joel embiid is my MVP so far one of the things with the Sixers that I think that can be a little noisy with some of the plus minus onoff they played some

Bad teams in this stretch they played some bad teams they’ve had some massive blowouts the other thing that I wanted to just sort of get to a little bit is Maxie and I know he had you know yesterday he had an awful game in Miami he has been awesome throughout so he got

Up this great start and there really hasn’t been a drop off and I wonder to some degree in this sort of best case foret scenario if Maxi is still a top 10 player in EPM or all of these you know Advanced individual stats does that in any way shape or form hurt joelle’s

Case oh I want to go quick before goes I might say that Joel embiid plus the Sixers moving more and him having more assists and you can visibly see the Improvement passing Wise from him even if sometimes it’s a byproduct of Maxi May counter that to a

Degree yep well I that’s why I asked the question because I was gonna I was gonna answer my own question but I wanted to let you go I’m gonna answer my own question in a second ni I want to hear your thoughts on that okay um I think

That’s a good point from Steve first and for formost I think on a very basic level you do have another guy who could just take on the offensive load in Philadelphia and I think within that very specific context like Maxi may hurt whereas in OKC ask a thunder fan how they filled

About the non Shay minutes this year and this is with Chad being awesome and I think what’s impressed a lot of people at least for me anyway with Chad is he looks so much better as a driver than I anticipated this year based on some of

The stuff we saw in summer league and the handle just a lot tired Etc you’re still not running the offense through chair in a traditional manner yet to where he can just be a second guy that can just lift things up and frankly like the Josh giddy units just have not

Worked because the scoring has regressed among other things and so that’s where again it goes back into the onoff stuff where OKC just kind of dies with Shay off the floor and so if you’re comparing like what they get from Chad giddy running things when Shay’s on the bench

Versus Tyrese in this bench and they’re still blitzing teams I think Tyrese would kind of hurt the joelb MVP case in that man okay I get I get it and I I I I would answer my question with maxi is awesome but I also think there is an element of Joelle Maxi partnership

Elevating Maxi even more than I think what we all thought he could be and I had said going back to last spring when they lose the second round I had said like i’ move on from James Harden this is not going to work see how good Maxi

Can be he’s better than I and I thought he was gonna be better than he was his first three years he’s better than I thought I mean he’s awesome like he’s awesome I love him like he’s awesome um all right guys hang with me for a second

Just this is a random one and I I I wanted to go a number of ways and I actually truthfully one of of the ideas I had was to go Shay winning the MVP as my bold prediction and I’m glad I didn’t go with that glad I didn’t go with that so my

Bold prediction maybe this isn’t bold but this is my bold prediction my bold prediction is that the Los Angeles Clippers make the Conference Finals but lose they’re going to be in the Conference Finals like I I actually right now in the Western Conference I’m like if you said to me outside of Denver

What team do you like to make the conference right now I would say I’d probably say the Clippers I’d probably say the Clippers like I we were la like not we people were making the strongest takes three four five games in on that team and they’re 14 and five they had a

14-3 run before they lost to OKC in Boston James Harden has embraced being that third guy Kawai and PG’s efficiency has gone up over the last nine games they got Leonard George Harden at 44% over the last 19 and Norman Powell all shooting over 40% like they’re really good they’re really good

So like Jason Gallagher and I were talking about this this morning I think it’s really hard in the NBA to have absolute takes absolute takes like my take last night Derrik white is an All-Star like there’s nothing absolute about that I think there should be 15 roster spots

I’ll say it every time there should be 15 roster spots 4% of the NBA makes the All-Star Game there were times in the NBA where 20% of the league made the All-Star game it’s harder than ever to make an All-Star game B just based on numbers still still at 12 for whatever

Reason still at 12 I don’t know why Derek white is an All-Star okay that’s not absolute we were talking about Trey young earlier Trey young deserves to be All-Star he’s been awesome he’s been awesome Scotty Barnes has been awesome I’m going to go on a a

Whole thing later today it’ll be out by the time this comes out it’s about Derek white and like why I think he has an All-Star case guess what Scotty Barnes also has a great All-Star case when we start going into the advanced numbers like nothing is absolute in the NBA and

And the incredible thing is I could go stand for a player because of how he’s playing you could go stand for a team because of how they’re playing and two weeks later they suck they suck that’s the crazy thing about the NBA that’s why we need that’s why we need 50 or 60

Games or or hear me out up to this point right up to this point let’s not be so absolute I’m guilty of it too I’m guilty of it let’s not be so absolute that’s tremendous work to back door yet another Bowl taking in to drop this thefe the six game that’s good

Stuff just effortless just effortless also related note is the actual bold take that is just James Hart is an Allstar say it again I said does that just wind up being the actual bow take James Harden makes the allstar team again did you say that from from me how

Did we get there how did we get there no I’m just think about how well he’s played I had to fight you on that last year there were like three or four Bridges you crossed there there are three or four Bridges I’m not even sure how you cross those bridges that quickly

I’m just tossing it out there you know it’s all good H holiday cheer and all that good stuff wow I can’t wait for the backlash of this episode oh it’s gonna be great it’s gonna be great appreciate it fellas I I I’m going uh hopefully healthy uh

Tomorrow be out a little vacation for me and my family appreciate you guys uh one of the greatest things about the last year and change is having you guys on board uh with 342 and us being a part of the dunker spot you being a part of old man

In the three can’t thank you guys enough happy New Year blessings for you in 2024 thank you sir same to you always gracious to be here we appreciate you enjoy get some rest enjoy the vacer w

Happy New Year from The Old Man and the Three! In this Monday’s OM3 Things, JJ is joined by Nekias Duncan and Steve Jones Jr. of The Dunker Spot to share three bold predictions that they think will happen in 2024.

(0:00) Intro
(1:10) Jalen Johnson saves the Hawks
(11:20) SGA for MVP
(24:47) The Clippers make the WCF

Subscribe to The Old Man and The Three podcast w/ JJ Redick (ESPN / First Take) and Tommy Alter YouTube channel today for more NBA analysis, player interviews and highlights.