Grant Afseth [posted this](https://twitter.com/GrantAfseth/status/1747095880853815701?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet) today. I added win% and what that would mean for wins if the player combos had played all 41 games.
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https://preview.redd.it/aejfhaus7qcc1.png?width=545&format=png&auto=webp&s=6f1d90ab0edacbf104382076645a9e1858f0edd6
I’m not dumb enough to suggest Lively is more important than Luka even though Lively’s win % is higher…but I ask three questions
1. Does it surprise you that Lively is arguably the 2nd most important player?
2. What does it mean for the importance of having a higher quality backup when he is out / injured / rookie wall etc?
3. How much are you willing to potentially overpay to bring in a backup if the market is demanding it?
(in case you want to spice up your powerpoints, here’s the [Dallas Mavericks hex codes](https://teamcolorcodes.com/dallas-mavericks-color-codes/))
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Dallas Mavericks Record Breakdown:
Overall: 24-17
Doncic Plays: 21-13
Lively Plays: 20-10
Irving Plays: 15-10
Doncic + Lively Plays: 19-8
Doncic + Irving Plays: 12-8
Irving + Lively Plays: 12-6
Doncic + Irving + Lively Plays: 11-5— Grant Afseth (@GrantAfseth) January 16, 2024
by gregallbright
21 Comments
This is not a surprise at all. Lively fulfills a core defensive role that nobody else can fill: he is a deterrent in the paint.
This allows our defense to actually make switches and guard the perimeter without folding inwards every time.
It’s not that Lively is amazing, it’s that he’s good enough to make our defense actually a thing.
Clearly displays our depth at guard and our lack of meaningful contributors in the front court. It’s not that controversial to say Lively is more important than Kyrie on this roster. He’s not a better player currently, but he’s more important on this team. Likewise if we were the Timberwolves, Kyrie would be of more value than Lively. Gobert KAT and Naz would make him less transformational for the roster. With 2 superstar guards rotating in and out he’s placed in a position of success every night he suits up. We need him desperately for that role.
I think we’ve all agreed Lively is the 3rd best player on the team and he’s only a rookie. I just want a long stretch of games with Luka, Kyrie, Exum, and Lively. Don’t care who the 5th starter is.
Drummond at the deadline would be dream if he became available. Would be interested in Patrick Williams as well. Gotta wait and see what happens in Chicago
I’m glad to see Kleber back and have an immediate impact after being out for so long. Let’s hope he gets better with playing more games. He could be a solid backup.
That being said, the front court could certainly use some reinforcement. But I would rather look to find another young talent and let Chandler develop him alongside Lively. It’s unlikely but not impossible the Pistons would trade him, but I really like Jalen Duren. But there are probably others out there.
If you watch the games it’s quite obvious of Lively’s defensive impact. His attitude and hustle really stand out. If he can add a little more muscle while keeping the same energy and quickness he’ll really shine. Foul trouble will continue to keep him off the floor against elite matchups.
Offensively he fits perfectly with Luka. I think the most surprising aspect of his offensive game is his soft touch around the basket. He puts up these nice little quick hook shots. Expected him to be more of a dunk or nothing guy his rookie year. He’s also a decent passer out of PnR. Not Jokic like lol, but better than a lot of other bigs at his age.
He’s probably tied with Kyrie for our second most important player. Which is sort of sad considering he’s a rookie.
I do think we should try to upgrade the backup center spot but I don’t think it will happen. The team is asset poor and the smarter move is to wait till more picks become available to trade in the off-season. I think Kidd should experiment more with no center lineups, including using Omax as a small ball 5.
Truth is the Mavs screwed the pooch Lukas first few seasons in terms of rebuild. Brunson leaving for nothing is truly a franchise-defining mistake. This last off-season, despite being an improvement, isn’t enough to make up for past mistakes.
I’m convinced that we we healthy all year, we’d be 1st or 2nd in the west easily. The fact that we’re even at 24-17 with Luka, Kyrie, and Lively all missing a bunch of games is great. We gotta stop getting so mad and blaming Kidd for every loss. We don’t have a very deep team and we’ve been dealing with injuries, I think we’re fine and don’t need a trade
I think these numbers confirm and highlight the importance of having a viable backup for Lively because he is so important to our success this season. Injuries are going to happen and you have to prepare accordingly. Lively being our only viable center (appreciate Powell’s efforts but he is who he is…which is not good enough) is just asking for problem especially if he gets hurt as we have seen. We’re a completely different team when he plays.
with kleber back the mavericks might be in a decent spot with depth at center. Powell is a decent back up against smaller bigs, kleber as well. having lively start vs Powell makes a huge difference because he is a starting quality center and Powell isn’t put in a position where he needs to perform like a starting center. with biyombo being waived I would really like the mavericks to pick him up since he can be a good back up center and help with depth.
All this tells me is that the team needs to work on rebounding and defense, two big things that Lively brings. He may not grab every rebound, nor defend every drive to the basket, but he’s a presence, which is something we had missed in the past.
Before we go for a backup.. unless like it’s a no brained for basically nothing, I would like to see how maxi is doing. His shot may be hot and cold but he always played pretty good defense. Does he still have the foot speed to guard those big forwards that always seem to haunt us.
I don’t have anything to add except: we need up protect DLive’s ankles at all costs the rest of this season.
Importance does not equal replacement value.
Lively is far more easily replaceable than Luka or Kyrie.
It’s just that for a variety of reasons Mavs lack bigs, so missing Lively is more felt.
But if you were building a brand new team for just one year, absolutely no one would draft Lively before Luka or Kyrie.
1. No shit, Lively’s performance has surprised everybody.
2. Doesn’t change anything in terms of the backup — the Mavs need a functional backup just like before, except before they also needed a starter.
3. This is pointless to try to answer without the context of who are the available targets at what prices.
1. Not that much. He does what no one else on the roster can do. There’s an over lap between Kyrie and Luka’s skill set. But no one does what Lively does.
2. It could be the difference between home court advantage (4th seed) and a play in spot (7th seed).
3. They shouldn’t over pay. Also, need to find a player that’s better than Dwight but not better Lively so there’s a clear pecking order.
I’ve been saying all season, the idea of us needing a backup big is overstated. People are upset that when Lively is injured, our team looks much worse but, that’s how it goes with clear cut starters (even if he is a rookie).
We have backups but certainly Maxi, Powell and Holmes are not covering that impact. Injuries happen, backups will try, but they’re usually not going to cover the full impact of your starter (else we would have a clear cut starter before this). Signing Drummond or Biyombo to improve depth isn’t totally out of bounds but you have to keep expectations in check.
In that sense, overpaying is still overpaying and we really shouldn’t do it for a random piece that is probably not a part of our long term plans. Every other GM knows we want another big and the price will reflect accordingly. Making disciplined trades and taking advantage, if a good option for a good price becomes available, should be how we’re looking to approach this.
We need a backup that’s available for something like Hardy and a second …..again something that won’t empty the coffers for next year. We won’t get much quality at that price but another big body is imperative at this “juncture” as Harp would say lol.
It certainly looks like he is the most important Mavs player, even though he is not even close to being 2nd best Mavs player. It is even more surprising if you take into account that he only plays half of the game. But it is less surprising if you know what are the biggest problems of this team, rebounding and rim protection which he brings.
I would try do get a starting level 4 that can also play 5 who is a good rebounder and rim protector. A package with THJ and possibly another non starter plus pick should do it. Mavs will be a better team even if added player doesn’t score as much as THJ does.
Tyson Chandler needed a Brendan Haywood. Same can be said about DLive. Who will be his Haywood?
These stats more so highlight the Mavs overall problem than Lively being awesome. If we look at the offensive and defensive 4 factors as league ranks for the Mavs (per Basketball-Reference):
Offensive:
* eFG%: 9th
* TOV%: 1st
* ORB%: 23rd
* FT/FGA: 17th
Defensive:
* eFG%: 21st (last 15 games 14th)
* TOV%: 11th
* DRB%: 28th
* FT/FGA: 6th
Rebounding is by far the Mavs biggest weakness. Defense has improved over the last 5 weeks or so. Additionally if DRB% improves then Defensive eFG% should improve as well since second chance points tend to have a higher eFG%. Additionally the Mavs could also give up fewer FT/FGA than they already do though this improvement may be lost in the noise. Even a couple more offensive rebounds per game would be a huge swing. Look at the game today. Plus a bigger defensive body would help with rim protection.
Lively helps a lot by being the only competent center/big body on the roster. But Lively is 19. He isn’t big enough yet. He got pushed around by bigger players several times this season. He’s going to miss games or get in foul trouble early. The question is who is even available with the assets the Mavs have to address this? Or do the Mavs live with this flaw and shore up everything else on both ends a la peak Warriors? Kleber’s return will help with lineup flexibility as he can play with pretty much any current lineup or any trade candidate but the Mavs need more to move the needle.
Part of it is Lively, who is fantastic. The other part is just having a center lol.