Key thoughts from a Timberwolves-heavy NBA All-Star Weekend + the Wolves’ shot profile

Key thoughts from a Timberwolves-heavy NBA All-Star Weekend + the Wolves’ shot profile

Hello and welcome into another episode of lock down wolves today on the show some quick thoughts on All-Star Weekend how I did on my bets that I talked about on Friday show Pretty good overall we’ll go through all that here real quick at the top want to talk a little about the

Wolves offense here as we head into the second half of the Season kind of teen up some topics for the next few days as we lead into the unofficial second half of the year we’ll also peek ahead and what that looks like what the upcoming schedule looks like for Minnesota here

Over the next week or so it’s all coming welcome in you are lock on wolves you are locked on Timberwolves your daily Minnesota Timberwolves podcast part of the locked on podcast Network your team every day hello and welcome to the lock wolves podcast part of the lockdown podcast

Network your team every day my name is Ben Beacon I’m the host of lock on wolves happy Monday everybody and hopefully had a fantastic Allstar Weekend it was uh there was some stuff we could talk about here on the show today certainly a lot of wolves flavor

To the weekend we’ll talk about all that lots to get to on the show here on this Monday uh Monday President’s Day here in the US a big thank you off the top for making lockon wolves your first listen every day lock on wolves is free and available everywhere including YouTube

As well as all of your favorite audio platforms wherever you listen to podcasts you can find lockon wolves you can also watch on the lockdown Sports Minnesota app on both Roku and Amazon Fire TV and you can follow an X at lockon T wolves and also at B Beacon with 2bs 2 e

Cken all right road map here for today I do want to talk about Allstar Weekend uh clearly the game was you know I guess it’s what we kind of expected on Sunday and uh but some wolves related topics here it’s relevant I talked a lot about

You know my picks on Friday I did fairly well with those picks I want to get to those I want to look at the Wolves offense which still is kind of middle of the pack at best and I want to talk about a couple different things related to their shop profile and Anthony

Edwards specifically um and it’ll kind of tee up some full shows here Tuesday Wednesday Thursday the Wolves don’t play till Friday night so lots to talk about this week as we head into the really what’s the final third of the Timber rolles schedule they’re like 67% exactly of the

Way through their regular season schedule so even though the All-Star break is you know The Unofficial Midway point I want to talk about um what like as we sit here right now what’s the Wolves offense look like among other things over the next few days and then

Lastly we’ll talk a little about the Wolves upcoming schedule here at the end of the show all right let’s talk Allstar Weekend first of all on Friday night in the rising stars tournament if you will nowadays I picked team jayen who actually I believe had the longest odds

They were like plus I don’t know 220 or something um over actually no it was like over plus 300 I think at FanDuel and I I thought team jayen was the pick I thought they had the second best roster and therefore the best odds at

The you know the best um in my opinion was the best bet I should say they had I think I said they had the second best roster they had the longest odds and therefore in my mind it was the best bet to pick team J and they did end up

Winning uh so hopefully you you took that on Friday so um and that roster by the way I I don’t know why they had the longest odds they had Chet hren and Jaylen Williams who are I don’t know two of the best four rookies in the League this

Year if not two of the best three rookies in the League this year they also had Benedict Maan who’s a fantastic player and then you know Walker Kessler some other guys too and uh you know I guess I shouldn’t say they had the longest odds I’m sure the team depth fft

The G the g-league team had longer odds actually um I also like you know a lot of people liked uh Team pow because they had wanyama and pmy I would have said that that was probably the best overall roster um even over team Tama with Paulo Jaden Ivy Keegan Murray scoot Henderson

Etc uh but anyway all that to say I won that or I I did win that bet and I I had that bet correctly on Friday on Saturday I had for the skills I had team Pacers who also were the longest odds at plus 190 and I was right they also won on

Saturday now that was a bit of a of a disaster I don’t I I like the three events for the skills challenge like they went to here a couple years ago but the obstacle course thing was really tough you know so many guys I think like I don’t know what four

Of the first six guys went the wrong direction for the uh the um I’m blanking on the right term but basically the cones you going through the Defenders weaving through Defenders with with crossovers uh ant obviously kind of mailed it in tried to shoot three lefted three-pointers that was disappointing it

It just was like ant being ant fine but like I don’t know try and win that game right like or try and win that that competition um and they ended up you know it ended up being a tie between team uh Pacers and um and uh what was the other oh my

Goodness uh Team Allstars and then team Pacers ends up winning in the half court challenge so I got that one too at plus 190 so two for two off off the top and the three and I didn’t by the way I’m skipping the D well actually no I’ll

Give Dunk Contest thoughts here a second Three-Point Contest um I I said carony towns was the best bet I thought if it was all even odds I would have taken halberton but those were my top two to win and both of them finished with 26 they were two of

Four players that finished with tied at 26 after the first round of the eight Shooters but only three got to advance so when they had the shoot off uh halberton got knocked out and cat was in the finals and ended up losing in the final round of course Dame Lillard

Repeating two um you know back-to-back Champion I think the fourth ever or something NBA history so I had two of the top four two of the four that tied for the best score in the first round were my two favorite picks uh Beasley was okay I think he finished with 20 um

He was my third pick based on you know if you if you’re looking at the odds at FanDuel so I did okay you know like I feel good about who I had picked I still think cats odds were way too long for this um obviously didn’t get that one

Right the dunk contest I picked McClung to win he did win um that was a tough one to bet on because he was like minus 375 and Jaylen Brown actually had a had a higher first round score than him but McClung finished with the only perfect

50 of the night and I thought his dunk that got the poor score was arguably his best dunk the one where the self kind of you know throws it to himself or releases the ball completely catches it in midair while facing away from the rim

That was crazy um you know a decent Slam Dunk Contest like how many LaVine like everybody talks about the dunk contest being back right like that’s always this big talking point this big controversy if you will but how many dunk contests are truly memorable period throughout history right like uh MJ MJ Dominique

Obviously so there’s like three there um you know Timber rolls fans remember U Isaiah Ryder sure but like I don’t know that that’s like one of the memorable ones for people LaVine and Gordon every obviously Vince Carter in the 90s so there’s what seven six dunk contests that people would say like everybody

Remembers those if you’re an NBA head like you remember these dunk contests they’re the ones you always watch in NBA ATV re you know replays them every year you can go watch them on YouTube and people do because they were they were seminal moments in dunk contest in

All-Star history but like you know maybe Blake Griffin jumping over the car which was kind of when the crazy gimmick started it’s not exactly a couple the Dwight Howard Nate Robinson ones I guess but like how many iconic dunk contests have there really been this wasn’t too

Bad overall um Jaylen Brown was good and kudos to him for doing it as an actual All-Star uh so that was uh that was fun and mclung won and he should have won I thought it was I thought it was a decent dunk contest and I don’t want to the

Three-Point Contest has pretty much always been my favorite except for those LaVine years because there’s just a little more Intrigue and um usually more suspense to it it’s a you know there’s just there’s just more substance to it as well versus the dunk contest but anyway I thought it was pretty good

Final thoughts I’m not going to spend much time on the actual All-Star game on Sunday oh and the and the Steph Sabrina thing was great um you know I’m not gonna that was that was a lot of fun I I I should finish my thought I’m not going

To comment on the commentary that everybody’s talking about from Kenny and Reggie during and after that but uh the it was obviously great that they did it it was awesome that both Sabrina and Steph finished with 26 or more like Sabrina would have advanced to the final

In the um in the uh the NBA portion of the actual Three-Point Shootout so really cool and excited to see where they take that if they expand it further to like a true NBA versus WNBA are they’re gonna have four shooters from each or whatever you know obviously everybody talking about Caitlyn Clark

Beating it next year um really cool that they did that in the All-Star game Sunday you know highest ever combined score in the first half first time that 200 points was broken the final score is what 206 no 211 to 186 um I’m like I I’m really conflicted

On this part of me wants to be get off my lawn like play a little defense and the other part of me is like it’s exhibition but can we find like I promise this isn’t like oh they play defense in the 90s but like even when Kevin Garnett was

In the All-Star game like early 2000s it was both right like it usually was 150s 140s and there was a lot of alley-oops in the first half and then the whole second half was fairly competitive with defense and it doesn’t need to be locked down like getting a stance defense but

Put up a little bit of um resistance and make it a game you know like that that would make this I don’t know how you quote a quot fix that like and that’s basically what Adam Silver said in the past like how does he legislate defense

Um I like the East West I like that they went back to that I also like the El amending that they did you know the last few years I’d be cool if they brought that back but kept it is east west I don’t know I I really don’t know how to

Quote unquote fix it other than getting guys in there and and the crazy thing is like the young guys don’t necessarily want to Anthony Edwards like correctly you know we talked about this last week he was a little too cool for school when he got in the game that’s just kind of

How a plays things right like that’s this isn’t the sort of thing well he is a showman um if it’s not like a true like people aren’t competing it’s hard for him to lock in it just is and you know a did very little in this game um he

Played uh like six eight minutes in the first half like four or five in the second half played only 13 minutes total the third least on the west now carony towns tied for the most minutes with 28 and they had a game high 50 points which

I think like 25 of them or 26 of them were in the second half um Dame had 39 and one the MVP for the winning East Squad cat had 50 for the game and got up 35 shots Jaylen Brown had 23 attempts Dame had 26 nobody

Else had more than 20 in this game and Kat had 35 no one else on the west roster had more than 17 shot attempts cat was four for 13 from three had a couple of Crazy Ones late he had a a couple of nice kind of

Um like Rock the Baby like reverse dunks uh you know double-handed reverse he missed a messed up a a between the legs attempt late in the fourth quarter fun to see cat get shots up and you know those are those personalities right ant is too cool for school those situations

Cat is happy to try hard for the big number and there’s nothing wrong really with either of those approaches um it’s just funny that you have two guys that obviously get along and are great teammates but they have such different approaches and most of the guys in this

Game are somewhere in the middle right most of them are like they know when to turn it on and turn it off they know how to play the game and Cat’s like I want to go hard and ant’s like I don’t want to go at all and like it’s just you know

Whatever um real interesting and of course the East ended up running away with it Dame hit two half court shots uh he attempted 23 threes in this game he just nuts um so anyway that’s my it wasn’t even really a soap box because I don’t have a strong take on it other

Than it’d be cool if it if there was a little more defense played just a little bit of resistance I’m not asking for it to be you know 105 101 final I’m just you know let’s uh let’s put up a bit of resistance I think that would make this

A little bit more fun I’m still thinking of like Kobe Shak Ali oops and um you know watching I don’t know all those guys the Gary pton Jason kid years uh like basically right before LeBron came into the league uh Lebron was had a miked up moment talking about his rookie

Year in the league with all those guys I think his first all year I believe was 05 the year after the Wolves went to the Conference Finals um was I believe the first year LeBron was an All-Star so anyway um it was fun you know the the weekend

Itself was fun overall there’s certainly been less climactic more anti-climactic All-Star weekends in the past um so it would have been not a whole lot of Chris Finch like not that there’s a whole lot of Coach attention but there wasn’t really any miked up um content that I

Saw at least on on TNT so a little disappointed on that front but uh fun overall good to see the Wolves fingerprints all over the weekend even uh you know even though they weren’t really talked about all that much um on uh on the national broadcast all right

It’s all I got on that topic I do want to get into some wolves offense stuff we’ll hit some of that here to tee up the rest of the week conversation here on the show and then we’ll also get into um into the upcoming schedule too so all that is upcoming next

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Fire TV channels app all right uh let’s talk Timberwolves offense so this is this is I’m gonna kind of just jump right into this and I want to spend more time later this week I guess I’ll I’ll I’ll explain what I mean by this so I do want to go

Into some context for the Wolves offense and basically look at the last several I’ll probably expand it to conference finalists so like essentially the final four if you will of the NBA for the last decade or something like that basically back to the you know the um the real

We’ll call it the three ball Revolution right when the offenses started to explode and the three-point attempts went crazy because if you go back 15 years offens has look nothing like they do now I mean go back six years they don’t really look anything like they now

But in terms of shot profiles go back about 10 years I want to um go back through the League’s final four of the past decade or so look at where those offenses were ranked when it was all said and done where those defenses were ranked and what the offensive shot

Profiles look like of the teams that were in the final four and compare that to the Timberwolves and then secondarily talk about turnover rate because that’s the big outlier for Minnesota they’re so good at basically everything else um rebounding could be a bit up and down free throw rate defensively or I should

Say opponent free throw rate uh on the defensive end of the floor from Minnesota can be an issue but the most consistent problem all season has been turnovers so I want to look into that too so the the quick the quick look at this right now is that sitting here right now

Minnesota is the number 15 offense according to cleaning the glass basketball reference has them 17 of course cleaning the glass takes out garbage time so they have Minnesota as the exact middle of the pack 15th ranked offense and of course the number one ranked defense no matter where you

Look a full two and a half points better than the second ranked Cleveland defense in terms of points per 100 possessions just 108.5 points per 100 possessions for Minnesota so that also by the way means they have the number two net rating in the entire league behind only

Boston okay and they’re a half Point by the way in net rating better than Oklahoma City who’s number three but specific to the offense the offensive shop profile it’s been a little while since we’ve talked about this probably back around close to Christmas almost two months ago since

I’ve really dug into the shop profile but there’s something at cleaning the glass that they call uh Loca location effective field goal percentage and what that is is if the team shot The League average field goal percentage from every location what would their effective field goal percentage be which

Essentially it just gives you the idea of the efficiency of a team’s shot profile so in other words are they shooting more threes are they shooting more free throws I believe it’s even weighted toward Corner threes being more valuable because they’re closer than above the Break 3es

Um I think it’s a pretty interesting tool now if you sort these teams by location effective field goal percentage the top 10 does not look anything like I shouldn’t say it doesn’t look anything like there isn’t like an overwhelming Trend towards these being the top 10 offenses for a couple reasons one

Obviously defense matters well no sorry I guess it doesn’t correlate to the standings it also doesn’t correlate to off so that’s one point it also doesn’t correlate to I mix my points there it also doesn’t correlate to the top 10 offenses directly so um you still got to

Make your shots right obviously so like for instance the number one team in location effective field goal percentage is uh is Cleveland but they’re 17th in offense because they’re actually not that good of a shooting team even if their shot selection is good they also don’t get to the line very often right

So that that matters but Minnesota still it still is a good thing to be in the top 10 like I mean for instance um let’s see what’s another good what’s a good example the other side of this uh I mean actually Indiana’s offense hasn’t been all that great there’s a couple good

Examples in there uh Milwaukee’s one right like they have the second best offense or I’m sorry the Fifth Fifth ranked offense oh Indiana I’m sorry my eyes skipped the line again Indiana’s third in offense they’re also third in location effective field goal percentage Milwaukee’s fifth in location effective

Field goal percentage they’re fifth in offense so there is some correlation it’s just maybe not as perfect as you expect well Minnesota’s a good example of that they’re seventh in terms of their location effective field goal percentage their shot profile is solid it’s top 10 League wide but they’re just

15th in offense why is that well they’re 28th in turnover rate they turn the ball over way too much in terms of frequency Minnesota shoots the seventh most Corner threes in the league and the eighth most Rim attempts they’re also fifth uh fifth in in uh short mid-range

Shots which is between four and 14 feet right all those um I guess the the ant shots from the side that aren’t you know he kind of has that in between shot he likes to shoot Jade McDaniel shoots a ton from that range the Conley floaters um Kyle Anderson shooting between four

And 14 feet the wolves are fifth in attempts for that range but they’re 28th in non-c corner three-point attempts and 26th in Long mid-range attempts which means that they don’t actually shoot that many long mid-range shots which is a little bit surprising because it feels

Like an shoots a lot of those the non- Corner three thing isn’t a major deal because they’re so good at corner threes and the guys that do shoot above the break threes are really great at making them Alexander Walker has turned into a very good above the break three-point

Shooter obviously cat Nas is very good from there uh Conley is too they just don’t the volume actually isn’t all that high in terms of non- corner threes for Minnesota in terms of accuracy they’re second and above the break three-point percentage they’re fifth in corner three-point percentage

Their middle of the pack in both Rim attempts and short mid-range so they’re getting those attempts off but they’re actually not shooting the ball that well at The Rim or within or in that four to 14 foot range the other thing that’s pretty alarming here and this is kind of

Where I wanted to spend an extra moment is long mid-range jumpers I talked about the frequency not being that high but it’s still a little higher than Chris Finch would like it the accuracy is also about they’re 28th in Long mid-range jumper percentage 37.6% as a team and I want to highlight

Anthony Edwards because that’s a number that we know has ticked up for him now he shooed every year he shot more long mid-range jumpers each actually he shot a little bit more in his rookie year than he did his second year but in general it’s traded upward right the

Trend line is up the percentage is also trending up from that point on the floor LA or that part of the floor long mid-range jumpers last year is about 35% this year he’s a little over 36% 36% is not good 36% would be slightly below average for three-pointers but for long

Mid-range jumpers that’s not palatable I mean Kevin Durant for comparison is around 50% typically with long mid-range jumpers that’s a big difference from 36% to 50ish percent even Kobe now late in his career Kobe struggled from deep but Kobe would be another guy like you know without dragging Michael Jordan into the

Conversation Kobe would be kind of the other long mid-range jumper artist that you think of whose game footwork closely somewhat resembles Anthony Edwards or I should say ant resembles his game in some ways his best seasons were like in the low 40% like 44 is% 43 is perc from

Longm range which is not a good percentage for that shot but a lot of the time like go to like 04 when the Lakers beat the wolves in the Conference Finals Kobe was under 38% from long mid-range it was still better than ants spark in fact ants current long midrange

Jumper percentage would be worse than every season Kobe had except for his 19-year-old season his year in the league and then his final three after the Achilles tear and you know things were obviously not the same for Kobe but all the way up until 2013 so one season

In his first basically 20 would you say that Kobe had a worst long mid-range jumper percentage than Anthony Edwards this year and to this point it’s ant’s best all I’m saying is the Wolves still need to shoot less Long midrange jumpers and ant needs to make more of them if

He’s going to shoot him that’s got to be like I would rather he spent his summer working on his three-point shot but if he’s going to take take those mid-range jumpers he’s got to make them at a higher clip and uh then it becomes like nobody’s telling Kevin Durant to not

Shoot 18f Footers because he shoots them at a ridiculous percentage he’s shooting mid-range you know long mid-range jumpers at a clip that some guys shoot within five feet of the basket it really is almost like a layup for guys like Kevin Durant Devin Booker Chris Paul right it’s not that way for

Anthony Edwards yet now more on this the rest of this week we will talk more shot profile Etc and then I want to talk again the context of the Wolves offense and their team profile their offense and then their defensive efficiency in the context of the last decade of uh of

Contenders for the title all right let’s close by taking a peek at the Wolves upcoming schedule we’ll do that here next uh to end the show today’s episode of lock wolves is brought To Us by our friends at Nissan are you the kind of driver that likes to

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The Nissan Armada and go find your next big adventure shop nissanusa.com all right uh let’s talk upcoming schedule for the Wolves I’m going to throw it up here if you’re watching on YouTube so Minnesota’s back in action at home on Friday night against the Bucks today’s Monday we’ve still got four days

Before we get wolves basketball back they are hosting the Milwaukee Bucks who they uh really dominated a lard L and uh Chris Middleton L Bucks team uh a couple of weeks ago in Milwaukee now this is in Minnesota it is a 900m central tip it

Was added as an ESPN game so the wolves do not tip off till 9:00 p.m. on Friday night and unfortunately it’s the front night of a backtack the following evening the Wolves stay at Target Center to take on the Brooklyn Nets at 800m obviously a very winnable game and this

Is actually the start of a seven game home stand for Minnesota before they then turn around and go on a six-game road trip which by the way is followed by a four-game homeand and seven of eight at home overall so yes the wolves have a bunch of home games remaining but

They also have a bunch of back-to-backs they’ve only played I think three back back-to-back sets maybe four to this point well guess what they get two right away coming out of the break Friday Saturday then they’re off Sunday Monday then they play Tuesday Wednesday then later that same week they

Play Sunday Monday back toback at home so three back Tob backs as part of the seven game home stand so that’s the downside of the home stand and then their first two Road games are also a back-to-back March 7th and 8th at Indiana at Cleveland and then they have

Another back-to-back that’s a road home one against Utah and Denver that’s a rough one at Salt Lake City at altitude and then the next night back home to play the Denver Nuggets for just the second time this season that’s a severe I don’t know where Denver’s coming from

Before that but it’s got to be a travel disadvantage a rest disadvantage for Minnesota um that’s going to be really tough but anyway more in the near term here the Bucks game’s obviously tough walk’s gonna want to get to off to a much better start of the second half of

The season um they’re three and seven I believe under Doc Rivers so far so wolves bucks Friday night will be tough then Brooklyn San Antonio Memphis all very winnable games that Memphis game the following Wednesday is also an ESPN game and then Sacramento we haven’t seen Sacramento since uh what the weekend or

The week of Christmas they they won at the Kings right before Christmas and remember they were beat by them in that in-season tournament game way back in late November so we haven’t seen Memphis now in almost or will or excuse me Sacramento in two months they play that

On Friday March 1st then the Clippers and Portland so this is a home stand that they really should go at worst four and three hopefully 5- two I think that’s completely reasonable and then the road trip at Indiana at Cleveland which is a back-to-back and then at La where they play the Lakers

And Clippers with the day off in between and then two games in Utah that’s a rough road trip all really difficult games um they all could be playoff teams or play in teams probably not Utah but uh they’re at least still in the conversation I mean that five-game road

Trip if you go 3-2 or excuse me six game road trip if you go 4-2 you feel great if you go three and three you’re probably okay with that too so it’s a really really challenging schedule upcoming for Minnesota there’s no question about that um now that middle

Part of this seven game home stand Brooklyn San Antonio Memphis Sacramento or well really Brooklyn San Antonio Memphis you got to win those three to kind of make you feel okay about the Milwaukee Sacramento Clippers games all mixed in there but it’s time for minnes to really kind of cement this home court

Advantage they’ve not done quite as well at home here of late as they did early in the season and the Wolves should be you know uh knock on wood at at full strength here coming out of the out of the All-Star Break um or at least you

Know not have a whole lot of dinged up guys you know ant only played 13 minutes Sunday cat did play 28 but now they’ve still got four days off before um before they have another game so should be a fun a fun stretch at Target Center

Coming out of the break the rest of this week I talked about this already well plenty of bigger picture stuff Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday we’ll preview the game against the Bucks get ready for finally some more Timber rules basketball that you know it’ll be eight days after the last time they played so

Looking forward to that on Friday night all right that’s all we have for you today here on the show a big thank you for making lock on wolves your first listen every day of course this show is free and available everywhere including YouTube as well as all of your favorite

Audio platforms you can also watch on the lockdown Sports Minnesota app on Roku and Amazon Fire TV and you can follow an X at lockone wolves and also at B Beacon with two B’s to e cken of course the lockon Wolves podcast is part of the lock on podcast Network

Remember the lockon network is your local experts on all the biggest stories once again I’m Ben Beacon this is the lockd Wolves podcast and we’ll catch you next time

NBA All-Star Weekend had a heavy Minnesota Timberwolves presence and was not without intrigue. Ben Beecken (@bbeecken) breaks down the events of the weekend, including checking in on his bets from Friday’s show. Also, a look at the Wolves’ offensive shot profile for the season so far and where it could be adjusted as the Wolves head into the final third of the schedule. Lastly, a peek at the upcoming schedule for Minnesota.

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FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN)