NBA Contender Rankings: Why Lakers & Warriors can win title, Suns & Thunder threats | Hoops Tonight

NBA Contender Rankings: Why Lakers & Warriors can win title, Suns & Thunder threats | Hoops Tonight

All right welcome to Hoops not here at the volume happy Wednesday everybody I hope all of you guys are having an incredible week as you guys know on Monday we sat down with s Vini to do our Contender rankings and we went all over the place we ended up talking for almost

Three hours we hit like 17 different teams yesterday we ran part one of that list which included a contenders one through five on my list as well as Sam’s agreements and disagreements and then I went through the four teams with 31 plus wins that I don’t think have a chance to

Win the title so if you missed that that’s on our feed from yesterday in today’s show we’re running part two of that show with sbini we’re going to be hitting my number six through number 13 on my contenders list as well as Sam’s agreements and disagreements we also got

Into some tactical stuff some stuff that we would potentially see in matchups should these teams make deep playoff runs lot of good Hoops talk in there for you you guys know the drill before we get started subscribe to our brand new YouTube channel mean a lot to me if you

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My Twitter feed _ Json LT for the film threads that I do in the mornings as well as show announcements and then keep dropping mailbag questions in those YouTube comments so we can keep hitting them throughout the season and the last but not least before we get started have

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Rankings number six the Phoenix Suns for me sure yeah the I you know what’s funny I Am Lower on on the Mavs uh trade deadline moves than you are in the sense that like I don’t necessar I guess you haven’t actually said anything about their deadline moves but I thought Phoenix’s deadline moves

Were smart because they actually brought players into the equation that I could see playing significant roles for instance like I think there’s a one player well so I I think I think there’s a universe where aadia at Center lineup could have Royce O’Neal and dadus young

Although he was more of a buyout he was a buyout but like still like I could see like to me Royce O’Neal is probably in their closing five which is what makes like whereas with the Mavs it’s like I would probably rather have I’m we we’ll talk about the maps

Let it gets a little bit tougher so like I I you know it’s interesting because they were the two teams that I thought behaved most desperately at the deadline in terms of like going to to like to to to make these like moves on the margin

4 no and behind the scenes Phoenix was like really aggressive trying to find a lot of options for 440 minutes of Bradley Beal Devon Booker and Kevin Durant this year 125 offensive rating 113 defensive rating they’ve held up well enough on the glass for it not to

Be a problem um I like the Kat Center look for specific kind of like like a curveball for a short stretch uh I actually thought it was smart for them to go away from it against Sacramento uh when they won last week I like what I’m seeing from Phoenix

Overall I do get concerned though not to bring up the injury thing but like they that Beal and Booker are both susceptible to these like soft tissue injuries which always freaked me out a little bit because like I think they need to be really humming on offense

When they get to the postseason for this to work and rhythm is going to be a huge part of that and like Beal just went down with another hammy and so I do get concerned about him getting back and actually getting into rhythm in time for

It to matter cuz things really took off for the Suns this year when Beal was consistently in the lineup and so I do believe in that group um I actually think they’re just a much better version of last year’s Sons team it’s just I’m concerned about whether or not they’ll

Be in Rhythm at the right time where do you have Phoenix at I had Phoenix at8 largely because of the injury question uh Beal’s continued health is concerning Kevin Durant has a history of soft soft tissue injuries at this point that needs to be accounted for on some level and Yousef nurkic uh

Has played at most 56 games in the previous Four Seasons he is currently at 52 uh we will see if he can stay healthy for the whole way I think nurkic has been an utterly like he has to be out there for 30 minutes plus for them or or else it gets

Really really hard for them I agree with you in terms of the KD closing at the five lineups from time to time can be really valuable but in the Western Conference where you have to deal with Carl towns Rudy goar combination in the front Court you have to deal with

Nicolea yic in the front Court I think that it’s going to be very difficult for them to not have nurkic on the court I mean how would you even feel about a Lakers series against the Suns if they tried to go small with KD against like

Anthony Davis at the five like I I think that’s probably a bad idea for the Sons because I think it’d be putting too much onto KD’s shoulders just physically in terms of wear and tear uh over the course of a full series in my opinion so I really think nkit is essential and

I worry about his health a little bit Beal as you mentioned continues to go down here and there with injuries they’ve only played 440 minutes together this season and yet when they have been playing together they have been phenomenal this year like those lineups are fantastic Grayson Allen this year

Grayson Allen is shooting 5148 89 this season Grayson Allen is going to get so much money this off season that uh like he’s the guy that people keep not bringing up in free agency as like an option for some of these teams Grayson Allen is having like the best like walk year marginally

Compared to like where everybody else was entering the season compared to where they are now in the NBA like he’s averaging 13 points a game on 51 4889 in a role where they desperately need him night after night after night to perform and succeed okay let’s talk about the questions here

Like their closing lineup it sounds like you think is Booker Katie Beal Grayson Allen and Royce O’Neal or nurkic depending on the matchup for Roy or Grayson yeah I think I I think I’d go with Roy instead of Eric Gordon in their um in their small ball lineups I think that when

They I think they will have bigger looks where they go Royce instead of Grayson too um Yousef nurkic for as much as he gets criticized for his defense like he’s had some moments this year like I thought he was awesome down the stretch against Sacramento the other night had

Like several huge plays down he’s one of those guys kind of like jic where like when he’s really active with his hands especially like on the ball handler like when he’s not sitting back passively but rather more aggressive he can actually be pretty impactful because he’s a smart

Player I actually get more concerned about him against like you know why I think he’s such a bad matchup against the Lakers is like LeBron can run pick and roll against him whereas so many other teams can switch it he can get downhill against him he can’t play against the Thunder

Like Point Blank like the Thunder would just like completely cause all sorts of issues for him uh in Space over the course of a seven game series but you know do you think that the KD Booker Beal combination is just good enough to beat the Thunder like I think that’s a

Completely reasonable opinion because they actually can go to the KD at the five lineup against the Thunder and not get blitzed the defensive class so it it’s the suns are interesting the suns are a team that I’ve really uh come to enjoy when they’ve been fully healthy this season uh I had the

Suns below the Mavs in the Timberwolves at this point and then also the Thunder I’m assuming right um I I’m realizing I have the Thunder or I have the Suns at seven suns at seven okay gotcha get in on the action with DraftKings Sportsbook an official sports

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Actually kind of sneaky high on and I had to really temper myself because there was a there was a version of this list where they were higher and it’s the New York Knicks and and here’s my reasoning I think if a couple of things go right for them and that’s Mitchell Robinson coming

Back from his ankle injury which apparently there’s some optimism coming out of his camp that it’s a possibility if Mitchell Robinson can come back from his injury if Julius Randle can come back and get in rhythm in time for the playoffs I think they’re one of the most physically imposing teams in the

League the the numbers coming out of their core three are insane 285 minutes of Rand Brunson and anobi 129 offensive rating 104 defensive rating and a 56% rebound percentage and before anybody brings up the talent stuff I think personally Jaylen Brunson is a fringe Superstar

Type of guard I like I think he is so so so good I think he’s let me put it this way I think he’s closer to like what people think Dame is than like the Donovan Mitchell tier in my opinion like I I think he is I think Jaylen Brunson is freaking awesome

And I think if you give him a truly physically imposing team that can defend at an elite level that can rebound at an elite level and as long as Julius Randall doesn’t piss down his leg when he gets to the playoffs I think they have that type of potential am I too

High on the Knicks what do you feel about the Knicks the Knicks were my clear third team in the East for sure I had them a little bit lower in the grand scheme of the league I had them ninth I have a couple of teams in the west ahead of

Them still but we’re not too far off in terms of where we are a you have them seven I have them ninth uh I am generally with you that this construction of this roster really accentuates Jaylen Brunson and makes him to the point where look I would have Donovan Mitchell

In this tier but I I don’t mind your take there that like he is within that Lillard Mitchell grouping of players at this point he really just kind of is he is a fantastic fantastic player in terms of being able to get to his spots he decelerates exceptionally well he’s

Constantly on balance he has elite elite elite touch he’s a genuine three-level scorer in a way that you need three-level scorers to consistently keep Defenders off of their toes now how much do you trust him in isolation versus without a ball screen uh the only reason I say that is because

I don’t know if they have another guy on this team that can score without a ball screen right now that’s my one concern about this everything is so tied to what jayen can do off defensively being able to create separation being able to make the offense

Work what do they do if an opposing team you know I’m trying to think of like in the West for instance right like if an opposing team is just like [ __ ] it we’re gonna throw Kawai on him and like just go okay like let’s make this work or the

Nuggets throw kcp on him and say let’s go crazy and like completely shut it down on top of it teams are going to attack him on defense that’s the reality uh the Cavs last year had an easy spot to hide Jaylen Brunson on and tibs did that immaculately well uh they spent

Time using the Levert aoro etra grouping uh at the three where they’d space that guy into the corner using like an attacking help Defender and they spent time with Brunson using him as like a rest Defender basically to get him a blow to be able to get some uh get

Some like active rest on the court basically uh the heat also really gave him a lot of options to be able to hide on in a real way if they run into the Celtics there isn’t a place to hide uh if they run into the Bucks there are probably places

To hide I would say like you could hide him on Patrick Beverly and be fine you could hide him on Andre Jackson on Jay Crowder whoever uh but in the west I think there are much there are many fewer places to hide uh on Jaylen Brunson

So I agree with you on offense I think brunson’s a bit worse defensively than what Donovan Mitchell is and that causes a few issues for them schematically they are total ass kickers uh if they are fully healthy ogan anobi is a stud uh playoff potential player hasn’t really

Shown it yet in the playoffs but like I think think that that will come I think it will happen at the highest level uh like you said Mitchell Robinson is kind of the key for me I love Isaiah hartenstein I think he is again another one of the most like underrated

Impactful players across the entire league but they need 48 minutes of just being like total ass kickers on the glass not just 24 I think to be able to make a run honestly if they got placed into a buck Series right now I really might take them oh

Yeah well to put it clearly if they if they started tomorrow the Bucks aren’t sharp enough uh but the but for the record if they started tomorrow they start It’s Tricky but like I I look man like I I literally sit there and I think okay like if they’re healthy they have

Such a clear top five in the sense that it’s like like literally Dante D venzo has been one of the best spot up players in the league this year and and he’s a good point of attack Defender who brings physical ball pressure like yep like that Brunson Devan chenzo OG Julius Mitchell

Robinson that’s just a really good basketball team I I that’s an that’s an interesting thing to to put him against Milwaukee because Milwaukee is like one of those teams that’s just so far from their potential at this point but that to me is the case it’s like the case you

Know we talked about the Suns a minute ago if the Suns started their playoff run tomorrow they would have to beat Denver four times out of seven and then after that they would have to turn around and beat Minnesota four times after out of seven and then after that they’d have to

Turn around and beat what Oklahoma City probably four times out of seven and then after that or the Clippers or The Clippers yeah most likely the Clippers and then if they won that they’d have to turn around and most likely Beat Boston or somebody like that four times out of

Seven there’s just just in the Eastern Conference to your point they’re third like in in all likelihood if you’re ranking the team so so like it’s really like if the Bucks don’t materialize you physically bully the Bucks you you get it done then you go on and it’s like all

We have to do is Beat Boston and now we’re in the finals you know just it just seems like a more achievable they have a lot of ways they have a lot of ways to cause problems schematically from Milwaukee in that series you could throw OG and anobi onto Giannis you

Could use Julius Randall to guard uh Brook Lopez shooting in the corner whatever you want to do get late contests Etc you can also then use your big Isaiah hartstein Mitchell Robinson onto whoever the help Defender you know player is you know you can’t do it if

It’s Malik Beasley out on the court so they probably have to play Beasley in those circumstances but if you’re playing Beasley then you have a real schematic offensive advantage on the court so let’s say it’s Beasley you put uh honestly like I would I don’t know if

I would put Randle on them they run Beasley off of a lot of actions there there are different ways schematically that like you can really cause problems for them uh in terms of lineup constructions in terms of different things because you have the anobi factor now who can throw 30 minutes onto Yannis

And he won’t stop Giannis but he’s strong enough physical enough to at least think work slightly reduce is you know Effectiveness over the course of the series especially when you have a help Defender at the center position they waiting as well you can just get late contests on Brook Lopez 3s at that

Point and you’d be pretty comfortable I think if you’re the Knicks the more I talk about this the more I think I would take the Knicks in a series specifically against the bucks right now I think I would too but it’s only because of the fact that like

There’s still so much theoretical with the buck but then I feel bad saying that because like like literally the entire Nick’s front court is injured right now like all three guys so no I know like it’s all theoretical like everything about this exercise is I think you can

Run out of bodies though I think there could be a point where it’s like okay we have somebody that’s way too small to guard oan anobi on him right now like I think they present I I think they’re a difficult team to match up with physically and by the way Mitchell

Robinson we talked about the Evan Moy stuff Mitchell Robinson also just kicked their ass on the offensive glass in that series like like Mitchell Robinson is a real playoff mismatch problem for a lot of front lines in the league I I’m just really high I’m just really high on the

Knicks um no I’m 100% with you and by the way that could create a real just like possession issue because the Bucks never hit the offensive class like that’s your whole thing like they would really have to they’ve been a good defensive rebounding team this year they haven’t been a great defensive

Rebounding team this year uh they would really have to control the defensive glass in that series in order to win that series and and if they’re in rotation nonstop too like if like because if they can’t contain it the point of attack and Yannis and Brook are

Always in help then no one’s matched up on the backline so like thinking about it like offensively there you put Giannis on Julius Randall assuredly and then you have Brooke be the helpman and then what you’re then throwing like Andre Jackson Malik Beasley Damen Lillard on Jaylen and midd

And Middleton’s on OG and OG’s bigger and stronger than Middleton yeah they have a real look like again the Bucks have the two best players in that Series in my opinion uh that might be enough but the Knicks have real schematic advantages against the Bucks in a series that are interest Also

Let’s just let’s just call it what it is I think Jaylen brunson’s been a substantially better player this season than Dame I agree like I I agree with that wholehearted um but yeah at least two of the top three but yeah the Knicks are interesting to me I I just I I think

They’re I think they’re dangerous my number eight is the Los Angeles Lakers and this is my last team on the tier of teams that are missing traditional Championship benchmarks but you can see the pathway for them the case for the Lakers is pretty simple like I mentioned

Earlier they’re one of only five teams in the league that definitively have two of the top 20 players in the NBA they are top 10 in both halfcourt offense and defense that’s something that I’m sure a lot of people are not aware of with the Lakers they are also the third best

Clutch team in the league this year they’ve been really good on both ends of the floor there they have been like four different teams this year because like they when they W when they won the inseason tournament they were like this grinded out defensive minded team that

Just like strangled games into the mud and ran everything out of the post and then all of a sudden like now they’re like this like beautiful ball movement player movement five five out offense they’re like the best assist to turn over team in the league over the last 15

Games and fifth in offensive rating but they can’t guard anybody to save their lives and they have now with Jared Vander built out they literally don’t even have a single healthy point of attack defender on the roster so but like the case for the Lakers is simple Jared Vander Jared Vanderbilt comes back

He gets healthy he takes primary point of attack assignments the five out of which involves Jared Vanderbilt not standing in the corner but rather rather constantly moving as a screener and as a dble handoff guy and cutting to the basket and and basically they the the Lakers had turned Jared Vanderbilt into

A useful offensive player right before he got hurt he actually had like a bunch of double figure scoring games in a row uh and then the case would be is that the five out offense just achieves a Transcendent you know you know like just LeBron Anthony Davis cutting and moving

Without the basketball and Austin and DLo just making great decisions that the case for it but I do think it’s a long shot and I thought that their inability to bring in a legitimate two-way Athlete on the perimeter at the deadline was kind of the death Nell of their season

But I still think they have an outside shot and you can kind of see it and that’s why I have them at at number eight where do you have the Lakers I have the Lakers right now at number 11 it looks like which is still top half of the

League given the way they’re season is gone and they are 30 and 26 like pretty pretty high up I think is reasonable to say uh they’re what ninth in the west right now so you know to have them 11th in the league is saying a lot you it sounds like you think their

Closing lineup right now is Reeves Russell Vanderbilt LeBron when healthy is what you would go with when healthy I think you can get away with a lot of the like Vanderbilt like cutting moving constantly screening rolling everything like that a lot easier in the regular season than you can in the

Playoffs when teams will essentially just play off of him they will put the center on him and play off of him in the playoffs if you are uh if you have a second body to be able to do so like the nuggets will just use nicolea

Yic like in the middle of the court and play off of him right the Clippers would just use I think I would bet you the Clippers would put Kawai on ad and just use a v zubot like in the middle of the Court as the health Defender and just

Say Okay Jared run around do your thing like move around that’s fine uh we’ll just be here waiting for you at the rim and we’ll be here waiting for everybody else at The Rim as well I don’t think you can close with Vanderbilt I think Vanderbilt’s a

Valuable player for 20 minutes a game in the playoffs like he’s shown that before I just don’t think you can close with them I wonder if their best closing lineup is actually the three guards including Spencer dwy the case would be the fact that like like you’re just getting more just in as

Just a better basketball player right so like whatever you’re giving up in terms of Jared’s height and speed and and perimeter defense you’re just getting back elsewhere right that’s the case or or ruy like maybe it’s ruy if teams you know if ruy continues to knock down

Shots from the perimeter and you know teams feel like they have to guard him and ruy can match up you know physically with somebody it might be ruy actually like this is a wild thing to say but like I I kind of think their best lineup

Is going to be Reeves Russell ruy LeBron ad and that’s not yeah something that like wildly enthused about necessarily either um can they guard anybody at the point of attack if they run into the Mavs like can they defend either of Luca or uh Kyrie no I mean they can’t like for the

Record like what bothers me the most about it from a management perspective is this was abundantly clear as a fall as a flaw in the Nugget Series last year like they just they didn’t have it was like oh we don’t have anybody at the one two or three that had good size good

Athleticism and is a and is a plus player on both ends of the floor like they did not have a single player they had all offseason to figure it out they had all season to figure it out and they just literally did not even come up with

A single option as a matter of fact they ditch Dennis Schroeder which in my opinion like if the alternative was Gabe Vincent I’d rather have Dennis Schroeder so like like it just it I I don’t understand why they never addressed it but I mean that said like here’s the

Thing why is it such a big deal for the Lakers and not for the bucks and I understand that the Bucks have a better record but the Bucks have also played a substantially easier schedule and are playing in a conference with a lot of teams at the bottom where you can pile

Up some easier wins I actually think in bigger games this year this the Lakers have actually fared about as well as Milwaukee has um so like that’s the thing that that that would be my counter to that case is like why are we giving Milwaukee that leeway but not the Lakers

Like why is it that we go like oh Dam and Yannis what if they just figure it out but we can’t just say LeBron James and Anthony Davis and a bunch of offensive skill can’t figure it out you know what I mean because the Bucks have Brook Lopez as an interior Defender uh

You know mixed with their ad defensively in Giannis as opposed to the Lakers who have you know throw the hands up and just like question marks like across the board on the interior is a secondary Defender uh Vanderbilt is a you know fantastic fantastic Defender I don’t mean to like completely disparage him

He’s a better point of attack like aggressive Defender than he is like he can scramble around and move but like he tends to be like pretty overaggressive I think in scramble situations and in help situations and like kind of gets lost a little bit so like to me that’s actually

The difference it’s like the backing of having Brook Lopez there in addition to their you know ad in y uh I think that they can it’s hard to say the Bucks can stand on defense when they haven’t stood on defense this year for a single second of the season but

Like I do think that schematically it makes a little bit more sense for them to be able to do so and they’re just more physical you know the the re one of the reasons like I think it’s like absolutely insane to have the Lakers ahead of the Thunder at this point

Is the way to beat the Thunder is to like be an absolute ass kicker going toward the rim uh finishing at the basket but also like crashing the offensive glass being aggressive that way do you know the worst offensive rebounding team is in the NBA right now the

Lakers the Los Angeles Lakers it it was so they could fix the transition defense they had a bad transition defense they had to stop crashing and they have to like that’s the thing against that’s actually like a big piece of why I think that the Thunder bring up the defensive

Rebounding side of it and maybe we should I assume you have the Thunder next um I have them at 10 actually but to me like to me they’re the tears are all kind of like jammed up um but okay we’ll talk about the thunder when we get

To the Thunder but um and I’ll kind of give my case on why the like defensive rebounding thing is worrisome but not like a potential death now um my My worry is just purely point of attack defense with with the Lakers and being able to construct two-way lineups

Like it’s actually quite similar to the Pelicans in a lot of ways uh the advantage the Lakers have and why they should be ahead of the Pelicans in my opinion is that they have Anthony Davis he is arguably the best two-way player in the league this season and Anthony

Davis should be top three in Defensive Player of the Year unequivocally so far I think he has been fantastic on that end beyond that LeBron has not been awesome on defense this year he’s been bad that like there have been moments where he’s brought it but like he’s not

Been great uh the advanced numbers because he pairs a lot of his minutes with ad are like pretty Okay and like forgiving to LeBron on that end but like generally so I think he has not been great and like attentive on that end Austin Reeves has not been very good on

Defense D’Angelo Russell has not been very good on defense ruie is you know still space cadet off the ball in a way that is concerning they just don’t have you know cam reddish can’t offense at a level that you need to in the playoffs Spencer Den witty sneakily I know that

It hasn’t been a great offensive season for him I actually thought that like he took on a lot of difficult assignments for Brooklyn this season like nobody paid attention to Brooklyn because they were like the most milk toast basketball team on planet Earth prior to the deadline but

Like Spencer for like people who said like Spencer was like quiet quitting the Nets he were like he had to fight every night against like an opposing team’s good offensive player when they were running out cam Thomas like he had to do more than what I think people gave him

Credit for now he hasn’t had a great offensive season I’m not going to sit here and like defend Spencer gwitty I do wonder if you know six foot six can at least like hold up in those matchups a little bit better certainly than Reeves and Russell had

Have I mean look it’s like damning with faint praise but like I think Spencer might actually be really helpful for them oh I love the pick way yeah I loved I loved Spencer to the Lakers just because he like at the very least for nothing he he brought in

A much much better athlete to the guard position than what the Lakers had and Lakers fans are all like Max Christie and cam reddish they’re all high on them I I think I think cam reddish is bad and I think that Max chy is too young so

Like I’m not as high on them I will say this like cuz you know I know that you have both the Thunder and the Mavs over the Lakers in large part because they don’t have guys to throw at those two uh perimeter options for both

Teams I am not as worried about that for one very simple reason I think LeBron James and Anthony Davis would rip through the Mavs in thunderf front lines for seven strike games I think they would just obliterate their front lines like I think it would be an an utter

Physical as kicking in the front lines in the same way that Shay and Jaylen and Luca and Kyrie would kick the ass of the Laker perimeter players and so like to me I think it’s I I think I think people are a little low on the LeBron ad Frontline as a playoff Duo

Just in general I think again you pointed it out LeBron James in the inseason tournament was the that was the only time he tried on defense this year I can state that as someone who’s watched the team very closely like the the Lakers are a lot better than their

Record would indicate as a matter of fact they went three and 10 in the first 13 games after the inseason tournament and blew a bunch of games against atrocious teams like truly bad teams that they just went out didn’t play hard and lost to so like I my my thing is

Like any case for the Lakers for me falls apart when they run into teams that are big and have the uh advantages on the on the perimeter so like for me the Lakers I get scared about Minnesota get scared about Denver I even get scared about the Clippers a little bit

Because of the fact that kawhai can bang with LeBron and because of the fact that zubach has always given ad issues just in terms of like shoving him under the basket getting offensive rebounds just hold like he just physically overwhelms ad sometimes so like to me I’m way more

Worried about the Lakers against the big teams like I I I you and I argued about this on the phone I would pick the Lakers over the Thunder and the Mavs in a playoff series I just think they’d obliterate them on the front line yeah we’ll talk about that when we get

To the Mavs I think the Mavs I think the Mavs front line is a little bit better than what uh people think so uh with the with the addition with one particular addition but look I agree with you that like people are way underrating the idea of Anthony Davis and LeBron James

Together there’s a reason that they were as successful as they were in the inseason tournament right like they can really play when they decide to turn it up for like a real you know set of games it’s going to be hard like dealing with those two is a handful they can really

Really defend when they want to defend and they are great offensively having to do it from where they’re gonna have to come from is my issue kind of similar to what you said with uh was it was it Phoenix I believe no we’re talking about the Knicks in

Terms of uh like third seed or whatever right like they’re going to have to do it against the Timberwolves and the goar ad or the goar towns front line then they’re probably gonna have to do it against you know whoever the hell finish is four five it could honestly be Denver

In the 4 five matchup so you might have to do it against Denver again and they have no shot against Denver in my opinion I agree and then you might have to do it against the Clippers where zubot is gonna go against them right like coming from the eight seed the

Seven seed is a substantial substantial problem I think for the Lakers uh again and again and again just having to get up for LeBron for two months straight of playoff basketball against teams where they don’t have a schematic Advantage because of how bad their perimeter point

Of attack defense is totally fair and by the way like I was as soon as they couldn’t address that dur like you know what’s funny I was actually way higher on them going after Bruce Brown than dejonte Murray this deadline like had they gotten Bruce Brown I would have

Been all over the Lakers because I just I just think that that I’m a big believer too this is one of my overarching basketball philosophies like talked about this earlier with Jamal Murray and like winning impact I’m a big believer in like even a limited player

That is great at a thing you’re bad at as a team can be monumentally important for your basketball team I I it’s just it’s just something I’ve seen time and time again it’s something that I I believe very strongly in so uh number nine and this

Is my last tier of teams these are all long shots to me so these are all teams were like I just I would be really surprised if they won but they have just like specific things there each of them have like that one big thing for me

That’s like yeah you can’t write them off because of this and number nine for me is the Golden State Warriors the reason is simple you can’t write them off because of Steph Curry he’s playing incredible as of late the Steph Curry Draymond Green Andrew Wiggins Jonathan kaminga forsome in 246 minutes this year

It has a 120 offensive rating and a 104 defensive rating they have been bad at rebounding but that’s been kind of an issue regardless of their lineups uh as of late their main concerns their late in games their offense just goes from being this like beautiful ball player

Movement to just Steph Curry running around chasing his own shot which I think I think is as much as I love Steph and as as much as I love Steve curage I think it’s bad process I think they I think they I think that has actually led

To diminishing returns in a lot of ways and I think they have more options than what they’ve demonstrated also I I’m higher on their defense defensive issues that they’ve had as of late like their crunchtime defense has been really bad and it’s cost them in a lot of these

Games but I think it’s schematic not Personnel based like they’re they’re really overh helping a lot right now it’s a it’s a major thing that I’m noticing where like if a guy has a defender or if a guy has an offensive player on his hip and he’s like tracking

Him and driving with him to the basket and instead of just letting him force him into a tough contested layup at The Rim or or anything other than a easy kick out they’re just all converging on the basketball and giving up these wide open shots so like I think they can be a

Lot better than what they have been um I I it’s an extreme long shot because they just don’t have any offensive production outside of Steph Curry that’s consistent especially within a playoff lens but like you can kind of see it’s like Steph Curry’s top five player in the world

They have a ton of athleticism now that they’ve been going to kaminga and Wiggins in the front line like that’s the long shot where are you at with the Warriors so I had the Warriors at number nine so we’re not far off on that over the last month the team with the fourth

Best net rating in the NBA 7.7 the Golden State Warriors they’ve really found something with this Jonathan kaminga uh Draymond Green front Court I think that has really really been impactful for them basically removing cavon Looney from the lineup has been valuable but the problem for them is

That they’re going to run into teams that have real bigs where they have to play Looney and they have to play Draymond Green with cavon Looney in all likelihood like you can’t just run out I I think that where they have found success is in situations that probably aren’t that

Applicable to the teams that they’re going to have to play in the playoffs uh if they play the nuggets as the seven seed they have to play cavon Looney 30 minutes a night or else like what what are you gonna put Draymond Green on Nicole yic like I love love love

Draymond Green but I don’t feel great about that matchup I I just don’t I’m sorry uh it’s really hard to play five out against the Nuggets because the nuggets are better than you at playing Five out if they play the Timberwolves you have to play cavon Looney I think like

At the end of the day I think that you’re going to have to do that so I I worry about what the playoffs madx look like as much as anything like the Warriors have been great with this smaller lineup but do you think and this is a real question for

You do you think that this smaller lineup can find success in the playoffs consistently uh because if you look at the teams that they’ve beat recently it’s like 76ers uh if I remember correctly that was the game where Joel embiid got hurt right so like they blew the doors off of them

Beat the Nets beat the Hawks beat the Grizzlies you know beat the Pacers with like a reduced Tyrese halberton uh beat the Jazz twice beat the or lost to the Clippers right uh or no they lost to the Hawks I’m sorry but then like lost to

The Lakers lost to the Kings like the good teams they’ve played over the course of this month for the most part they they have struggled to beat them and I wonder if it’s like a schematic thing where teams with real size that force them away from the kaminga Draymond look can cause them

Real issues and that those actual problems haven’t been addressed and been fixed I I have a feeling that some of this is regular season you know success as well stemming from like just lessons that we’ve learned over the years like to me Jonathan kaminga I’ve been so impressed by

Jonathan kaminga as like a long-term Prospect and like he’s won me over this year in a lot of ways like I really think Defenders struggled to handle him one onone which is like a which is a which is like a legitimate thing that you can build a career off of you know

What I mean um but but his jump shot after being red hot during that hot streak has gone way way way down and he does struggle now now now teams are starting to throw multiple bodies at him and this is what I’ve been saying over that whole stretch I was like okay

Jonathan kaminga is playing really really well but you get to the postseason everything is about exposing your weaknesses they’re going to find a way to like the big one with kaminga is like if you throw late help after he puts the ball on the floor he is

Turnover prone and so that that’s a big one and then the other one too is just in off ball situations you can just straight up play off of him like he’s not a guy that you necessarily have to worry about out there and so that puts you in a situation where you basically

Don’t have a reliable secondary shot Creator I’m less worried about the I’m less worried about the defensive configuration as it pertains to Looney because I think the I I think Looney’s been so bad this year that whatever athletic advantages you gain in Rotation by just being faster are are more

Important than whatever size you get from cavon Looney I think cavon Looney I don’t know I don’t know if it’s because he’s still kind of young like he’s not that old like I don’t understand what it is with him but he just has not been as useful this year as

He as he was in previous years like I I I I would lean more on speed and be like we just got to be a team that’s excellent in rotation against these teams that are too big for Draymond to handle one-on-one in the front line but like here’s the bottom line though as

You put it like there’s a reason why I have them in my long shot tier while you have them at number nine is like there’s just teams that are way better than them at the things that they do and it’s really that simple the more we talk

Through this the more I think that like I should probably have them at 11 not nine like the fact that they have beaten anybody during this stretch I kind of like thought about it a little bit more toward like they’ve been successful I’ve really likeed this group

But like in terms of playoff success I actually truly really think that you need side like you need somebody to match up with Nicole jic you need somebody to match up Carl towns you need somebody to match up with uh like anybody else that like even I think they

Deal well with the Pelicans like I think they deal well with Zion but like like yonas would cause them some problems I think on the front line the yonas Zion combination would cause them some problems I think in the front line I I just I I don’t think they’ve

Solved it I I really don’t in terms of when teams they have too many gaps that you can attack I really respect how hard you know Brandon psky plays on the ball and like I really or off the ball and I really respect his basketball IQ like

He’s like kind of a necessity for them as a secondary Creator a lot of the time and teams are going to attack him on the ball like pretty regularly on defense I I don’t think that they’re GNA find an answer defensively for this at

The end of the day and if they do find an answer for it defensively like if cavon can figure out whatever’s going on there and if Andrew Wiggins can come back to like this world which he has bit uh in recent weeks yeah I still think that they have many

Mismatch issues on the defensive end to where teams are going to be able to take advantage of them like okay like what you would like to do against Minnesota is you’d like to play a big against Carl towns and then have Draymond guard Rudy goar and then help off of Draymond like

On the or use Draymond as the help defender on Town’s drives on Town’s post-ups force him into tough decisions and be able to attack that way can’t really do that with like Jonathan kaminga you can’t put him on Carl towns towns will bury him on the

Block which means you then have to put Draymond on towns and I think Draymond would annoy the [ __ ] out of Carl towns but like then you’re putting Rudy goar on you’re putting Jonathan Kingo on Rudy goar and they’ll just Spam one five ball screens with uh Mike Conley and goar and

For as athletic as kaminga is he can’t out Highpoint goar and then if you do that you’re then helping off of towns probably with the tag Defender uh in Draymond in order to try and shut that down and then you’re leaving towns open and then you’re in scramble situations

Where you have Anthony Edwards setting up in a scramble situation right where he can attack a scramble bent defense I think they’re coming from too far away is where I’m at right now I think the Warriors are coming from too far away from uh where they are to be

Able to really truly contend right and kaminga and goar opens up even more defensive rebounding issues which has been just a huge problem like as even that dominant lineup That Wiggins kaminga Draymond Curry uh force them they they have not rebound rebounded well they’ve been a bad defensive

Rebounding team it’s like you watch the Jazz game and it’s like they keep getting stops but just guys are flying in and getting rebounds over them and then it’s like they finally get a stop at the end of the Clippers game and no one boxes out Russell Westbrook and they

Come he comes flying in and he get like they just that that to me like I actually again I’m higher on their defensive potential than you are but like like the defense the rebounding piece I don’t know that that can be fixed um all right we’re going to do

We’re going to do one more in depth and then we’re going to move quick through the end so number 10 I have the Oklahoma City Thunder so my my my thunder pessimism and I’ve said this a million times and I I have to say it as a disclaimer just

Because of the way that uh um sometimes people act the way the internet is yes uh I love everything about this Thunder team I love Shay I’ve been super high on him for a long time Jaylen Williams was talking about him this morning he had a couple of nasty um uh

Step back threes the other night against um God who was it I can’t even remember but I was I was watching him you know you know he’s actually been the second best pull-up jump shooter in the League this year like minimum 200 attempts there’s like 44 guys James Harden’s

Number one Jaylen Williams is number two he’s getting like 1.18 points per pull-up jump shot it’s completely outrageous and like and he’s like just got that in combination with real downhill Force I love Chad I love not just how good he is now but what his potential is and what his demeanor is

Like and his competitiveness um Lou dorts one of my favorite 3 andd players in the league huge Thunder fan this is just simply based on my overarching basketball opinions which is or philosophies whatever you want to call it in my opinion if you are small and

Young you’re not going to win in the late phases of the NBA Playoffs specifically last year’s conference finalist the final four teams all four were top 11 in defensive rebound rebounding in 2022 the Mavs Warriors and heat were all top 10 the Celtics were 15th 2021 all for uh conference

Finalists were all in the top 11 in defensive rebounding percentage I think a big part of it is when you get into that phase kind of like we saw in the Cavs niick Series last year those physical advantages actually just get overemphasized when you get to that

Point there’s a reason why no rebounds no rings is a is a saying it’s actually a big big version of why I have some skepticism surrounding the Clippers um in my opinion the Clippers are just a better version of the Thunder I know they don’t play schematically the exact

Same way but in terms of the way that they’re constructed as like these kind of two-way perimeter players I just think Kawai and Paul George are better versions of that than Shay and Jaylen are especially at this phase in their careers so like I I I really like Oklahoma City I would

Be is barring some sort of weird thing where like Shay decides he doesn’t want to be in the th anymore and Demands a trade I don’t think that the Thunder are going to go through this era without winning a title I think they’re going to

I think they’re too good not to I just it to to me in a field this stacked I would just be so surprised if this super young super small team somehow ended up with the trophy at the end of the day tell me why I’m wrong

Sam okay so look I say this is somebody who had the Thunder at like seven or eight or something like that right so I am not drastically higher on the Thunder than where you are for this season’s playoffs uh the highest I think you can reasonably get them right now is

Probably fifth or so I think they are a total ass-kicking team on offense uh and on defense they bring some real schematic point of attack issues that cause all sorts of problems in terms of halfcourt execution on top of that they are the best transition team in the NBA

Now I typically don’t love transition basketball in the playoffs I think it is much more difficult to execute than just being an elite level halfcourt execution offense having said that with the Thunder where the transition adeptness helps is if you decide that you want to try and attack the offensive glass

Against the Thunder and you want to go for that they’re going to kill you in transition even in the playoffs like if you decide hey we’re the Lakers we want to crash with ad we want to crash with uh really just ad I guess LeBron as well

Would be your idea if I’m the Thunder I’m saying be my guess we’re still going to get probably 65% of those like even if we’re the worst defensive rebounding team in the league we Pro like even if we like go even worse than the worst defensive rebounding team in the league

And we get 65% of the offensive re or the defensive rebounds and you’re crashing multiple guys we’re going to beat you in transition more than you’re going to beat us on the offensive glass so I would invite that if I’m them now the question with the Lakers the

Question with teams that like can really get downhill Rim pressure is what will Chad look like in the playoffs I think Chad is an outstanding competitor I think Chad is somebody whose mentality is going to translate exceedingly well toward the playoffs I worry a little bit in terms of foul

Trouble in the playoffs for Chad if he gets into foul trouble what is their combo breaker what is their counter they don’t really have one question mark uh it’s going to be entirely reliant on chat being able to play 35 minutes A Night in the play playoffs and I say

That thinking Chad is their third best player but he is probably their second most important player in terms of playoff success behind Shay now part of my thunder optimism compared to your being a thunder hater which is what I will be referring to you as from now on

Jason uh I think Shay is an absolute dude and I think he is going to be able to wreak havoc on a opposing teams and in part the reason for that is you have to guard them now five out the big underrated unsung trade Edition that a

Team made at the deadline if he can be healthy is Gordon Hayward because previously what teams have done to kind of gum up the works for Oklahoma City on offense is play your Center on Josh Giddy and then be able to try and filter Shay toward the help in the

Middle and then leave Josh giddy literally wide open from three that’s the way the teams have had success against them this season with Gordon Hayward you cannot do that he will kill you from three he will beat you as a shooter from distance and he’s bigger than Isaiah Joe which was

Their other like combo breaker counter whatever you want to call it Isaiah I think is a smart Defender but he’s somebody that you can attack a little bit too often on defense with Hayward I think that you’re not going to be able to attack him as much which leads to a circumstance where

They can play Genuine five out offense force all sorts of issues as you’re trying to stay in front of Shay gilis Alexander who is the best paint touch guy in the NBA right now I think you would probably agree with that he can beat he can beat people off the

Dribble he can beat anybody in the NBA off the dribble then on top of it you have Jaylen Williams who I think is still underrated League one I don’t think people understand what Oklahoma City has in Jaylen Williams this is not like your run-ofthe-mill like potential second star at some point

He is going to be an all NBA play you were the one who gave me them Jimmy Butler right it was you that gave me that right yes love that that is literally what I’m going to next yeah he is like Jimmy Butler for this coming era he

Is huge he is physical he’s six foot6 with a seven foot two wingspan the biggest thing though is he’s a genuine three-level scorer how many teams right now can you point to that have two legitimate Elite and I would say Jaylen isn’t maybe not like Elite of the elite

But he’s damn close three level scorers right right now I would not say Giannis is a three-level scorer I would not say Anthony Davis is a three-level scorer uh I would say that the Nuggets certainly have multiple three level scores I would say the Clippers have three level scor

Even Kaw and Paul George don’t get to the rim the way that Shay and Jaylen do 100% that ability to constantly pressure the defense from multiple angles I think is enormous you can constantly pressure the defense from multiple angles on the court from all three levels while having three other

Additional guys on the court that are spacing the court I think they’re actually an impossible guard in the playoffs if they don’t have to play Josh giddy it’s totally reasonable I loved the Gordon Hayward edition if for nothing else I’m just excited to watch Gordon Hayward play in big playoff games

I don’t know about you but like I feel like I feel like we haven’t gotten nearly enough of that especially after what he was like in college um specifically with Shay you and I had an argument on the phone the other day and I want I wanted to kind of get that on

The record here so basically what I said to Sam on the phone and you think he’s James where your take is I I use James Harden as a cop to make an example of about playoff defense but I I uh I’ll accept it so basically this is the this

Is what I I said to Sam for the record I do not think is going to be James Harden but one of the things that happened to James Harden uh is he was a guy that had the basketball in his hands a lot and did a lot of attacking

Specifically from the same angles on the floor out of ball screens and an isolation and one of the things I noticed with James Harden is he was a guy that was gifted at beating people off the dribble but was not a supreme athlete at his position which is what I

Would describe Shay Shay to me is a very good athlete but he is not Anthony Edwards okay he doesn’t bring like incredible Force to the position he is Shifty with the way that he beats people off the dribble amazing with change of pace and footwork and all the like kind

Of we he’s got kind of like a weird old-fashioned game in a lot of ways with his ability to beat people off the dribble with hesitations and in- outs and and he’s really good at protecting the basketball while making aggressive moves um but what would happen with

James Harden is by game five by game six by game seven of a series an elite perimeter Defender would see his dribble p pack Ag and see his hesitation moves dozens and dozens and dozens and dozens of times and he just wouldn’t be able to get as much separation as the series

Progressed all I’m saying is I am curious to see Shay in his first playoff series as a number one option simply because he is a guy that relies a lot on change of pace hesitation type of stuff to beat people off the dribble I’m curious to see if we see an Elite

Perimeter Defender not solve him but figure out a way to kind of slow him down a little bit I I’m just curious to see it I personally think that Shay will eventually solve that himself in his career even if he does encounter that problem I just think he’s way better

Than I I think he will be way better than James Harden ever was but I just think and that almost feels mean to say with how good James Harden was at his prime but I I I I want to say I believe in long term I’m just curious to see if

There will be an adjustment period with him as it pertains to playoff basketball here here’s my counter to that James Harden never had a mid-range game that was nearly the level that Shay’s mid-range game is Shay is shooting something like 52 to 53% uh from between 10 and 23 feet right

Now so even if you do stay in front of him where Harden struggled was deciding okay I’m just going to step back into the mid-range and find a way into that shot he had to get all the way to the rim he had to rely on fouls right Shay

Has the body mechanics and that shiftiness to be able to stop and pop in the mid-range and be able to just shoot over the top of a tough he can create highish not super high but like highish efficiency looks from the mid-range in a way that James Harden really couldn’t at

The end of the day and I think that it’s much harder to sit on Shay’s moves in that way particularly knowing that with Harden it was okay I either need to sit on the step back or I need to be ready to stop him at the rim and we need to

Have second body coming over with Shay it’s I have to be available for the step back three I have to be available basically at every single step along the line toward him driving to the rim I have to be ready that he’s going to stop

And pop ahead of me and I think that that makes it a lot more difficult to guard him than what it was to guard James in the playoffs at the end of the day when you had seven games to adjust throw different looks at him throw

Different counters at him and on top of it seriously like Jaylen Williams is waiting on the second side once the defense is bent and he can score from all three levels too he’s a 50 I think he’s shooting like 54 45 82 or something right now so like he’s a 180 shooter on

The other side just in a different you know mean way that he’s going about it in terms of the numbers so man I think this is a really good team dude I think that it really does I think your points are entirely valid about what do they look like in terms of the

Physicality if Chad can’t stay on the floor they have a real chance to lose in the first round that that is a fact of the matter if he proves that he can stay on the floor I think they can make the finals like to me the swing is all him

And I don’t know the answer to that yet I don’t think anybody does in terms of the way that like his game will be officiated as much as anything like I trust the person like the human being to bring it I’m just really interested to see the way he’s officiated in the play

I’m excited to see what happens to be clear I’m rooting for them this is not this is not a a a negative like thunder type of take it’s just it’s just uh I I am I I think this can work to my detriment sometimes but I lean heavily

On my basketball philosophies and they just kind of it landed into some of those boxes so I lied I I I do want to do a little bit of a deeper dive on this particular team my number 11 which is the Dallas Mavericks so I I’m assuming the front Court player

You’re really high on is Daniel Gafford I I like Daniel Gafford I think he falls a little bit into the like I think he’s better than this player for the record but I I I he to me he falls a little bit into the Montes Herold type of tier where like he’s an

Incredible rle man who finishes on catching rolling to the rim really well but I get concerned about him as a pick and roll Defender uh in particular yeah that’s that I think is reasonable and to the point that I was trying to make about the Suns earlier like there’s a

Case to be made that Derek Lively is actually their best option at Center there’s a case to be made that Josh Green is actually a better you know option for them to use as kind of like a perimeter versatile forward than a you know than a PJ Washington even though

He’s undersized you know there’s a case to be made that some of the guys they brought back in the deadline aren’t necessarily even in their closing Five um I am curious I I I you know I hate that our only fil I wanted to watch film

And it’s like the only film we get is the damn Spurs game which just they’re so easy to guard because because their lack of legitim ball handling uh but I have them as my long shots for one very simple reason and I actually had a question earlier someone gave me three

Teams and I want to say it was like the Pelicans the Mavs and then I can’t remember who the last team was but I said the Mavs have the best chance to win out of that group because to me Kyrie Irving and and Luka donic are just

Two of the best halfcourt shot creators in the playoffs that you could have and so if they can find a way to defend and compete on the glass well enough and they’ve been a bad defensive rebounding team this year as well but if they can

Find a way to contend in those areas I just think it’s to count those guys out and that’s why I have him as long shots but you’re way higher on the MAV so make the case they will enter every series with a reasonable case that they have the best

Player in the series outside of Denver I think uh I would take Nicole yic over all of these guys but like if you were drafting playoff games and playoff lineups I might take Luca third like I really might given what he has been able to do in the playoffs he has been

Unstoppable every time that he has hit the highest level of NBA caliber competition now you look at the schematics around it I actually really like the way that this roster is built from that perspective I wouldn’t have given up a first round pick for PJ Washington but he does create some

Flexibility for them lineup wise I think is intriguing for what I’ll talk about momentarily they now just have a lot of different bodies that they can throw out there they have Tim Hardway Jr if you want like the high volume three-point scorer they have Josh Green who I think

Is a really interesting body that they can throw out there athletically on defense who I I don’t know if you can leave him open from three anymore that was kind of what I thought you would do in a play was two years ago like yeah he’s been consistent the last like year

And a half to where like kind of think you might not be able to like leave him totally open I really loved the minutes that Dante exom gave them we’ll see what happens with Dante he has the knee injury he hasn’t played in what like

Three or four weeks it feels like now if he’s there I think that he gives them another option then in the front Court I agree with you that in the playoffs that Derek Lively I think is probably their best option right because you can do multiple things with him in ball screens

At the end of the day uh whereas with Gafford you really have to play Drop you really have to fight over the top and their guards Luca and Kyrie are not necessarily built to fight over the top if you are a team that has two creators

That you can trust uh you’ll have you know Josh Green whoever guard at the point of attack right uh Dante exom as well drik Jones Jr potentially for minutes as well like but if you have the second creator that you trust to be able to get real opportunities that’s where you make Luca

And Kyrie fight over the top and gaff screens and that’s probably going to lead to open opportunities and looks so I’m with you I think it’s probably lively that’s going to have to play but they have 48 minutes now if they want it of elite level Rim protection in

Lively and Gafford that’s the difference between Gafford and Tres in my opinion Gafford is at least like a very good Rim he’s got more length he contests he has more length and he contests everything like he often to his detriment in terms of Defense rebounding like he chases

Everything uh in terms of contesting at the basket so teams are going to miss against them and I think it’s actually a little bit easier for him to chase everything when you have Luca crashing in to clean up on the defensive glass because of how good of a defensive

Rebounder Luca is now like you still need to get a body on guys you still need to be able to uh create things that way but Luca is so good in the playoffs Kyrie is also incredible in the playoffs and I think that his season has really

Gone under the radar because he’s Miss so many games already to where he’s not going to be eligible for all NBA Kyrie right now is averaging 26 on 4941 so good and nobody is talking so good he has like a four and a half to

One assist he like a four to one assist turnover ratio right now like Kyrie has been unbelievable this season like to to a ridiculous ridiculous degree I think there’s like almost a case where if you’re the sons would you rather have Luca and Kyrie dein Booker and Kevin Durant given

How good Luca has been this season man that’s a tough question I uh I I’ve it’s always annoyed me with all the conversations surrounding Kyrie Irving that like he’s awesome at basketball isn’t brought up more like like because I he is incredible he’s incredible and like I do think a lot of

People Galaxy bring into that situation in the sense that like like the covid stuff totally understand why everyone was frustrated that was super annoying the year before when he just left his family or left the team to go be with his family or whatever the hell he was

Doing totally understand what he did to Cleveland totally understand what he did to Boston totally understand what happened at the end of Brooklyn was super obvious he had falling out with the front office and he wanted a new deal that was what he was trying to do

So like I was pretty pretty certain that he would be focused when he was in Dallas for that specific reason and when he’s in a situation where the contract isn’t hanging over his head and you know I I I I have a feeling that at least within the context of this season that

That was never going to be an issue and he’s been awesome um I do what’s I get a little worried about Dallas with who their best five is so like if I’m if I’m Dallas obviously we talked about Derrick Lively as the five to me I kind of

Lean Josh Green for more physical matchups maybe a Tim Hardway Jr against teams where you really need more shooting but that four spot is the interesting one to me would you would you rather go with like a guy like Derrik Jones Jr who’s like a really solid perimeter Defender who’s actually

Been a decent kind of like weak side kind of slasher off the wing and has done some good stuff for them offensively or would you go with PJ Washington at the four there it’s matchup dependent and it’s dependent on how serious PJ like takes defensive attention to detail because

That’s always been the issue with him and Charlotte it’s just like the attention to detail the transition defense the willingness to like consistently fight like game in game out uh he’s a very skilled he he the answer should be PJ uh like very clearly that’s what the team wants I’m assuming right

It’s it’s what the team wants and it’s what I would want it’s what I think everybody in the league should want PJ needs to prove that it can be PJ in my opinion uh if he really it’s it’s up to PJ Washington if he is their closing four or frankly another situation that

Was very useful for Charlotte in the past when PJ was in his second season and was like a little bit more engaged was playing PJ at the five this is kind of the other thing that I think is a little bit interesting about Dallas what their moves did at the deadline is it

Allowed them to play Big with Lively and Gafford for 48 minutes at the five spot or it allowed them to go small you can downsize and you can go like Maxi kba PJ Washington at the 45 and you can still have like requisite size intelligence out there with maxi

Hopefully Maxi knocks down threes and hopefully Maxi like stays healthy he’s had issues with that obviously over the course of the last couple of years but you have a lot of different front Court lineup variations to where if you need to shut down if you need to switch

Ball screens and shut down things you can go PJ and Maxi at the four and the five if you want to play drop or something like that PJ is not going to be good at drop but you can have Maxi rotating over from the weak side and at

Least be like a presence there as a good intelligent tall high-end Defender and then you go five out around Luca Luca likes having the lob threat he likes having the downhill body that can also like Gortat screen for him as he’s like navigating the paint and everything but like their optionality in

The front Court like some of these other teams I think they don’t have enough options like Phoenix does not have enough options around their stars to be able to get the most out of their Stars if something goes Haywire right uh Oklahoma City to an extent they fixed

It with Hayward a little bit but largely they don’t have enough optionality behind chat if something was to go wrong or like if they were count counting on Josh giddy to play like 25 minutes a game in the playoffs right Dallas to me actually has optionality because they have two-way players PJ is

An entirely theoretical two-way player in my opinion but there’s a chance that he could be that he’s shown the wherewithal to do it especially in on ball settings in the past Josh Green can be a two-way player if you get a hot shooting night from Derrick Jones Jr he

Could be a two-way player for a night Dante exom has been like a pretty solid two-way player throughout the course of the season and then you have Gafford and Lively both of whom are two-way players in the context of what Dallas asks them to do within their offense being a screen roll

Rim run guy being screen roll rim run guys whereas these other teams I think are inflexible I actually think Dallas is a little bit more flexible in how they can surround their stars with talent and let those guys be great I wonder if you could run some like Josh

Green PJ Washington kba front Court looks where you do more switching too I like that’s always been a big one for me that defensive versatility piece and and I will say I will say I have been really impressed by the job that front office has done since last year massively

Increasing the athletic profile of the team because like they were not athletic last year and now it’s like between Derrick Jones Jr Josh Green I think is a really good athlete at the position but even Tim Hardway for all of his flaws he can move you know like he uh Max kba is

A is a is a very mobile big guy PJ Washington very mobile Derek Lively very mobile Daniel Gafford very mobile like they all of a sudden have a lot of to your point it’s a lot of guys who theoretically could be good defensively and that’s what kind of gets you to the

Situation where you can kind of see a path which is like as long as Jason kid kind of touch the right notes about who those other three guys are depending on the matchup as long as luuka and Kyrie bring the requisite Superstar shot creation you have you have a chance to

To beat really anybody I I you’ve you’ve definitely raised my opinion of the Mavs through this conversation but I’m not surprised you’ve done that before um let’s go quickly through these last bits of our gut hold on real quick to fin to finish Dallas where do you think I have

Dallas ranked right now in this thing I’m gonna guess that you have them at six behind Milwaukee yeah I have them five five milwauke five I have them I have them ahead of Minnesota wow wow I think that they cause real schematic problems for Minnesota in terms of yeah you throw Jaden McDaniels

On Luca probably that’s your goal but okay then you’re gonna Force Anthony Edwards to guard Kyrie for minutes upon minutes upon minutes in that series and that feels like a real issue and then they can throw multiple big bodies out there at Carl towns and uh Rudy goar if

They want to next two weeks Phoenix Indie Cleveland and Boston on Dallas’s schedule so we’re going to learn a lot one of the thing with Dallas that’s made them impossible for me to evaluate they’ve had 16 different guys start games from this year they’ve had they’ve had 11 different guys start at least

Five games for them this year so like it’s been re really difficult for me to get a read on the team just because they’ve had constant guys in and out of the lineup you make some really good points about the matchup with uh min soda in particular you know what’s interesting

Too last thing I’ll say about it you had talked about like the Lakers coming from the seven seed and and I in general don’t think there’s an easy matchup anywhere in the west from the standpoint of like like let’s say you’re the one seed yeah if you’re the one seed if

You’re let’s say that the the Timberwolves run away with it they get the one seed like you’re probably going to have to face Golden State or the Lakers in the first round like that’s not an easy matchup you know like I you’re not going it’s not easy

But you’re not going into that match up like you’re not going into that match up like it’s easy okay so you win you you play the winner of Denver Phoenix you know and then like if you win that you play the winner of OKC the Clippers so

Like I don’t really look at seeding as as as as important it’s more just the homec court advantage piece I think is a big differentiator but yeah like I agree with you like like the Mavs going to present some real matchup problems for teams just just with the the sheer

Amount of looks that they can go with that’s a really interesting take um I at number 12 had the Miami Heat I love the Miami Heat but once again I I think they’re a great upset candidate for teams that are flawed I think they’re a good Championship like security station

Where like if you don’t get through Miami you’re clearly not a championship Contender anyway cuz like they’ll just expose you for the [ __ ] you’re bad at I love the Delon Wright pickup I think that’s a guy that can help them I do think they’ll get more out of Terry

Rosier God willing if his hell his knee can get right I do think they’ll get more out of him than what they’ve gotten um but I do think there’s a little bit of a good stats bad team thing going on with Terry rier at least as an offensive

Shot Creator uh which I which I think you’ve seen some of the early returns of this year um with Miami I just again just don’t think they have the Firepower but I do think they’ve got the capability of upsetting anybody just simply on the strength of spola Jimmy

Bam and some of the backourt athleticism that they’ve added yeah so I also have the heat and am ready for people to come back to this in two months and just be like well they did it again they did it again uh like look if

They play the Bucks in a 27 M or like they’re not going to finish seventh but like if they finish uh you know you know if the Bucks fall to the four seed and they’re the five seed or something like that and they play the Bucks in the

First round and that’s spoler against Doc Rivers in that like messy Bucks team I have zero best outcome that would be the peak outcome for this season I really like kind of want it to happen if I’m being honest and look I know they’re in seventh in the um East

Right now so like I should say that they could finish seventh in the East I guess but like I think they finish ahead of man Indiana could get healthy and like go on a bit of a run they’re only you know two and a half games back of

Philadelphia right now we’ll see what Philadelphia ends up being coming down the stretch here um if they get to the six and Milwaukee ends up the three or something like that that could be just like really really fun oh my gosh it’d be amazing um number 13 I had the Philadelphia

76ers uh and it’s just it’s all theoretical based on like what if embiid comes back and just kicks everyone’s ass like that’s always like an outcome that you have to Rite where would you rank them where would you rank them if Joel was healthy I think if I remember

Correctly after right around the time that the uh Denver game went down I think I had them like fifth if I remember correctly again my my my take on embiid is really simple I think if he stays healthy and I mean in the long run that he will have a

Breakthrough playoff run I think he’s too talented not to yeah um it’s just a question of when could figure those things out and I do think Health has played a role I think it’s been a combination of him leaning a little bit too much on the jump shot in postseason

Settings and then two and him not being able to hit it when he gets there and then the health I think has been a legitimate issue for him uh but in terms of the Sixers overall I look at it like I do think that Tyrese Maxi it’s a lot

To ask for him to be the second best player on a championship team in this phase of his career and I I run into a little bit of like a do they have enough Firepower type of of discussion would they be able to weather a joeel embiid

Clunker you know in a big moment that you know is something that he’s uh has the potential to kind of deal with and really ever since Jimmy Butler’s been out of the equation I haven’t felt like they’ve had that type of guy uh you know

What I mean and so I I I I’m high on the Sixers in the long run I thought that Daryl Mory did a really nice job with the James Harden trade I was actually surprised with how much he got back um not just in usable players but also in

Just draft compensation and like I thought darl M did a really good job there I think they’re poised for another big move uh to kind of address some of their Firepower issues in the long run but like to me even if they were fully healthy I would have had them pretty far

Down on this list but under the circumstances the the idea of embiid coming back before the end of the year just getting in rhythm in time to kick everybody’s bat butt just felt like a long shot to me how many playoff games do you think Tyrese Maxi has played so far in his

Career gosh I’m going to guess was he even in the rotation two years ago he was okay I’m gonna say 25 yeah he’s played 35 playoff games already like so he’s played like half a season in the playoffs like I wonder if we might be under looking and

Underrating like his comfort level in the playoffs already obviously like up until last season it was a different role but you know what each of the last two seasons where he’s played 40 minutes a night he’s averaged 21 points a game in the playoffs and his like that second

Year that 2022 year he shot 48 38 94 on 21 points a night in the playoffs I think Tyrese might be fine in the playoffs is where what I’m getting at here if he’s able to not be the number one if he’s able to be the number two

Behind Joel I love the Buddy heeled Edition for them if Joel’s healthy uh it creates so many problems for opposing teams On The Backs side of those uh empty side pick and roll actions they like to run with Tyrese if you just put buddy in the corner of those actions

Most teams like to pre-rotate from the corner in order to help those uh in order to help on the empty side roll if you put him in the corner your team can’t pre-rotate that means you’re pre- rotating from the wing which means that then you’re able to kick the wing

In all likelihood and then you have either the corner man lifting which is Buddy’s guy or you have top of the key that’s helping which is just an easy reversal and then you’re basically back into the action again uh with one more pass right so like it flows into itself

Really well and that’s even just like not accounting for you could do some [ __ ] wild stuff with like Joel and Buddy and like 52 ball screen like slip actions right you could do some crazy stuff with like Maxi healed speed actions like you could run some like uh

21 actions where like buddy is you know you’re running like empty side with Buddy like ghosting in the wing like you could just do so so much you could do exactly right you could do so so so much with them I think that buddy is a real schematic addition

For them in a playoff setting in my opinion even with the defensive liabilities that he brings to the table I just don’t trust that Joel’s going to be healthy enough to see any of it unfortunately I’m really high on Tyrese Maxi I think he’s the probably the best combination of speed and

Shooting ability that we have in the league right now uh I’m a Hu I’m a huge believer in him in the long run his efficiency did tank quite a bit last year uh that was the one thing that kind of got me a little bit worried about him

And like we’ve seen even just for stretches this year where he can go cold um I I’m a big believer in Tyrese I just think I think it’s a lot to ask for a guy in his first year being the number one and by the way to me number two

Option does doesn’t mean as much when you factor in the fact that he’s going to get the number one perimeter Defender like he’s going to get the best perimeter Defender that the other team has to offer I am I again just huge believer in Tyrese Maxi long run but

Like guys just think of it like this he’s Tyler Harrow’s age he’s Jordan pool’s age like he’s young he’s got there’s there there’s there’s something to be said about um about like if there’s if there’s been a theme that you guys have picked up for me on this

Today’s Show it’s like Jason hates the youth but but I uh uh I I am a believer in Tyrese’s long run in the long run I am a believer that Joel embiid will eventually break through just doesn’t feel like this is going to be the year

So uh is there anybody that’s the end of my list is there any team that you had on your list that I didn’t have no the end of my list too um I just the teams we discussed earlier we talked about the cabs top yeah we’ve talked to

Everybody cool all right well two and a half hours later poor Paul he’s gonna have to he’s going have to cut this into multiple episodes for sure uh multiple episodes it’s fine but I appreciate yeah we shouldn’t even thank each other for this we should just thank Paul for for

Listening to us for the last two and a half hours shout out Paul baby thank you guys so much for supporting the show Sam can you please shout out your work Sam does amazing work for the athletic go to the game theory podcast over on YouTube uh go to the athletic

Keep me employed over there uh that’s you know all we got nothing too crazy let’s uh how about you and I plan on doing a play off preview at some point when we get closer is that’s something because I love talking matchups with you I think that’d be

Fun yeah of course man anytime all right guys as always we appreciate you for supporting the show I am taking every minute off until Warriors Lakers on Thursday night I will see you guys for an instant reaction then we appreciate you guys we’ll see you Then He

Jason Timpf is joined by The Athletic’s Sam Vecenie to break down the NBA’s top contenders post All-Star break. The guys debate whether LeBron James’ Lakers or Steph Curry’s Warriors will go on another NBA Finals run, if the Knicks or Thunder are a legitimate threat, and whether they expect Kevin Durant and the Suns to make noise in the Western Conference. The episode ends with Jason and Sam sharing their thoughts on the Mavericks, Heat, and 76ers who all fell just outside of their top ten.

Watch Part 1 here: https://youtu.be/lR0DvplqjxI

Timeline:
00:00 – Introduction
02:49 – #6 Contender: Phoenix Suns
10:47 – #7 Contender: New York Knicks
22:05 – #8 Contender: Los Angeles Lakers
37:45 – #9 Contender: Golden State Warriors
48:19 – #10 Contender: Oklahoma City Thunder
01:03:33 – #11 Contender: Dallas Mavericks
01:18:26 – #12 Contender: Miami Heat
01:20:35 – #13 Contender: Philadelphia 76ers
01:26:26 – Check out Sam’s work!

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