>When discussing true point value, the researchers use the term “shot attempts” instead of “field goal attempts” because their formula includes missed shots when a player is fouled, which is not included in standard field-goal attempt statistics. So, when including made and missed free throws, the disparity based on this new true value metric is even greater as average 2-point shot attempts are now worth 0.087 more points than 3-point shot attempts.
>Officials from NBA teams and the league have discussed moving the 3-point line back from its current distance of 23 feet, 9 inches (22 feet in the corners). But as this study shows, the value of a 3-pointer is decreasing at the current distance, and teams are already starting to alter their shot selection to emphasize more high-percentage 2-point shots.
>“These research findings do not coincide completely with the unresearched musings of NBA analysts Charles Barkley and Shaquille O’Neal,” Sanders says. “For example, our findings do not suggest that such perimeter stars as Stephen Curry or Damian Lillard should not shoot a lot of threes. It means marginal stretch fours and other marginal outside shooters should not pull up for a 3 as often and that some marginal outside shooters should not extend their range to 25-26 feet or more. Players can still achieve the offensive spacing benefits of positioning on the perimeter without some players shooting from there quite as often.”
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Straight to the article that talks about the paper: https://news.syr.edu/blog/2024/02/09/deflation-study-shows-nba-3-point-shot-has-lost-its-value
Excerpt:
>When discussing true point value, the researchers use the term “shot attempts” instead of “field goal attempts” because their formula includes missed shots when a player is fouled, which is not included in standard field-goal attempt statistics. So, when including made and missed free throws, the disparity based on this new true value metric is even greater as average 2-point shot attempts are now worth 0.087 more points than 3-point shot attempts.
>Officials from NBA teams and the league have discussed moving the 3-point line back from its current distance of 23 feet, 9 inches (22 feet in the corners). But as this study shows, the value of a 3-pointer is decreasing at the current distance, and teams are already starting to alter their shot selection to emphasize more high-percentage 2-point shots.
>“These research findings do not coincide completely with the unresearched musings of NBA analysts Charles Barkley and Shaquille O’Neal,” Sanders says. “For example, our findings do not suggest that such perimeter stars as Stephen Curry or Damian Lillard should not shoot a lot of threes. It means marginal stretch fours and other marginal outside shooters should not pull up for a 3 as often and that some marginal outside shooters should not extend their range to 25-26 feet or more. Players can still achieve the offensive spacing benefits of positioning on the perimeter without some players shooting from there quite as often.”