This is a long post, but the team’s recent run of play, and especially Tyrese’s struggles, have seen all sorts of takes about the starting lineup, Tyrese’s bag, whether he’s still injured or if this is just a cold streak that could happen to anybody, and how good the team is. While we can’t known Ty’s true injury status, I did some digging around on NBA stats, and I do think there’s reason for mild concern.
**The best option at the starting 2-guard spot was traded away for nothing**
|Lineups: Haliburton, Turner, and \_\_\_|Net rating|
|:-|:-|
|Hield|\+18.4|
|Toppin|\+12.4|
|Brown|\+11.4|
|Nesmith|\+9.0|
|Nembhard|\+6.5|
|Siakam|\+2.1|
|Mathurin|\+0.9|
The trio of Tyrese, Myles, and Buddy ranked #4 in the entire NBA among 3-man units that have played at least 400 minutes together by net rating. That’s about as good as Dame-Giannis-Middleton (+18.2), as well as the best lineups on Boston, Philly (healthy Embiid), and Denver. But Buddy wanted out, the FO traded him away for nothing, and many fans were happy to see him go.
**Less shooting gravity means less space for Tyrese to operate, and that hamstrings the way Tyrese and the Pacers want to play (pun intended)**
I do not believe this is a statistical mirage. Catch-and-shoot 3P gravity makes it very hard for teams to double Tyrese or send extra help his way because shooters teams fear are waiting behind him. This fear is the key — [more so than even percentages](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-the-mere-threat-of-a-three-enough-to-affect-a-defense/). Buddy’s reputation created chaos no other SG on the team commands.
With Buddy, this was clearest when he would ghost screen for Tyrese because teams occasionally messed up the switch, both went to Buddy, and then Tyrese would get a wide open 3 or diving lane *without doing anything himself*. Tyrese doesn’t have Fox’s burst, an iso midrange game like Shai or Book, or the crafty paint moves like Brunson, making this partnership with a shooter other teams were terrified of a potent combination. Buddy’s shooting gravity unlocked other aspects of Tyrese’s game.
The drop-off after Buddy is severe. Buddy took 7.0 catch-and-shoot threes per 36 minutes, shooting 41% on those attempts. The alternatives at the 2-guard spot are nowhere close to that combination of volume and efficiency. Nembhard takes 2.7 C&S threes per 36 (on 39% shooting); Mathurin takes 2.0 (38% shooting). Ben Sheppard does take about 6 catch-and-shoot 3PA per 36 minutes but is shooting worse than all of them on those attempts at 34%.
With less space around him and recovering from an injured hamstring, Tyrese is driving less and generating fewer points than he used to be.
Tyrese for the season: 13 drives per game | 7.1 points per drive
Tyrese post trade deadline: 9.1 drives per game | 2.2 points per drive (!!)
Among the 62 rotation players and starters who drive at least 8 times per game, 2.2 points per drive would rank dead last for the season. Instead of scoring on his drives, Tyrese has passing. For the season, he has passed out of about 50% of his drives; over the last 9, he’s passed out of 60%, which to me suggests continued hamstring discomfort.
But it’s not just drives: He’s taking 1 fewer pull-up 3 per game and shooting 10% worse post trade deadline vs. the season overall. And he’s getting far fewer wide open looks from three compared to earlier in the season (3.7 wide open 3s post-deadline vs. 5.0 for the season).
By no means do I think this has everything to do with Buddy Hield; the injury looms very large here. Basketball Reference calculates a “game score” for every player, every game. Over 20 is good; 25+ and you’re approaching MVP level. Here’s his typical game score pre- and post-injury
Before injury: 24.3
After injury: 15.8
You can look at any counting stat, or just watch the games, and it’s clear: Tyrese’s offensive impact is way down since he got hurt, and it hasn’t consistently returned to his pre-injury level.
**In other words, due to the combination of injury and loss of shooting gravity, most core aspects of Tyrese’s offensive game have gotten worse—and the Pacers have no shot at being a genuinely good team until that changes.**
Today, March 2, the Pacers are a play-in team. They’re 16th in Win%, 15th in net rating, and 17th in SOS-adjusted net rating. The inconsistency that has defined their season could see them send a lottery pick to Toronto or compete closely in a playoff series against anyone.
But every lineup tweak or suggested adjustment is a distraction until their best player gets healthy and finds his early-season form, a task made more difficult by the fact that, at least for now, none of his new running mates fit his style as well as the guy who didn’t want to play here anymore.
by m1ster_k
12 Comments
I think everyone knows what is necessary to Sheppard in some wins.
My god. I’m so tired of this. Great net rating with Buddy so where was the great winning then? What was the absolute apex of their win-loss record with Buddy starting and making things “easier” on Tyrese? 4, 5, 6 games over .500? Is that any better than what we’re seeing now with all of these awful lineups? Why was the coach you all worship and tell me to bow down to anytime I suggest Jarace should play more flip flopping between starting Buddy and benching him all season?
Doesn’t really matter, buddy was out of our price range, had to get something for him
yeah, sounds about right. but buddy requested a trade. we had to get rid of him. however, all of this bullshit could be solved by:
1. Not starting Nembhard and Tyrese together. They simply do not work together. Tyrese must have the ball in his hands and be the main playmaker in order to operate properly. Nembhard, while a good defender, is not a consistent offensive player. He also needs the ball in his hands to operate, which, again, does not work when Tyrese is on the floor with him.
2. PASS THE BALL TO PASCAL. Seriously, what are we doing here? The entire point of that trade was to get a guy to take the pressure off of Tyrese. However, teams are still able to trap him because Pascal is not going to get the ball, and Nembhard is not a threat either and once you get the ball out of Tyrese’s hands the possession is basically over. That is bullshit.
3. Play defense. Man, that Pelicans game was so good. Turner was actually blocking shots, Benn and Tyrese who are our worst defenders were out there getting stops, and overall it was one of our best defensive games. Same with the Mavericks game. All we did was play just okay defense. I can’t understand why they don’t do that every night, man.
That’s about it. Our team is figuring things out. I am sure Ty will return to form, and all of these things will happen to a lot of rebuilding teams. We just have to be patient.
Oh look, another person that cries when a rebuilding team (albeit ahead of schedule) loses. We aren’t winning a title this year and for a second star. I don’t care what happens the rest of this season. Next year and beyond is what matters.
We all know Buddy wanted more money than the Pacers were willing to pay and I side with the Pacers on that front. So there isn’t a need for apology as it was the right move.
I appreciate your analysis. Maybe there is merit to what you say but Buddy wanted more than his worth.
Yeah we scapegoated Buddy but he’s not even the biggest problem we have right now. It’s the defense. We don’t have a wing defender that can stop anybody.
We have 2 1/2 serviceable big men that can play okay defense. But our best defender is really our back up PG. Right now we’re seeing what our team is like without a wing defender that’s even serviceable. And that’s because Nesmith is out. He has his ups and downs, and I’d just say he’s okay at defense with bright moments, but “okay” is the best we have and without him we get absolutely smashed by long wings with size over Nesmith.
Nemby really needs to be our 6th man. Because when that first group goes out- if Pascal doesn’t stay in we don’t have anybody that we can rely on to get points if TJ isn’t getting those lobs. Toppin is a catch and shoot or run and dunk guy. I love TJ and he is sneaky and an asset- but unreliable because if I’m being honest…. He’s a defender and gimmick guy. Stix is Turner Light basically, so we know what he can do. And that’s kind of it for guys worth mentioning. So Nemby coming in and being the igniter off the bench is our best option. But if Nesmith is out… what other option do we have? Shepherd has potential and honestly he tries really hard. I’d almost start him if Nesmith is out because you’ll know right away if he’s going to be hot or not, and if he is- let the man shoot and take some pressure off Hali.
Pascal plays good (not great) defense, but he can only guard the one guy. Haliburton has all the physical tools, but seems disinterested in doing anything by besides crashing the boards (poorly) or reaching for steals. So who’s defending guys like Ingram when Nesmith is out?
We all kind of nervously laugh and ask “What if PG came back?” Well… if he did he’d instantly shape the defense up because he can guard whoever. It doesn’t have to be PG (I’d rather have Kahwi if I had a wish to burn) but someone like him who’s long, plays **good** defense and is a threat enough on offense to wear out the wing guy that always kills us. That’s the biggest need right this second. In my opinion anyway 🤷♂️
Yeah, I’m not reading all that.
I’m happy for you tho!
Or sorry that happened.
also, look at Obi there. Obi back in his 11-15 minutes a game groove. A byproduct of Siakam arriving has been Obi’s lessening influence. Obvs people don’t like the D but the net rating suggests a plus overall.
Chill give it time
Dallas and first pelicans game was fine
They are working through team cohesion
All the stats in the world can’t change that Buddy wanted out. And it was time for the Pacers to see if Mathurin was going to be the future at 2 or not. Jury is still out but it’s not looking great.