Are the Celtics as Good as the Stats Suggest? | The Bill Simmons Podcast

Are the Celtics as Good as the Stats Suggest? | The Bill Simmons Podcast

Celtics 45 and 12 eight game lead in the East five games over anyone in the west they’re first in offensive rating third in defensive rating they’re plus 10 and a half net rating which has them tied for ninth all time they’re on a list that includes wait say that again yeah they’re ninth

All time in that rating right now the list includes the 96 Bulls 13.4 highest one the 97 Bulls the 2017 Warriors the best team in the century the 16 Spurs did not win the title the’ 08 Celtics the 92 Bulls the N the 71 bucks the 16 warriors did not win

The title and then they’re tied with the 72 Lakers who did win the title this is by net rating the best team in the last seven years they uh I asked Sean gry for this because I know he keeps track of weird [ __ ] like this so thanks to Sean

They’ve had 35 games this year where they’ve been up by 15 points or more they’ve had 24 games where they’ve been up by 20 or more the 08 Celtics had 35 they’re number one in rebounds they’re number one in three points attempted their uh net rating stuff the

F their best fiveman lineup that’s fourth best two-man lineup Tatum and white that’s second plus 12 point their best three-man lineup porzingis Tatum and white or porzingis brown and white both of those are the best three man lineups in the league all the porzingis numbers are amazing uh the advanced stats say that

This team actually could get a little better I think there’s a world I think the Celtics feel this too that they might actually have another level to go to and the only hindrance would be the fact that they have this huge lead for the one seed and they don’t

Really have a shitload of urgency um they’re in an incredible spot right now at least to win the East and with Denver kind of staring at at them they know they could play with Denver and uh this is the most optimistic I’ve been as a Celtic fan since’

08 okay what do you think of the hesitation because there seems to be like real National hesitation on them I get texts from people and be like you really think they’re that good and I was like I I think they’re that good but I your concerns yeah because I have the

Same concerns because it does feel like the right kind of street fighting team you know like a the type of team that heat had last year the type of Team the Knicks on paper could have when all their guys come back just a gritty physical team that turns into an ugly

Game that’s decided in the last five minutes um I guess it would be the hesitation and then porzingis would be the other thing what am I getting from him even yesterday Joe Mass has him out there against the Knicks there’s two and a half minutes left they’re up 16 and porzingis is running

Around I’m like just take them out I don’t just every minute that this guy is healthy as we get toward April especially with this giant Lee just I don’t want to see him in any danger ever he’s too important so I I guess those and then Joe Maz just the fact that he

Hasn’t been there Joe Maz right now for any coach over 100 games has the highest winning percentage in the history of the league by like almost half a point so it’s tough to nitpick I think the thing the best thing you can say about the Celtics is you’re really nitpicking if

You’re looking for stuff they have a lot of answers in a lot of different directions and if the reasons you’re going to ding them are they’re too Tatum’s too young I don’t love their bench is poor zingis going to stay healthy like those you’re nitpicking that would be the case for

Them lowest corner three percentage I try to find stuff I try to find stuff about about okay when it’s late and we know they have the highest three-point frequency of any team they take the most for their possessions I did this I think a couple weeks ago

Where I talked about Tatum on the isolation drives yeah and that his free throw rate is way below all the other guys like people in Minnesota think ant doesn’t get calls and a lot of that becomes like ant doesn’t try for the call right the way Alca does yeah Tatum

Doesn’t try for the call the way some of these other guys do and clearly the last couple years like Tatum’s drives and his aggressiveness and you know and I think about the street fighting part of it I kind of agree but then I think back and being

Like hey 27 other teams would take their playoff failures and if they were really soft like don’t they lose to Philly last year when they’re down 3-2 or Milwaukee game six yeah or go back to the Milwaukee like think about some of the Tatum resume games that he has for his

Playoff career already and you’re going to tell me like that guy can’t get it done by the way Tatum still 25 years old right now yeah and by the way like the other part when you start packaging it all in together because like I saw somebody the other day on one of the

Shows say hey this group’s been together a long time and it’s like well not this version of the group and if you’re if you’re taking if you’re knocking Tatum and brown for 18 and not beating LeBron in game seven like that’s that’s they were just ahead of schedule with some of

This stuff you want to talk about bad top of a conference go back and look like that 18 East they probably should have lost to Washington well they definitely should have lost to Washington uh I I I couldn’t believe at the time that they did beat Washington so there’s there’s these arguments that

I’ll hear but then I think like think of all these other guys that like have nothing on their resume nothing like Tatum’s game against Milwaukee that you bring up or the game 751 points last year and yeah I thought they lost to a better team in Golden state two years

Ago in the finals and the offense got clunky and everything but like when I look at hey do they settle too much here what are some of the clutch numbers saying like a lot of the numbers still look really really good so this fatal flaw of the settling three when they’re

Closing at a game I don’t know how you’re 45 and 12 if it’s as big of a problem as the way it’ss talked about and like you bring up the Nicks and going okay you know maybe when OG’s back and whatever ends up happening with Randall and I know they

Had him working out in Street Clos the other day but like that’s still a TBD with Randall OG seems far more optimistic about when he comes back and some of these Nick Numbers you can say with two different players is similar to Phoenix but you know run through the top

Eight in both conferences if you go to the expanded standings the Knicks are 12- 21 against teams over 500 it’s the worst record of any top eight seed in either conference and I know what a Knicks fan would say is well we’re not that team anymore okay but can we see it

For three weeks yeah that’s all can can you just see put together a really good month with a bunch of bunch of nice win and by the way New York had their incredible stretch even missing some of those people which is just a credit to Brunson and how good he’s been but I

Don’t know if it’s fear or intelligence that tells you they can’t beat a Knicks team in the playoffs there’s two things that are just just so people know that aren’t really focused or watching them that much there’s two things that are just completely different about them now

From last year one is that they’re more malleable than they were last year right they can go a little smaller they can go a little bigger um the porzingis thing there’s just games when he’s just the other team has no guy to defend him and if they try to do that fluky [ __ ]

Like put a smaller guy on him the Celtics just immediately punish him I think Joe Maz has been really good about that this season like you’re not we’re not letting you guard porzingis that way we’re going to immediately take advantage of that um the other piece is Tatum where there’s been subtle differences

Them we were watching I was watching my uh my old college roommate John Rashard was in town we were watching the Knicks last night and we’re were just talking about J Rich Tatum Tatum uh fitchburg’s own John Rashard um we’re talking about how Tatum bullies people a couple times a

Game in a way that he just didn’t do last year and I was thinking about him as a power forward in the 2020s right you don’t think of Tatum as a power forward like what is he he’s just a forward right I know we don’t really have positions anymore we basically have

Guards Wings he could play two guard if you wanted to you know like if it was a weird lineup but yeah you’re right he’s a forward so he hits threes he gets to the line he can post up he can pass out of double teams he can

Rebound he can switch on defense and he’s durable but he also can play basically four positions for them because they could even play him at small ball Center they don’t really do it that much but I do think there’s a world in the playoffs where they could but I was thinking

About the power forwards we grew up with right so you go back to the early 2000s Duncan kg seaweb Dirk Rasheed Elton BR Pal Gasol Jermaine O’Neal Antoine Walker Kenya Martin Jawan Howard like there was was a real position with guys who they could post up they rebounded they usually had 10 plus

Rebounds a game they uh they could protect the basket and now you go into 2020s who are the power forwards it’s like Giannis is definitely a power forward even though he’s probably really a center Tatum LeBron’s I guess a power forward now he’s or he’s a power point

Guard I don’t know what the [ __ ] he is Randall Lorie marinan towns Pao Aaron Gordon Jabari Smith maybe Jaylen Johnson but how many forwards do you think are averaging eight rebounds a game right now if you had to guess I don’t know off the top of my head go ahead

Seven Giannis Randall Tatum marinin Jaylen Johnson John Collins and Jabari Smith n a game John Collins randomly made it but my point is Tatum is is this kind of stealth asset as this kind of 2020s power forward and I think we’re going to see it in Team USA too because

You need those forwards who can you know rebound but also shoot and he’s a really unique asset and if you’re going to make the MVP case for him which I would not because I think there’s better players part of the reason this team is special is because

How malleable he is now the fact that he can rebound he can defend he can jump out he’s a two-way guy and I think his little gross in all these different spots the stats don’t really sum it up his stats are pretty similar to where they were last year but ey test it’s

Different so that’s been a little Tatum rant PR is the same win shares per 48s almost to the dot the box score plus minus stuff is is like the same percentages shooting all pretty much similar he’s awesome um and and the only the only problem is is that he’s not

Ever somebody that people would say is the best player in the league and for Boston or for whatever but if he ends up being the fifth or sixth or whatever like hell I used to have a hard time with people put him ahead of Booker um

But this year I think you probably have to even though I wish maybe Tatum a little of that Booker like whatever goes on in Booker’s head that would be maybe the perfect version of Tatum but then it it just goes too far with like oh he’s

Not this’s not like I just hear from my buddies I’m like you guys are a little spoiled with him just he’s 25 just has to be mentioned conly he’s not the guy he’s gonna be yet oh I don’t know I like whatever this is this is incredible my

Bigger issue was like the jayen brown stuff okay uh it kind of dawned on me this year refill my Michael Jordan Dream Team cup before you go into this how how long is this going to go it’s not going to go long because I’m going to Pivot it

Back to you because you you watch it uh more intently than I do but like Jaylen has smashed through any ceiling I’ve ever had for him I’ve said that before like the draft early on okay he’s he’s pretty good but whatever and then it just keeps going up and up and you know

I voted him all NBA last year and I didn’t really I know there’s some of the analytics Community would say that he actually wasn’t as good or you know whatever that’s fine but I’ve really tried to like pay attention to him more this year because I figur with porzingis

Coming in like you just knew he was going to have less opportunities and so some of the numbers across the board are down because he just has less shots he is as good as anybody of making something out of some where I’m like what oh it went

In again there are so many possessions with him where I’m like he’s just going to kind of pull up and turn around and hit a jumper from there like if you freeze framed it as he’s Midway through the move You’ be like oh my God this is

Going to hit the backboard right and then if you’re being on you’re just like it went in again it’s a no he’s a no no yes guy but I don’t know that he does a lot of like he may take the pressure off everybody else because he can find ways

To score when everything’s broken down but I I think he’s really kind of doing his own thing and we’re this many years into it and I wonder if they get stopped again in the East if if that’s the like you know cuz it was happening before eay

And the team had turned around remember how miserable it was watching them a couple years ago and they had one of the alltime turnarounds end up in the NBA Finals nobody’s talking about breaking up Jaylen and and um and Tatum anymore and that’s not necessarily what I’m even

Presenting here but I look at him and I’m I’m consistently confused by this incredibly productive talented player in a way where I’m like is is it as good good as the scoring is is it you know by the way they’re winning a million games so it’s not like there’s this piece

That’s you know screwing them up and they’re flirting with just being over 500 being a four seed I I don’t know I’m asking you what do you think it is that I’m seeing because it just feels a little different or maybe it’s always been this way and I’m just finally

Admitting like yeah he’s an awesome player but I don’t know I can’t tell if you’re making the case for him or against him exactly then you listened cuz that’s what it feels like so here’s the best thing I’ll say about Him you probably knew some girl in in college or after college who carried herself in a way that made her more attractive there’s something about the demeanor that was part of the package perfect segue just an aspen for a few days you’re like are you serious and like or is it the outfit

Right he carries himself like he’s one of the best guys on a team that’s won five titles you’re right he has the confidence and a little bit of a Swagger of somebody who’s actually done more than he’s probably done on the other hand he’s done a lot like he’s

Played I think he’s played a 100 playoff games already what’s see it’s it’s like 109 I have it up here I’ll grab it yeah he’s he’s been in a lot of big games he’s played against a lot of great players he’s held his own a few times in

In the 22 finals he was probably the best guy in the Celtics how many playoff games uh we are at 112 112 playoff games guys guy has been in all kinds of situations he plays in front of one of the best home crowds and we kind of know

What his faults are to me he’s another 9010 Guy where 90% of it’s great and the 10% is really glaring and he’ll have these moments where there’ll be a breakaway the ball’s going the other way and he’s dribbling and you just like oh he’s gonna get caught from behind and

They’re going to poke it out of bounds I know it’s gonna happen then it does and you’re like oh man Jaylen the 10% is really glaring with him everybody’s got the 10 per though I my thing is he’s not his 10% because his 10% is like it’s a

Sating 10% of fully admit it um is he overpaid of course is LeBron overpayed would you want to play LeBron $50 million this year you probably wouldn’t I think most guys when you get over 40 they’re probably going to be overpaid unless it’s one of the five best guys in

The league I still think him and Tatum together the fact that those guys really like playing with each other and care about each other that’s a really important piece of this because even there’s got to be that little that little twinge sometimes where it’s like why isn’t it me why

Isn’t this my team I don’t think he thinks that way I think those guys look out for each other I was told a story the All-Star game when everybody was going for each other for the MVP it hit that point and I was barely watching the

All-Star game but you know the East was up 20 so Dame was in there in Halbert and and Jaylen Brown was going for it and Tatum went to Doc Rivers and he said give Jaylen my minutes I want to see him get MVP I think those guys like each other like

I to me that’s a that’s a real that’s a real Dynamic those guys have grown up together and I think they look out for each other that was talked about when they weren’t playing well right it was those guys don’t whatever it is it doesn’t matter and I think it’s a really

Good point there although as an aside is it actually uncool to pursue the All-Star game MVP now well maybe it is I don’t know go to the records yeah that’s true by I don’t want pursuing I want a definitive Bill Simmons Line in the Sand in basketball history where where an

All-Star MVP no longer means anything just give me the Year tell me when it starts because I do not want to hear I think it started this year no it’s already started previous years I’m just saying I need you to be the judge jury on this one go back and look because

When somebody’s like debating somebody same thing as the gold medal thing which is my least favorite the sooner you have to bring up somebody’s Olympic gold medal for their Hall of Fame case the worst their case is yeah but if you’re going to tell me like it’s not the

Numbers it’s not the titles but he won All-Star MVP in 2028 I’m allstar MVP should not be used ever well I from there was a time when it did matter you kind of had to have one in the 20th century yeah exactly exactly but so I like the theory some a couple people

Were saying how when Kobe when his career was kind of running to an end and he stopped making the All-Star game that’s when the All-Star Game turned into something else because he really cared about it and it made other team other guys care because how much much he

Cared and then Westbrook always really cared about it so there’s always at least two guys that were like I care trying to win and then other guys are trying now it’s like we don’t have those guys anymore by the way I’ll give Westbrook this he can’t be on a court

And not want to always I’m gonna try to get 20 rebounds yeah I’m gonna try can I get 50 points he can’t there’s no off button for him so that the All-Star game is made for him if he gets back in one which is probably not going to happen he

Would win MVP but yeah I mean it’s back to the Jaylen thing like would you rather have J brown or two Derek whites two Derek whites well I love Derek white I the bigger question to me is is Derek white does he mean more to this team than Jaylen Brown does and I

Think you could make the case he does and there’s a lot of advanced metrics that support it but I still really value the Tatum Brown as a combo and I like rooting for it I like that we’re in year seven or eight we’ve been talking about

In this podcast for a while I’m with you I think if if they blow it this year if this year is disappointing in some way and they’re looking at you know having to pay White having to pay Drew holiday also having to pay Jaylen 50 million I

Don’t see how all three of those guys come back if they don’t Win because they’re gonna pay white I don’t know what Drew’s Market is and he sacrificed the most yeah I mean numbers but like look at the free agent list that’s what I mean and I you could just be a situation where somebody’s like absolutely here’s 120 million for three

Years our team option year three I have a monologue ready to go where I’m at the point after this trade deadline because we had already gone for like three hours or four hours I don’t know if there’s a bad contract anymore in the NBA you know I mean yes there is Jordan

P Jordan but it’s not about the existing contracts it’s hey we’re a bad team and we have cap space and we we have to spend it on somebody so even though if you can’t look at Drew holiday’s production and go this guy’s slowing down to your point he’s made the Ray

Allen sacrifice he’s so much fun to watch uh on defense both him and white just some of the some of the team defense stuff they do I would encourage people to watch the two guards when the Cs really have it dialed up he’s such a smart like jumping off people jumping

Back jumping in the passing Lanes coming back out coming down for a double team like his instinct I never really watched him this carefully night after night after night but his instincts on what to do and then the way he protects the rim came and white I’ve never seen two guards protect

The rim like this like they they’re they’re two of the best shot walking guards of the past 10 years and they’re both on the same team so anyway there’s a lot of pressure on this season I think because of the price tag that’s coming and you know teams are going to

Come after Jaylen if if they don’t win the title cuz because there’s not a lot of guys like him who have the kind of experience he has in the production Rand I feel like he’s still really good like he’s still really good it’s like Rand when the Knicks fans complain about

Randle it’s like do you miss the 24 and9 every night now that he’s not playing and you’re watching precious shua airballing 11f Footers from the fouine do you miss Randall now it’s nice to have the 24-9 every single Night

The Ringer’s Bill Simmons is joined by Ryen Russillo to check in on the Celtics as they sit comfortably on top of the Eastern Conference.

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