What’s amazing is that the Warriors themselves are third in 3-point frequency. But because more than half of them come from two players, their spacing doesn’t stress defenses beyond their breaking point the way Boston’s distributed attack does. Curry is still amazing, and Klay Thompson can still make it rain, but Golden State is league average or worse in 2-point shooting, free throws and turnovers.
https://theathletic.com/5315474/2024/03/04/celtics-nba-future-three-point-shooters-sloan-analytics-conference/?source=user_shared_article Hollinger: Are the Boston Celtics the NBA’s new future? + Sloan Conference takeaways
by granttheginger
6 Comments
I agree. I am constantly frustrated by us getting burned by threes shot by relative nobodies. It’s not just that they are not Steph or Klay level of players, they aren’t even primary scorers on their own team. But we leave them wide open on the wings or in the corners, and they just rain threes on us while our perimeter defenders are desperately trying to clog up the lane.
Then, on the other end, we are far too reliant in Steph to stretch the defense. He’s still doing it, but he has hi off nights, and it’s a lot to ask from him on a nightly basis. Klay has always been streaky, but his cold streaks are much more frequent these days. No one else on the team really scares opponents, and they are already limiting Kuminga by providing help when he posts up, and his handle is nowhere near good enough to work his magic against a help defender. Wiggs is AWOL again, just as his game was starting to come around, and no one else can hit from distance enough to make a difference.
Don’t feel like reading the article. But just going off of what is said here, there isn’t anything new or eye opening. Pretty much stuff we generally know and are aware of both on the Warriors front and the Celtics.
Here is what I will say about the Celtics. I really want to see them healthy playing a healthy Nuggets in the playoffs. It would make for a very interesting case Study imo. Boston is clearly the more talented overall. And not just talent. They have a well built/structured team. At least their starting unit. The big question mark for me is Tatum. Is He really one of. THOSE guys or not? Can a historically good roster with a top 10 but maybe not quite a “generational” player in Tatum beat an all time great player with a Really good but not great talent around him comparatively.
History tells us you lean toward the generational talents. But I’m curious to see it.
It’s an issue because we only have 2 guys who provide spacing. Turnovers have always been an issue because of how they play. Free throw shooting – that’s an issue, many guys just are not good at it, especially the younger ones.
Honestly spacing has been a huge issue all season. It’s just something they didn’t address in the offseason. While unloading Poole’s contract was necessary & CP3 being a much better player, he just doesn’t provide the spacing that Poole did.
This is exactly why actively and willingly separating them in lineups and limiting their minutes together in lineups, as has been the case lately, is so perplexing. Not only does it hinder both Steph and Klay themselves (less so Klay because he’s a weirdo who shoots significantly better when tightly guarded than he does with room lol) in terms of making their defensive coverage more suffocating, but less spacing = fewer driving lanes for JK and Wiggs, which results in even fewer closer to the basket 2s and instead forces tough middies, which are some of the least efficient shots.
Fortunately, Wiggs has found his 3 ball again but his volume is still very low compared to what it has been the last couple of seasons so while he still needs to be guarded on the perimeter, teams expect him to drive more often now and so even with him in the lineup, he doesn’t force *quite* the same stretching of the floor because while teams won’t go full sag, they also won’t fully sell out to the perimeter to him either when they’re in they’re in the halfcourt offense.
Edit to add: this has also been one of the more frustrating thing about Moody getting such little run, because he has a very real potential to be a sharpshooter. His inconsistent play this season has had his shot incredibly wonky, but in preseason at the beginning of the season, when he was playing regularly, he was on fire. And David Thorpe, an NBA skills coach and a cohost of one of (in my opinion) the best hoops pod from a quality standpoint, TrueHoop podcast said this about Moody in his season forecast (this was in preseason, before suspensions and injuries obviously, so keep that in mind re: his picking the Warriors to win the West):
> **Moses Moody’s a shooter**
>
> Just 21 years old, Moody has the look of someone who could take his place among the great shooters. The Warriors need him to do little more than hit open 3s and play defense with gusto. Through one week, he’s doing both. Sure, it’s just 7-of-17 from 3, and I’m not suggesting he put money down on a 20,000-square-foot mansion in the Bay area.
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> A second unit run by Paul, with a slasher in Kuminga, a shooter in Moody, a screener-passer-defender in Šarić, and any of the Warriors starters gives the Warriors a very solid rotation. Plus, they have Gary Payton II and Trayce Jackson-Davis, a four-year college player who’s a legit NBA big man to my eyes.
>
> Here’s the kicker: Paul is shooting six percent from 3–not 60 or 16, but six. There’s no way that’s a trend. He’ll get way better. Moody as a “laser” (what some teams call great shooters in scouting reports) is a game-changer—one that makes me feel very comfortable picking the Dubs to win the West.
Had he gotten even slightly consistent run, he could have developed into a legitimate spacing threat. As it stands now, despite playing brilliantly the last several games (and proving he’s been a baller capable of contributing this whole time), he’s not yet built up a reputation of any kind because he’s played so little. I absolutely understand this roster has forced Kerr into tough choices and there’s been many situations where there are no right choices and whatever he chose came with a gamble, but just feel like a missed opportunity to develop a 3rd floor spacer.
It’s true but doesn’t give us anything to work with.
Should Curry and Klay shoot fewer 3s? No. Should the other guys shoot more 3s? Mostly no, maybe a little bit from Podz and CP3.
Should we try to feature more 3s and spacing in lineups? We already are, by starting Draymond at C and reducing Looney’s minutes. Saric can shoot, but has struggled too much in other areas lately.
Should we get better 3PT shooting personnel? I guess. The salary cap rules make that difficult.
The whole league has learned to shoot threes and for years now rookies that spent their entire competitive ball playing lives under Steph’s 3pt era have been getting drafted. We’ve still got the best ever but we need more. Draymond hitting them in the first half is a start but Kuminga needs to get his % up, Podz needs some self creation and a quicker catch and shoot trigger, Dray needs to shoot in the second halves of games, and Wiggins needs to play again.