Atlanta Hawks season reset, Bogdan Bogdanovic, NCAA Tournament, 2024 NBA Draft, Phoenix Suns preview

Atlanta Hawks season reset, Bogdan Bogdanovic, NCAA Tournament, 2024 NBA Draft, Phoenix Suns preview

On today’s show the Hawks have 14 games remaining in the season including one coming up on Thursday we’ll get into how things have shaken out so far how they might look at in the future plus NCA tournament stuff a preview of Hawk Suns and much more and all that is on the

Way you are locked on Hawks your daily Atlanta Hawks podcast part of the locked on podcast Network your team every Day Hello friends welcome to episode 1678 of the lot on Hawks podcast I your host Brad Roland coming to you on a Wednesday evening into Thursday Today Show by the folks at FanDuel Sportsbook and right now if you’re a new customer get $200 in bonus Bets with any winning $5 bet at

Fand Sportsbook that’s 200 bucks if your bet wins and the place to go is fanduel.com lockon to get started also should encourage you at the top of the podcast to make us your first listen each and every day check us out and subscribe to this podcast anywhere you

Get your podcast places like apple podcast and Spotify and YouTube Etc I should lead off with this uh I apologize if there’s a little bit of background noise I have a bit of a Calamity on my hands at home no uh issues there just some unavoidable background stuff right

Now and work being done so my apologies on that but hopefully it’s not too bad for the listeners on this podcast and of course it’s been a while I’ve actually done a full-on check-in and took stock with where the Hawks stack up so I’ll start with that the top of the podcast

And later on we’ll get into kind of a preview of hawks Suns on Thursday evening as well as some NCA tournament stuff through the through the lens of the NBA draft it’s been very busy on the show recently as well we did full coverage of the back-to-back in Los

Angeles on Sunday and Monday prior to that games in Portland and Utah NBA drops up with Ben Fifer last week Etc and please catch up on all that in the archive with that out of the way two mail that questions that kind of uh dive

Into one Central Topic at the top of the podcast so firstly a question from Wayne who says can you go through the schedule and project how many games you think the Hawks will win the rest of the season um before I do this I will give the giant caveat about roster availability because

Of course right now the Hawks are very banged up and that kind of makes things challenging to Project based on when guys come back how how they come back who stays out who comes back all that stuff um the biggest one of course that we not we do not currently know as of

Wednesday March 20th when Troy young will be back or he’ll come back at all um his surgery was about three weeks ago at this point and he he was supposed to be reevaluated in four weeks so we’ll find out in about a week probably or so that’s just reevaluation however not

Return so keep that in mind for the most part I will assume that Trey isn’t going to play that much at the end of the season he might come back at some point but you can’t beg on coming back for a little while longer and that is of

Course a huge factor in projecting things moving forward then you throw in the fact that sad Bay is out for the year as one of the top top eight guys on the team that’s a big loss it helps that aong would just came back that’s a very

Very positive thing but buffkin is still out for a while longer Jaylen Johnson as well talk about later on it’s out for Thursday’s game you get the idea there’s all kinds of uncertainty so it’s a little bit hard and also your you know opponent opponent uncertainty too some

Of these games the Hawks have been playing not necessarily the last couple games but before that you know Portland had a bunch of injuries uh Utah had had a couple necessarily but you know before that teams missing their the best players it is March basketball most

Teams are banged up on some level right now so keep all of that in mind and uh just take that uh with a grain of salt on some level then you have the actual schedule so there’s 14 games remaining I would say seven of them which is half the schedule are pretty clearly

Situations where the Hawks are going to be underdogs significantly unless something majorly changes with roster availability on both sides those games are the following you have Phoenix on the road on Thursday you have to play Boston twice more Milwaukee again at Dallas at Denver and then at

Minnesota I’ll be very clear about this that does not mean that you’re going to lose all seven in fact you would not the most likely scenario is not losing all seven by any means but there’ll be solid underdogs in probably all of those games especially when you

Factor in the opponent and where the games are going to be played then there are three more games where I would say the Hawks are going to be in pretty challenging spots winable for sure and probably underdogs I would guess but not by a ton uh these these games are a

Little bit easier though than the other seven I just mentioned one of those is at Chicago then they have a home game against Miami and then they’re at the Pacers so those are three games where the Hawks might be under dogs but it’ll be kind of close then finally you have

Four games where the Hawks project to be pretty solid favorites unless there’s a roster disaster home for Charlotte home for Portland home for Detroit and then home for Charlotte again so that’s four games against three of the worst teams in the league and they’re all home games

Now I am aware I can already hear people pushing back on this the Hawks are 0 two against the against the Hornets this year I understand that I’m not saying otherwise and just like just like I said the Hawks are not going to probably lose all those seven of those games they

Might not win all four of these that’s what that’s part of the the schedule nothing is a given in the NBA as we’ve seen the Hawks just went to LA and won as n and a half Point favorites by sorry underdogs by a wide margin just a few

Days ago stuff is fluid in the league but those four matchups are very favorable let’s say overall as of right now as I’m recording this podcast the Hawks have the ninth most difficult schedule in the league by opponent winning percentage the rest of the way

Um so keep that in mind it’s not super super super difficult but again half the games they’ll be underdogs of significance in then three more tough ones and then four pretty easy ones but I answer that question first but it kind of informs the second question so the

Second question comes from Sarah who says what do the projection systems say about the hawk chances to make the playin and also make the playoffs so this is before the NBA games tonight but ESPN’s BPI projects the Hawks to finish six and eight in their last 14 games

That brings them to 36 and 46 that’s a pretty reasonable projection given what I just said um you know if you told me the Hawks go two and five in the in the seven really hard games three and one in the four easy games maybe one- two in

The semi- reasonable games that’s six and eight so that seems kind of in line with a reasonable projection now the Hawks could go nine and five I wouldn’t be stunned if the Hawks went three and 11 I wouldn’t be that surprised given their current roster so none of that is

A given but as a 14 game projection I think it’s reasonable and that’s kind of where most projection systems are right now to have the Hawks finishing 36 and 46 on the year ESPN also gives the Hawks a 96.1% chance to make at least the plane

And basically to make the plan at this point in time because they’re not going to be having a chance to be in the top six so there’s that the Hawks have a four and a half game right lead right now on the Nets as I record this podcast

So let’s say the Hawks finish exactly where the projection systems have them that’s with 36 wins the next would have to go 10 and three in their last 13 games to make the plan and there is essentially no that Brooklyn is capable of doing that I’m not saying it’s

Impossible but 10 and three for this net team with the way they’re playing recently is an uphill battle so if the Hawks do go six and eight they’re almost certainly going to be in the plan of course it wouldn’t be shocking if the Hawks went 4- 10 um but even then if

They went four- 10 let’s say the that’s still have to go eight and five to catch them and eight and five is a lot better than net have been playing in recent days so it is not 100% as the systs indicate you know there’s always a difficulty for

Some people in seeing what like 90 something % chance versus 100% chance there’s still a chance the Hawks miss the play in but right now they are significant favorites to make it both in the projections and also in my opinion that backs that up just because they

Have a huge lead with a very little uh time remaining basically so the last question there from Sarah comes about the playoffs themselves so even with a 96% chance to make the play in ESPN has the Hawks with a 14.7% chance to make the eight team actual playoffs and part of that is

Because it is quite likely if the Hawks back to play in that they’ll be the 10 seed now it’s not for sure but probably they’re going to be the 10 seed at this point in time if you’re the 10 seed you have to win back-to-back Road games to make the

Playoffs it’s a small sample size so far in play in history but no team has ever done that no team has ever gone two and0 as a 10 seed and actually gotten in the playoffs it’s going to happen at some point but it’s not happened so far and

The Hawks would in theory be underdogs in both games now I will say if Trey came back and was and the Hawks were relatively healthy I’m not sure they underdogs against Chicago on the road I maybe they are by a point or two but if

They have Trey that’s a that’s a big if but if they had Trey Jaylen Ana all those guys back everyone but sadik basically that’s not a real Underdog situation but the problem is the next game after that they probably would be underdogs now there is a scenario I will

Say that the Hawks would be a set up better as inity than most teams because they would have Trey coming back and they have more Talent than a lot of teams but also Philadelphia might be in the playin without Joel and be and if the Hawks had Trey and the the

Sixers didn’t have B the Hawks are better than Sixers without B so that’s not even an opinion that’s just the way things have gone this year so that’s a long way away right now but um I think that’s it doesn’t seem crazy to me I

Think if the Hawks get in the play in I would give them a little bit better chance to make the playoffs than these systems indicate but still being the 10 seed it is unlikely by definition that you make the playoffs it’s possible and the Hawks might be set up pretty well on

That and by the way the Hawks have been a pretty great playing team it’s a small temp size again but they’ve been really good in the situations previously last year they beat the heat on the road soundly in the playin game so uh it’s all what it is but we’ll have more of

This later on but as of right now at the end of today’s show we’ll talk about you know the Suns game on Thursday but that’s kind of where we are at this stage and we’ll have more of that as we get going down the stretch of the season

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Nets all right and with our mailbag theme of today’s episode I got a question about the NCA tournament through the lens of the NBA draft that comes from Jeff who says I am not a college basketball person so can you tell me who to watch for the Hawks for

The draft this week first I would suggest listening to the shows actually two-part episode that I did with Ben Fifer NBA draft expert about a week ago focused heavily on the college prospects because the tournament was looming I will say as I said on that podcast

There’s a lot of non- colge prospects in this class that are pretty interesting like a lot of the top guys are either from overseas or from Julie goodnight so keep that in mind but there are still plenty of guys to watch during the tournament and from there I put together

A list of some guys to at least note and pay attention to by the NCA tournament region that they are playing in so I will begin with the South because that’s the easiest and best draft based region this year in the NCA tournament bracket and I’ll go with Kentucky first they are

Loaded as usual with prospects Reed Shepard and Rob Dillingham are Lottery guys or at least top 20 guys for most people they’re Lottery guys for me they also have uh DJ Wagner Justin Edwards um Zan iich also very intriguing as a potential first- round pick and then

Four or five guys from there that are like potential second round picks Aaron Bradshaw Antonio Reeves etc etc so Kentucky is loaded as they always are with Talent um Duke has guys as well Kyle filipowski is a hawks potential Target lottery pick for me very intriguing kind of combo big

Seven-footer Jared McCain top 20 guy for me very talented guard tyres Proctor is draftable so Duke Has Talent as well um this is one where I’ll give to caveat now I’m recording this podcast before they play in the first four so they could lose literally tonight and this

Could be irrelevant so keep that in mind but Colorado is in the is in the first four they have Cody Williams is actually going to be a lottery pick plus Tristan D Silva and kri Simpson so keep that in mind if they make a run they’re a team

To watch U Marquette has Tyler Kik and Oso uaro both guys can be top 40ish picks in this class also Cameron Jones is a draft Twitter favorite that I enjoy as well Jamal Shed from Houston the list goes on but that’s a pretty interesting region in a lot of different ways in the

South um to the West only two guys in the western region are definite first round picks for me and and they’re actually on the same team it’s jacobe Walter and Eve Missy from Baylor Walter is more of a wing Miss is a big they could be in the Hawks range

And pretty interesting guys so keep an eye on them North Carolina is the number one seed in that region and they are not really a prospect team this year uh Harrison Ingram maybe a second round pick talented guy RJ Davis is maybe a two-way kind of guy a good a good guard

In college basketball for sure I would know Jaylen washhington is a sleeper but not a great Prospect team for number one seed um Don Holmes from Dayton is a potential first round pick I would say he’s an older guy but certainly very talented big um has become a lot more

Well-rounded better shooter than he used to be Etc um also Baylor has Jaylen bridges in addition to the other guys I mentioned before has a pretty interesting Prospect Arizona’s got like five or six guys but they’re all kind of in that late first maybe probably second

Round range for me um pel Larson Kad Johnson KJ Lewis kylin Boswell and Caleb love formerly of North Carolina Clemson has PJ Hall who’s an interesting second round pick kind of big man um tyion Grant Foster from Grand Canyon is very old but a pretty interesting

Prospect I think he’s 24 years old right now so a lot of guys in that region only two though I would say are first rounders and maybe a third with the Ron Holmes um to the east region real quickly uh Yukon is the number one overall seed in the tournament they are

Obviously talented and they have two pretty much definite top 20 guys Stefan Castle lottery pick for me Donovan kingan also might be a lottery Pick and he’d be interesting for Atlanta as with Castle so those are guys to definitely watch for the first round for the Hawks further down the board second round

Picks for me Alex cariban and cam Spencer draftable Tristan Newton as well potential guy that I like as kind of a sleeper guy um probably they have five of the top seven or eight guys in the whole region for me draft wise are on the same team and they’re number one

Seat so not a huge surprise um Illinois has two guys Teran Shannon who definitely has some offc Court concerns that I will talk about at a later date not today but he is a good college basketball player good Prospect offc Court concerns for sure um Coleman Hawkins is draftable a guy in second

Round probably Iowa state has Milan momchilovich who is a bucket to be sure he’s he’s not afraid to shoot uh Jackson Robinson from uu as a prospect John El Davis from FAU interesting enough Al like Tucker Dees from Drake as well uh coach’s son there but also a very good

Prospect Janai broom from Auburn could be a second round pick Jaylen Williams yes another Jaylen Williams from Auburn this year and then Jaden Le from San Diego State is a guy that I’ve always enjoyed as well lastly regionwise is the Midwest and the biggest name there is Dalton connect from Tennessee he has

Been having a ridiculous season for Tennessee he’s very old and also is coming off of being in a D2 program literally last year but he has been an All-American level player score three level score I say shooter really talented guy um he’s definitely the biggest guy in this region Virginia have

My personal favorite guy and R Ryan Dunn but they already lost in the first four unfortunately so he’s an awesome defensive prospect we’ll talk about him more later on uh Kansas was going to have Kevin mler who’s a potential first round pick but he’s actually going to be

Out for the season now unfortunately so that’s a guy that could have been in the mix is not going to be in the mix anymore this week they do have Johnny Fury who’s a freshman potential for first round pick good size good shooter good athlete could be a first- round

Pick again as I mentioned before kind of a late Riser uh Zack Edy is very very polarizing in NBA draft circles I know ESPN has him ranked as a top 20 pick I know a lot of people that have him as like a not an undraftable player so like

The the range is extremely wide on Zack I don’t know I don’t know the answer I’m probably a little bit on the Lower Side compared to where ESPN is at least but he is an awesome awesome college basketball player best player in the country but polar rizing Prospect 7374

Super talented we’ll see he is draftable in my opinion not a first round pick for me but there you go uh kraton has a couple guys who are interesting Trey Alexander and Baylor shyan who I think are both like Top 40 for me um I could

See Ryan C brener their Center being a late second round pick more of a backup kind of guy probably longterm but certain interesting South Carolina has Colin Murray Bo who I although he actually said recently he’s going to come back to the dra come back to

College we’ll see on that but I think he might be a top 40 guy if he comes out um inaly Dante from Oregon is a talented player former five star big Dylan Mitchell Isaiah Stevens from Colorado State etc etc so it’s a lot of names throughout you in in one place I

Recommend there’s lots of reading to be done on this Ben who I the podcast recently has been done this Brian schroer a friend of mine been on the show many times as written about the draft I know there’s a new mock draft from s bassini there’s a new mock new

Mock and write up from Jonathan Bon ESPN it’s a good time if you are not ready for draft stuff just yet to go ahead and jump in now but again keep in mind two things number one college is not the strongest part of this draft necessarily but these guys are all interesting still

And number two you want to watch more than just the N tournament it’s a good time to jump in but teams should be watching a lot more previously workouts to come combine stuff etc etc don’t don’t get too carried away I would say but the might have might I want to

Stress might have two picks in the top 20 this year so they’ll be an interesting team if that happens and again it depends on the king’s pick and if you missed that in the past somehow if the Kings miss the playoffs they’ll keep their pick if they make the

Playoffs that pick will become the Hawks pick so keep that in mind for the future okay enough of that we’ll get into uh the rest of the Hawks related program items on today’s podcast including Bogi as a six-man of year candidate and then also a brief look ahead to Thursday’s

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And Wednesday so I got a few responses to this I just want to say that I think Bogi should be a bigger deal for this expanded Year award I think he has a real case right now and that might be called a homer in some respects but I

Promise you I’m not saying that for no reason I’ve looked at the numbers a brief brief brief look here he’s currently the second leading scorer among players who qualify in terms of like basically the only qualifier for six man of the year is playing enough games but also not playing more games as

A starter than on the bench you gotta play more than half your games off the bench which bogie is going to do even though he’s been starting recently he he’s still going to qualify so he’s a second lean scorer of anyone who qualifies that’s number one pretty impressive in itself it’s also it’s

Always been a scoring based award whether it’s be or not put that to the side but it kind of has been Jamal Crawford Lou Williams Jordan Clarkson all those guys um this is an important one for me anyway the Hawks are currently 11.4 points better per 100 possessions

With bogy on the court than when he is off the court that is the single biggest swing on the roster bigger than Trey bigger than Jaylen name your player bogy has the biggest onoff split in a positive direction on the Hawks team and it’s not a fluke they just play better

When plays that’s real also he’s played the most total minutes of any bench player in the league so not only is he playing well when he plays he’s playing a lot of minutes so total contributions You could argue bogy might be the number one on the list I’m not saying he has to

Be number one on the list but he should be a top three or four candidate to me I won’t do the entire list right now but for instance Malik monk is currently a pretty big betting favorite to win the award I do get why he’s there because he

Has a couple of edges on Bogie efficiency wise passing wise this year plus the team is better that’s always a probably shouldn’t matter as much as it does for six man I get it for MVP but anyway I don’t know why he’s a minus 900 favorite at FanDuel and bogie is 100 to

One that Gap doesn’t make any sense I think bogie probably is number two or three for me on my ballot right now if he closed big this year he could win it in my opinion at least on my personal evaluation I’m not saying he’s going to

Win it or that he should win it right now but um I think he should be an actual candidate there’s been a lot of folus on Jaylen a most improved player which by the way that dream I think ended today with him missing the game tomorrow but I think bogie should be a

Real candidate for Sixth Man of the Year and hopefully people will notice that in the coming days I’m not I’m not telling you the bet on them or anything like that but it’s just a noticeable thing that I kind of threw out there because I think it’s kind of gotten lost among

Everything that’s going on with the Hawks and Jay and all that stuff okay last thing the Hawks play in Phoenix on Thursday it’s their final game of the infamous five game West Coast trip that always happens every year the last time by the way this Hawks that the Hawks

Will start a game after 9:00 p.m. all year long is Thursday that’s merciful after this week of late nights also again this is the five game home stand um sorry they have five game home stand that begins on Saturday when they come back so they have this long road trip

They come back and they’re at home for like two weeks so nice little rest bit it’s actually a back toback for Phoenix so the Suns have not played as I’m recording this podcast tonight but they’re going to play tonight against Philadelphia at home they don’t have to

Travel but still it’s a rest Advantage for the Hawks because they will they have already been in Phoenix not playing today it’s Etc on the other side it’s always hard to play that last game on the trip everybody’s going to be gassed it’s game five so it’s kind of a tossup

There uh the Hawks did win the first match up against Phoenix at home uh in early February Trey had a big game in that game 32 and 15 for Trey aong was really good in that game as well plus the Hawks had seven of their top eight

Guys only Hunter was out for them so obviously a different R situation now than it was then Phoenix is quite good on offense they’ve actually been a little bit underachieving on the whole this year I would say because Phoenix is all in to win now they are all in

Financially to win now after trading for Bradley Beal all that stuff it’s not a Suns podcast but keep that in mind um this is a team that is good um and they don’t have a ton of injuries like tonight we won’t know till till tomorrow about tomorrow’s game but for tonight’s

Game they’re only missing Damien Lee former Hawk and Joshua kogi local in product so but those are like not their top top guys keep that in mind as well but they’re basically Elite on offense when KD and Booker both play and they’re even better when have Durant Booker and

Beal playing together which should be the case you would think on Thursday TBD they’re also great at g in the line and and they’re a great shot making team Grayson Allen has having a great shoot shooting season so not a lot of places to hide defensively it’ll be a challenge

Through that aspect but defensively they’re not anything special they’re just average they don’t a lot of they don’t a lot of a lot of free throws which is probably a positive thing for their defense they’re actually not great at creating turnovers or rebounding so the Hawks have some I would say

Physicality advantages potentially in this matchup um again as I record this before they play tonight fix only eight eight in the last 16 games so they’re not playing that well but they are good and having to go to Phoenix it’s tough again before they play tonight I believe

Yeah Phoenix is currently 21- 14 at home this year so not dominant at home but certainly better than you would think and uh all that thrown in the mix and pre Phoenix’s injury report the Hawks are currently nine and a half Point underdogs according to our friends at FanDuel again that could change

Because son’s play tonight but part of that because the Hawks are banged up so in addition to Trey still being out baz being out of course buin still out Griffin Lundy gay Etc Jaylen Johnson is going to be out for this game we do not

Have a full update on Jaylen but he left the game as as I talked about a lot on the podcast um after Monday’s game with the right ankle injury the Hawks list him literally as having a right ankle injury not a sprain they had not done an

Official release on that but he’s not going to play on Thursday so that unfortunately crosses Jay off the list believe is if you do the math on most improved player Pursuits but also just for this game that’s a huge loss he’s obviously currently one of the best

Players U with or without Trey he’s really really good and that’s a huge loss so not having Jaylen or sadique make sure you have to go back to Hunter obviously is the primary forward but you have V Cree probably some guys like West you know West actually Wes is list as

Questionable with illness so he might be able to play Dylan Windler could be an option um V will play a lot I’m sure um Garrison and bogy maybe some aonga with the four it wouldn’t surprise me with j out if they Tred to Kong at the four at

Some point next to Clint or next to Bruno we’ll see but um roster challenges about so it’s a it’s a back toback for Phoenix and not Atlanta that’s a little bit helpful but certainly our friends at FanDuel will have the Hawks painted in a difficult spot nine and a half one under

Dogs by the way this is the third game in a row they will have been nine or nine and a half when underdogs and they went one and two in the first two sorry one and one in the first two so maybe one and two we’ll see how this goes it’s

Certainly a tough spot but not impossible to win by any means against a phoenix team that’s not exactly been dominant at times this season okay that’s all I have on today’s podcast I’ll have a full breakdown of course after the game on Thursday late late late late into the night and into the

Morning on Friday so stay tuned for that please subscribe to the podcast anywhere you get your podcast places like apple Spotify uh YouTube on the video side likes ratings reviews shares all that fun stuff if you are a listener that is new thank you for joining us also if you

Are an audio only subscriber you will also see some bonus content for the folks that locked on Sports Atlanta those will be labeled as the postcast after games just some extra content nothing less for me they have their own YouTube channel but only uh that we kind

Of share the audio Channel they’re on our feeds for some extra content and uh also follow the show on Twitter at Lon Hawks follow me there as well at BTR Rolland I write about the Hawks as well patreon.com BTR Rolland if you are into that at all and uh thank you for

Listening as always hopefully this will be getting to you and into your ears with plenty of time to spare after a long day on Thursday again a 10:30 start Thursday evening so throw on the coffee watch some college basketball in the meantime and then join us for the post

Game festivities thanks for watching everybody I really appreciate it and we’ll see you all next time

Brad Rowland (@BTRowland, DIME on UPROXX) hosts episode No. 1678 of the Locked on Hawks podcast. The show touches on where the Atlanta Hawks stand with 14 games remaining in the 2023-24 season, checks in on the 2024 NBA Draft through the lens of the NCAA Tournament, peeks ahead to Hawks-Suns, and much more.

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Gametime

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FanDuel

New customers, join today and you’ll get TWO HUNDRED DOLLARS in BONUS BETS if your first bet of FIVE DOLLARS or more wins. Visit FanDuel.com/LOCKEDON to get started.

FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN)