Paolo Banchero’s quiet — and loud — improvements [OC Ananlysis]

\[Hey all! I created this long-ass post about a player I think doesn’t get enough mainstream love. This was meant for the general NBA audience at r/nba, so please ignore some of the no-duh stuff for Magic fans, but still wanted to share here. Thanks!\]

In his second year, Paolo Napoleon James Banchero has exploded like [dynamite](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Napoleon_Dynamite).

We are in an age of inflated superstar statistics, so perhaps a stat line of 23/7/5 on 47/37/71 percent shooting splits doesn’t immediately move you. However, only [two players in the modern era](https://stathead.com/basketball/player-season-finder.cgi?request=1&year_min=1980&ccomp%5B1%5D=gt&cval%5B1%5D=22&cstat%5B1%5D=pts_per_g&ccomp%5B3%5D=gt&cval%5B3%5D=5&cstat%5B3%5D=ast_per_g&ccomp%5B4%5D=gt&cval%5B4%5D=6&cstat%5B4%5D=trb_per_g&season_start=2&season_end=2) have ever matched those numbers in their sophomore season: LeBron James and Luka Doncic. Banchero isn’t on that kind of trajectory, to be clear, but it speaks to how far he’s already come since his Rookie of the Year campaign.

Banchero has made both quiet and loud improvements to his game. Specifically, coach Jamahl Mosley challenged him last summer to work on his decision-making and defense. Check and check.

*\[As always, I’ve collected a bunch of illustrative video clips. To see them in-context,* [*go here or click the links throughout the post*](https://www.basketballpoetry.com/p/paolo-banchero-is-a-dynamite-napoleon)*. Thanks!\]*

“My edge comes from my IQ,” Banchero noted in an episode of the NBA’s [Pass the Rock series](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9SvLgMSFew8), and we’ve seen a remarkable increase in the application of that IQ this season. Banchero’s [already-low foul rate has dropped](https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/player/5090#tab-defense_rebounding), his [assist rate has increased from 17% to 25%](https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/player/5090#tab-offensive_overview), and his turnover rate has remained constant despite more touches.

Banchero is an excellent passer for his size. He’s averaging [more than 10 potential assists per game](https://www.nba.com/stats/players/passing?CF=TEAM_ABBREVIATION*E*orl&dir=D&sort=POTENTIAL_AST), more than Jimmy Butler or Julius Randle, and by far the most on the Magic (Franz Wagner is second with fewer than seven). He has touch and vision, as we see on this dime to a spinning Wagner: \[(https://www.basketballpoetry.com/p/paolo-banchero-is-a-dynamite-napoleon)\]

In fact, Banchero is the straight-up point guard for Orlando most of the time. He brings the ball up, leads the team in [touches, time of possession](https://www.nba.com/stats/players/touches?CF=TEAM_ABBREVIATION*E*orl&dir=D&sort=TOUCHES), and [passes made](https://www.nba.com/stats/players/passing?CF=TEAM_ABBREVIATION*E*orl&dir=D&sort=PASSES_MADE), and usually initiates the attack. Now, that offense is no great shakes, but Orlando has a roster of limited offensive personnel, particularly from outside. The Magic launch threes at the[ fourth-lowest rate ](https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/league/shots#tab-offense_shooting_frequency)in the league and are[ bottom-ten in accuracy](https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/league/shots#tab-offense_shooting_accuracy). Defenses barricade the paint to stymie Banchero and the rest of the team’s battering rams. Look at this screenshot of the 76ers completely ignoring Orlando’s guards to put four in the paint against Banchero: \[(https://www.basketballpoetry.com/p/paolo-banchero-is-a-dynamite-napoleon)\]

That is difficult to navigate even for seasoned captains, and Banchero is still learning how to sail into the wind.

One answer: just f\*\*\*\*\*\* slingshot to the rim anyway. Paolo is physical as hell, and he likes to jump at the rim a half-beat earlier than defenders expect, attacking them while they are in illegal guarding position: \[(https://www.basketballpoetry.com/p/paolo-banchero-is-a-dynamite-napoleon)\]

Banchero’s pick-and-roll game has advanced tremendously since his rookie season. Despite his size and athletic gifts, Banchero prefers a slow, methodical approach in the pick-and-roll. He loves to get the switch, survey the defense, and then make his move. Sometimes, that means putting the defender on his back and snaking to a pull-up mid-range jumper like Chris Paul: \[(https://www.basketballpoetry.com/p/paolo-banchero-is-a-dynamite-napoleon)\]

If cracks in the defense show, he’ll just spin and bludgeon, bludgeon and spin, until he gets all the way to the hoop. Seriously, you cannot put a weaker defender on Banchero without an army of reinforcements readily available: \[(https://www.basketballpoetry.com/p/paolo-banchero-is-a-dynamite-napoleon)\]

Banchero has become a better finisher from everywhere on the court. His conversion rates at the rim, from floater range, and on long middies [have gone up a uniform 3%](https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/player/5090#tab-shooting_accuracy)—an uncannily consistent improvement. But his two-point improvements pale compared to what he’s done from deep.

Banchero’s three-pointer has developed tremendously in his second season, and he’s canning 37% of his four attempts per game, up from 30% a year ago. He’s hitting [40% of his catch-and-shoots](https://www.nba.com/stats/player/1631094/shots-dash), a skill that will open up his versatility even more as an off-ball threat. It’s impossible to overstate how important it is to have a viable three-pointer, and having a functional one before he’s even 22 years old gives him a tremendous developmental head start. The pull-up has leveled up, too. His form is still a little unconventional, but this shot is so important to open up the driving lanes he thrives in: \[(https://www.basketballpoetry.com/p/paolo-banchero-is-a-dynamite-napoleon)\]

He’s stepping into his triples with confidence, even when he’s missed a few. In fact, Banchero is one of the more even-keeled young stars in the league. He attributes his calmness to both his mother, Rhonda Banchero (a former WNBA player), and his time under Coach K at Duke. Whatever the reason, Paolo is rarely too up or too down. Don’t forget, this guy went 1-for-33 from deep in February of his rookie year but never lost the confidence to keep firing. 1-for-33! That’s so bad!

That steadiness manifests in other ways, too. Last night, against the red-hot Pelicans, he didn’t score a field goal until a few minutes left in the second quarter. He found other ways to contribute, though, dropping dimes, playing steadfast defense, and attacking the boards. His shot returned in the third quarter, as Banchero edged Zion Williamson en route to a triple-double and comfortable win. (Side note: get better soon, Brandon Ingram!)

And his poise is essential for late-game execution. Like any 21-year-old, Banchero has been up and down in the clutch this season, but he’s certainly not afraid of the moment. Watch him pull a Jimmy Butler on poor Jalen Duren for a game-winning and-one: \[(https://www.basketballpoetry.com/p/paolo-banchero-is-a-dynamite-napoleon)\]

Banchero is far from a finished product. At times, his command of the game takes a breather. He’ll throw himself at the rim for no-hope layup attempts or pull up for a contested 18-footer when he should be pressing a mismatch (he is a bit too mid-range reliant for my tastes right now). But those moments are to be expected for a second-year player with the ball in his hands as often as Paolo, and they’re increasingly few and far between.

There is still room for more finishing craft, as well. Hitting [65% at the rim](https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/player/5090#tab-shooting_accuracy) isn’t a noteworthy weakness, exactly, but a man of his size and skill can and should be better. The Magic’s lack of shooting is part of the problem, and young players often struggle with their layup packages. Right now, Banchero is heavily reliant upon spins and drop-steps, and if those don’t clear the airspace, he can struggle with his touch. He can improve his footwork in the paint to make it easier on himself, but he’ll need to develop a softer shot for friendlier bounces, too.

I’d expect this to be an area of improvement for Banchero in year three. While he isn’t a LeBron-style athlete, he is immensely strong and quick for his size. A little more finesse on finishes would make a big impact.

Banchero is already making an impact with his improved defense. He nearly always guards the other team’s power forward regardless of the name on the back of the jersey, and Mosley does not shy away from siccing Paolo on the toughest matchups. Banchero has spent time guarding Kevin Durant, Julius Randle, Zion Williamson, Jimmy Butler, and more starry names, and he’s held up well.

Saying he’s merely held up may be damning with faint praise; both [D-EPM](https://dunksandthrees.com/player/1631094) and [D-LEBRON](https://www.bball-index.com/leaderboards-tool/) rank him as a slightly above-average defender. The Magic [have a good defense whenever he’s on the floor](https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/player/5090/lineups#tab-four_factors), and while Paolo’s on/off splits don’t inspire, that’s because he’s usually replaced by Jonathan Isaac, Devourer of Offenses.

Banchero isn’t the quickest laterally (being the dimensions of a mid-size SUV will do that), but he is nearly impervious to shoulder blocks. It’s hilarious watching people try to do to him what he does to them. It usually turns out differently: \[(https://www.basketballpoetry.com/p/paolo-banchero-is-a-dynamite-napoleon)\]

The Magic are hoping that Banchero can lead them to a different postseason outcome, too. Orlando is cruising toward a playoff spot—not play-in, playoff. Despite their youth, this team shouldn’t be shaken by the increased scrutiny. Banchero took Duke to a Final Four berth in Coach K’s last season, and he’s said that he received more media attention at that time than he has at any point in the NBA. The Wagner brothers just won a gold medal in the FIBA World Cup. Jalen Suggs [hit a buzzer-beater in overtime](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sx3LuhZOFn8&embeds_referring_euri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bing.com%2F&embeds_referring_origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bing.com&source_ve_path=Mjg2NjY&feature=emb_logo) to send Gonzaga to the NCAA championship game. They have experience in big moments.

Most importantly, the Magic’s physical playstyle should translate well to the playoffs. Sure, they’re young. They won’t be favored if matched against a healthy Cleveland or New York. Non-NBA success aside, the core pieces are 21, 22, and 22 years old. But they are aggressors on offense and predators on defense; they won’t be cowed into passivity by the moment. While the Magic don’t have enough scoring jazz to propel them *too* far in this initial go at the postseason, it’s certainly not crazy to imagine them winning a first-round series.

For that to happen, though, Banchero must step up even more. Given what we’ve seen this season, I’m not going to be the one to tell him he can’t.

by Sikatanan