Keith Smith, who works on the cap projections and for spotrac, [tweeted out his 2024 Cap Space projections](https://twitter.com/KeithSmithNBA/status/1771667737724571844) and notable the Raps weren’t there. His explanation:
> Raptors: Now project to stay over the cap (Olynyk extension, project to keep their own 1st)
So I decided to look into this. I used [Spotrac’s 2024-25 salary table](https://www.spotrac.com/nba/toronto-raptors/cap/2024/), [Real GM’s rookie scale contract estimates](https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/info/rookie_scale/2025), and assumed a 141m 2024-25 salary cap and 172m tax line, as has been reported. I also assume we will use the Second Round Pick exception to sign whoever we draft with the DET SRP. I also assume we keep our pick in this whole scenario.
The Raps have 8 guaranteed contracts for next year, totaling approximately 92.9m. IQ’s cap hold is 12.5m, so that’s 105.4m. The 6th pick is around 6.3m starting salary (and if we jumped up to 1st, that’s 10.5m), and the IND pick will likely be around a 3m starting salary so that’s between 114.7 and 118.9m. So that would leave us with 22.1-26.3m of cap space (depending on where our first lands) and 11 players on roster (plus JFL has 1.9m who is only 150k guaranteed).
The swing pieces here are GTJ and Bruce Brown. If you pick up Brown’s option that’s essentially all your cap space. If you picked up his option and re-signed Gary for around 15m, that puts you at 152.7-156.9m. That leaves you 19.3-15.1m under the tax, but that doesn’t account for IQ’s salary (likely between 25-30m for the first season), so you really would need to save some money here. The roster woud look like:
IQ/GTJ/RJ/Scottie/Poeltl/Gradey/Agbaji/Boucher/Olynyk/McDaniels/Brown/T6 pick/IND pick/DET SRP for 14 spots, but likely over the tax, meaning you need to trade some combination of Boucher/Brown/McDaniels to save money.
Alternatively, you could decline Brown’s option and renounce GTJ. That gives you the 26.3m of cap space, leaving you with:
IQ/RJ/Gradey/Scottie/Poeltl/Agbaji/Boucher/Olynyk/McDaniels/T6 pick/IND pick/DET SRP for 12 spots, leaving you with about 26m for those last 3 spots, and then you can sign IQ.
Take your pick on how you want to play that. Keep in mind in either of these scenarios, our 2025 pick is owed to SAS, top-6 protected again.
EDIT: Realized I somehow didn’t include IQ’s actual salary in the assumption so made some tweaks.
by Cheechers23
11 Comments
McDaniels probably is part of any Bruce/bigger trade as salary filler.
But with Boucher, I don’t know what they can trade him for that isn’t comparable expiring salary.
I’ll just wait for Blake Murphy to write his annual salary cap piece, lol.
If your name isnt Barnes/Quickley/Barrett/Dick – expect them to be off the team in the next 3 years.
It’s a harsh business. Some will be traded, some will be waived, some will be bought out but the tank is just getting revved up and 10 losses upvote parties will be wiped out by 20 loss upvote parties in the next 2 years.
Some of yall think this is almost over lol, it’s only beginning. In 3 years the winning years will feel like a fever dream.
Decline brown’s option and use the money to either bring GTJ back or sign a hield/monk type of player
Basically you wrote an elongated version of telling the raps public that we are fucked unless some guys take massive leaps haha. All aboard the hopefully 25-26, but more realistically 26-27 train
I don’t think it is at all likely that Brown gets his option picked up and he is retained. Either we are opting him in to trade him or declining it to sign him with non-bird for longer but with a lower annual value
It is pretty damn sad that a crappy team like us doesn’t have tons have cap space this offseason considering 2 of our best players (Barnes/IQ) are still on their rookie deals.
What happened to our franchise lol
Brown has pulled a Harden and tanked his value so much that if we pick up his option he’s going to be untradable. GTJ is a wildcard. He will probably want more then he’s worth for a streaky player. Bringing them both back makes no sense because they don’t make this roster better overall for what the contracts are going to be.
Is there anyone who is available in FA that we could actually get for that $26m if you let both go? Or do you just run with a younger roster and hope you find some diamonds in the rough from the G-League?
This shitty ass team is almost tax level? We’re looking at a ten year rebuild
McDaniels , Boucher, Bruce , GTJ will all be gone. We’re aiming to get Claxton, and if we do you can kiss Poeltl goodbye as well. I see us signing a gunner, a back up point guard, and rolling with this crew if we sign Claxton.
If they are over the cap or close, then they’ll pick up Brown. Why not, spend it or lose it.
The interesting question is Gary.