Are The Suns Going To Be A Problem For Denver?

Are The Suns Going To Be A Problem For Denver?

The Fenix Suns win in Denver again the Nuggets get outshot from threo range again and miss a ton of open looks weird variance nothing to worry about or did the Phoenix Suns maybe have something at least for the Nuggets to worry about in the playoffs we’ll break it down here on locked on

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Fanduel.com lockon to get started my name is Matt Moore I’m the senior NBA riter for the Action Network I’m joined by Swip you can follow him on Twitter and on the YouTube on his own YouTube channel at Swip aam you can catch him in the BR app you can catch him on Mile

High on the pickax and roll pod you can catch him everywhere he’s with me today for us to break down the Nuggets lost to the Phoenix Suns um I want to go ahead and jump on this Thursday Edition because this was like a really interesting game to me for a number of

Reasons it wasn’t like this big telling thing it’s not this big I’m not like oh man the nuggets are not gonna win the title like nothing much changed off of uh Tuesday Wednesday night’s results but I do think it’s um it’s a interesting game to break down and Bas off of tweets

Last night I was like I think this will be a good episode so I want to go ahead and jump on and do this one every time Matt Moore interacts with my tweets I know that I’ve made it very far in life because uh early on when I first met him

He would never say anything about my tweets but now I get quote tweeted and everything and now we’re building shows off that tweets so this is come come a long way sh you’re in the circle of content you’re in the Circ you go circle of content uh Joe brard says it’s swipe

And gripe that’s not a bad name for the show I gotta admit swiping gripe uh all right so the Nuggets get the loss on Wednesday night in a late game on ESPN 10497 Trail throughout no Jamal Murray let’s start right there uh Jamal Murray he so something interesting we noted in the

Media room was his designation shifted from an ankle to a knee uh left knee inflammation he had the ACL injury on the left knee that was two years ago uh not surprising it’s maybe swelled up he had a in his he did go through warm-up pre game so Jamal went through his

Normal pregame warmup like he did the whole pregame warmup uh did have a sleeve on the knee so had a wrap on it um but I wouldn’t say necessarily that this was like uh oh man Jamal might be out a while because he did go through the full now that doesn’t mean he’s

Gonna be back on Friday I think that’s very much like he’s gonna be questionable I’m pretty sure and he might play might not but no Jamal Murray in this game so that’s significant no use of nurkic on the other side and Jamal Murray is more important than use

Of nurkic but if you’re trying to defend Nico yic certainly use of nurkic is important uh and nerk done a pretty good job in winning the minutes versus yoke for whatever reason over the last couple of Seasons uh I’ll start here swipa what was your big takeaway from this game

What was like the big thing that you felt uh came out of this game there were a lot of playmaking opportunities for Joker the start the game the offense was roaming they it was 29 to 29 at the end of the first quarter it looked like it was going to be a high

Scoring game both teams were putting up a lot of three-point shots both teams were committed to putting up more three-point shots and it looked as if the Nuggets were going to be able to find advantages on the night and you know their defense wasn’t as locked in

As it needed to be but had they picked it up and had they not gotten down like they contined to do 15 points here and there it looked like it was going to be a game um that if they got it tight down the stretch they would be able to close

It out and Porter started the game off really well he had 14 points I believe in the first half and he was cooking I think joic you know really start in the second quarter you know when he kind of started putting his foot on the gas a

Little bit started to take over as well um I think the game started off well kcp was hitting like yeah he kind of looked like game what was that last year game two kcp when he had the 21 PCH or something like that I can’t remember

What it was yeah moving I mean just pump FES moving to the left just being really aggressive with a shot um they were trying to stall out a pick and roll he stepped to the left on the left wing hit the three-point shot and it just looked

Like okay the nuggets are going to find offense Porter was doing playing really well but Hey Kevin Durant man you know shout out to him I personally think Matt you know we can talk about this another time I think Kevin Durant has an argument for the best forward in the

League this year small forward um I think he can make First Team all NBA R tum if you know everything was on the books I just think he’s had an incredible season this year um but I think because of where he’s standing in the conference I don’t think he’s going

To get the love but he was really good yesterday his shot making you know he looked like KD of old uh a little bit yesterday he was doing those pump fakes up and overs turn around fadeaways his defense was good had five blocks had four in the first half yesterday but the

Nuggets just never quite got in Rhythm and it’s it’s an interesting day Matt when Colin closes the quarter over Reggie Jackson in the second quarter he just looks like a better player yesterday no get off of this you gotta get off of this man listen listen listen

I’m not I’m not off anything I don’t think Colin deserves no not deserve I don’t think Colin can should get a lot of playing time either but yesterday yesterday I’m saying yesterday in that game in particular I think K had eight one And1 in the first quarter and he was

Hitting his shots he was two a four from three which is more so what I was saying is is indictment of at that point in time he was able to make a couple more shots it aided their it aided their offense a little bit more Reggie just

Did not hit any shots in the first half it’s not about player for player Matt it’s not about player for player but yesterday did he not have a better first half everybody’s got the agendas I’m so tired it’s not an agenda how is that an agenda it’s a question so was five of

Seven from two-point range yes he was mhm okay in the first half he didn’t make a shot and he’s able to actually get downhill and create things and he’s actually able to put pressure at the rim and Collins airball also by the way in the second half was

That was a very big swe like the air yeah it was a deep three in the arena look colins’s in a tough spot this is a big game he’s having to play because Jamal is out Colin did fine but like we just no um no

No Matt in the first half this is I said first half I did not say game I said first half Colin had 81 and one on 204 zero turnovers and he was a plus4 Reggie was a minus 11 and 04 from the field that’s all I said I didn’t say in the

Game I had nothing to do about the game Reggie closed because he was better in the second half he was he not he was better in the second half yes but anytime but I I would just warn you because I saw you Tweeting about it about wanting wanting Colin to close and

Like I did not say call close I didn’t say he was playing with effort that’s all I said this was first half he he does I just no I don’t think either one of them should have closed yesterday personally so I know you want the no point guard lineup so let’s I

Want to go to kind talk about the the the shots right so Denver goes let’s talk about the offense 10 to 40 and postgame I always love these kind of games because it’s interesting to get player perspectives and um Malone like was not livid after this one

He was not mad he was basically like look I don’t you know we there’s things we could have done better especially on the offense because I knew he was gonna be mad about the offensive rebounds so I asked him about off I was like offensive rebounds or three-point defense which

One bugged you more and he was like both and he was like but honestly a lot of it was we just didn’t hit shots and then they’re they’re getting all the they’re getting better opportunities in transition because we’re missing so much and he’s like some of this just is make

Or Miss and the players kind of asserted that like they like the looks that they got on the 10 of four um now what’s interesting there is and this is a question that goes back in most famous example is the 2018 Western Conference Finals where the Rockets missed 22 straight threes if you’re

Missing that many threes should you start attacking the basket more should you not take the I asked mpj and Joker that that question of like would you like to have seen more cuts um mpj I always love this because mpj is is like he is not a mi a mission statement guy

He thinks about things a a little bit more like well it’s complicated and so he was like yeah no look if we’re he’s like look I like the looks we got we like the looks that we got we just miss really good looks and he was like but if

We’re not hitting yeah like we should probably be cutting more because Malone said that too Malone’s like now I would have liked to have seen more movement on the weak side we weren’t moving when Joker was getting doubled because they were leaving like they were letting

Leaving US Open so Joker kicks out and then we were missing threes andj was like you still need to be putting pressure on them especially if you’re not hitting we got to adapt to that not like adamantly just like it’s complicated but probably a little bit more Joker was really interesting on it

Because I asked Joker that and he was like so the problem is is that they’re shrinking the floor yeah he’s like so you know it’s easy to say well you should cut more they’re they want you to do that because that’s what they’re game planning against you have to hit those

Shots to force them out and if you’re not it’s going to be really hard for you to find those opportunities underneath because that’s what they’re playing against like it was a really good answer from Joker so that makes it complicated so the answer of just like why don’t

They take more twos why aren’t they attacking the rim you don’t want this lineup without Jamal B like just ducking your head down and trying to burrow your head to the rim like that’s not what you want to do even without nerk there KD was a really great rim protector last

Night Dre EU Banks gave great effort the the sun’s defensive rotations also were fantastic they were anticipating this too so we gotta go a break in a second but when Joker what the same time that they sent the double they started rotating that’s hard to do and that

Shows a level of game planning for this game in particular that indicates the level how seriously the Suns took this this game um on the other side we’ll get more into the three-point stuff I’ll talk about some of my my concerns with the Suns and the three-point volume and

And an ongoing question of this and whether the math problem really is going to be an issue for Denver or not going forward into the postseason we’ll do that when we return here on locked on nuggets are you the kind of driver that likes to push things a little further

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Loock onfire TV we’ll be right back on locked on nuggets back here un locked on n thanks for joining us Megan this party today appreciate you guys being with us Matt Moore alongside swiper um all right let’s start here with Grace Grace says I don’t buy it about the three-point stuff

Okay here’s the deal last season the Denver Nuggets were one of the absolute best teams in the association in three-point percentage they were extremely hot they they shot well well over expectation is what I’m regarding sir uh so they shot well over what the expected percentage was and fourth is

Very high they are 11th this season which is not bad 11th is good that’s a good percentage they have good shoters they have lots of right they have 12th now um that’s one one game knocks them down a spot that’s not surprising when you go 10 to 40 uh look no Jamal last

Night that certainly impacts this my key here is that if you’re building if you are building a way to beat this team that has the most championship Equity that is the Western Conference favorite and who I believe will win the NBA championship this season if you are

Building a model for how to beat them it has to start with this premise the nuggets are going to take a lot of high efficiency twos and you have to keep Pace with three-pointers this nuggets defense did a much better job in the second half of tamping those down and

That tells you that okay in a series when they are healthy locked in and serious it is very likely that they can maybe contain this but if they don’t this is the problem you run into the Suns average 12 three point makes per game they hit 16 last night and had most

Of those in the first half if the nug Nuggets play good defense sure you can contain that but if you are getting outshot from three-point range that is part of the formula for a nugget loss it is the easiest path to compensate for how high efficient their offense is is

The ability to compensate for that by hitting three-pointers that’s why matters yeah I look I said going into the season the suns were the best bet to beat the Nuggets coming out of the West just because I think the shot making variant it’s what you need you got to

Outscore them you can’t out defend them I don’t think defense worked for I think Timber rules have a real chance because of that um Now Matt just to say this you know because just context context per dunen threes in terms of three-point defenses they’re allowing the second least amount of three-pointers on the

Season they’re only allowing 35.8 in terms of percentage points like how much you’re allowing per game they’re second in the NBA 35.8 three point they are worse than they were last year they shot 37.9% from three last year they’re shooting 37.0 this year which obviously because

Of the way the NBA has changed that was fourth last year it’s 11th this year so they’re in a similar category just not shooting as well as the league that’s picked up in this overall volume and last year they were about 21st in attempts as opposed to this year their

30th in attempt last year they attempted 36.1 threes per game this year they’re shooting 34.9 threes per game so they’re down in percentage about a you know almost a full percent and then on top of that they’re also down about uh in attempt in a half almost roughly per

Game so I do think they’ve gotten worse uh relative to last season I think for me is Jamal Murray’s also missed 20 games this year yeah um and I think in the games that he’s missed because you even had a tweet about like the 500 teams they played um you the Pelicans

And I think Mavericks and you mentioned the Rockets or whatever else and the Suns I think some of this is Jamal has missed a little bit more time versus some of these mid to good teams over the course of the Season than last year which I think is what matters for

Obviously their overall construction Jamal shooting 42% from three Porter shooting 40 kcp shooting about 40 and then Yin just obious sitting at about 34 and a half 35 right now but outside of that Reggie’s not a good three-point shooter Christian’s not a good three-point well 37% he’s shooting

Better this year he’s Sho better this year yeah Payton’s not a good three-point shooter Z can’t shoot threes at all anymore so they don’t have like a Litany of shooter they have four starters who are all good to Great Shooters and they have Christian who’s a 37% three-point shooter but you don’t

Trust that so really they don’t have like a lot of high volume Shooters which is why like you know player like Royce O’Neil or Grayson Allen they help the Sun so much because they’re giving you additional spacing plus the defensive versatility that they’re offering either

As a POA Defender as a wing defender or help Defender whatever else it might be so I do think that that matters uh you know yesterday the Nugget shot 58% from two when they did take two-pointers they just didn’t take a lot of them they shot

Huh what’ you say I said yeah like they shot really well y they shot 20 uh 28 I think it was 48 tws yesterday as opposed to 43s they never that’s a Boston Celtics shot shot profile they never do that they do not shoot 47 46% of their their profile from

Three-pointer they don’t do that so I do think that they will be able to scheme the twos in the playoffs versus this team in particular and the Suns but I think that’s it right like you want them taking their least most valuable shot which for them it’s their three-pointer

Because they’re not a volume three-point shooting team but yesterday too you know they just didn’t they didn’t look as crisp at different points in time in this game and know people ask me all the time like you know are the Nuggets scared of the Suns I don’t think they’re

Scared of him I think they respect him but I I will say like this too Matt like I just think they I just think yesterday the way the game even started you could just tell like joic was also not in this mode of like all right let me go ahead

And just you know absolutely demolish Drew Eubanks and you know they put TJ Warren in the game um their defense was really loose pton Watson had a play yesterday that I noted where they were in transition he and he was he Grayson was on his side and then there was

Another player in him that were trying to pick up the ball and Payton left Grayson Allen to go help on the ball because they didn’t want to like give up the match Advantage I think for book for uh for I can’t know it was Booker on

This side I think it was KD and he just left him wide open just for a wide and Booker hadn’t made anything the entire day so some of this is like I think Kevin Durant had a really good game yesterday for the most part you know he

Ended up 12 to 20 from the field uh but they just weren’t if then and we’ve talked about this before if the nuggets are not locked in defensively they’re not the same team right it’s just it’s just that they have to give Max effort and yesterday really I don’t think at

Any point in the game you can say they truly locked in on that end except for maybe two or three possessions at a time but they just did not have the Rhythm to go with the offensive flow and they’re not having Jamal Murray again and I

Think that’s a big storyline for me this year Jamal Murray has missed 19 games but he’s also less early in three games this year yeah that’s 30% of the Season yeah so I also looked this up the nuggets are six and eight this season when any of the starters are missing

Versus teams over 500 MH so times I I need to like very much stress this to to to everybody I am again the nuggets are are the most likely team to win the NBA championship your team is extremely good you have a great team if you are missing

Anybody your chances go down more than other teams in your tears so the Minnesota Timberwolves yes if ant is out they’re screw yeah but if Jaden McDaniels is out I think the Wolves can find ways to win if Kyle Anderson’s out they can find ways to win if Mike

Conley’s out I think they can find ways to win if um if the Boston Celtics in particular right Boston can miss almost anybody and still win that’s how good they are and that’s how deep they are Denver is built upon the Synergy of the top five guys

Was extremely notable they came in with a game plan that is contrary to how they play and if they stick to that game plan and they execute well enough to get that volume of Threes up and yes Denver’s defense matters here but that’s going to be the battle because that it doesn’t

Mean that the suns are better it shortens the Gap that’s all we’re talking about here on the other side we’ll wrap up this conversation we’ll also get into a little bit of discussion on Friday’s Monster game versus the Minnesota Timberwolves we’ll do that and more when we return on locked on

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Because this I think is an interesting thing so did you see that yeah so Malone’s for guard and Watson lineup got destroyed uh they lost by seven points that’s the game you’re not wrong um they asked Harrison asked about Payton Watson and wanted to see him like oh did you

Like because I asked in pregame I was like are you gonna experiment in any in this game with just like is this an opportunity to try things for a playoff series and mil’s like no like we just want to win the game um and then he was asked about the

Reasoning for that afterwards and like Malone was pretty obvious about this which is why I thought the criticism for Malone was hilarious where it was like what are you doing he’s an idiot again um it was basically this can’t play AG at five he’s too banged up got to be

Able to keep his minutes down and got to be able to not have him be playing five so they put Payton in to get those minutes through because they didn’t want to deploy AG at five last night because the physical told that it takes on AG

They don’t have anybody else that can do it so that’s how this goes you play uh DeAndre Jordan with how many guys that they play uh staggered with Beal Booker and Durant and he’s they’re going to cook in that mid-range and that’s the shots that they want to get to so there

Wasn’t a good option last night that’s why that lineup played that’s why it got destroyed and it does tell you like the Nuggets did not play this game as we’re going to design everything to win this game they played it as in like we want

To win this game we’re at home we want to win this game but we’re protecting our health for the postseason because a lot of our guys are banged up yeah that was uh I knew Matt as soon as I saw that lineup oh no I know exactly what’s

Happening here this is this is not locked Allin game yeah uh let’s do everything we can to secure the victory just for the audience that was not watching the game Reggie Jackson Justin holiday Julian stur Christian Brown and Payton Watson and as you would expect there was nothing that was created over

The course of that lineup and then I think they actually had a good back-to-back possession with Christian Brown and uh pton Watson got blocked but no offensive progress whatsoever so you know again I don’t even think there is anything to be upset about people are like we’re making a big deal about it

But I think this is just time of the year where they’re trying some things March is this is the same team from last March for me honestly they’re just finding a way to kind of load Advantage as they win games a little bit and who’s playing who’s not playing depending on

The teams that they’re playing against and all that so you know it’s just uh yesterday did not feel like an indictment on the process at all it was just more so this is kind of where everybody’s at and then DJ do you think DJ could have got some minutes yesterday

So I think this is an interesting question um I think part of that gets into again I think if you play DJ and you’re playing drop coverage versus this team that’s not the team to played against the suns are also playing at faster Pace not the team they played

Against and the final thing here is like look you are 10 games from nine games now from the playoffs DJ’s not in the playoff rotation you don’t you want to try and stay away from that you want to try and avoid that and I think it’s so like Grace is is like pretty

Peeved about it she’s like is playing A5 that much of a physical toll he’s playing against b b yeah cuz he’s still setting screen that’s the problem is like it’s what you do at five it’s not about the matchup it’s about what you have to do at five and that’s the that’s

The and like this is true for so many guys around the league and I think it’s an underrated element because we all act like well you could just play it you could just do it just go out there and do it because you’re doing the same stuff anyway it’s all basketball no uh

Lebron had a really good point about this about with J.J reic about guarding point guards if you’ve never got point guards before and all of a sudden you’re getting cracked by screens and how different that is for you when you’ve been guard and two guards it’s very

Different and it’s one of the reasons why guys like ad really like ad sucks at five he hates it because it beats the snot out of him and the toll that AG takes is significant and they need to try and protect him like AG probably needs needs to rest more down the

Stretch and they have some opportunities this is like Spurs Memphis few games in there and this is what I’m I’m kind of getting at is like Denver needs to increase the chances that they maybe not get the one in order to get guys healthy it’s not a binary you might be able to

Win both I do think that they may have I think that the idea of like well we can kind of H like half it right like we’re GNA Miss some guys here and some guys there and then we can still win and guys get rest I really think it just

Needs to be like number one a get guys healthy whatever needs to be done to do have that happen is what they need to do well if you look at their schedule they’re going to have the Wolves the Cavs I think they probably you know go for definitely the Wolves game that

Cav’s game you know we’ll see but then they have the Clippers the timber wolves again but outside of that Matt it’s the Spurs Hawks Jazz Spurs Grizzlies oh you I feel like there’s going to be a little bit of a rathon um happening over course of those game because they just don’t

Need to put all the guys out there for those victories now obviously that depends on on some de seating and how hard they’re going for I well I will say this just because they got the Blazers and the Grizzlies win doesn’t mean that they’re going to get all those wins if

They rest no I agree it lowers the win probability right right um and that’s totally okay but I also I I’ll just stress this look if you’re in the two seed because I was looking at this this morning if you’re in the two seed you’re not playing the Lakers first round and

The nuggets have won a 700,000 games in a row versus the Lakers they don’t need to be scared of anybody they’re the best team in the Western Conference but two seed’s a fine spot you’re probably you might fly Phoenix right but and you might like it’s gonna be tough no matter

What you it’s like do you want Devin Booker Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal or do you want Luca donic and Kyrie Irving or do you want the Kings who always get up for that matchup or do you around Denver because of the 152 run since Allstar that I think is not necessarily

Indicative of how good Denver is that’s not to say that Denver is not the best they are you can be the best and not have like this monster lead on everybody else it’s close and Denver better like this is part of it is Denver I’ve been saying this all year Denver’s margin for

Error is smaller this year it just is and that to me I think is really important to keep in mind I’m trying to think cu I’ve heard you say that a couple of times I’m trying to think last year how much margin for error they actually had you think it’s the just

That Bruce Brown proponent to it that makes the margin for ER smaller just because they don’t have that veteran Off the Bench that six starter yeah um I think the stability that Bruce brought I think the Bruce like the Bruce versus Reggie stuff I think is significant um I

Think it’s here’s what’s interesting the starters are slightly better they have a 13.7 versus a 13.5 last year they’re slightly better tiny tiny tiny bit little bit better uh net rating um there are times this year where from a non-analytic standpoint I personally I see them playing better

Than last year at times and worse than last year at times so I think the starters are maybe a little less consistent than they were last year and that to me I think is like that’s an anecdotal shot I think a little bit well their defense is better yes they’re more

Locked in yes but the other end it’s like it’s just the maybe the consistency of making some of those housers that they and like look part of this too is you mentioned that you were talking breaking down the three-point shooting right of like they have four good

Shooters in the starting unit um and that part of this is like Joker levels up so much in the in the playoffs in terms of he’s like last year he I forget was he 40% from three 46 46 God uh so yeah right and if he does that again and

This is this is a lot of it is that’s the difference yeah one of this is one of the things about how to think about the margin for error is like what happened last year well like Joker shot 46% from three and Jamal goes into Super

Cyan on a god mode okay the question is what if those things don’t happen right like they they I’m not saying they won’t that’s the difference I’m not saying they won’t but if they don’t how can you win he shot so Joker shot 46% from three

He shot 52% I think from mid and then he shot really well at The Rim but he shot 79% at the line Jamal shot 50% from mid he shot 39% from three 93% from the free throw line and again to your point that’s small but Jamal shooting 85% from

The free throw line this year and if you get a 8% a 8% uptick in the playoffs on similar volume and then you’re also getting a carryover with the shooting and yok is just going to have to shoot better in the playoffs and he you know he’s had some inconsistencies this year

With the jumper but I think he he might struggle still in the first round a little bit and second round and on I think he’ll shoot better because it’s just a rhythm thing with him and he’s talked about this you know Joker why sometimes you don’t shoot as well you

Said just thinking like sometimes you just have to shoot and I think Joker that’s going to be the difference Porter for me is the one that was really consistent to to playoff people get on him for that finals but up until the finals he was lights out as a shooter

And I think kcp has to be there as well but that’s where it comes down to if Joker is hitting those pop shots that he gets out of the pick and roll or those movement threes he gets that for me is like the other part of it yesterday he

Was one of five and three Matt if he’s three of five on those open attempts then you know even the game Flow is different and that’s what it also felt like yeah so again I’m not saying like Phoenix should be favored in a series versus Denver I’m not saying Phoenix

Will upset Denver in a series but I do think that there were things to learn from this game in terms of at the very least things for Denver to be wary of to be like we really got to make sure we can we cannot let them get up that many

Threes that’s let me let me ask you this question before we end so we’re pton Christian and Mr they’re young obviously yeah because of this year depending what happen in this playoff do you think that they’re going to be better suited what before they get any other addition just

Those two Alone by next year would be better suited to handle the responsibility of a regular season and having to raise the floor as a bench players a little bit no I don’t because I think see any marginal leaps there I think players are inconsistent yeah so like they’ll be

Better in some spots but they’ll be still inconsistent and that’s the problem that’s a challenge and that’s just inherent to how the nuggets have decided to build the team uh we’ll talk about more on that tomorrow because it’s a great point tomorrow we’ll also get into the Western Conference playoff

Seating implications we’ll take a look at the West we’ll also talk about the big game are we doing a show again tomorrow together yeah I’m with you again again tomorrow wow look at this y’all this wow this look at us blessed can’t can’t get enough of of swiping

Right so we’ll do that tomorrow thanks for joining us make sure to hit the Subscribe button and like on YouTube we’ll see you guys again tomorrow here on lock on nuggets

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