Does Luka Doncic Actually Have an MVP Case? | OM3 THINGS

Does Luka Doncic Actually Have an MVP Case? | OM3 THINGS

Welcome to the old man of the three things with JJ reick and the dunker spot Nik Duncan and Steve Jones fellas let’s get right into it we’ve got three things to discuss today uh let’s start with Luca donic who had another spectacular game just Unstoppable yesterday against the Houston

Rockets I would like to examine with you guys his MVP case and know this is not just for Jason Gallagher and his fandom this is for all of basketball where do you have Luca donic right now we’ve got 14 13 days to go uh in the NBA season winding down here I

Just want to have a conversation about where he’s at right now in the MVP race I I will get things started like Luca’s MVP case has been one of the more fun and confusing is probably too strong of a word one of the more confusing ones

That I’ve had this year just because of the things that I prioritize in MVP want the box score stuff you want the onoff stuff you want the advanced stuff you want the efficiency and Luca like in a vacuum just checks all four of those boxes but in comparison to like what

Yoka just done what Shay has done even what Giannis has done at least heading into B uh you could argue Luca anywhere from third or fourth and so I’ve been kind of back and forth with Luka all year long I think following what he’s done this past month and now the

Mavericks are only a couple of games out of a home court seed right now so depending on how they close out the year they could just be the four seed which will shift some stuff like I could I could get to Luca as high as I mean you

Can make the argument for one I think I’ll probably have him third right now but very much Clos again on second which to that point like I think I have like last time we talked about MVP I had um Shay over joic like I said I had him

By a couple of strands of pair I think was the exact wording I used I think I have yoka jaday right now and so like I think he’s on Shay’s heels for me with what he’s been able to do okay all right uh Luca and Shay is going to be a

Fun topic of discussion down the stretch I feel like with joic looming I think Lucas MVP cases Firm Dallas running uh in this winning streak has been great but in the calendar year 2024 to consistently put up these amount of 30p Point triple doubles on a nightly basis

No matter what a defense is throwing at you is Beyond impressive to lead the league in scoring and be second and assists very hard to do we haven’t seen someone do that since what tiny archal when he did both so I think for me it’s

Less does Luca have an MVP case and more how strong is his MVP case and where does the hair splitting come for people can he topple a yic who has winning behind him and everything he’s done scoring and offense wise is it just people don’t want to OKC fans don’t want

To hear about Luca Dallas fans don’t want to hear about [ __ ] that’s kind of where my mind wraps around it because the Hair S splitting is where it’s going to get interesting and you just end up with a split of Luca versus Shay that ends up tilting the

Table to a degree oh that’s interesting that’s interesting you want to get granular with the actual voting here I like that no I I think that’s fair I there’s a there’s a a a group of Voters that likely will have very strong feelings about joic as the MVP

There’s a group of Voters that maybe split between Luca and Shay and how those votes go so I I I I understand what you’re saying here I I I think what’s interesting you know there there’s probably four guys that have you know we we talked about the separation

Thing I think it’s the same four guys that we talked about last time you know it’s we’ll throw Giannis in there as well it’s those four guys uh Jaylen Brunson by the way let’s give him some MVP love can we just give Jaylen Brunson some MVP love like what he’s done for these

Knicks H we’ll get more on this in a second uh in one of our other topics but the fact that they’ve had the injuries they’ve had uh we talked uh last week with legler about how some of their those their players have been a little overextended in their roles and

Yet they’ve been right in the mix for that third spot in the East and and it’s because of Jaylen Brunson and you know Josh Hart Maes McBride Isaiah hartstein div chenzo I get it we all need uh we all need our our Batman’s and alfreds um here’s what’s interesting about uh this

Is the point I want to make about the Luca MVP case because you hear it a lot you hear well he’s had to do more with less because of all the injuries and and you know now there’s there there were trades a couple months ago I think if you compare to joic right

Denver’s starting lineup their fiveman starting lineup is the most used lineup in the entire NBA they have played 895 minutes together Dallas’s most used lineup this year just crossed the 100 minute threshold for a good stretch of this season all the way into last month the

Grizzlies the Mavs and the heat did not have a fiveman lineup that had played over a 100 minutes together Dallas’s fiveman lineup they have one lineup that has played 122 minutes it’s the only lineup that has played over 100 minutes together 12 games and both and that

Lineup has both PJ Washington and Daniel gaffer the two additions through the trade the other two guys are obviously Kyrie Irving and Derrick Jones Jr the question is cuz I think it’s it you could make the argument well that that certainly helps Don’s case that he’s he’s had all

These different lineups he’s had these injuries and yet he’s gone out and performed and he’s kept kept Dallas in the hunt and I agree with that it doesn’t mean that we have to penalize other players because they have had health and because they have had continuity it doesn’t mean that it also

Is part of an NBA season it’s part of an NBA season that there are going to be injuries there are going to be some teams that don’t have continuity we see that every year so does it help him that much in this argument I don’t know it certainly

Is not a negative for him but I don’t know how much it helps because again to me this is going into the narrative talk and I don’t like to make votes based on narrative I like to ask the simple question who is the most valuable player in the NBA this

Season and to answer that you have to look at the NBA not who you stand for it’s the NBA what is the story of the regular season what is the story of the regular season and and that’s the question I have to ask when I make votes

And it’s going to be hard it’s going to be hard between joic Shay Luca Giannis it’s gonna be hard for sure but I just don’t I I just don’t like this like he’s had to do more with less and that’s why he’s the MVP ah Luca if he had a full

Lineup the full season is going to do the same exact thing if you want to vote for Luca as the MVP do it because he’s [ __ ] awesome that’s what I think sorry I know it’s m day yes we got yes we one we got a rant two this sounds

Like the very uh very loud uh just make your case for your person yes I I would like to continue to permeate through the culture so yes can I can I annoy JJ very quickly yes I want you to annoy I you annoy me because I think to the narrative Point

Like as I was just looking up stuff this morning to have for the Luca segment like I thought back to you know again Mavericks have gotten up to fifth at this point but they have kind of been in that five to late eight n range for most

Of the year because of the injuries and things like that and so my mind immediately went to okay how does the Luca season compar to joic a couple of years ago and the Russ MVP year as they won with lower seeds and so like just looking at I mean

The bot score production I think kind of kind of speaks for itself when it comes to what Luca is doing obviously Russ had a triple double year yach I think what 27 eight well 27 14 and8 or somewhere around that range Lucas again we talked about March he’s coming off of averaging

A 32 point triple double this month but going to the season wide stuff uh the Mavericks are 42 and 23 in the games that Luca has played so they’ve won roughly 65% of games that Lucas played in this year yic had a 62.2 win rate in the 2122 season Russell’s around 57% you

Look at the onoff differential like that’s where yage and Russ are ahead because their B their teams just died when they were off the floor and that hasn’t been the case to Luca you know to agree with Luca if you just look at just the pure on court numbers a plus 3.9

With Russ on the floor a plus 5.1 with Luka on the floor plus nine with yage on the floor so like yage would still win out but it’s a lot closer and so if you are going to build the narrative case around Luca and having to carry more

Like it is comparable to those two MVP cases and then you look at just the bot score numbers that Luca has this year as a guy that’s had sha ahead like Luca’s had the bot score stuff all year long like it’s hard to sneeze at 349 and

10 you can’t sneeze at it I’ve tried you can’t like you can’t do this he it you can’t sneeze it at Giannis 3010 and five over 60% from the field no player’s ever done that can’t sneeze at that can’t sneeze at the box score stuff that’s but

Nik that’s what I want to say to in rebuttal to you and again I’m not making a case for anyone right now I’m just having a discussion it’s important to note and this is it’s important to note there is a narrative in MVP and and I recognize that so in 167 when Russ

Wins right number one he has a historic season number two the team outperforms expectations and number three there’s no way in [ __ ] they’re giving it to Steph Curry or Kevin Durant despite how good that team was right so it does factor in so I think in that case yeah narrative

Factors in certainly jokic’s year where they they outperformed expectations when Murray and Porter were hurt like that’s another example I think I think this is where Lucas’s case is building because there were I think expectations going in going back to last year coming off a Western Conference

Finals and then they make the trade they don’t make the playoffs you come into this year they they’ve got the the the free agent acquisitions they draft drik Lively and for a player of Lucas’s caliber there’s always going to be expectations for his team right this is where his

Case is building because they’ve [ __ ] won games and they’re as you said they’re up to fifth place I think I I think the strongest case I can make well and last point so my my my the reason I I want to I want to bring that up is

Because and I I I had this last year as well you can talk about all this narrative stuff and you can stand for your player but all these guys are having historic Seasons like so so if you want to talk box score stuff well what flavor do you

Want right do you want chocolate do you want vanilla do you want Strawberry maybe you’re a pistachio gu I don’t know they’re all historic box score numbers that’s the thing and it was the same thing last year Giannis had a 310 and five season last year you only shot

Over 55% not 60% last year joic had a historic season Joel had an historic season right so which flavor do you want so that that the box score stuff to me is like yeah they’re all [ __ ] awesome at that that’s not that can’t be the that can’t be the reason it just can’t

Be expectations expectations uh anything else to add to that fellas uh I just say very quickly she was run want to run off some stuff I was looking at a bunch of tracking stuff earlier this morning yeah uh Luc above one points per possession on drives dribble handoffs isos pick and roll possessions

And post-ups and among like the qualifiers that get to get a decent volume size the only players to do that at you know over a point per possession it was Luca and Lebron in all of those groups it’s just fun to see LeBron on the list this late into his career but

Luk has been incredible well actually Le bronze on this list too the one I wanted to share so you guys follow Andy Bailey uh great follow on NBA Twitter uh Andy has a uh thing that he posts periodically hni it’s uh every NBA player with 500 plus minutes in 2324

Sorted by their the average of their ranks in the eight catchalls this is uh box plus minus EPM estimated plus minus LeBron all all of the sort of catchall singular Advanced stats for each player so as of uh 330 as I found it on 330 which was 2

Days ago but whatever just this is not to make an argument I’m just looking at this and it’s Nicole yic is is number one in terms of the average Luca’s tied with Shay number two Giannis is fourth Jason Tatum Kawhi Leonard LeBron are fifth Anthony Davis is e8th Jaylen

Brunson is ninth Tyrese halberton is 10th and it’s interesting because it’s like well I mean at any point in time throughout and by the way Joel ID is 11th but at any point in time throughout the season when you want to say hey let’s talk about this guy for MVP well

It’s [ __ ] every one of those guys right maybe we didn’t give the Lakers love you LeBron and Anthony Davis I don’t think fairly have not been in the MVP discussion this this year every every all those guys at different points in time including today for some of them

Have been part of the MVP so the haters of the advanced stats again it just backs up what we’re watching more times than not it just reinforces the ey test don’t hate the advanced stats second topic here we go uh this is going to be fun I want

Wondering if we get agreement and disagreement on this one um how would you guard the Denver Nuggets starting five how would you guard the Denver Nuggets Steve I want to start with you this prompted because just in watching Denver and how they’ve gone on this run post All-Star break and going

On some of the uh mind the game topics I was thinking about the discomfort that Denver puts on teams with their different actions and how you are putting tough positions no matter what you want to try and it Jed my brain watching Denver play Cleveland and there

Is just joic in the split action with cavius cwell Pope uh Jared Allen engages once kcp cuts off yic catches on the short roll Cleveland recovers and it’s like hey good job defensively but the result is Nicole yic has the ball with two feet in the paint in the middle of

The floor did you actually recover and that got my brain to thinking well how would you how do you choose and what would you choose to try and take away uh to to try and condense it do you have the Personnel to guard Jamal Murray Aaron Gordon and Nicole yic can you

Switch comfortably do you have the ability to guard after you switch can you time your doubles well all of this while knowing that Nicole yic knows everything you’re trying to do and you have to try and sustain that over a 48 minute game or over a playoff series and

So I wanted to pick your guys’ brain to see what would you try and choose what would you live with what would be the priority because in my mind every time I thought of something like hey let’s go the Boston route we have wings we can

Put on yic we can switch they do such a good job of moving Aaron Gordon around it makes it tough so which one which one is more valuable having strength against Aaron Gordon having sizing against Jamal Murray having switchability against yic or just committing to one

Scheme I mean go ahead I I just want to it’s a great way to frame the question what are we willing to live with that is a great way to frame the question you didn’t answer my question but go ahead to guys I feel like dear I feel like he

Didn’t answer my question he asked a question back I mean it was a beautiful monologue I’m just saying you didn’t answer the question how would you guard the Denver Nuggets hold on S hold on the guys let me answer the question for me I it’s about I would you

Would have to to double on the catch and you have to live with rotations I think that to me is what I settled in on okay all right double yogic on the catch rotate behind it you just have to live with that okay um like I think for

Me it is I guess borrowing from like what we saw from the Wolves what we’ve seen from the Wolves what we saw from the Sixers last year what we’ve seen from the Lakers and spurts like I think it is very much crossmatch switch send help where you can and try to funnel

Possessions to off of Steve’s point if you are going to double I’m doubling to make sure these shots are funneled or these decisions are being funneled to mpj or kcp if I can help it obviously the Nuggets do a great job of moving guys around they cut all over the place

So you can’t scheme that up 100% of the time but like that would be my game plan going in if I could put ly on Jamal Murray like just using Minnesota as a template if I can get a jayen McDaniels um on Jamal Murray if I can

Get cat on joic and I can let Rudy goar Ro around with Aaron Gordon so he can some of uh test some of the lobs if Joker tries to dump it down to him and stuff like that that’s going to be my best bet and if we feel the need to send

Help from there let’s see can kpj knock down uh kpj can kcp knock down shots great shooter but can you knock down enough are you willing to take eight nine 10 threes mpj we know you’re willing to take these shots if we’re able to run

You off the line what are you doing as a driver are these just going to be pull up mid-range jumpers are you going to get all the way to the rim are you going to make the next pass like I’m trying to dare mpj to beat us with good

Decisionmaking if I can help you yeah and it’s interesting because he’s he’s played unbelievable since the All-Star break so when teams have done that more often than not he’s burned them he’s been super efficient shot the [ __ ] out of the ball um as well as he’s played since coming back from his injury

This post All-Star break stretch you know I think the there’s a there’s a there was a thought I don’t think this is like now a real thought there was a thought that well you could just make joic a score right and the problem with that is

That he is one of the most efficient scorers in the NBA so that’s fine you can make him a score and say oh we’re not going to let leic get his nine 10 assists okay but he’s still points per possession wise going to give you good offense so it’s I don’t love that

Solution um and the other the other problem is at any point in time the first thing Steve brought up was joic at the high post joic at in in at the elbow jic at the top of the key they’re just good in their off ball movement

So it’s some variation of delay or five out is what it is and there’ll be more on this on Wednesday uh on mine the game by the way um they they get into they’re you know they’re they’re Twan splits on either side sometimes Gordon’s down in

The dunker to start so it’s one side of Twan splits and they’re just very intuitive in their reads and they always end up getting they always end up creating an advantage I think is the best way to describe it they’re they create an advantage so I don’t think making him a

Scorer and saying we’re not going to double yic is is the answer and by the way I don’t think there’s a good answer to this um but I’ll tell you what what Steve said is where I’d live you have I think you have to be comfortable being in rotation against

This team I also think you have to sell out to Eric Aaron Gordon so the crossmatching as you brought up Nikas if you have the personnel and you can put to me if you can put on Murray and size on joic in some ways when I was thinking

About it this morning in some ways and again I’m not making like oh in some ways it reminds me of like Dirk versus the Golden State Warriors in ‘ 07 is like we’re gonna put big wings on Murray we’re GNA put big and again you

Got to have the Personnel to do this you got to put big wings on Murray you got to put a big Wing like a Jaylen Brown on nicolea yic and then you’re switching all that two-man action and then once it gets down to joic you are selling out in

Rotation you have to be comfortable in that world I like putting size on Aaron Gordon they’re just too good if you don’t they’re too good he’s going to punish smaller players joic is going to find him he’s going to draw foul he’s going they’re going to get to the free

Throw line where does Denver want to score they want to score in the paint and the mid-range so look they’re a good shooting team I’m not saying they’re not a good shooting team they’re not a high volume shooting team they’re 28th in the league and made three-pointers they’re

30th in the league in three-point attempts you at some point you have to say what are we willing to live with three-pointers we’re willing and and you [ __ ] hey hope hopefully it’s one of those nights because the the other side of it is you play traditional defense against

This team oh we’re going to be in drop and we’re going to we’re going to chase Murray over the top and uh we’re going to double on the dribble and we’re gonna we’re going to match up you know like size guess what it doesn’t work it

Doesn’t work and I’m not saying my plan would work I’m not saying that at all I’m just saying the idea of being comfortable in rotation and I think I think it was Steve that said Michael Porter Jr kcp at the end of a clock out of rotation being the decision

Makers that’s probably your best bet yeah the shot profile point was the one I was about to hop on until you you know got it in this is why you are the sorry I stole it oh no nuggets only have six games taking 40 or more threes in a game they’re two and

Four of those games like that’s not the world that they want to live in which again small samples so you don’t want to take too much from it but in general like they they want to win in the paint if they can’t do that then you have a

Better chance the real answer to this question is pre I agree with that if you ask anybody it’s like whoa how do you do how do you stop this and it’s like there’s no good answer it’s the same thing with you know we talked about it in episode two of

Mind the game it’s like Luca donic how do you how do you guard L Luca donic there’s no good answer I think Jason on the video post called it a riddle right the Riddle That is guarding Luca donic and that’s the truth that’s what great players are they’re a riddle and you

Have to be willing to live with something cuz if you just go ah we’re just gonna play our base defense ah it’s not going to work that’s not going to work all right let’s get to our last topic real quick what team needs to get to X seed to avoid y

Team we could say a seed or be I don’t care but you get the point of it which which team pick a team that you would like to see avoid or get to a certain seed in order to avoid a certain playoff matchup cuz we got two weeks left here and it’s winding

Down the Cleveland Cavaliers need to get to the three seed to avoid the New York Knicks in my opinion uh it would be nice to get revenge on them and show the growth but the Knicks have not cooperated with that matchup no matter who’s in the lineup no matter what

They’ve done I think three games Cleveland scored 9 95 and 98 so I’m going to Avo the Cleveland Cavaliers to do the work to get to three and avoid the New York Knicks okay I like that think for me I get I think I probably have the boring

One of the panel but I for their sake I want Sacramento to get the six if you don’t have Kevin hert you don’t have Malik monk I would worry about the Phoenix matchup and just the offensive Firepower that they have I’m not the highest person on Phoenix right now but

In the one game off and you have those three dudes I would want to see that so I I would want Sacramento to avoid the play in because I think with the injuries I don’t know if they make it out okay by the way who who on their bingo card had two

Weeks left to go in the regular season and the Orlando Magic being one game back in the last column of the three seed in the East how about that shout out to Jamal Mosley probably Nas honestly I feel like I was a year early on Orlando but oh man stuff all right uh

My my one is also the Knicks uh has involves the Knicks I the Knicks they need to get to the three seed more favorable match up potentially depending how that six seed plays out in the first round uh that for by the way that New York Orlando potentially as a

45 oh my God that’s going to be ridiculous if that happens that’s going to be ridiculous um grimy that’s going to be grimy real real hoop but yeah but them getting them getting the three seed uh gives their guys more time to get healthy obviously uh

If they can win that first round series now there’s a matchup with probably Milwaukee and potentially get to the Conference finals against probably the Boston Celtics and I I’ve said this back in January I’m like there’s so many scenarios that could play out here in the Eastern Conference but there’s a

World where the Knicks get to the Conference Finals the reason and again I’m I’m throwing some narrative [ __ ] out here guys the reason I want to see this happen uh is because I think it’s actually good I think it’s actually good for the game and I think it’s good for the league

If the Knicks are in the Conference Finals and not for [ __ ] ratings and all that [ __ ] this has just been a shitty franchise and yeah there’s some bias here because I like Jaylen Brunson as a human being but what he’s done for this franchise if he was able to get them

Past the second round and into the Conference Finals regardless of what happens in the Conference Finals like he’s a [ __ ] hero he’s already a hero in New York City he’s he’s a he’s a legend in the Knicks franchise if that happens to to take them where they’ve been the

Last 25 years to take them to the Conference Finals and I think there’s look I know that that Milwaukee matchup is looming so it’s Milwaukee or Boston in the second round at the Nicks can get past the first round right I think I like the Milwaukee

Matchup better for them to get to the Conference Finals I may eat my words on that but that’s where I’m at in light of what the Bucks transition defense has been for most of the year it’s been better under the Doc Rivers but for most

Of the year do the Bucks want to see the Pacers in the 36 interesting I know the Pacers want to see the Bucks in the 36 I know that Beasley sure wants to see the Pacers all right always fun fellas I’m sure I didn’t say anything controversial today

Um I’ll see you guys soon we’ll see you he

On this Monday’s episode of ‘The Old Man and the Three Things’, JJ Redick is joined by Nekias Duncan and Steve Jones Jr. of The Dunker Spot to decide if Dallas Mavericks star Luka Doncic has a legitimate MVP case this season, discuss what they think is the best way to defend Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets, and create some playoff seeding hypotheticals. Let’s go!

0:00 Intro
0:22 Luka Doncic
15:20 Guarding the Denver Nuggets
25:13 Playoffs

Subscribe to The Old Man and The Three podcast w/ JJ Redick (ESPN / First Take) and Tommy Alter YouTube channel today for more NBA analysis, player interviews and highlights.