Good W for the Cavs today. Wanted to offer some insight on tiebreakers for people who are watching the action in the rest of the league.
In other action, while I wrote this the Bucks beat the Magic and the Mavs beat the Heat, narrowing the possibilities.
Overall tiebreakers:
* With Knicks we lose – lost H2H
* With Bucks ~~still TBD~~ we win – tied H2H. If we manage to tie them in record, we have the better division record and would win the division. Thanks /u/SkaakS
* With Magic we lose – tied H2H and they likely win their division. If they lose their division, it means they lose out and can’t tie us for record anyhow.
* Pacers ~~TBD~~ we lose – if they tie us for record, they own the division record, but the only way they can tie us for record is with a win on Friday that gives them H2H as well.
EDIT 2! Shoutout to /u/Jazzlike-Wishbone902 who pointed out that the tiebreaker rules for a 3-team tie are different than for a 2 team. In the case of a three team tie, division winner win’s the tie! This affects us positively for an additional 2-seed scenario. It doesn’t change the tiebreaker potentials for the Magic, since they own the tiebreaker against us anyhow: https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nba/news/nba-tiebreakers-playoff-standings-play-seeding/18934dfdba44ddcbc360b482
>Tiebreaker Basis – Three or More Teams Tied
>(1) Division leader wins tie from team not leading a division (this criterion is applied regardless of whether the tied teams are in the same division)
NOTE: In all the scenarios below, the stuff that **has to happen is in bold**. I’m pretty sure this is all correct, but feel free to point out any mistakes!
***Scenarios for Cavs Finish 2-0***
2 seed – ~~1~~2 possibilit~~y~~ies
* Scenario 1 – **Knicks finish 1-2 or worse**, **Bucks finish 0-2**, Magic finish any finish where they beat the Bucks, Pacers any finish. Cavs 2, Bucks 3, Knicks 4. We win the tiebreak with the Bucks, Knicks drop in the standing and might even end up tied with the Magic.
* EDIT – Scenario 2 – **Bucks finish 0-2, Knicks finish 2-1**, Magic any finish where they beat the Bucks, Pacers any finish. Cavs at 2, Bucks at 3, Knicks at 4. We win the 3-way tie by winning the division (see edit above), Knicks lose the H2H tiebreak to the Bucks to drop to 4.
3 seed – 2 possibilities
* Scenario 1 – **Bucks finish 0-2**, **Knicks finish 3-0**, Magic any finish where they beat the Bucks, Pacers any finish. Knicks at 2, Cavs at 3.
* Scenario 2 – Bucks finish 1-1 or better, Knicks finish 1-2 or worse, Magic any finish, Pacers any finish. Bucks at 2, Cavs at 3
4 seed – 1 possibility
* Scenario 1 – Bucks finish 1-1 or better, Knicks finish 2-1 or better, Magic any finish, Pacers any finish. Knicks/Bucks at 2/3, Cavs at 4.
5 seed or lower – Not possible if we finish 2-0, Pacers and Magic can’t catch us.
***Scenarios for Cavs finish 1-1 with victory over Pacers***
2 seed – Not possible if we finish 1-1, we stay behind the Bucks at minimum
3 seed – 1 possibility
* Scenario 1 – Bucks any finish, **Knicks finish 0-3**, **Magic 1-1 or worse**, Pacers any finish. Bucks at 2, Cavs at 3.
4 seed – 2 possibilities
* Scenario 1 – Bucks any finish that includes beating the Magic again, **Knicks any finish 1-2 or better**, **Magic 1-1**, Pacers any finish. Knicks and Bucks at 2/3, Cavs at 4 to face the Magic at 5.
* Scenario 1 – Bucks any finish that includes losing to the Magic, **Knicks finish 0-3, Magic 2-0,** Pacers any finish. Bucks at 2, Magic at 3, Cavs at 4 for a rematch with the Knicks at 5.
5 seed – 2 possibilities (different matchups)
* Scenario 1 – Bucks any finish that includes losing to the Magic, Knicks finish 2-1 or better, **Magic 2-0,** Pacers any finish. Bucks at 2, Knicks at 3, Magic at 4, Cavs at 5
* Scenario 1 – Bucks any finish that includes losing to the Magic, **Knicks finish 1-2**, **Magic 2-0,** Pacers any finish. Bucks at 2, Magic at 3, Knicks at 4, Cavs at 5
6 seed or lower – not possible if we beat the Pacers
***Scenarios for Cavs finish 1-1 with loss to the Pacers***
2 seed – Not possible if we finish 1-1, we can’t catch the Bucks and lose all tiebreakers to everybody else
3 seed – 1 possibility
* Scenario 1 – Bucks any finish that includes beating the Magic, **Knicks 0-3**, Magic any finish that includes losing to Bucks, **Pacers 1-1**. Bucks at 2, Cavs at 3, Pacers at 4
4 seed – 2 possibilities
* Scenario 1 – Bucks any finish that includes beating the Magic again, Knicks 1-2 or better, **Magic 1-1, Pacers 1-1**. Knicks and Bucks at 2/3, Cavs at 4 to face the Magic at 5.
* Scenario 1 – Bucks any finish that includes beating the Magic again, Knicks 1-2 or better, **Magic 0-2, Pacers 1-1**. Knicks and Bucks at 2/3, Cavs at 4 to face the Pacers at 5.
5 seed – 2 possibilities
* Scenario 1 – Bucks any finish, Knicks finish 1-2 or better, **Magic 1-1, Pacers 2-0**. Bucks at 2, Magic at 3, Pacers at 4, Cavs at 5
* Scenario 2 – Bucks any finish that includes losing to the Magic, Knicks finish 1-2 or better, **Magic 2-0, Pacers 1-1**. Bucks at 2, Magic at 3, Magic at 4, Cavs at 5
6 seed – 1 possibility
* Scenario 1 – Bucks any finish that includes losing to the Magic, Knicks finish 1-2 or better, **Magic 2-0, Pacers 2-0**. Bucks at 2, Magic at 3, Magic at 4, Pacers at 5, Cavs at 6
7 seed – not possible if we beat the Hornets
***Scenarios for Cavs finish 0-2. Now we have to think about the Sixers :(***
2 seed – Nope
3 seed – Nope
4 seed – Nope
5 seed – 1 possibility
* Scenario 1 – Bucks any finish that includes beating the Magic, Knicks any finish, **Magic 0-2**, Pacers any finish, **Sixers 1-1**. Bucks/Knicks at 2/3, Pacers at 4, Cavs at 5
6 seed – 2 possibilities
* Scenario 1 – Bucks any finish, Knicks any finish, **Magic 1-1 or better, Pacers 2-0, Sixers 1-1**. Bucks/Knicks at 2/3, Pacers/Magic at 4/5, Cavs 6, Sixers 7
* Scenario 2 – Bucks any finish that includes beating the Magic, Knicks any finish, **Magic 0-2,** **Pacers 1-1 or better,** **Sixers 2-0**. Bucks/Knicks at 2/3, Pacers/Sixers at 4/5, Cavs 6, Magic 7
7 seed – 1 Possibility
* Scenario 1 – Bucks any finish that includes losing to the Magic, Knicks any finish, **Magic 1-1 and lose to Sixers,** **Pacers 1-1 or better**, **Sixers 2-0**. Bucks/Knicks at 2/3, Pacers/Sixers/Magic at 4/5/6, Cavs 7 and face the Heat for the Play-in game.
Hope this helps!
by WitOfTheIrish
8 Comments
Doing God’s work my friend thank you. One thing I gathered is with a win against the Pacers Friday we’re guaranteed 5 seed or higher. That game is obviously much more important than the Hornets game.
Also – I cannot believe a play-in scenario still exists for us
Wow, you da real MVP! Are you sure about the Bucks being TBD? Even with a Pacers loss we’d still have a better division record (10-6) than them (10-7)
I don’t see a world where we make it out of the first round unless we play the Magic or Pacers and even then I’m unsure. I’m not trying to be a doomer, this is my favorite team but I’m just so worried for our future.
Even if Donovan does decide to stay the roster will need to make some serious changes to become a serious contender. I don’t see DG and Mitchell both being on the team past this off-season or next off-season at most 🙁
I think best case scenario is being 3rd or 4th seed and facing either Pacers or Magic.
Basketball is a game of skill but the mental part is just as important, winning the 1st round would do wonders for players confidence and the Cavs really need it.
First off, this is a legendary post. How did do you do it?
2nd, I agree with others who say we want to play the Magic or Pacers. Even though the Magic have the H2H, they don’t have any playoff experience. They have a great defense which would pose a threat but I think we can win if we shoot well. If Sam and Dean get healthy, that would go a long way. Similarly the Pacers are a young team too with limited playoff experience and a potent offense. But I think we can put Ice on Halliburton and Evan on Siakam and keep them under wraps.
I think odds are we see the Magic in round 1. I like our chances. They’re a good team, and a physical team, but overall I think we match up better against them than they do against us. Whatever second round matchup that gives us I don’t particularly like, but whatever conference finals is potentially headed our way I don’t hate. Randle being gone certainly helps our chances, and Embiid; as well as he’s been playing is still a bit of an asterisk. Say what you will about JB, I won’t be a hater or one to praise, but as it stands right now if we play well we’re primed for a run
You are a superhero my friend.
Do you think the Cavs want to finish 3/4 so they could play ORL or IND?
I think I’m scenario 1, with Cavs going 2-0, bucks 0-2, even if Knicks go 2-1, we still win the three way tie break, since the first tiebreaker is deciding the division winner, which the cavs win with the bucks. As the division winner they win the three way tiebreaker.