Pacers-Celtics Predictions: Will Tatum & Boston face first test vs. RED HOT Indiana? | Hoops Tonight

Pacers-Celtics Predictions: Will Tatum & Boston face first test vs. RED HOT Indiana? | Hoops Tonight

all right welcome to Hoops tonight here at the volume happy Monday again everybody hope all of you guys are having a great start to your week we have our first series preview of the Conference finals today we’re hitting the Indiana Pacers and the Boston Celtics you guys know the drill before we get started subscribe to our brand new YouTube channels so you don’t miss any more of our videos follow me on Twitter atore Jason LT so you guys don’t miss show announcements don’t forget about our podcast feed wherever you get your podcast under Hoops tonight and keep dropping mailbag questions in those YouTube comments so we can keep hitting them throughout the rest of the postseason all right let’s talk some basketball so we’re going to do just like we usually do on the series previews we’re going to go through the season series talk about some stats that we saw from the regular season between these teams go over the gambling odds Pacers on offense Celtics on offense and then I will give my pick so Boston won the season series 3 to2 Boston beat them by 41 at home in early November the Pacers beat them in the in-season tournament quarterfinals remember that was in the uh inseason tournament games where you actually hosted the game at home so Indiana was at home in that game they ended up winning I think 122 to 112 Boston then went and beat them in Indiana by 17 in early January but then two days later still in Indiana Indiana won by two points so Indiana did get two wins both in Indiana in the series and then the Celtics beat them by five in Boston on January 30th so I only look at the matchup where Pascal yakum played but if I’m not mistaken I think Al Horford did not play in that game and I think that was one of the games that Tyrese Halbert and still missed a good chunk of the game with his hamstring injury so not too much that we can take away from the regular season series except for that Indiana has been more confident in this matchup at home stats from the season series Boston had a 126 offensive rating Indiana had a 114 offensive rating so that’s a plus 12 net in favor of Boston Boston dominated the rebound uh the rebounding Battle 56.1% of available rebounds went to Boston Indiana won points off of turnovers 16. 6 to 13.8 per game Second Chance points 15.4 to 14.8 per game fast break points scored 13.4 to 12.8 per game and points in the paint 55.2 to 51.6 so Indiana does have advantages in the margins in this series but I think Boston is very clearly the better half court team which we’ll get into in detail here in just a minute per DraftKings the Celtics are favored once again to win by a massive margin they are minus 900 on draft k to advance to the NBA finals all right let’s start with the Pacers on offense I’m going to go through the matchups really quick and then we’ll get into some details so Jaylen Brown Drew holiday and Derek white all spent time on Tyrese Alberton as a primary matchup during the regular season but I think they’ll probably start with Derek white Dereck white was the direction they went in their most recent matchup so I think that’s the direction they’re going to go with Andrew nard I think we’ll see Drew Holliday in that matchup with Aon neith I think we’ll see Jaylen Brown at least to start we’re going to go over some options here in a minute with the SE yakum Turner matchups that’s where it gets interesting because Miles Turner is shooting 46% from three in these playoffs Pascal zakum is only shooting 32% so Boston may end up starting with Horford on Turner but they’ll be extremely vulnerable to the pick and pop there right like that’s one of the pet actions that Indiana’s going to run Halbert is going to bring the ball up the floor Turner is going to set the screen as halberton turns the corner goes downhill and attacks at Horford or at porzingis or whoever it is and Derek White whoever it is is on the ball is chasing after halberton Turner is just going to pop out to that three-point line and he’s going to be wide open that’s going to be a big uh like coverage Gap that Indiana can take advantage of in this series this is where Jason Tatum and his defensive versatility comes to the table and like we’ve talked a lot about this in this playoff run like for all of the conversations surrounding Tatum scoring inconsistency which I think is fair when it comes to his total package as a basketball player because he’s such a big strong forward and because he has such a high basketball IQ through experience in all these big games he’s a very useful like Swiss army knife in a lot of these types of situations we saw for instance in the Cleveland series Jason Tatum take Evan Mobley for long stretches because he could switch ball screens right that’s going to be a big direction that I think will’ll see Boston go in this series I think sooner than later we’ll see Jason Tatum move over to the Miles Turner matchup the advantage there is Turner’s not going to be able to bully Tatum in the post and then if you run a ball screen with halberton and turn you can literally just switch it and now Tatum is on halberton and uh and Derek white well excuse me now Tatum’s on Halbert and you have Derek white or whoever it is that’s on the ball that’s on Miles Turner and again if they go if Indiana tries to attack through the post with Miles Turner you’re just kind of okay with that there right so like I think we’ll see that direction eventually because Pascal cakam is shooting only 32% from three and also Al Horford is a very gifted positional Defender one of Al Horford’s best best traits as a Defender is he can read you and find out which direction you’re going beat you to the spot and then offer a contest and make you shoot over the top like he’s not a super aggressive ball pressure like force turnovers guy but he’s a guy that can at least play you into your weaknesses as a basketball player and so with sakam that’s what that’s going to be preventing him from getting downhill and all the way to the rim but rather just beating him to spots and forcing him to make shots over the top so in ISO situations I like Horford to at least be able to do a decent job on sakam and then closing out to the three-point line I expect him to be able to close out short and kind of just contain as he’s driving now what if SE yakum gets going because we’ve seen this right like SE yakum has had issues where uh uh like let’s say for instance that they the Pacers go to Turner ball screens and Tatum switches and they kind of shut that down so they go okay let’s bring Horford up into the ball screen let’s attack with sakam as a screen screener right seak is probably going to pop and in those situations you’re having Horford offer a late close out now let’s say that Horford let’s say that sakam gets going right SE yakum hits a few threes maybe it turns out that se yakum is too fast for Horford at this phase of his career and he just starts toasting Horford off the dribble or maybe even when porzingis is in the game later points in the series if you have similar problems there there’s another option that Boston can go to that I think makes some sense you could actually end up sliding Jaylen Brown onto sakam and once again switch those screens in the event that they run SE yakum in the ball screen because of the fact that Aon nemith has not been shooting the ball particularly well from three he’s shooting 30% from three in the playoffs he hit two for two in game seven against the Knicks but he was pretty cold in the few games before that so you could basically just put Horford on N Smith in Rome and try conceding those threes which will allow you to contain the ball screen actions with uh uh halberton and seak or halberton in Turner and that’s just the advantage of having two forwards like Jaylen Brown and Jason Tatum that have the versatility to guard guards and to guard bigger players now the biggest issue Boston will have in my opinion is going to have to do mainly with halberton when he’s coming off of those screens with speed when Horford is in the action so let’s say Horford’s on N Smith and they and Horford comes up to the level of the screen on on Halbert one of the weak NES that Boston has as we saw with Donovan Mitchell in the last round and as we saw a little bit with Tyler harrow in the first round although it’s a much lesser player they can be somewhat vulnerable to pull-up Shooters right guys that can come off the screen with pace and kind of cause issues for that screen Defender coming up to the level that’s something that Boston has shown some vulnerability to so that’s like the one thing in the half court where I could see uh Indiana having a good amount of consistent success is like I do think that Tyrus Al Burton is capable of doing some damage to Horford in ball screens or porzingis in ball screens but outside of that though I think they’ve got the the Personnel to make things a lot more difficult Elsewhere on the floor Indiana’s main advantage as an as an offensive team in this series is going to be in transition so they’ve scored 329 points in transition in this playoff run that’s 25.3 per game that’s the most out of any of the playoff teams that have appeared in this playoff run they are the only one of the four remaining teams in the Conference Finals to average over 20 transition points per game so as much as Boston’s halfcourt personnel has the ability to match up with Indiana in all of these ways that’s not where Indiana is going to look to attack they’re going to look to run like absolute crazy this is where Hal Burton and TJ McConnell they are just these these StraightLine Drive dribble penetration wreck havoc type of guys right and getting out in transition getting cross matches getting you know they’ll they’ll they’ll try to push and see if they can’t get early offense opportunities for sakam to attack against like a dere white or one of their smaller guards right like they’re going to constantly be looking to push as much as possible but there’s another side of this coin Boston has been the best transition defense in or transition defense I should say in the in the playoffs so far they’ve allowed just 14.6 points in transition per game that is the fewest out of any of the 16 teams that have appeared in a Playoff Series this year so it’s kind of like a you know uh it’s kind of like a clash of two elite units there Indiana’s transition offense versus Boston’s transition defense here are the keys for both teams in my opinion for Boston have to contain the ball they have excellent guard Defenders with Drew holiday and with Derek white right if they contain dribble penetration for TJ McConnell and tyres halberton that will shut Indiana’s p uh offense off they are an advantage creation offense all their guys off the ball are play finishers Aaron n Smith is a play finisher uh Andrew neard can run second side action but not to a super effective level against super Elite defenses so I look at him is a guy that that if you can avoid Advantage situations you can contain a little bit SE yakum is a guy that can operate on an island a little bit but he’s an elite play finisher Miles Turner is a play finisher the Obi toppen is a play finisher these are guys that you know even Ben Shepard play finisher these are guys that are primarily looking to attack with an advantage so if you can contain dribble penetration not just in the half but also in transition by getting back and just kind of containing their ball handlers you will go do a lot of of damage to Indiana’s offense second part of it protect Horford and porzingis as much as possible by giving them easier matchups Miles Turner pick and pop that could be an issue right SE yakum potentially could be an issue although I think Horford has a chance to do a decent job on him but finding ways to to stash him on a guy like n Smith who you don’t need to necessarily worry about to a great extent on the three-point line that could go a long way to protecting those guys in ball screens n Smith is also not a great movement shooter so if he pops to the three-point line in ball screens as long as they’re up at the level and they contain the ball you can almost you know deal with some of the issues that you have in terms of foot speed uh containing halberton by like just being super aggressive like coming way out to the level just making him get rid of the basketball because he’s going to be getting rid of it to n Smith who hasn’t shot the ball particularly well now n Smith will slash off the catch on the wing and that’s a way he can do a lot of damage did a lot of that in game seven against the Knicks right but that’s something that you can deal with in defensive rotation so again containing the ball in transition in the half court is going to be the major piece there and protecting Horford and porzingis by giving them easier matchups for Indiana attack Horford wherever he is as we saw like I talked about earlier with Donovan Mitchell and Tyler Harrow you can have success against Boston’s defense by attacking them in ball screens with pull-up Shooters right Tyrus Alberton has been shooting the ball a lot better as of late he brings a lot of speed to the equation there that is their best entry point in the half court attacking the big guys in ball screens pushing transition to the maximum possible extent this is going to have another layer to it on the defensive end which we’ll get to in a minute but I think they’re going to lose the half court battle Boston has better half court Personnel so you have to sew chaos as much as possible get push the ball at the floor look for quick Cross matches for for seum look for run outs quick early threes early offense just upping the pace as much as possible to turn the series into a track meet that to me is their only hope we’re this close to crowning a new NBA champ and with the action heating up on the court it’s even hotter at draftking Sportsbook an official sports betting partner of the NBA there’s only so many games left draftking Sportsbook has you covered with same game parlays live betting odds boosts and so much more don’t miss out or you’ll have to wait until next NBA season to place your bets it’s super easy for first- timers to get started try betting on something simple like picking a team to win go to the draftking Sportsbook app select your squad and place your first bet it’s that simple the championship odds right now as we head into the Conference Finals according to DraftKings Boston’s at minus 150 the Timberwolves at plus 275 the Mavericks at plus 500 and the Indiana Pacers a long shot at plus 2500 new to DraftKings listen up new customers can get a no sweat bet up to 1,500 bucks just deposit at least five bucks and you’ll get a bonus bet back equal to your first bet if it doesn’t hit download the the draftking Sportsbook app now and use code Hoops that’s ho o o PS that’s code Hoops for new customers to get a no sweat bet up to 1,500 bucks if your first bet doesn’t hit only on DraftKings the crown is yours let’s look at Boston on offense with drick white I think I think we’ll see Andrew nard there with uh Drew holiday I think we’ll see Tyrese halberton there main reason why is Drew holiday is not as good of a movement shooter as Derek white is right so if halberton is going to hedge and recover you want to hedge and recover and leave an opening with true holiday uh like we talked about with the Nick series remember there was a lot of hedging and blitzing from halberton but it was Duce McBride who was primarily operating out of that right so you want to make the the worst movement shooter of the group try to move uh uh uh work off of those halberton Hedges I think we’ll see SE yakum on Jaylen Brown and I think we’ll see Aaron n Smith on Jason Tatum uh at least to start we’ll see if they tweak the matchups over the course of the series The Tatum white so like here’s the thing I want to start with let’s start with Aaron Smith on Jason Tatum so Aaron n Smith is quicker than Jason Tatum and he’s got a really strong build so he can avoid some of the bully ball stuff so on an island whenever they go like one-on-one he should be able to force Tatum to settle into pullup jumpers and we the the main issue there is just fouling CU like in the for instance inseason tournament championship game there were a bunch of possessions down the stretch of that game where n Smith forced Tatum to settle for tough contested mid-range jumpers but he like fouled him on one on the left Baseline where he kind of pressed too far up underneath him so that’s the main piece is just be careful not to foul him but in the on an island situations I really really like that matchup specifically with the Tatum white Twan game they ran that a bunch down the stretch of the inseason tournament champ uh not Championship excuse me quarterfinal but in the inseason tournament quarterfinal they ran a lot of Derrick White Jason Tatum two-man game and in those setups n Smith was able to fight over the top of the screens and avoid switches in many of those cases and that actually like help stagnate Boston’s offense down the stretch of that game anything with Drew holiday like I mentioned earlier you hedge and recover with halberton if Boston looks to just attack halberton so like if they just throw the ball to Drew holiday and try to post up or ISO halberton I take that as a win for Indiana because that’s like a rhythm disruptor for the rest of the offense even if he scores a few buckets in the post each half like that it just kind of disrupts the flow of Boston’s offense which at its best is driving and kicking for wide openen threes right uh keys for both teams with Boston ball movement don’t get carried away with matchup hunting generate a quick advantage in playoff of that the main advantage actions that I look at for them are Horford pick and pop right because Miles Turner is going to run a drop coverage so just like we talked about earlier with Miles Turner if like let’s say eron n Smith is on Tatum if n Smith is going to chase Tatum over the top and Turner is going to Coral him in a drop coverage then Horford can pop to the three-point line he’s going to be open every sing single time from there if he’s got the three-point shot going he can keep shooting it if not he can play drive and kick just rip to the middle bring that next defender or swing to a probably a really good shooter standing in the corner right so that’s a good entry point for them secondly Drew slipping out of the Hedge in Blitz just like what the Knicks did with uh with du McBride right Halton Hedges just quickly get rid of the ball to Drew on the roll I think that’s where you go with Tatum because Tatum can see over the top really well he’ll handle those blitzes really well uh I think are best passer so just have have that uh uh have Tatum handle that action when halberton uh Hedges just dump it off to Drew same thing we just talked about with Al Horford if he’s got the shot going take the shot if not just drive the uh drive that uh Advantage from the top of the key bring in an extra Defender make those kickouts from there but again ball movement’s going to be key do not play down to the competition hunt elite shot quality throughout the series and again this you got to look at it like there’s a decent chance according to Vegas I think Minnesota is a minus 190 favorite to beat Dallas I will be picking Minnesota in all likelihood I haven’t done my series preview yet but that’s what I’m most likely going to pick you’re going to be playing just an unbelievably good defense potentially in the championship round and I think Dallas is a better defense than Indiana anyway so like it’s going to be a tough battle in the NBA finals and like this is another Series where you have an opportunity to kind of Polish up some of your decision- making before you get to that point lastly uh get favorable matchups for Tatum I like Tatum attacking literally anybody except for Aaron n Smith on this Pacers roster I think he’s got a quickness and strength advantage against Pascal sakam I think he’s got a speed advantage against any of of uh any of the bigger players that Indiana will play I think he can do damage to the smaller guards guys like ncei or nard and uh and halberton but n Smith specifically I think is like the fire hydrant type that can keep him in front and force him in to contest a jumper so set solid screens to force switches TR pushing the ball in transition to get cross matches and then whenever you get those mismatches for Tatum just clear the side and let him go to work that’s where I think Tatum is at his best cleared side usually from the right block is where I prefer Tatum going to work and then lastly I put this in all bold just shot selection just decision-making and shot selection like I mentioned earlier you’re prepping for a much tougher challenge in the future this is this is a series where you’ve got to tighten those things up before you get into the next round on the Indiana front how do you play Boston into poor shooting nights that’s your best chance to win right the easiest way to play a team and do a poor shooting night is by fatiguing them how do you fatigue them through physicality which is like ball pressure right just doing everything with Force to make sure they’re tired and then two push the pace this is the defensive element of making the game into a track meat tired legs are more likely to miss shots make Boston play faster than they’re typically used to playing you have a better opportunity of playing them into poor shooting nights but the reality is Boston is going to get good looks from three in this series and if they make them you’re probably going to lose that’s the problem with having five Shooters on the floor the way that Boston does and having a guy like Halton that you can easily attack and get the defense in rotation so and even just having a pick and pop piig like the Celtics are going to have two easy actions they can run at any given time which is the Horford pick and pop or the Drew holiday pick and slip any one of those you’re going to get the defense in rotation from there you’re playing drive and kick with five Shooters so Boston’s gonna get great looks in the half court really I think Indiana’s only chance is to just play Crazy Fast and try to fatigue Boston into having poor shooting nights and just kind of leaning into their specific advantages I’m picking Boston I think they have better Personnel on both ends of the floor and I think they have the best player in the series but I do think Indiana is going to push this series to six games Boston has a tendency to ease up after getting a lead which we’ve seen multiple times in this playoff run already and Indiana’s really good at home Indiana’s 6-0 undefeated at home in this postseason they have a 126 offensive rating at home they’ve Beat Boston at home twice this year so I think that Indiana is going to find ways to extend the series through just the the the energy of their home crowd and through their speed and just them playing super super hard but I just have a hard time believing Indiana can win a series like this four times out of seven when Boston has the Personnel advantages that they have on both ends of the floor we will be live on YouTube after the final buzzer of game oneor tomorrow night to break it all down I will see you guys there [Music]

Jason Timpf shares his predictions for Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and the Boston Celtics’ Eastern Conference Finals matchup with Tyrese Haliburton, Pascal Siakam, and the Indiana Pacers. Will Indiana be able to stay red hot against a Celtics team which has dominated the East all season long? What are the chances of a Boston collapse? Jason breaks it all down and shares his prediction for who will advance to the NBA Finals to take on Anthony Edwards’ Timberwolves or Luka Doncic’s Mavericks.

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