Miami Heat: Projecting their financial offseason with Yossi Gozlan | Five on the Floor

Miami Heat: Projecting their financial offseason with Yossi Gozlan | Five on the Floor

welcome to ladies episode five on the floor in the five reason Sports Network thanks for joining us on your favorite podcast app Apple we recommend Apple podcast Android Spotify or the Five Reasons YouTube channel check out off the floor that’s where the conversation on the heat never stops 10 different channels including a Draft channel and a transaction Channel both of those things are relevant to this particular episode also you get host updates and again you can find fellow Heat fans you don’t have to get the same five tweets uh same five tweeters all day long so check it out off the floor $2.9 9 cents per month link is right here in the description of the podcast feed and uh the Youtube and of the YouTube channel also check out the great sponsors of the FI Reon Sports Network our friend Nelson his family his team if you work in a medical office or a hospital reach out to them great people 561 891 9620 that’s 561 891 9620 it’s mobile CR Staffing Services what do they do they bring the X-ray equipment and the Staffing right to your office so check them out at c-arm staffing.com c-arm staffing.com or again reach out to Nelson directly at 561 891 9620 and if I go too fast because I always do on this reach out to me at the five reason Sports Twitter account and I will give you their information directly and now today’s episode five on the floor ride for my dogs where here the you can check the score Hustle Hard couple scars wearing bubble frogs just like Buck said you in trouble y’ check the Flor play got it all B y’all seen the block stop with one hand and P trust it’s F have the guts we’re here to bring the heat y’all can hang it up welcome to five on the floor a daily Insider show on the Miami Heat and the NBA featuring Ethan skullet Greg sander and Alex Toledo plus others from the five reasons Sports Network all right welcome back to five on the floor here’s today’s floor plan I’m Ethan skolnick you can follow me at Ethan J skolik and five reason Sports I got Greg sander you can find him at Greg sander and for the second time bringing him back after a successful first voyage here Yosi Goslin you can find his YouTube work and everything that he does at his Twitter feed again it’s exactly the same as his name we like that Yosi Goslin yoss SSI g o z l an and what we’re going to do today we’re going to take a heat focus with this as we typically do um obviously there’s a lot of transaction stuff that’s out there today uh some reports that that Cleveland feels pretty good about resigning Donovan Mitchell so maybe we won’t get to the 38 Episodes that we got to with Dame Lillard um but maybe we can consider this the third one in a series but we will talk about other things so I’ll start here with you see and and let’s um let’s put this in a in a macro context how would you grade the Heat’s current cap situation cap and tax so I did a lot of research just this week about it and even with all these new hiccups with the the CBA the second apron stuff which I’m sure when the he were making all the getting all these contracts with bam and Jimmy’s extension over the years and Duncan’s contract I’m not obviously they had no idea this stuff was coming I’m sure that this was a curveball and to some degree but even then they are I I think they’re still in really good shape uh at least for the next two years for sure uh once bam is ready to get his next contract which you know presumably would be in the max range and a Max by then is going to be like 50 million plus a year okay then things start to get a little more complicated Jimmy still wants more money but you know we don’t we’ll see what happens then and they’ll presumably want to either out a third star or maybe replace Jimmy was another star but even with this all this other money they have with Tyler hero and and Terry rier Duncan Robinson like I mentioned they’re they’re I think they’re still in pretty good shape um the I guess the biggest thing is one are they able to consolidate some of it for another max player or just maybe just a better backt player doesn’t necessarily need to be an allar um or are or I think more pressing they they probably need a if unless like yic really becomes that guy they probably need another good front Court player well I let you jump in on this yeah for sure uh Yosi thanks for coming back on and I let’s start here you talked about the extensions let’s go through Jimmy Butler bamat bio both extension eligible this summer kind of you talk about how it gets dicey once those guys get paid is there any incentive for bam AO to wait for an extension or to take the money now how do you see that playing out and also with Jimmy Butler um his max extension could be a pretty hefty sum as well probably over $50 million per as well I’m just interested to get your perspective on both of those from a timing standpoint where you see those things kind of happening for the heat so I’ll start with Jimmy’s first because I think it’s more simple and despite whatever you know Pat riy may have said in the media and whatever hangups about will you know will the age well into it I actually think it’s a little less complicated because if he were to do um either the um either either extension he does it’s all it’s equal money whether he adds the the one year or he declines the option adds two the it’s basically three years 161 both of them so the real question is do you want to have Jimmy uh for 2627 because the extra money he’s making it’s really not that much more than he’s currently making the cap will go up by then so I think with him it’s just a year-by-year thing is Jimmy still playing really well um because no matter what he’s going to want top dollar so I don’t think I don’t know if the extension gets done now I I I would guess they probably wait until next year and and go from there maybe uh you know he still got another year left so but either way the money is not that much more but what’s really going to shake things up in their cap sheet is once Bam gets that new extension so he can extend this summer for three maximum of 166 million and he can take that and you know I’m it’s it’s it’s a lot it’s definitely a lot of money but it does make sense to wait he’s been getting a lot better over the years his offense he’s like his offensive Arsenal is expanding he’s there’s definitely a lot of like I I was a little surprised when he first got that Max contract and he’s surpassed it he’s gone above and beyond to meet the value of it and more so and he’s getting better so he can wait mainly because he could still qualify for the super max if he wins defensive player of the year he’s gonna he’s gonna have some competition with Wendy but with but like he also played third that’s the high I think that’s the highest he ever placed for the award right and and the and the first time too that he’s been all all first team defense so it it does feel like there a little bit of a ground spell but also feels like wem’s gonna own the next 10 years so I that’s that that’s the challeng here I mean what you mentioned though about Jimmy that see this is again there’s a um there’s a logical way to look at this and then there’s the emotional way that I think this is ultimately going to go and this is what the Heat have to weigh because what you said is true he don’t have to do it right now I mean Pat said it I mean we first thing they can’t even do it till July 7th but he said we don’t have to do anything right now that means this year okay they could technically wait until next year to do it but I’ve said that I think if they don’t give him the extension he’s going to walk he’s going to he’s going to opt out and he’s going to take a three-year contract somewhere else that that this is and I I have this on pretty good authority that I’m confident that that’s what people around him think he’s going to do because that’s very Jimmy Butler like thing to do it’s going to be okay I’ll ball out for one year and then see you you didn’t want to extend me then I’m not going to extend with you now that that’s that’s the risk that they run because otherwise I agree with you like and and this gets back to something we talked about with b and you’re getting into bam here but they could have waited with bam I mean right and they kind of they submarine themselves a little bit in the Giannis Pursuit I don’t know that it would have happened but that it it certainly made it harder because they gave bam the extension right away they also did the same with Tyler um and and some of so I I don’t know if they’re going to do that with Jimmy certainly the tea Le suggested and based on Pat’s press conference that they’re not they don’t have to but if they don’t they are taking a risk that goes beyond the financial part of this I I I want want to Pivot a little bit on this um and again we talk about three max players is it even feasible let’s go macro again NBA is it it even feasible to have three Maxes these days and succeed well it depends on which type because there’s three different but it’ll be definitely tougher for the heat because one if they have Jimmy making the the super Max and then the last point about about bam he can take that regular Max now that’s roughly 55 million a year but if he gets defensive player the year or all NBA now we’re talking potentially 70 million a year so that’s so that’s where things really get more complicated it’s really hard to project that far out once he’s actually on that next deal what could happen I can really I could really only project like these next two years and and when you look at what Bam’s making now which is now relatively relatively cheap and then uh what Jimmy’s making now okay that’s you know one of the higher paid players in the league you could fit in a Donovan Mitchell which yeah he’s been the player linked now to multiple teams including the he cuz his max isn’t even you know at the highest of the levels and even when he does get that next contract next year it I I I looked at I looked into it could still work I don’t know for how long but they could make it work for at least maybe a year or two that’s interesting because I think everyone wants the three star situation to come to Miami I’ve been reluctant to Hope traffic anything of the sort because I think it gets diff it gets difficult with the salary cap to your point and it’s going to get difficult to the point where if Caleb Martin opts out this summer Heyward heith is a free agent the heat are gonna have some decisions to make and so from your perspective forget going out and getting more um Talent from different teams can they retain their own guys in Caleb Martin and Haywood heith this summer uh and how how do those numbers stack up from your projections and kind of I’m interested to hear what you think Caleb will make on the open market because that’s been a big heated topic uh and just pick your brain uh related to those two guys as Miami’s Caleb Martin’s not a free agent yet and I know that there’s some uh creative things they could do with sign in trades or opt in and trade to be extended there’s fun stuff but just those guys as free agents what do you think will happen with Miami so I’ll just start with some rough valuations so when looking at Caleb Martin most the teams that are that are going to go after him have the mid-level op for you know starts at like just under 13 mil that he can top that they have his bird rights so if they’re if they want to bring him back uh what’s something that’s kind of like okay we beat the field and hopefully it’s something that uh and hopefully there’s no cap space teams that maybe offer some like crazy two-year deals that are like front loaded and the best comp I could think is what the Lakers gave ruy haimura last year not that they’re like equal players but both kind of in similar positions um you know like fourth or fifth options for on the on the starting or closing lineups they gave ruy roughly 17 Milli year so maybe Caleb could do something like that where it’s like you know a slightly higher version of that maybe 18 M year for like two three years maybe he wants to keep it short um you know to try to get some more money there’s no way there there’s no way right like I I’m just I I I’m just I’m just saying like I they’re not they’re not they’re not doing it right I mean they’re gonna say what they said about Max right which is thank you for your service maybe you want to come back again someday but and we’d love to have you you were great uh you know had great moments in the playoffs but more so maybe in Caleb’s case than Max’s but yeah I can’t see them doing that with with the second apron concerns and everything else they’re dealing with right it’s just not happening so I agree in the sense that if they don’t like the number they will just be like all thank you but we’re we can probably figure something out thank thankfully we have H Haka thankfully we have Nicola yic we can probably find someone else like this is what we do we’re the heat we find you guys and but we don’t want to pay you guys after what happened in 2016 and 20 you know yeah mainly 2016 so uh but I I have looked into it could they could make a fit uh you know I’ve looked into multiple scenario they could make a fit but I would agree that ultimately no they just don’t they don’t pay these guys but the big big difference between Caleb Martin and Max stru and Gabe Vinson is is positioning it’s ex definitely more way more valuable to what the heat need in the closing lineup in the playoffs but maybe they could get someone better uh maybe you know when they do if they do make some big trades if they want to reshuffle the back court for example maybe they don’t get a back court upgrade maybe they do get a different front cord upgrade um I don’t know what player that could be and then for Haywood heith uh he I could see him getting like around 8 to n million year just like you know Trey ly that’s something he got backup this backup for money like what Ken Williams kind of makes um and I’m just looking at the highend of what these guys could be making maybe they end up getting him for less but um yeah I just kind of like to play a little higher when I’m trying to do these valuations but I the only way I guess I see these guys coming back like if if the heat don’t do anything then um they’re let’s say they can’t really do any trade they got to go back into the season with the same Ros hero back court that’s not that probably means for sure Caleb Martin is not coming back but they could probably still make it work with high Smith around those figures I gave but I think ideally you want to try to reshuffle the back court a little bit get that money distributed where either you trade for that front Court upgrade or you just save some money by trading one of those guys and then you have more flexibility to bring back Caleb at the very worst so let’s talk about trades Donovan Mitchell uh I I said that it’s going to cost hero hakz and Nico yovic Ethan kind of says the lines at at at Nico in terms of like where the negotiation uh Tactics come into play I was just looking at how to make the numbers work do you have more creative ways to get Donovan Mitchell to Miami that I don’t know about I’m interested to to hear that that um scenario so I kind of agree with that uh the the line that you made there um again that’s just my opinion but like the one thing though like let’s talk about the math first because in my opinion the heater going to have very likely a high payroll like even if they are able to do this trade whatever payroll they have now it’s going to be in that similar level but whenever if you’re going to trade for Donovan Mitchell for example uh the heater G going to be hard C to the second apron no matter what the reason is they’re not trading Jimmy Butler they’re not trading bam out of Bio so that means you need to trade at least one of Tyler hero or um uh God I was just saying his name Terry Rosier ter yeah yeah and you got to add more salaries to um you got to add more salaries to uh aggregate you got to aggregate to like match Donovan Mitchell’s money because once you aggravate your hard caps a second apron but I don’t think they’re going to want to go past it anyway so it’s okay but if they take back more money than they’re sending out then they’re hard cap to the first apron and you know I’m sure the heat obviously like any other team they don’t want to spend so much money if they can keep not being the tax that much even be below the SEC the first apron they do it but I do think if you’re going to have three max players this upcoming season you probably need that $1 million in space between both aprons to out the back end of the roster uh not total crap so the to make it work you can do Tyler hero hakz and Josh Richardson you know just one of those minimum guys that gets but I put Josh Richardson specifically I think I’m guessing he’s gonna opt in so the money just works for given out just more than Mitchell’s salary so now you can stay above the first apron and so that’s number one and then but then like you’re kind of the rest of the now you’re just trying to budget it out within the second apron so you’re just trying you know you’re just getting minimum guys for the most part you have some room you can use the tax pyramid level May or instead if you if if uh Heywood heith his Market is not that high maybe you could bring him back instead the alternative is you’re able to send out both her two of basically hero Rosier or Duncan Robinson now you’re really not just now you’re not just getting the third max player but you’re like completely reshuffling the the books because that’s just a lot of money between those three guys now you can either maybe expand the deal try to bring in an additional front Court player like I mentioned that’s not too cheap just just an example I’m not saying you guys have to agree with it but like Kyle kosma just because he’s making the low 20s that’s someone you could really that would really fit uh the the payroll structure but um instead they could alternatively maybe not take and take anyone else back not take back that much more money and now you could potentially instead resign Caleb Martin and Haywood heith and maybe do a small midle signing the stuff I looked into today where you can definitely um yeah so it is possible and somewhat sustainable at least for these next two years after that uh you know it’s kind of yearby your thing yeah well Jimmy’s window is not that long so if you’re deciding to to work with Jimmy’s window and again if that’s the case you probably should extend this offseason so that there the window is at least two years uh instead of one uh but you know that that’s kind of what you’re dealing with all right when we come back uh we’ll get into a little bit more of this by the way I I’m I’m uh since you got two guys here uh that apparently can grow facial hair and I can’t um I will say that I’m more inclined to keep hwz now that he has actually shaved his today even though he looks ridiculous uh W wi without it I don’t know if anybody saw him uh today on social media but Hae just grow it back honestly just just screw it back um and if in Cleveland he’s going to need it because he’s gonna have to stay a little bit warmer all right but we will get to our great sponsor here uh speaking of warm you turn the tub all the way up uh get get as hot as possible and go to shop tub culture.com or again you can get this for a significant other that’s what we recommend uh the most here go to shopup culture.com use the code 5 FIV for your handcrafted bath and body care you will get again $10 uh $10 10 excuse me 10% off your orders of 20 or more free shipping is included there they’ve got I not I don’t even know if I can say this without a copyright they’ve got an eras collection on there now okay for those of 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too go to prize.com make sure you use the code five and get that initial deposit matched up to $100 all right so um Donovan Mitchell let’s say he’s not traded because it seems to be that the momentum is moving in the direction of keeping him I’m seeing all of these you know Garland rumors and everything else and we know the clutch has expressed behind the scenes a desire to get Garland out of there if Mitchell’s there um kind of give him his own back hord again because he hasn’t had that since Mitchell’s been there give me based on what you’re looking at from a cap tax well it’s mostly tax but cap tax situation apron situation like what would be a good Target for the Heat this off season I provided again you see that you know Greg and I have gotten into the whole episode on this that like having hero and Rosier both making in the in you know rosier’s case 24 Tyler High 20 like having your back court that you don’t even know if it’s going to work making 52 53 million between them is not ideal so what would be your kind if you got Jimmy and you got bam coming back what would you do I think no matter what they do whether it’s rolling running back most of this roster or successfully getting a major upgrade like Donovan Mitchell or night not even that level but just someone I think they are still looking most likely paying a pretty decent luxury tax bill and just trying to stay below the second apron cuz even if hypothetically uh Caleb hardtin were topped in they’re still which is a cheap amount they’re still looking at uh being right pretty like close to Second apron or alternatively they resign Haywood heis Smith to something uh Fair like no matter what it’s they’re going to be pretty well above the first but kind of hovering below the second um and in all those situations they’re looking at like a $30 million tax bill which nowadays nothing it’s nothing like it it’s pretty modest nowadays given how these you know how much higher it could be the deeper you are once you get above the second apron or if you’re in the repeater tax um now at the same time let’s say they do mostly run it back and they aren’t quite playing at the level they want to be okay then you could scale back a little bit maybe you can do some type of cost cutting trade I mean that’s technically what they did last year Kyle Lowry trade they’re making an upgrade to Terry Rosier but they also saved a decent am amount of money so maybe there are there is that type of trade they could potentially do in the future if they aren’t able to do something bigger in the off season and just looking big picture NBA wide do you think that this current CBA is designed to kind of get the three super the big threes out of the league and create parody like do you see there being in an environment where they’re no longer are three big time Max salaries on rosters eventually that they will disperse enough where there’s just two stars per team like do you see that that’s where this is heading or do you think we always are gonna have The Big Spenders that um end up ponying up enough loot to bring in three guys of that you know magnitude as they talk about eventually with the new TV rights deal guys making 70 80 even eventually a hundred million dollars could they could make per year uh do you think that that’s going to basically eliminate the three Superstar builds so two things one uh I mentioned earlier it also depends on what type of maxer is the difference between what the heat would be potentially doing this year if they had Jimmy bam and Donovan Mitchell versus what the suns are doing the Suns have three players earning the highest Max these guys are making $150 million combin which is like which is more than the salary cap uh that’s uh unsustainable long term the heat if they got Mitchell and Bam this year both would be making the 25% Max while Jimmy’s making 35 that’s why they can still have like a relatively deep roster while still paying like a Duncan Robinson maybe bringing back Caleb Martin at a higher amount and still having like a pretty solid roster all around so uh so that’s like the number one I guess like what is a three like how you define the three max but then the other thing is um it just more so the new CP I think shortens the windows because you can have I’m sure there still will be opportunities where a team like the heat do this type of trade or the Lakers or whoever where they have three max guys three stars but now that they added the second apron where uh you get these draft pick penalties in the future like the Frozen draft pick and then if you’re in it again your draft pick will fall to the end of the first round a lot of teams even the high Spenders wouldn’t want to deal with that that’s like that that just seems like a mess but then the other thing is they increased luxury tax payments on the higher brackets um meaning that if you are like at like 15 million is or so above the tax going starting next season they increasing it and then you happen to me in the repeater tax now that’s even higher they’re going to make it so untenable financially that you just have to scale back like I don’t care what the Suns say about how much they’re spending right now like if they run team back next year once they enter the repeater tax and these tax numbers are rates are about to go up even more there they could be looking at like half a billion dollar roster I’m I looked into it like that’s that’s not hyperbolic they could be better get out of the first they better win a game in the first round I guess right like gonna have yeah well I mean there is something to be said and trust me Yosi the Heat have noticed uh you know that most of the big spending teams did not Advance very far this time um I guess you know Boston is the one uh Denver uh you know was the other one I guess that was in the top eight salaries that was in the final eight they didn’t make it um you know Minnesota their cost their costs are going to go up going forward I mean all these teams eventually do but Indiana’s you know relatively cheap by NBA standards in terms of uh what their payroll is right now and Dallas is not spending crazy at the moment so uh you know and certainly the Heat have noticed that and they’re going to try I mean the second apron thing I understand like I I get that I I it’s not about the money because it’s not my money um it’s about it’s about the the punitive nature of it and the lack of flexibility that they would have so that’s kind of kind of where I’m at with it I I guess the overall just to give Heat fans something to go away with here and make sure everybody check out yosi’s work which is excellent um and uh and he may have something else for you guys uh to pair with this so be on the look out and and if so I will tweet that out I mean it seems to me and he fans are going to hate me for saying it that what Brady has said essentially our our colleague Brady Hawk has said it’s not running it back it’s running it back harder um May ultimately be the reality for this team because we’re kind of talking about okay what they can do to reshape the roster whether the hero Rosier with that kind of money plus Duncan’s money having those three guys tying up all that um when you’re dealing with the Jimmy and Bam situations and salaries that uh that really maybe even bringing the same team back is because we’re talking about possibly losing Martin and maybe heith that’s going to be a challenge actually but yet if if if heat if the heat did that if they brought back Martin and heith and did nothing else Heat fans will Riot okay so it’s like they’ll only be upset if Martin and heith leave right if they don’t do anything else if they and and and that that’s kind of where it’s at what is your um what is your most likely scenario for them I guess so what does your cryst ball say personally I don’t like when looking at the Don V Mitchell stuff and I did release a video on the Cavaliers about just what you big changes are coming there uh but I tend to agree that I think Donovan Mitchell will probably stay I think he’ll take a short-term deal just because one I like if you look at the heat the Lakers some of these more glamorous Market I don’t I truly don’t think they have enough to get uh Mitchell and then if you look at the Nets they have like all the picks they could offer they’ve got some pretty good players that the Cavs could use they could make an actual good offer maybe the best offer and you know Don Mitchell has interest in being in New York but then if you’re Donovan Mitchell is that really better uh than being than staying in Cleveland exactly I think he much I think he has a much better chance of competing winning a title in Cleveland over the next two years so uh as far as what the he can do if that’s off the table I guess most likely they just do a more uh just like something just I think they could still do something I I think they definitely need to split up the back hord like I like I really like the Terry Rosier acquisition but not if him and Rosier are both starting playing together and you mean him you mean him and hero basically yeah you don’t like it right no I just want to clarify but yes the the T the TNT back court you you’re not uh you’re not a fan of of that and look I I understand it like I I we thought they needed an upgraded point right Greg we both we agreed on that um we both like the Rosier move but even Pat kind of said well maybe Terry could come off the bench so it sounds like they’re not convinced about it and I get it it’s it’s not even the offense it’s just it’s just a small back court for the modern NBA where you’re switching everything it’s just I I don’t it it’s it’s a tough sell I me one of them has to be a six-man and then the question is if with Tyler there’s the Optics of that and and Terry may do it but then again you’re spending $52 million and one of the two guys is not starting um you know guess yeah if I’m the he I would definitely try to trade one of them try to get just an actual answer at the four uh but I don’t know for for whatever reason the heat just it doesn’t seem like those deals really they they really like go hard after them they’ve been trying to get Dame and just more of back hord upgrades I’m guessing they most likely just for the most part stay the course uh Martin goes they bring back kaisi that’s something and then they just find someone and it’s going to be like the most disappointing off season then they’ll just find two guys out of nowhere and they’re amazing and maybe they’re whoever they draft in the number 15 is going to end up being like like a huge it’s going to work out I don’t know how but it’s GNA work out in the end just run it back harder Greg is that is that the slogan how are we feeling about about 82 games have run it back but run it back harder don’t let’s not even go there please come on we need at least some lateral moves some shakeups to the roster that add some size I think that there’s some things that they can do and get creative I’m I’m not standing for run it back harder we’re going to do t-shirts we haven’t done t-shirts in a long time but I I I do think run it back hard back uh you know with yeah I like that t-shirt the brother Greg’s put up there uh the uh by Brady Hawk 305 well Yosi we appreciate it uh we ran it back second episode with you we ran it back harder so hopefully people enjoy the episode got a little bit of a better sense of it make sure that you follow his work um and hopefully Donovan doesn’t sign that extension anytime soon because I got a milk about two more months out of that uh before we get to all of our draft coverage in June all right thanks for our sponsor shoptop culture.com use the code five priz picks.com use the code 5 c-arm and staffing.com you work in a medical office reach out to our good friends Nelson and his team have a good one everybody thank you for listening to the five on the floor on the fireing sports network after all someone needs to listen to my dad

What do the Miami Heat’s books look like entering the 2024 offseason, and what does it mean for their pursuit of Donovan Mitchell (if he doesn’t extend with Cleveland), the re-signing of Caleb Martin, other moves and more? Ethan Skolnick and Greg Sylvander are joined by NBA cap and tax expert @YossiGozlan.

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