2024 NBA Western Conference Finals Picks & Predictions | Timberwolves vs Mavericks Game 4 Best Bets

2024 NBA Western Conference Finals Picks & Predictions | Timberwolves vs Mavericks Game 4 Best Bets

aim for the Western Conference Finals Timberwolves Mavericks tonight on Tuesday TNT 8:30 Eastern I’m going to break down the side total player props let you know to play this game and make some money that’s coming up free for you in just a moment hi this is Steve Merl wagertalk.com right back here on wager talk TV and look this series is over technically it’s not over over it’s only game four but it’s over because no team in over 150 plus occurrences have ever overcome an 03 deficit to win an NBA best of seven series the Timberwolves know that the Mavericks know that the question becomes how does it affect this game and I think it’s a negative for Minnesota the game Minnesota had to get was game three they were in a pretty good situational spot and they still came up flat finally got a three-point lead late in the game for the first time in the fourth quarter and then could not score down the stretch Dallas scored 14 of the final 17 points so it’s hard to imagine that Minnesota’s going to have all of a sudden flip a switch and come out strong here in game four now the Timberwolves were down 03 last year to the Denver Nuggets and they won game four outright as a dog but keep in mind that was at home this was now on the road Minnesota was the higher seed they were expected to be the better team in this series and Dallas is won the first three games had my colleague at wagertalk.com Ralph Michaels and Jeff Michaels run these numbers for me on Monday they actually had a cookout on Memorial Day hey one more chance to wave the flag post Memorial Day Tuesday here but I wanted to keep that flag waving but they still ran the numbers for me and it’s a small sample as I thought but if you look at game four home teams not overall but home teams are up three 0 it’s only happened 11 times over the last 22 years going back to 2002 home teams such as Dallas that are up three games to none are s- four straight up including six and2 straight up the last eight occurrences but it’s 0 and2 the last two times Ralph pointed out but let’s keep in mind something last year the Boston Celtics the highly favored Celtics were down 03 at Miami the Celtics are one of those teams that won game four on the road despite being down 03 and obviously Dallas um actually might was a one-point favorite I believe in that game but they were a big dog in the series so you can kind of scratch that one cuz that wasn’t a true situation where maybe the weaker team was down Boston was a superior team in fact they went on to win the next three almost became the first team in history to overcome an 03 deficit they lost game seven at home of course last year in the Eastern Conference Finals if you throw that one out though it’s been pretty strong playing these home teams six and one the last seven otherwise and seven and three the other 10 going all the way back to 2002 so I do think Dallas wins this game and oh by the way the point spread margin’s been just as good 7-4 straight up 7-4 against the spread including 6 and2 ATS the last eight and that includes Boston covering last year and winning otherwise it’s six and one straight up in ATS the other seven occurrences recently where a home team is up 3 0 and a best of seven over unders we normally see these games go over as well in fact the over under is 82 and one eight of the 11 and gone over only two have gone under with one push but once again one and two to the under the last three but then again that Boston Miami game last year a year ago in the Eastern Conference Finals did stay under otherwise only one of the other 10 times have we ever seen an under in a situation since 2002 in which the home team is up 3 0 so the over is a 3-0 perfect 3 and0 so far in this series we had strong over under Best Bets on the over in both games one and two client Best Bets I mentioned it also here in the video for free for you on Sunday and it’s a perfect 3 and 0 so I would not disagree one of the reasons the over Works in this situation is because both teams know the series is over so you get a little bit less of that defensive intensity that you normally get in the NBA playoffs and I think that could be the case here I also think Minnesota could go more small ball we saw them sit Rudy goar in the fourth quarter of game three uh NS Reed could play a bigger role in this game connley is still banged up I expect him to play though Anthony Edwards Carl Anthony towns have both been subpar Anthony towns shooting has been horrific actually really bad he’s due to have a better game so a lot of reasons to like the over my concern turn though they have bumped this line finally it was 207 the last few games now it’s 210 sharper books are already 210 and a half on my rescore model for the two games were’re 217 2177 but the last game was only 200 the pace was much slower in game three the other night uh the teams just finally shot better from the field in fact they shot extremely well 56 and 50% Minnesota had shot just 43 and 41 the first two games they finally hit 51% in the last game but they were not good from three-point range just 30% in fact Dallas was plus 15 points from three-point range and plus 14 points from the free throw line they were plus 29 Points uh Minnesota meanwhile was plus 20 from down low in two-point range that’s another reason why I think they want to play faster push the pace and try to score down low um my rescore model by the way using a playoff percentage which is a lower percentage more defensive intensity and also the fact that Dallas has been a better defensive team since The Gafford and PJ Washington trades back in February uh those res scores have come out to around 202 and just 186 in the last game so I’m a little concerned the line value is not there anymore but the situational setup does favor the over once again and once again it is a perfect 3 and0 so far in this best of seven series and Dallas minus 2 would be the play in my opinion I just don’t think Minnesota has any left I lean Tor is game three I mentioned it here in the video um and I thought that was the spot they had to get and the fact they came up short I just don’t see them coming out here down 03 and by the way I don’t think it’s a coincidence in Minnesota struggling in this series because they pulled the big upset against Denver winning seven games in that having to go seven games winning both six and seven with their backs against the wall overcoming a 20po deficit on the road in the thin air and altitude I just think they’re worn down Edwards has looked tired in this series he has been subprime as I mentioned performance-wise and in hindsight I think the Timberwolves are worn out more in that Denver series than we all realized and I just don’t see them putting up a fight and once again home teams just don’t let up when they’re up 3 0 and now it’s 82 and one to the over it’s seven and four straight up and against the spread and if you throw out last year’s Boston win it’s 73 and one ATS and 81 and one over under all the way back to 2002 once again thanks to Ralph Michaels and his son Jeff Michaels for pulling those numbers up for me yesterday on Memorial Day and sending them over uh you can find them on wagertalk.com just like you can find myself Steve Merill and we all post free plays every day check out my page for free plays each and every day in baseball having a great baseball season free hitting over 60% this month and you get a free play each and every day on my page it’s a great way to build your bank roll and get ready for the football season another way to great way to build your bank roll is of course to get a direct subscription my daily Best Bets include my Tuesday night Best Bets are on my page right now but you can also save big with the direct subscription single plays are 25 the way you make money is to save money at the same time and if you get an all year all access pass you get every sport I release every day for less than $3 a day that works out to just about a dollar a play for every college and pro football play coming up this season every college and pro basketball play it’s going to get you all the way through the start of the to the NBA finals next year you’re getting the entire NBA regular season college basketball season tournament and basically all the NBA playoffs next year you’re getting the rest of this baseball season into a few months next year it’s a full 365 day all access and you get an instant $800 discount by using promo code SM 365 once again go to my page All Sport All Access the onee Big Daddy and make sure you use promo code SM 365 at checkout for over an $800 instant discount works up to just $3 a day just about a dollar a play for every sport every best bet for the next full year Steve Marell wagertalk.com get there quicker with shortcut WTB slsm all right let’s look at some player props for you here in game four once again uh game four is where the home teams are Up 3 do tend to be a little higher scoring than average so I think we want to kind of default towards the over with some of these player props and as I mentioned I look for Minnesota to play more small ball I look for them to play a little bit faster um I think that benefits Edwards he had 26 points in game three uh he’s always priced to Perfection but he was 11 for 24 shooting did not make a three-pointer still got to 26 points 21 in the last game he’s priced once again at about 27 for the over under uh it would be either over or pass for me with Edwards Carl Anthony towns is the guy I want to talk about though 14 points as I mentioned earlier he was only 5 for 18 shooting he was 0 for8 from three-point range can’t be much worse than that landed on just 14 points his over under is now 18 and 1 half to 19 he’s had 16 or less in each game in this series I like his over here I think they’re going to play faster I think they play looser I think Dallas may be a little bit more complacent on defense um and over 18 and a half for Carl Anthony towns is worth a look in my opinion um other guys we’ll look at here in this series let’s slip over to goar by the way 9 points 28 minutes as I mentioned they set him in the fourth quarter I think he could be a bit more limited so go bear props under could be worth a look especially if they go small ball and that would benefit Nas Reed who actually played more minutes than goar he got 29 minutes goar got only 28 and a half and Nas Reed had more points as well so Nas Reed over goar under somewhat correlated if uh if they play small ball and play Nas Reed more than gobear I think both of those props could work as well Dallas Mavericks without Lively the second I meant to mention that earlier they’re going to be without they’re starting center Derrik Lively the second and next strain he left the game and did not return He is listed as doubtful to out I do not expect him to play here in game four uh Lively played um once again only about a half the game and only had nine minutes there he went out in the early second I believe it was in the third quarter when he went out he only had six points he was three for three shooting uh but Gafford stepped up and played a playoff high 29 minutes with him out only scored four five points and only took four shot attempts so I was going to say Gafford props over because he’s playing more minutes the problem is he didn’t really do much offensively he had only five points after having 10 and 16 in the first two games he’s priced at about 11 and a half I would still lean Gafford over 11 and a half just because I think he’s going to get more minutes and more shots but he really was a defensive presence and the guy that picked up the slack once again was PJ Washington shooting five for 10 he played 40 minutes uh Washington though really is getting pricey now he only had 16 points he’s about 12 a half from what I’ve seen recently which is a little bit lower than he’s been in some recent games games so PJ Washington points over Gafford over could be worth a look as well but once again he didn’t get a lot of shot attempts which concerns me but I do expect him to play more and Washington probably to play more too they’re both power forwards without a big man Lively in there Washington and Gafford should benefit with more minutes um so it’ be over or pass for both Gafford and Washington props in my opinion um Irving had a fantastic game once again both he and donic each had 33 points they both took exactly 20 shot attempts they took 40 of the Maverick’s 68 shot shot attempts that’s pretty insane they took 2/3 of all their shot attempts that’s another reason Gafford and Washington didn’t score as much Irving and donic 40 of the 68 shot attempts and of course they got to the line a lot as well 18 free throw attempts and they each had 33 points they scored 66 combined uh not looking to fade either one of them as we don’t fade Superstars and they both played excellent but I also not sure there’s a lot of value left with either one of those lines as I think they’re kind of priced to Perfection once again maybe some backups get some more minutes for the Mavericks cuz Lively is out he only played 9 Minutes uh green Hardy got 11 but green did get 25 minutes but only took one shot attempt uh so Josh Green only one shot attempt in 25 minutes he’s priced at four and a half a little bit higher he’s been two and a half to three and a half in other games uh so Josh Green is priced higher should get more minutes but once again he only made he only took one shot in the entire game in 25 minutes so that is a concern once got like Carl Anthony Towns over Nas Reed over goar under and uh as far as Dallas Gafford and Washington should play more minutes you can play them both over at worse you probably split out there all right that’s a deep dive for game four if we have a game five I’ll be back for Thursday’s video here on the channel if not the NBA finals of course around the corner and we got have a 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Dallas get it done comment below let me know your plays tonight sides totals player props let’s learn and earn and win together here on wager talk TV and don’t forget if you want my official Best Bets for Tuesday night I put my baseball and basketball best up Best Bets up every day on my page at wagertalk.com it’s quite simple if I have a play my clients get it it’s emailed directly to them with detailed analysis the minute I release it every client gets it I have one set of selections and no matter which package you buy you get the same plays as everyone else just different durations there’s a one day a one week a one month or the best deal is the one year because you save and make money at the same time it works out to just $3 a day just about a dollar a play I know some of you are small bankroll you’re building your bankroll you can afford to pay a dollar per play because you make a lot more than that back it’s a great return on investment and you get an instant $800 discount right 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🏀 WagerTalk NBA handicapper Steve Merril runs through 2024 Western Conference Finals picks and predictions today for Mavericks vs Timberwolves Game 4! What will we see from a betting perspective in today’s action? Join Steve as he gives free NBA best bets for today for tonight’s Timberwolves vs Mavericks Game 4 matchup starting at 8:30PM ET!

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