Why Tanking in the NBA is a Poor Man’s Strategy
in the NBA the ultimate goal for any team whether it be in the immediate or distant future is to win an NBA championship you play the game to win nothing is sweeter for any team than to take home the Larry O’Brien Trophy and celebrate at the parade in front of your hometown fans but not every year a team is going to have a shot at the title in a given NBA season in fact there are a lot of teams who won’t even come close to sniffing the playoffs let alone winning a championship and because only one out of 30 teams can walk with the title it begs the question that for those teams who have no chance at winning it teams that aren’t legitimate contenders what do they do how do they get better how do they position themselves to truly have a shot at reaching the ultimate goal and hang a banner in the rafters well while the NBA will do anything it can to sweep this issue under the rug and Implement new rules to prevent teams from intentionally doing this tanking where a team tries to lose as many games as possible sometimes for multiple Seasons to land a top pick in the lottery has become a strategy for teams to get themselves out of being in the bottom of the standings and eventually becoming true title contenders the philosophy around the league is don’t be stuck in the middle don’t find yourself in a position where you’re not good enough to contend but not bad enough to increase your chances of Landing a potential future franchise player the strategy is you’re really good and fighting to win a title or you’re really bad by the hope of building a team to one day get you to a title anything in between is known as basketball Purgatory but has tanking in the NBA ever really worked has being in a Perpetual state of losing for numerous Seasons actually proved to be successful for any team in the NBA Well what we’ll explore in this video as always if you’re new to the channel and you like this type of content it would mean a great deal to me if you subscribe to help the channel grow and in return I’ll be providing more NBA content like this now in the early 1980s the NBA was running into a problem where teams who had no hopes of reaching the NBA finals were doing whatever they could to finish with the worst record in the NBA to secure the number one pick in the draft and have a chance to add a generational Talent to their roster losing to get that top pick was more beneficial than trying to win regular season games when they had no chance at winning a title and so in 1985 the NBA implemented its first iteration of the NBA draft lottery to try and limit teams that employ tanking strategies in order to land a high draft pick prior to the draft lottery the two teams with the worst record in each conference would coin flip for the number one pick with loser getting the number two pick and the rest of the picks would fall in line with a team’s given standings but with the draft lottery getting the number one pick was no longer guaranteed in fact you could finish the season going 0 and 82 and not get a top five pick under the new draft lottery rules the rules initially back in 1985 enabled every non-playoff team to have an equal chance at getting the number one pick the NBA has of course changed the rules in odds of the draft lottery over the years but more recently the NBA has flattened the odds of non-playoff teams and instead of the lottery drawing being for the top three picks it has since changed to the top four with the bottom three teams all having equal odds of Landing the number one select ction but without getting into all the nitty-gritty numbers of the draft lottery system the point is tanking losing as many games as possible is not a guarantee to land you the number one pick higher odds than some of the non-playoff teams who finish 9th or 10th in their respective conferences but it’s never a sure thing in fact the three worst teams in the NBA only have a 14% chance of getting a number one pick but let’s put the draft lottery aside for a minute because one can still argue that it’s better to have the highest odds in your favor to land a generational Talent than to be a team on the fr of just barely making the playoffs and while that is true let’s take a look back and see if this tanking strategy has ever worked in the past let’s talk about the five most recent NBA champions the Nuggets Warriors bucks Lakers and the Raptors none of those teams had a top five pick on their roster that they drafted to help them win the championship sure the Warriors had wisan who they selected number two in 2020 but he didn’t play a single minute for them in that season that they won a title the Lakers while they had three former number one overall picks in Lebron Anthony Davis and Dwight Howard both of those players were drafted by other teams and acquired via trade or free agency the Milwaukee Bucks Yannis they drafted 15th Chris Middleton another late pick Nika yic for the Denver Nuggets second round draft pick Jamal Murray was selected seventh Michael Porter Jr 14th taking the most recent Champs aside though how about going through instances of teams that were outright trying to be bad to get the highest picks possible to build through the draft and where it got them of course the most known example of tanking in recent years was the Philadelphia 76ers and the infamous trusting of the process from 2013 to 2017 where the Sixers won just 47 games over a span of three years and putting up one of the worst records in NBA history winning just 10 games in the 20156 season the Sixers were an atrocity to watch with players on their roster you had never heard of and yet the front office always maintained to its fans just trust the process because their terrible record year after year and ended up netting them two number three picks and two number one picks in the draft from 2014 to 2017 unfortunately for the Sixers though they really only hit on one of those picks Joel embiid who didn’t play in the first two seasons after drafting him the other picks being Jalil Okafor who was already out of the league by age 25 Marquel folz who they traded away after just two seasons and only played 33 games for the team and of course Ben Simmons who looked like the perfect compliment to Joel embiid and a superstar in the making until he went through his own injury battles and of course was ried to take a jump shot in an actual game where did the years of losing for the Sixers get them while a contending team in recent years even finishing with the best record in the East just three seasons ago the Sixers have never gotten past the second round of the playoffs similar instances of tanking have occurred with other teams how about the Detroit Pistons who finished with the worst record in the league the last two seasons and yet both times they fell out of the top four in the lottery and landed with the fifth pick the Pistons a team who haven’t won a playoff game not a series a single playoff game since 2008 a team that has only made the playoffs twice in the last 15 years getting swept in both appearances one of the worst winning percentages over the last decade in the NBA and what do they have to show for it we can also look to the Chicago Bulls post the90s Dynasty former GM Jerry Krauss tore the dynasty down after their sixth title 1998 tank for picks with the bulls being the worst team in the league year after year and where did it get the Bulls no championships just one Conference Finals appearance since Michael Jordan retired how about the Sacramento Kings a team that had been rebuilding for damn near a decade missed the playoffs for 16 straight Seasons always at the bottom of the Western Conference multiple High lottery picks multiple bust with said lottery picks and even the ones they did hit on they traded them away when you draft Thomas Robinson before Damen Lillard Marvin Bagley before Luca donic and Ben McLemore Nick stais Willie cystein and Maris Chris in the top 10 you probably should be trying something else other than tanking you could say the same thing for the new Knicks who for years were the laughing stock of the NBA bad year after year tanking to get Luca Zion all but to miss out on future generational talents and the only time they actually got better is when they improved their team through trades and free agency now I know most will say well what about the Oklahoma City Thunder or even the Boston Celtics Prime examples of teams who built through the draft by being bad for a few seasons to land High lottery picks the Thunder for example while bad for two seasons actually got unlucky and landed with these six pick in the 2021 draft which netted them Josh Giddy and then got lucky in the year where they were slightly better but moved up to the second pick which of course they got Chad homri the strategy had paid off well for the Thunder to amass an insane amount of draft capital in large part due to the Paul George trade but it’s not every day that you trade for a younger player who becomes a superstar and a top MVP candidate in Shay gilis Alexander what also makes the thunder so great are all those other pieces they hit on with Jaylen Williams Lou Dort the perfect complimentary players to round out their roster that wasn’t a result of tanking in fact most of their talent that they acquired was through trades or late lottery picks the Celtics while poised to win the title this year and yes they built through the draft with their two best players in Jaylen Brown and Jason Tatum but the one year the Celtics truly tanked in the 1314 season for the supposed Powerhouse draft of 2014 they fell back to sixth in that Lottery and selected Marcus Smart the Celtics were already back in the playoffs by 2015 and only were able to get those High lottery picks in 2017 and 2018 to get brown and Tatum by way of picks that were owed to them by the Nets and even then the Celtics had to make big roster adjustments to get to where they are today inquiring players like porzingis Derek white Drew holiday all through trades saying the Celtics built through the draft by way of tanking is a bit misleading and not factually correct and so I ask again has tanking in the NBA being bad for a number of Seasons truly worked for any team has it resulted in sustained long-term success does consistently Landing High lottery pick shown a proven track record for future winning the fact that some teams have developed some of their later draft picks and improved their team via trades and free agency should show that a recipe for success in the NBA in building a true Championship caliber team is comprised of a number of factors like roster construction fit Talent Development scouting Talent at all levels of the draft and of of course a combination of taking a step back to improve your lottery odds where it makes sense but using taking as your sole strategy and the hopes that you land a future franchise player has not only proven to be unsuccessful in recent NBA history but even worse it further perpetuates this culture of losing within your organization I said this on my BS channel the other day and I know a lot of people will disagree with it because tanking is become so commonplace in the NBA as a strategy for building a team but in my opinion it’s a lazy strategy tanking does not show a direction by a franchise it shows that these teams aren’t smart enough to think outside the box and truly figure out how to make their team better and address their weaknesses but instead are leaving it up to the fate of a few pingpong balls bouncing around in a hopper hoping their name gets called for the number one pick tearing their roster down intentionally trying to be bad for a number of seasons and hoping that they hit on a franchise player is not skill being demonstrated by a front office to me it’s a loser mentality especially when the data shows that tanking more often than not doesn’t translate to success and winning a championship I would love to hear what you guys think though let me know in the comments as always be sure to subscribe and I’ll see you in the next one
Debating whether tanking in the NBA is actually a viable strategy or doomed from the start (*editing credit: Alon Ginz)
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29 Comments
Detroit isn't tanking. They're just that bad.
Funny this got uploaded today. I was just thinking how my rockets low key tanked better than a lot of teams. It was bleak there in the middle of it for a bit but we’re looking good faster than most expected. 😎
What’s the use of tanking when you’re not guaranteed a high pick like the nfl
The idea of "NBA purgatory" is as annoying as it is popular. 2019 Raptors show it's easier to make a good team great than to make a bad team great
It works just fine aslong as you have excellent scouts and development systems.
Grabbing a superstar isnt enough, you also need to get the 2nd guy, need to get those roleplayers, need to get the rotation players.
Most orgs have had a superstar, but can they build a team?
LAC made the Thunder and the BKLYN Nets made the Celtics 😭
when you’re a small market team you don’t have much choice.. what are they gonna do? sign free agents? nobody wants to go to detroit. they have to draft well
I genuinely don't believe the Pistons were trying to tank this year. I think they were just bad. When you look at the losing streak, you could see them busting their tails to win.
The Pistons weren't tanking they're just a bad team with very little talent.
There is a reason why the teams they win chapionships do, they have a well run organization and there are only a few of these each decade
WOW TANKING DOESNT ALWAYS WORK? YOU HAVE TO DO OTHER THINGS? WOW NO WAI SO INSIGHTFULL
It’s a necessary method to put your franchise in a better position
The tanking teams just don’t know how to scout, if i was the pistons i would’ve traded down for two top 8-18 picks
76ers: Trust the Process!
The Process: Ben Simmons
I think a great way to dissuade tanking would be that the bottom 2 teams in each conference are barred from getting top 5 draft picks through the lottery this would make the bottom 3-4 teams in each conference compete with each other for the best lottery chances instead of what team can lose the best, this would also help keep good teams from scalping high draft picks from desperate bad teams via trade by adding more uncertainty into what the draft numbers will be.
It looks like 1 in 10 years where you really should tank.
spurs got wemby…..dallas got lively…..its worked for several teams lol this is goofy stuff
Tanking is good unless done correctly
I mean yes and no I would say tanking and even being unlucky in the lottery is better than being mid like the bulls are and have been doing, being mid in the nba results in more mid until those mid players decline and then you get diminishing returns in the long run. Beyond all though if your front office sucks you’re screwed regardless of getting lucky or being mid. If you’re mid with a good front office you can spin decent picks without needing to tank, if you tank and have a good front office even if you get unlucky you’re probably eventually be ok but it is more risky….. so in short terms ya you right you’ll have to build through the draft regardless but a #1 isn’t always a guarantee towards a good rebuild
I think there should be a rule that if you’ve not made the play in tournament for more than six consecutive seasons then you have to forfeit your 1st round pick as you have not shown yourself to be competent on building a team
Just depends on when/who you tank for.
If you don't have all-nba 1st/2nd player, Then tanking for a potentially generational talent makes sense.
Spurs will likely end up happy their choice to suck in 2022/23 season.
Wouldn't fault tankothon teams for Lebron, AD, Zion either.
But – to your point – poorly managed teams who don't scout will have trouble getting anywhere.
One example you didn't bring up.was Atlanta selecting Doncic at #3, only to give him away to Dallas. Huge franchise altering decision. However, perhaps they would have just wasted away Doncic's talent.
Long story short, there's argument to be made. Tanking isn't necessarily a bad strategy, It's just the "best option" for poorly managed teams. Especially smaller market ones, who will have trouble attracting big free agents.
The NBA hates the Pistons… they gave them mercy with #1 pick in 2021 but I can’t remember the last time they got a top 3 pick
Unless you’re San Antonio, Houston, OKC, Orlando, etc…
Piston's aren't tanking though, they're just incompetent. They've acquired players via trade and free agency and they all sucked (except for Fontecchio)
If you are going to tank, the owner should get his teenage son as a general manager, and spend the money on scouting and player development. Dont need to pay millions for a general manager during your tanking period
Tanking itself isn't the problem. It's the over reliance on the top pick saving the franchise. Tanking is supposed to be putting yourself in a position where you're not good enough to be competitive because you're choosing to spend your time developing projects instead while finding pieces that fit in the draft.
the pistons season was one of the most embarrassing things ive ever seen. losing 29 games straight is fuckin terrible
It honestly depends on who’s in the draft. Years like Wemby, Zion, Wiggins, AD, Oden/Durant, Lebron, and Yao in the last 20 years were reasonable “tank” seasons. Any chance you have to get a potential generational talent, you need to put the best percentages in your favor to acquire them. Now most of these generational talents lived up to the hype but very rarely such as Wiggins don’t. When the Bulls won the number 1 pick and took Rose they ended up winning the East, won MVP, and made them easily a top 2-3 in the East until he got hurt. There was no generational talent when the Sixers got the number 1 pick all those times. So it definitely depends on if there’s a generational talent. Bulls should’ve tanked for Wemby that year, I don’t think it’s even debatable. In addition when you draft a generational talent you also make your team a much more attractive destination for superstars
It is hard to use the Lakers as an example of not tanking when they have the ability to throw away all their draft picks in trades because free agnates walk out of small market teams leaving them with nothing to play in big markets.