Will the Mavs Pull Off the Massive Upset Against the Celtics? | The Bill Simmons Podcast

Will the Mavs Pull Off the Massive Upset Against the Celtics? | The Bill Simmons Podcast

Celtics minus 225 favorites to win the title Mavericks plus 188 on fand rosello are people kind of sleeping on what a massive upset it would be if Dallas actually won the championship here because I feel like in the last couple days because Luca and Kyrie look so good in in the last round then now a lot of people are like I’ll tell you you want the best player in the series and it just feels like Dallas is a massive Underdog but isn’t a massive Underdog what do you what do you see watching him from 40,000 feet away okay so you’re frustrated about this series correct I wouldn’t say frustrated because I don’t I don’t know if there’s 100% of a right answer I do have some thoughts that I’m going to get into but I wanted to see what’s Your Gut take on um how Dallas is being treated as we head into this well you started by saying it’d be a massive upset and I guess I don’t feel that way because of Luca so maybe I’m guilty of all the things that you’re being critical of right now because I mean I’m going to pick Boston seven and it it’s just not a hedge it’s respect for Luca knowing that he will figure out a way to dissect you know he’s penel in for 30 every one of these games I mean if you hold him to 24 it’s a miracle but he can undo pretty much anything you throw at him and in a series where there’s only five guys out there I think he has all this momentum that is preventing not only me but others from thinking it would be this huge upset because it feels disrespectful of who luuk has been I completely agree and yet I’m going to give you some historical stuff this is such a fascinating series to me because the gut check eye test watching basketball and also seeing really what’s hen happened with the Mavericks the last three and a half months and not knowing what’s going to happen with porzingis the series feels way closer right like even the Celtics being minus 225 feels a little high when you think about how well Dallas is playing and the poringa sex Factor but I’m going to give you some stuff first the Mavericks would be the third biggest finals Underdog upset to win since the merger being plus 188 right now the biggest one ever do you know who it is it’s the it’s the series that made her albop or alop uh Dallas Miami four 04 Pistons five to one underdogs in 2004 against the Lakers and they win so that’s by far the biggest Underdog that’s pulled off the second biggest one was the 2019 Raptors who were plus 230 and that series was pretty goofy because KD comes back and immediately gets hurt clay gets hurt by the end of it it’s like the you know the Warriors running on fumes but I I don’t remember the Raptors being uh underdogs like that but apparently they were so the Mavs would be number three if they won at plus 185 this is since 1976 and then it goes 2016 Cavs plus 180 21 bucks plus 165 08 Celtics were underdogs plus 160 against Kobe and the Lakers uh and then the 12 Heat and the 11 Mavs were both plus 155 so this would be the third just by gambling odds the third biggest upset since the merger that was surprising to me would you have guessed that no I wouldn’t have I mean the Toronto number would have been different if KD was totally healthy but there was all the speculation about what it was going to be considering they were looking for a threee at that point Point uh I thought the Dallas odds would have been lower the first time against the Heat and I think that’s interesting too the heat the heat second run through it well that was OKC yeah guess what OKC was OKC was favorite in that 2012 Heat series yeah the 06 heat were plus 130 underdogs and the uh 1995 Rockets were plus 130 and then the 1977 lasers were plus 140 so anyway the point is it’s really rare for a team that is this drastic of an underdog to win the finals so there’s that um next thing Dallas would be the second worst finals winner by record since the first bird Magic season so the worst one uh since 1980 is the 95 Rockets they were 47 and 35 Dallas is 50 and 32 Miami and 06 was 52 and 30 and then there’s three teams in the late 70s the sonics were 52 and 30 and 79 the 78 bullets were 44 and 38 and the Blazers were 49 and 33 so just from a regular season hey this is really unusual this would be the second most unusual only one team has lost more games in the last 44 years and won the finals than this Dallas te you remember that that irrelevant uh just before we go any further on them that that the regular season stuff for me on them is relevant they were 20 six and 23 after they had lost I think six to eight and that was the week of the trade deadline so the first time they got those guys in the lineup together was and Kyrie missed some time too Kyrie missed like 20 games there’s there’s a very easy explanation especially too when you think about 50 wins in the west this year that’s like 55 in a normal I’m just laying out I’m just laying out history and stats I I have no opinion but it is though the 95 Rockets they made the Drexler trade halfway through the season their team changed this 24 Dallas team they make The Gafford and the Washington trade their team changes and then uh the ‘ 06 Miami that was that had the coaching change right Van Gundy for Pat Riley at some point there in the season and then once you get in the 70s that that 70s were pretty weird those those would be the three most drastic ones so there’s that and then the other one that I thought was interesting d would be the fifth franchise since the merger to miss the playoffs and then win the finals the next year and what’s weird is that’s only happened four four times and two of them were recent the 22 Warriors and the 20 Lakers with the bubble and then the 08 Celtics they missed because the year before they tanked and then the 77 Blazers missed so that’s it so just like removing everything from it there’s three giant history red flags with the Mavericks thing and yet I still feel like mentally I’m where you are like you almost like throw it out it’s this different Mavs team that seems like it came together the last six weeks so ignore all the history stuff and concentrate on the six weeks I think is the right answer I don’t think there’s any other answer because it’s a different team and considering the teams that they’ve gone through here where granted once kawhai went down the Clippers are entirely different but you take on an OKC team we over six games the points were even and yeah a bounce here or a bounce there although I feel like Luca you have to give it a little bit more credit than just make or Miss League stuff because we just see how great the looks are for him how helpless you feel when he wants to make sure he’s going to get a good look for himself or if you completely sell out to stop him in some clutch moment in the game he’s going to make the right read and depends on whether or not the guy’s going to hit the shot like you just are going to get a good possession like he and joic are on the list of two where I go in a tight spot give me a good look I know those two guys are going to be the best two looks in the world and the fact that defensively there’s some real connectivity with this team that I watched the second game from from Boston and Dallas this morning I watched it again and there’s some stuff that you could say oh boy that might be scary for Dallas but then I think about the defensive effort that I saw against Minnesota and I go this isn’t even close it’s not even close to being the same team they’ only yeah they’d only been together less than three weeks there two other things from a history standpoint the Celtics I did that list for you last last week about the 20 losses or less finals teams um the there’s only one team that had 20 losses or less heading in the finals that actually lost the finals and that was the 2016 Warriors everybody else won 96 blls 97 Bulls 17 Warriors 86 Sals 87 Lakers keep going going going so this Celtics team would have to be the second one ever and there is of 15 examples so those teams are 14 and one in the finals so there’s that the other thing which I I think is getting lost just because of who they played but the Celtics have been dominant for eight months right they were 76 and 20 in the regular season they were first in offense second in defense they plus 11.7 net rating in the playoffs they were second in offense third in defense plus 10.8 they’ve been pretty consistent and I don’t know I feel like from an odd standpoint the odds should be higher and yet I understand why the odds are what they are because of the Luka Fear Factor and because this is the kind of League we’ve grown up with where it’s like you take the one guy who’s not afraid of a situation is the best guy in the court and that should overcome all this other stuff and yet all the historical evidence says yeah most of the time that’s not actually true most of the time that team loses and here are all the examples I think this is one of the harder series to figure out that we’ve had because the other thing we did mention homecourt Advantage just does not seem to matter anymore I don’t think it matters where these games are being played I don’t know if it really helps Boston um other than maybe to have a game seven in Boston but for the most part I don’t really feel like it’s going to matter the times are so late on the East Coast that part’s weird Boston’s been great on the road all season I think they can go into Dallas and win I just don’t think it matters and I think this is a really goofy Series so two things in all the different ways that I’ve looked at the series if you go over the last however many years you say Okay LeBron when he won it in the bubble he’s still in the conversation for best part in the league is that fair four years ago yeah no question okay all right so 21 Giannis 22 Steph little reminder season 23 joic maintains his hold on the Belt where you could have argued it or had it for a little while and then the kind of dot dot dot part of it here with Luca where we just know if you’re a Boston fan Tatum’s none of those guys so he’s none of those guys and I think this is a three-year Boston hangover where you could even add years if you wanted to and this is something I’ve talked about in the past where If Ever I do like a radio interview somewhere and they’ll they’ll say you what’s what’s up with Boston what’s up with Boston it’s like they had a schedule in 1718 okay and when they lost to Miami in 20 I didn’t really think it was that big of a deal 22 they showed something against Milwaukee that would be counter to the fact that people still think they’re soft and I’ll admit there’s moments where it’s not so much soft it’s just the late execution which we’re going to spend a lot of time talking about with the series because it’ll probably creep up and scare you if it happens in Game one where Boston just stagnant offensively lose at home and Lucas closing well you’re going to go up here we go again but I think it’s a three-year hangover of not trusting the offense against Golden State and it looking very apparent that there was a gap and then the Miami debacle of last year so if this Celtics season where they just added Drew and porzingis and this group hadn’t really gotten through the second round and they’re in this tier with all these other NBA teams and their rosters going what’s wrong with this guy what’s going it’s it’s different in that if it lived on its own I think the Celtics would be more public favorites at least the way they’d be talked about but it feels like the basketball Community is just so sick of them yeah and probably too disappointed by them that all that’s baked in to the leadup of this where again the Boston run just wasn’t that impressive and Luca took out three teams with 50 wins and yet the Boston you know they didn’t have porzingis this whole time which just got kicked to the curb with the run I know they bunch of stars missed on other team but I I do feel like it was a bigger deal to not have porzingis than people gave a credit for it was 23 a game it was the guy who just made them completely Unstoppable offensively it had a ripple effect on their bench there’s guys either playing more there’s some games where they just got zero from the bench because the the whole hierarchy got got knocked around if he plays and he’s healthy which I still haven’t been able to get a straight answer on they’re going to have five of the best seven guys in the series um I I guess one of the things that I’m really surprised by is and I get it because Luca is super fun to watch and Kyrie has been the best version of Kyrie we’ve seen in I don’t know since the 2017 finals and has has shown a lot of different things over three rounds I thought in OKC when they were guarding him a specific way and he wasn’t trying to force anything he was just playing defense getting people involved and then this last round where he was really good um so it feels like people are glass half full in those guys in a lot of ways and then on the Boston guys glass half empty like Luca is better than Tatum there’s no question but Tatum’s not like that far away from Luca from a statistical standpoint it’s not like the distance it was with Minnesota where if an ant’s not going to play that well it was like a Chasm right ant not playing well it was like 22 to 24 points a game Tatum and brown in the playoffs have been like 51 52 points a game which is right around the same of where Luca and Kyrie are you know but I I just think from itest it seems like those guys are so much so much more fun to watch play offense it doesn’t make sense to us that the stats are pretty similar and they are but it’s built I I think it’s because it builds in that Luke and Kyrie were at 50 points per game combined against Minnesota the best defense in the NBA and if you were just to look at this if they if Dallas hadn’t played Minnesota along their path to the NBA finals you go Boston’s got all these different guys that can switch it ton of stuff they’ve got some guys they can start with Jaylen Brown on him who’s big enough if Tatum has to get him for some spots as long as Drew doesn’t get pinned deep in the post you know he can at least hold up a little bit like there’s options right there’s options I think he’s going to walk Derrik white down when he gets him and then you’re like okay but the other team had ant they had Jaden they had Alexander Walker and then they’d be filtered into these other big guys back there and it didn’t matter like it went to another level and that’s the Boston side that scares you so on the Minnesota piece because I think that’s part of what we need to do to unpack this Dallas Boston match up the big question for me is what happened in Minnesota so the Minnesota piece of this we we haven’t talked about that series since it ended and I can’t can’t decide what happened because you could tell me there was some rock paper scissors stuff going on with Denver and Minnesota and Dallas right Minnesota built to beat Denver Dallas for whatever reason matched up perfectly against Minnesota and maybe if Denver played Dallas maybe that would have been a great match up for them I don’t know but watching it and I was just like man I I couldn’t tell whether it was like strategy mistakes that they were doing or what it was because in the previous round OKC put jayen Williams a lot on Kyrie and then they followed that up with Wallace and they really I don’t say they took Kyrie out of the series but they really gave him issues I mean he averaged like 16 points a game in that series and then Minnesota it seems like they couldn’t decide what the ray Kyrie strategy was and all of them turned out to be the wrong strategy right so defensively it was like they just never figured it out and then Luca just gained confidence as the series went along and just torched them and then on the other side they couldn’t figure out who to attack and exploit on the Dallas on the Dallas side and every time they tried to attack Luca it got weird it’s like we’ll go to go when he’s gone goar we’ll we’ll post up goar and it’s like all right if you’re gonna start doing that you’re probably in trouble but it was like they could just never solve it so did Minnesota run out of gas or did Dallas go up a level or both I don’t think it’s running out of gas I mean this team’s too young to sit there and say they ran out of gas even though ant was like UFC see fifth round exhausted at the end of game one and yes I think he he might have just been so hyped he might have just been so hyped and he was bringing the ball up to help Conley he’s guarding Kyrie he’s chasing around and then he’s task with being the number one option the entire on offense but it was so when people are going to say like oh what do you mean they didn’t run out of gas like look at him look how tired the guys were I think that was a specific game thing for an he might have just been so hyped up that he he burned himself out a little bit so the thing I keep coming back to when I try to figure out who I was going to pick is that it’s two versus one all right and two versus one meaning Minnesota had one guy they cared about on offense and if you go back through all those cat games before he finally got hot in game four and he sucked again in game five those were a lot of good looks the worst shot decisions Cat made was when he decided to drive on lively and I don’t know that he got Lively One Time by the way maybe he got some free throws in game five but it only worked once Lively was out of the game in game four yeah and when I look at Oklahoma City Shay has that incredible game four where he goes 10 of 14 for mid-range shots for the most makes in the mid-range in five years since Chris Paul in a playoff game you’re like that’s how you had to win that game yeah you had to do that and then you’re watching Jaylen Williams have these long stretches where as a young guy first taste of it didn’t really look comfortable offensively and then if you look at the Clippers part of it you get the coin toss Stars the coin toss Brothers in Harden and PG you you just come up with that yeah you just like you have no idea n you have no idea there’s two options one’s good one’s bad but you know within the first six minutes of the game it’s like oh up Tails right with Harden I can usually tell be like uh oh we’re doing a lot of Entry passes uh so when I land on Boston in seven games I do believe this will be the first first time where it goes wait we have to defend we have to worry about more than one guy right which they only really had in one Clipper game when it was Paul George and Harden were going together because I think that only happened once in that series certainly OKC never happened the floater game I mean hard hit all of those floaters yeah at the end of that one game where Dallas stay back the entire time and was just letting but you’re also expecting like is Harden gonna make every single one of these floaters and he does because he’s obviously really talented but from all the angles that I look at this the one that makes me feel best about the Boston side of it is this is the first time in a couple Series where that number two guy is going to feel like a better bet to show up than what you had with OKC and certainly Minnesota well what if they get a healthy porzingis is the other piece too because then they’ll have a third guy who is better like I I still think there’s this scenario where he comes in and he’s just really good and they’ve been kind of putting him on Ace and keeping you know keeping the Intrigue low on but fine I don’t know um back to Minnesota for one second towns was eight for 33 from three in the series that was higher than I thought and all those shots felt like they were open I I don’t really feel like any of them were contested he finished with eight threes and 12 fouls uh I went through them all bill I went through every one of his shot attempts through the first three games and I went and expected way more decisions that I didn’t like and it was one of those deals where when you’re only like really focused on that I got done like I i’ have really easy thing I like good decision bad decision and then kind of questionable maybe not on him shot clock or whatever there was an overwhelming number of them that were actually really good looks and the best shooting the self annointed best shooting big in the NBA didn’t make them he just GED and then you go to the previous series when their whole strategy was like let’s at least try to take out as much of Kyrie as we can we’ll let all these other guys beat us which I think is the right strategy when you play Dallas and then PJ goes 23 for 49 from three Jones Goes 10 for 27 so combined they were 33 for 76 um and then Josh Green was 10 for 27 so all their guys just started making it I guess like if you’re gonna make the case against Dallas their Ro guys I think out kick their coverage a little bit from a shooting standpoint and we know at the finals we know that there’s levels to this stuff as you go and you get to that final round and the intensity and the scrutiny and everything starts three hours for the game and even when you’re doing shoots there’s a bunch of people on the court already games start late there’s no flow to anything and it’s tough to rely on those guys you know it just is whereas at least the Celtics their guys went through it in 2022 with the exception of Drew who went through it in 21 on the bucks so really everybody they have out of their key six guys has been through all the Beats of a fourr round playoff series except for porzingis that’s it so I think that’s an advantage for them um the flip side is if you’re Luca who did you go against in the first three rounds that is the type of person who can at least make you work for all the points you need to get D okay um makes you work Jaylen and Tatum are at least going to make him work and I think that’s one of the things that interests me about this series from like just a basketball strategy standpoint how much are they going to try to put on those two guys because those are the type of guys I talked about this last week how Ben Simmons was like probably the most successful guy against Luca over the last six years even though it was a younger version of Luca but it’s 69ine athletic strong that’s who you want at least like make him work so he can’t like put people in his HIIT pocket and do all this stuff he does one of my questions I have is who is Jaylen gonna guard in this series because I think you can make a case he should guard Kyrie because that’s what OKC did where they put jayen Williams on him a lot and they put size and athleticism and length on him and just try to make him pass the ball around and we’ve seen jayen take all these other challenges it feels like a very jayen decision be like you’re gonna guard Kyrie in game one yeah [ __ ] yeah I’ve guarded all these different guys people don’t realize what a good twoa like I can see him getting fired up for it and them just trying to take out Kyrie and then just throwing a bunch of people at Luca so it would be Tatum it would be Drew you know little Al Horford like that like whatever they’ll just kind of rotate dudes but really try to take out Kyrie would be my guess Jaylen aside to Kyrie and Kyrie goes for 45 in game one and Jaylen says in the post game he’s just he’s just proud of him I hope I hope those guys are going to do that this round uh so when I looked at the matchups I’ll give them to you from the March 1 game Dallas started Lively PJ Josh Green started and then it was Kyrie and Luca and you know me I just I I seem to always love Josh Green minutes even when they’re a little chaotic yeah and Jaylen starts on Luca but it doesn’t really matter like you can be assigned to him immediately within that game a lot of the stuff that’s the same stuff that we saw against Minnesota those double drag screens Luca works it left to right he’s looking for like two different things off it then throws to the corner but I thought the most interesting part was that porzingis is on PJ Washington and Tatum was on lively so I don’t know if Lively now who has really answered the Bell about like if if the crazy thing about Lively if he’s only this it’s awesome right like 15 year career yeah so I think there’s probably a little bit more trust depending on how Luca is going to be looking for switches CU you know as soon as there was a double big lineup with Horford and porzingis he was looking for Horford’s guy to come up and set the screen but porzingis with all of his Rim protection numbers where he was the fifth best depending on how many attempts at The Rim in the NBA this season like really lofty numbers like up there with embiid up there with um Kesler up there with uh who else Rudy I think was fourth in that number when you look at where porzingis is statistically and how much you think that should help Boston having some kind of Rim protection there I I don’t know if Missoula will do the same thing where it’s like keep him on PJ but allowed to roam but if you get OKC PJ then you’re in major trouble where then against Minnesota it didn’t even matter then he only shot 25% from three so when I watch the game again this morning you know Drew has to make sure he doesn’t get stuck deep where Luca setting up off the ball because that’s a problem I think white just isn’t Stout enough for him it probably feels like Jaylen and Tatum but then it’ll really be dictated on what kind of switch what kind of switch Luca wants to run because I think he’d probably be more trusting and Lively at this stage than he was when they played him March well they’re gonna trap them a bunch too that was one of the many weird Minnesota pieces I didn’t get from that last series so they don’t double I thought it was an easy series for Dallas they just kind of did whatever they wanted to do whereas I thought OKC was a little more inventive with the way they defended and it just came down to the the side guys on Dallas just made a shitload of shots and they got some rebounds but I I felt like OKC was way more in the ballpark for how to play with that team and the quipper series was weird because Luca was hurt because I was looking at some of those games and trying to remember what I thought and Luca shot like I don’t know 24% from three or like he he just was limping around for most of the time um but I think the OKC was a better basically Boston has to do what OKC a lot of what they did in that last series but rebound and protect the rim a little bit better um one of the you’re right about Luca I I just want to add this though to think that through the grind Luca has looked better and better physically as the playoffs have gone on because there were the Clippers moments were like okay wait what’s going on here he shot 24% from three in that series even in the clinching game he was one of 10 he starts game one against OKC one for eight and then against them in game two I was actually like worried about him as we’ve already covered that part of it didn’t take a lot of free throws in that game at all but still finishes with 29 10 and 7 which basically like the the least you’d expect from him but he still had moments where physically it didn’t look right I don’t know if it was him working the officials maybe a little bit more because of D’s physicality but then you go into the Minnesota part of it like you’re saying oh they could have done this they could have done that I just think that’s the Brilliance of him he was 44% from three 43% from three in that game in that series because you think he got Jaden this is the Stout verse length thing with Luca that that I think is very easy to identify as great as Jaden is on the ball and he’s one of the best in the game he got on the backside of Luca every single high screen and then Luca is like okay you’re behind me going for a ride I’m not worried about you I’ve got a retreating big for the most part Minnesota wants to drop there I think sometimes they change it up a little bit but consistently it was him knowing he’s got Lively on some kind of role and then his vision to the corners is unmatched because he’s as massive as he is and he can just stop and make the decision and you’re battling four different decisions so I think it looks easy not because Minnesota’s screwed up because of how special he is I think they screwed up not putting McDaniels on Kyrie and just being like McDaniels take out Kyrie as much as you can so would you would you FOC up I think if they had to do it over again it’s unquestionably what they would have done is that because I think you bring up a good point in thinking about this do you think it might be like hey if Luca wants to switch and get in one-on one’s fine but Boston needs to make sure Kyrie is bottled up as much as possible that’s think I think they’re going to trap Luca so that they he doesn’t get going because like in the first quarter of the Minnesota game was a great example you could see what was unfolding as it was unfolding and everyone could see it except Minnesota who was like oh man I hope it doesn’t make another shot then he make another shot I was like oh damn he made another one it’s like you guys can control this a little bit let somebody else make a shot I don’t I think Boston is going to do everything they can to not let those Luca runs happen and and they have the perfect team to guard Kyrie they really do they even have a better version of what OKC had to at least you know you’re not gonna shut him down but they have guards to throw to them they have size to throw to them they have Rim protection if porzingis is going to play and you know I just think it’s a good matchup it’s funny though because I heard some some great stuff over the last couple days there were some some rolicking takes out there yeah it doesn’t seem like you mean great in the sense that most of us great give it give it sit Bill what you got get it off yourest takes for flying um jaylen’s really good I I just want to start there I think there is a Chasm between the people who talked about the Celtics versus the people who actually watched them like Jaylen in the playoffs for three rounds now he’s 25 points a game he’s shooting 54% and he’s shooting 37% from three and he’s plus 6.8 when he plays Kyrie’s averaging 23 a game and he’s shooting 49 % and I think if you ask the normal person be like who’s a better offensive player they’ be like Kyrie 100 times out of a 100 he’s way better than jayen it’s like is he jaylen’s for the last four years of the playoffs is averaging more points than he is and and he’s a better shooter than Kyrie is at least from field goal percentage it’s at least like arguable that he could put up similar production as Kyrie but I think we’ve hit this point based off that last series where people are like Luca and Kyrie man it’s Unstoppable there’s no two like this in the league and Tatum and brown have been pretty good for a long period of time and they just went 76 and 20 you know the entire season it’s I to me it accounts for something are they one of the three most disrespected 76 and 20 teams of all time do you agree with me that this is the best version of Jaylen we’ve ever had and it’s not close it’s not close this is the best version of him we’ve ever had my jayen stuff is well documented I’m probably not as high on him I need to me which doesn’t mean to say that I don’t understand how special he is I cannot believe some of the shot decision decisions and I can’t believe how often these brutal turnarounds where I’m like that’s what you’re coming up with and then it goes in and then it just goes in so that Indiana series over and over again now Grant’s like well they didn’t have halber well something porzingis but over and over again they were in these close games and he made huge shots he made a three in the corner to save G to save game one right game three and game four he made huge plays in both of those games he made big he made a big shot over Turner game three he had big plays on both ends in game four and it’s like well it was against the Pacers like at some point you got to give the guy some credit I thought he should have made lnba I made the case he didn’t make it but you know I think we’ve been pretty critical of him over the last few years I think he has absolutely worked his ass off to get stronger to be a better two-way player I think he’s competitive as [ __ ] [ __ ] the fact that he won that Conference Finals MVP I thought was great I thought I I don’t know whether he deserved it or Drew but I thought it was awesome for him Drew or Tatum I actually I would have gone I think I would have gone Drew second tat holiday oh come on I thought Drew was incredible in that series oh my gods I just thought he was great um I thought they were very close like if any of them had won I would have been fine with it but umw did not receive a vote it was 5’4 voting over I get it I thought Drew was awesome um I just think the stuff Jaylen has done and the chip that he has on his shoulder which is weird it’s the it’s one of the only times ever somebody’s got a massive contract and it actually turned out to be a good thing for their career usually it’s the other way right it’s like I got this massive contract oh my God I got fat oh I’m not working as hard oh now the fans have turned on me this is the opposite this guy got this contract he’s been trying to justify it ever since it’s been pretty cool he’s been so good he’s been so good and I think his defense has gotten better I think he’s the primary guy defensively but it could have more to do with Tatum having to run more of their offense where it’s kind of like the ant lesson we saw there where there’s so many superstars like wait who’s SGA guarding or who’s this guy guarding or how come like and you go well the downside is is but in the playoffs you don’t want to hear that kind of stuff and Jaylen is taking that stuff on I also thought that Jaylen had the easier defensive matchup instead of Tatum and that Tatum’s gravity was impacting stuff a little bit more that’s why I would have voted for him for Eastern Conference Finals MVP but Jay Jaylen had the three in game one he had the pass to White to close it out he had the block you know he just had some of these moments that I think the voters probably fell in love with there a little bit more so I have talked about him nonstop and I probably should look at him as somebody who’s delivered in so many of these playoff moments and the problem for him was it turned into this guy who couldn’t dribble with the off hand and the Miami series got so ugly and that lives in a way on the internet that’s like a tattoo it just stuck to you but this goes back to what we talked about earlier it’s the perception of things versus what the reality of it was right like if I told you jayen from 2020 to 24 75 playoff games versus Kyrie basically from 2019 to 2024 39 playoff games who do you think average more points I think 99 people out of 100 would say Kyrie and it’s Jaylen Jaylen averaged 23 points during that stretch Kyrie averaged 22 Jaylen shot 49% Kyrie shot 45 there’s this weird I and I think both of us are pretty aligned on this it’s been pretty awesome to watch Kyrie turn himself into a meaningful basketball player again I think over everything else we’re going to root for good basketball and more good basketball players is always going to win the day but now people have just tossed away the last seven years and a lot of the roller coaster ride stuff with him and all the Miss games and some pretty bad playoff performances and the way he’s played in the 2024 playoffs is the best he’s played in seven years well we’re aligned on this one and I fear that it’s just I’m we’re just stating facts nobody nobody wants to hear from you or I because they think it’s only about the Boston thing and I would remind everybody I think the 2019 is one of my least favorite teams that I’ve ever watched yeah and I could wait for it to be over so I do think it speaks to how we treat winning and that WI fixes everything about your perception and it’s if the rules I don’t know when this changed maybe it’s always been there but it’s more pronounced now but if you’re coming at people that were critical of Kyrie with this Hey where’s the apologies it’s like [ __ ] off miss me with all like what am I supposed to do like I’m psych playing basketball again to the level that he’s playing the stuff that he is capable of doing is as unique as we’ve ever seen for somebody that small but then it’s like no now you have to do all this other stuff like I don’t have to do any of that [ __ ] I don’t have to do any of it do I’m because I’m not going to he’s missed 205 games in the last seven years and was missed or her missed a postseason or was hurt in a postseason in four of those um I one of the revisionist history things with him is that he I mean it was really Dallas or Bust from him last year because I went back and read some of the stories like did I remember this wrong cuz I I remember like both of us were kind of stunned that they gave him the contract they gave cuz we didn’t know who they were competing against so I went back there was like a possible Lakers thing but he would had take the mid-level and then it was like he’s gonna do an interview with Phoenix but that was Bullit after Bradley Beal right but they leaked they leaked that whole story because Shams had it where it was right before the deadline for him to opt out of the Nets contract that it was like better TR me because I’m going to opt out and then I’m going go for the mid level and you’re like okay cool and the net call is Bluff and then guess what he doesn’t want to give up $30 million to play for the midd level with the Lakers so he was he was on this tear of all this stuff it was all there and it all deserved criticism it it just did the same way his playing right now deserves praise but we’re very odd in the way that we’ll cover things or events where it’s the present good is supposed to somehow erase all of this stuff that was real and was just I don’t know was kind of pain in the ass Dent Ro jarasi in late June went on Sports Center and he said the market for Kyrie Irving legitimate places that he would leave Dallas for that Mak sense that are available to him it’s extremely limited perhaps almost nil the full expectation is he returns in Dallas I don’t think the money will be as much of an issue is how many fully guaranteed years are there for Kyrie Irving that’s where we were in June and we were there because of the six years before it and then he turned his career around and it was a gamble that they had to take because there was really no other way for them to get a major free agent I posted on Twitter I posted my notes from this podcast you and I did at the end of March in 2023 remember they lost that terrible Charlotte game and they were 11th in the west there was like eight games left in the season we were like my God they might miss the playoffs with Luca and I had all my notes from that and the notes were like is Luca in one of the worst situations of any under 30 star and I had him and lamelo and ironically Edwards um stars best players that just missed the playoffs and it was like there’s a Barkley here there’s a Dwayne Wade here I had that whole list too like we did the whole podcast thinking there was no way this was going to turn around for Dallas and then in one of the great kind of basketball reconstructions that we’ve seen starting with them losing that pick and I’m getting that pick back doing the livey trade dumping the Berton contract and they did all these things and it’s it’s really impressive but it was also really Bleak in June and I and for some reason that’s been kicked out the window um but it also helps too when we’re talking about the second best player in the world at 25 years old going back to Dallas and some of the stuff they did I went back because I was like this Gafford Washton thing feels unusual to me I’m just going to go through all the seasons and try to figure out how unusual is this for a team to remake itself at the trade deadline and then it actually works right so you go back I went back to 08 the Lakers did that Pal Gasol deal which changed their season they make the finals they lose but they season yeah I mean it changed itang changed three years well but I mean it’s specifically they made the finals that year they didn’t win the Celtics made a very small PJ Brown trade that really helped them he made a couple big shots against the Cavs uh little tiny deal not on the PJ Washington sense but then it really wasn’t until 2015 when the Cavs did that they got Shumpert and mozgov and J.R Smith they traded some picks they didn’t win that year here in 16 they got Channing fry but you know he still played for them 17 they got corver 18 they got Clarkson Nance and Hood they didn’t win that year this was the biggest trade deadline move that I saw that actually resulted in a finals same year was marcusa in 2019 for Toronto where they traded for him they gave up real stuff for him he was super impactful for them they end up winning the finals uh 2020 Jay Crowder Miami 2022 Celtics Derek white that helped them I think make the finals and then Gafford Washington it’s really unusual to trade around the fringes like this and get guys who can you can get 40% of your team at crunch time basically um at the trade deadline they paid a lot I mean they definitely gave up a shitload for it and especially when you include the Grant Williams they to give up a pick just to sign Grant Williams right so you’re talking three first round picks get those guys but um it does make me wonder our team’s going to get frisker on the trade deadline going forward like could this be one of those things where people go hey that how look at what Dallas did they got those guys and maybe this is the new inefficiency Once rest of the decade because we have more parody at the top than I think we ever had I don’t think we have parody but I think we have Contender parody where if you have one of the best eight to 10 guys in the league you can at least whether you’re Phoenix whether you’re OKC whether you’re Philly whether you’re Mike whatever you feel like you’re kind of around sniffing around the title so I don’t know they like Miami made a play for roier I guess you could say that was the EOS version of a trade like that but do you feel like we’ll see more of those trades this is one of the worst trade deadlines we’ve ever done so there was that part where remember it was oh my God bonovich bonovich like look how smart the Knicks are and right and I mean I think we were at least good good enough to to give credit to Dallas when it happened because for whatever reason I’ve always really liked Gafford and then PJ’s motivation to come back home and how inspired he’s been throughout all this and then on top of that the PJ defensive assignments like turning Robert Hy I don’t remember us talking about that no not that part of it I don’t think anybody projected that so big sh PJ yeah right I think this is one of those things where you look at it and go well does that mean next February when we’re doing all the ahead stuff the week of the trade deadline will front offices actually go hey last year we would have been on the fence but look what Dallas did so let’s be more motivated to do it I don’t know I think with the second apron I think it’s possible I think the second apron may have well go ahead go ahead well I just think there’s more there’s more Talent just in general so there’s more of these guys when you think where the league was we we did this in a previous pod where the league was 20 years ago where the league was 10 years ago just from a top 75 top 100 guys in the league standpoint there’s more guys to get and then I think from a superstar standpoint we have more like really good guys than we did you know like all NBA guys even the guys in that like nine to 20 range they’re just really just deeper so you might feel like hey look at the league we’ve had a different Champion every year since 2018 you’re never that far away maybe it becomes more like football we’re teams like if we’re one of the eight teams maybe we have a chance I don’t know that I’d go that far maybe maybe but it still seems that it ends up being some guy holding up a trophy where like okay well that makes sense I mean if it’s donic you’re going to go okay second but everyone will make him the best player in the world and forget about joic if he’s holding the trophy up and then if Tatum’s holding it up people are gonna go you know is Tatum actually closer to one than he is five because that’ll be what’s on the shows the next day so that’s still always The Guiding rule of this league but the reason I was even hinting at second apron because I love thinking about the stuff that’s going to happen with the second apron we haven’t really fully experienced the cuts that are going to have to happen where I look at bad teams with cap space right like here’s a perfect example look at the Orlando Magic you try to figure out like okay what are they going to do with their cap space so in the past they just foury year a guy probably even pay him a little bit more to come to the magic and then worry about paying all their young guys down the road well now I don’t know that you can really do that if you want to keep fron Paulo and Suggs which you would want to keep and then you’re paying them big money like you may go well wait we actually can’t do the four-year thing in free agency with somebody who’s this this secondary maybe not even a secondary player right I think OKC’s in the same boat right yeah OKC I think that’s why they wanted to do the Hayward deal a little bit there where they were clearing up some of the money and then adding the cap space but they also probably felt like maybe Gordon you know offers them up some kind of shooting and playmaking that said about Gordon yeah he’s basically like I missed it yeah missed it you rarely see a GM be like yeah missed it didn’t work my bad yeah so I don’t know if he was PRI prioritizing what he thought he could be in a different environment outside of Charlotte or if he was prioritizing a little bit more flexibility anyway the whole point and the whole reason I’m making this is I tie it into will we see teams a little bit more active I wonder if there’ll be a surplus of some of these players that are margin players that become available prior to the trade deadline as owners start staring down the real uh restrictions that they could be facing by being a first or a second apron team as you look at some of these salaries like I was looking at some of the salary stuff this morning and how many teams are already projected over the second apron for 24 and 25 will we have more players available because you don’t feel like you can stockpile contracts the way you did in the past and it’s just a question it’s a theory but the math would make sense that maybe you’re going to see more gaffords available so it could be just a supply part of it more so than it is the motivation to match what Dallas just did counter that might only be one season and then the media deal kicks in and all the numbers go way up and then it’ll be like yeah not as afraid of the second apron I still don’t understand The Gafford piece PJ look I don’t think there’s any way to know PJ was gonna turn into Robert Hy and it was kudos to Dallas for figuring out identifying him but there was still no real evidence for it Gafford was playing really well for these shitty Washington teams for years and The House Always would talk about yeah if anyone gets gaffer that guy’s good good that guy would be like I just don’t know how the league missed that when they have these giant organizations with uh bunch of Scouts can we go to Tatum for a second didn’t we already do that no just quickly sorry tat 42 club that I have well because it it ties in Luca the 42 club that I love to do points rebounds and assists anytime it’s over 42 for a playoffs it’s usually a sign something’s happening so Luca is no surprise at 47 right so this go Luca yic Giannis kawhai Duncan Ivers Kobe LeBron like it’s all the people you would think is on this list there’s no cheapies by the way I love stuff like this I love numbers like this that just go oh there’s not one weird name there it’s all I think when I came up with it I think I got to 42 because I wanted to figure out a way to cut Carl Malone out of it and for some reason 42 worked perfectly and then that allowed me to get everybody in and not have them in um your guy Barkley’s there 93 44.5 but Tatum’s on the list this year Tatum’s at 43.3 and I I do think because Tatum it’s a weird thing man when when it’s not great you really feel it and I think people have been watching him for so long that they kind of do the glass half empty thing for him and there’s you know we talked about this on previe pods like there’s a little Tim Duncan itis with him too where it’s just like Luca’s got the swag and he’s talking [ __ ] and he goes on these heaters and it’s like this is [ __ ] cool man there’s nobody like Luca nobody’s ever going to be like oh man Tatum there’s nobody like Tatum but he’s just been really really really high level good and efficient for a few years here now he’s been one of the six best players in the league for three straight years um he’s the best two-way forward in the league I don’t count Giannis as a forward as you know I count him as a I think he’s a big man um and I do wonder if like everyone’s talking about this is gonna be Luca’s moment this is gonna be Luca’s moment there’s a flip side of this where it’s like maybe this could be Jason Tatum’s moment too there’s a lot of pedigree building up toward this specific series some of the matchups he has he’s gonna be the rebounding is going to be huge for him the playmaking um he’s gonna have to go head-to-head with Luka in a couple games and this could be the moment for him too one way or the other you know I know it’s more fun to talk about Luca but Tatum putting up like 2910 and eight in a finals and beating Dallas and winning the title I don’t I don’t feel like we’d have any more Tatum conversations after that the numbers will have to be there but well that’s going to happen it’s it’s we already hinted at it kind of joked about it with the whole Luca thing with the belt transfer of yeah the segment we did a week ago but if Tatum has numbers even close to what he’s just had throughout the East and they pulled this off there’s going to be a big media Tatum parade because there’s no other way to do the job 20 2710 and six and they win the title and he’s the best guy in the team then it’ll be a reconsideration then people will start talking about like him versus Kobe playoff points before age 27 like man Tatum might end up with a pretty amazing career here he’s gonna play 200 playoff games like there’s a whole bunch of checkpoints that would happen with that the Luca thing is more fun to talk about because you know you’re talking about this this guy has a chance now to be one of the 15 best players in the history of the league right but the visual thing that you mentioned is true because Tatum is like Duncan in the visual sense probably not even as Extreme as Duncan is like Kobe for as great as he is and the resume and it’s it’s all incredible he’s probably one of the best examples of it being so visually pleasing that even in those big moments like you edit out a lot of a lot of the bad stuff yeah you just he presented himself as someone that in the game like nothing was more important and he was the one that wanted it more than everybody else so he was he was good at that his big shots were awesome right it was just it was that much fun and Luca is is certainly different visually than than Kobe because we’re just talking about a massive Gap in athleticism but Lucas’s the way he carries himself and he kind of takes on this villain now as as the road guy and part of it’s because he’s just he’s just once I think he steps in those lines he cannot help himself but being the biggest [ __ ] and I think I mean that as a compliment like there’s a reason why he’s always getting into it with somebody and I’d certainly rather that than somebody that’s passive but between the two I don’t have any kind of debate where I’m like oh is Tatum actually better than like he’s just not there’s no way there’s no way that’s s what we’re talking about I think it’s more it’s way more fun to talk about Luca like I wrote down I was thinking about this during the Minnesota series we haven’t had like an old school [ __ ] talker Swagger guy like this in a long time like a guy who like actually seems like he likes being on the road sucking the soul out of the crowd but also the best player too is what you’re talking about well and he could back it up I’m saying like we’re we’re going back to like the bird magic era we’re going back to like Jordan this is the kind of [ __ ] that we grew up with were these guys so we’re like I don’t care if anyone likes me I’m gonna make shots and just start screaming at some guy sitting Courtside who’s like what’s happening I’m with my daughter why are you yelling at me um just going nuts he’s I I wrote down he a road quiet there are these certain guys that are like you know I I always think the great players are always like on the road is always the best way to analyze them because they really thrive on like [ __ ] shut all these people up was just like just silence and I’m just staring around I’m talking [ __ ] I’m just basically pulling everybody’s pants down and as much as I love yage like he you know yage is he he he is who he is right I don’t think he’s in there like I’m gonna [ __ ] shut up everybody he just he plays then he goes and and he leaves and he goes back to his country and rides horses Luca’s like Luca was like this this is one of the reasons I loved him so much heading the draft he was doing this as a 17year old and they were showing those games on NBA TV and it was unbelievable he was going in these in these opposing Arenas where like they were like kind of semi dangerous places and he’s talking [ __ ] to like 30 year olds and was like Co who is this guy and he’s carried it ever since so I I love thinking about Luca the younger guy because you’ve seen his dad who just is a legend apparently just a legend and there’s a Slovenian hockey player here that is a neighbor and I ran into to some of his family members copar and I ran to some of his family members and they were like we were at the beach and I was talking to his family and they all they wanted to talk about was Luca yeah the entire time and Luca this and Luca that his dad it was just he’s this mythical Fe you know just you think about some of these smaller countries where I think in the states we can just be like oh it’s another one of those guys from that part over there like do you realize how small some of these places are okay and now they have a guy who’s potentially you know going to do this it would make sense if Luca does this based on his background his upbringing and him checking boxes and being ahead of schedule as much as we fall in love with right like we fall in love with new and new is fun because we think it’s going to be something we’ve never seen it before that’s why the wom Yama stuff is so exciting but at the same time like Luca keeps going like oh oh wait you didn’t think I could do this yet you didn’t think I could do this yet and that’s the thing that scares the [ __ ] out if you’re on the Celtic side of it because you’re just going yeah this is this guy is supposed to win a championship because of all these things but when you talk about his demeanor I would love to know what he was like on the ride two game five because watching him like did he know where he’s just going to those guys being like hey first quarter I’m gonna I’m gonna take their [ __ ] Souls first quarter because some of the shots he was taking it it was apparent to me that he had decided I’m going to see what I can do here tonight and yeah granted he’s probably feeling a certain way feels like he’s a little bit more locked in he starts hitting all these deep threes and he I know it was 1818 because Rudy was awesome on offense but it was it was just one of those moments was like man he showed up in an elimination game and was like I’m not waiting around I’m gonna win it in the first 12 it reminded me of Lebron in that 2012 game six game in Boston which was the most important game probably his career when he came out in the first quarter and was just making 20f Footers with that crazy look on his face was like oh no this is bad but the great guys they go into a game and they’re like I’m [ __ ] taking this in the first quarter it was awesome he uh he would have a chance here it’s interesting for the youngest finals MVPs um he’d be in the top 12 youngest he’s 25 it’s a pretty good list there’s some guys like Magic’s on it twice Kareem Tim Duncan Dwayne Wade Bill Walton um there’s some weird ones too like Dum Mars and Maxwell and DJ but uh Giannis was 26 Duncan was 26 the second time he won it’s right it’s more conceivable than I thought as I was doing the research I was like man Luca seems young and it’s like no it’s actually this is right around the time especially if he’s somebody who has a chance to be a top 15 or 20 guy ever which I think we’re on Pace now it’s still kind of young though it’s 25 in February it’s a little young but it’s not crazy I think two years ago when it in the 22 playoffs when he went against the Warriors in the Conference Finals if they had made it that year that would have been whoa he’s 22 that we’re doing this now a little like LeBron and ‘ 07 we’re like whoa we’re doing this now um this feels maybe a year early but it’s around when it should have happened I think he’s so good yes because LeBron felt early not to say that we didn’t realize how how good LeBron but that’s still when you look at the rest of it especially when you look at Dallas granted we’ve already talked about it you got to put this dividing line between who they were and who they became and it’s only gotten better but the issue I had was just navigating the landmines of the West and I still couldn’t get there with them and as I watched the Minnesota series I went hey this might be the simple stuff of if you’re really G to try to build a playoff team that can go deep you need two on ball creators you can’t just have one and that was the difference between Minnesota and Dallas do you think Denver would have be them I would have said that but I’m not going to do it to Dallas anymore I’ve already been too disrespectful by not picking him and by the way I don’t know that I’ve ever picked against a team four straight rounds Miami doesn’t count last year I picked against them four times so I don’t I doubt there’ll have ever been a time where I picked against a team in four straight playoff rounds and they actually won the NBA title like last year Miami Denver was easy to pick because I still thought the Celtics series was one of the flakiest things we’ve ever seen but that’ll had them over the Clippers I had them over the Clippers in round one and then I thought okay so he was going to beat them to be fair Luka was yeah once Leonard was out I went okay well now I’m not taking the Clippers so I guess there’s a technicality there but when I thought kawhai was going to play and be healthy the whole time um well yeah I don’t I don’t know that I can ever think of a team that I’ll I’ve when the series started went okay I’m going to pick against them and they won a title so that would be a new one for me I’ll feel pretty I’ll feel pretty proud about that one other thing Dan shaunessy wrote about uh curse the Bambino no the Celtics have a chance tend a drought I think it was tongue and cheek but I couldn’t tell Boston title drought we haven’t won a title haven’t won a title since February 2019 it’s been five years and four months so he was having fun with it but it is the sou the Boston teams won 12 titles from February 2002 to February 2019 no titles in five and a half years apparently it’s a dra I think he was depends depends on what your standard is I think he was kidding uh I’m gonna give you my favorite thing that I heard over the last couple days I was driving back from work because we did rewatchables on Friday and I was flipping around on the serus and that show speak was on Fox and one of the topics was if Dallas wins the [Music] is Kyrie the best sidekick of all time and one of the guys made the case yes but he prefaced it and it was something I I could I was driving on the highway so I couldn’t write this down but he said something like look I know Scotty pipp and has six titles but if if Dallas wins this Kyrie would have two and then he went and I’m like whoa so we’re toss it out 1986 Kevin mccale who was the best defensive Center in the league and and shot 60% in the playoffs and 26- 10 we’re tossing out 2001 Kobe we’re just going to we’re just going to toss away Sidekicks now and Kyrie just because he looked good in a couple rounds is now we’re talking about him and the historical great Sidekicks ever it it was Friday was really great yeah that’s that’s the part like people have lost their mind I think in the Kyrie conversation I just think they have he’s really fun to watch I get it super fun to watch he scored 16 a game against Oklahoma City yeah he was fun to watch watch I get it but and Jaylen is just nobody’s going to be like watch this Jaylen Brown mixtape for six minutes but Jaylen scored more points than him in the playoffs [Music]

The Ringer’s Bill Simmons and Ryen Russillo discuss and preview the NBA Finals between the Celtics and the Mavericks.

For more from The Ringer:
Shop: https://theringer.com/shop
Website: http://theringer.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/ringer
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/ringer
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ringer
The Ringer on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/theringer