Who should the Indiana Pacers give contract extensions to this year? Andrew Nembhard? TJ McConnell?

Who should the Indiana Pacers give contract extensions to this year? Andrew Nembhard? TJ McConnell?

Let’s do an early Deep dive into the Pacers contract extensions this summer Andrew neart T.J McConnell Isaiah Jackson Jaylen Smith what are the Pacers need to consider if anything what are all the factors at play here some of them and many of them overlapping as the Pacers try to build a long-term winner will break it all down today on the lockon Pacers podcast you are locked on Pacers your daily Indiana Pacers podcast part of the locked on podcast Network your team everyday happy Tuesday y’all and welcome into another edition of the lockdown Pacers podcast where we of course talk about the Indiana Pacers as always my name is Tony East I cover the team for Forbes and SII and today we are getting ahead on the extensions the early right now dynamics that the Pacers will have to consider for their presently extension eligible players they could end up acquiring somebody who also is extension eligible their Dynamics could change this will be worth rediscussed but I want to take an early look at it because it’s such a prominent part of their summer in a way that it sometimes isn’t or in a way that it unusually affects what could be the future of the Pacers at several positions a very interesting spot there in heading into this summer from an extensions perspective we’ll run through the pros and cons for each of the four players that could be extension eligible and lots of other stuff including overlapping future factors and all sorts sorts of good stuff like that important to note two things here one two Pacers players are extension eligible right now right this second you listening to this yes that would be Doug McDermot and Pascal seum except those extensions are a huge waste of time because one they’re too low in siakam’s case his max extension right right this second today you listening is two years 81.5 million mcdermitt’s is two years 29.5 million that patients would never do that the reason those are are comical right now is it’s it’s going to be free agency in a month just wait see if see if a different contract’s there and you could just sign it then so there’s nothing going to happen the other thing that’s noteworthy that we’ll get to is Jaylen Smith has to opt into his player option to be extension eligible if he opts out he is not let’s just Dive Right In to this though and when I started a pros and cons list I I kind of had trouble formulating exactly why this is a pro so I’m just going to say what I typed which is good players under reasonable contracts for longer is good right like that’s the reason the reason you do an extension is the pro it’s to get the player on a longer contract on your team even if it means they make more money so it doesn’t S you know I get why that doesn’t sound like a pro that sounds stupid because that is what you’re doing you’re extending someone’s contract but that is the purpose of it right that’s how the Pacers have gotten here in large part over the last half decade this has been a Kevin Pritchard special to me is exactly this good players under very reasonable sometimes under market value contracts for a long Time Miles Turner at 18 to 19 million for four of the last five seasons right outside the season he had the renegotiation a steel Aron Smith at 11 million the next three years is a steal the number they had sabonis at for a long time is a steal just for example and that helps you build your team out so much when your best players or good players are on reasonable long contracts so that is of course the biggest Pro of any extension including the players we’ll talk about today but that’s not you know it it sounds so stupid to the pros are the contract and having the player because like duh that’s the pro of signing someone or the pro of trading for someone but that really is the advantage and especially with young players having them cost controlled early does make a lot of sense like with Andrew neard like with Isaiah Jackson if you can get them on the price that makes sense now there’s a lot to consider early and a lot that the Pacers will have to think about most notably their future funds and future money for example if they resign Obi toen if they resign Pascal sakam next summer Miles Turner free agent due for a race T.J McConnell extension eligible if he makes more money if Andrew neard makes more money if Isaiah Jackson makes more money they’re already into the tax and they would be losing that that that’s are close to the tax I should should say without money earmarked for Ben Shepard or Ben Maan or for jarus Walker or for any other number of players they may acquire in the next two seasons so they have to be mindful that extending everybody who’s extension eligible or giving them a significant large contract right now does prevent them from having a lot of flexibility in the future which as we know the Pacers like unless they’re willing to pay the tax and maybe they think they’re good enough to do that but that is you know one thing to think about is doing that too early does come with financial drawbacks of limiting your flexibility and that’s where it gets scary for the Pacers like let’s say Obi Obi gets a raise Halburn just got a raise Pascal could be getting a raise in a month n Smith just got a raise Miles Turner is due for one next year Andrew NIMH hard’s due for one this year or next year McConnell’s due for one this year next year again not accounting for the young guys that gets to be an expensive team so that is their biggest con consideration is how that all shakes out the other thing that’s fascinating to me as a as a as a loophole of this is the rising midlevel exception which scales in a similar way uh to the salary cap in terms of percentages up like in three years from now really two seasons from now the mle is going to be like $5.5 million $17 million in the first year like if you’re a player are you are you dying to lock into a deal at less than that knowing that if you just sign a short deal or something like that you get back out on the market and that could be available to you like that has to be tempting and so I I wonder how that will impact extension discussions knowing that a bit like it’ll just keep get assuming the TV deal hits the way it looks like it could on the NBA the camp will keep going up the ml will keep going up and these exceptions will keep being worth so much that like why would you lock yourself into 13 to 15 million now when a couple good Seasons means a lot of teams could be able to offer you that much money in future Seasons you have to continue to play well obviously but you know I think that’s a factor that a lot of young players in particular will have to consider going forward so those are kind of the Dynamics that I think are relevant to the conversations we’re about to have I think adrew neard and T.J McConnell specifically are um are worth an entire segment of conversation to do this so we’re going to start and finish uh this first segment by looking at the Young centers the Pacers have Isaiah Jackson is eligible for a rookie scale extension uh and Jaylen Smith would be eligible for a veteran extension if if he opts in remember that um and so the money there for Jackson is a lot easier to calculate right it is in theory um a Max it could go up to the max it won’t be for example like miles Turner’s deal was a rookie scale extension Aaron neith’s current contract is a rookie scale extension at 3 years 33 million it can be up to his Max and as low as anything the thing about these is usually the mle is my Benchmark of what makes sense a couple players have kind of busted that up in recent Seasons most namely pton Pritchard and nesser little but you know in general like if another team could offer you the mle and restricted for agency you should take that instead of taking a deal for less than that so looking at what it could be for Isaiah Jackson the starting point would be what is he actually worth if the Pacers wanted to have him for Beyond just this season like what player as good as him last summer signed a longer contract like Paul Reed does he think he’s as good as Paul Reid does he think he has that much value that was 7.8 million per year Mo Vagner got eight million per year Jack landelle on Al be at a funky trading contract got eight million per year right is Isaiah Jackson as good as those guys can he go into negotiations saying that or is he in the bismack biombo Dwight Powell Mason plumbley Kevin Love kind of four to five million range and the thing to note is Mo Vagner Paul Reed high-end backups but everybody who signed for more than them last summer was a starting center so what where on the scale he lands is kind of important here in my head it’s kind of between all those numbers with the rising Camp environment I’d say something like six million perer that’s a lot less than the mle right so does that actually make sense does for Isaiah Jackson to sign well one more Factor let me throw at you here what if it might depend on what Jaylen Smith does what if Jaylen Smith opts out and Isaiah Jackson knows going into the season or has a pretty good guess that he’s gonna be the backup center well if I’m Isaiah Jackson I’m thinking oh very cool I’m gonna get a lot of opportunity to play this year I think I can up my value that might make him less likely to sign a contract extension whereas if Smith Ops in and that Clarity isn’t necessarily there then that you know kind of Fades away so to me this one’s a little harder to kind of foresee exactly what it would what it would go like or how exactly it could come together because it depends on another player on the team’s Factor it depends on the exact kind of Market that would be out there for him anyway a year from now and the Pacer’s current situation doesn’t really make it make a ton of sense for them to rush into this because there’s a lot of future uh money at stake so we can get back to this after free agency as a discussion but to me and Isaiah Jackson rookie scale extension unless he’s want to take like three years 15 million or something like that or maybe even you know a front-loaded something or another I don’t think this one makes any sense for the Pacers to do just because they could worry about the future of their backup center spot um in the future obviously so that’s where I land on that one Jaylen Smith is interesting he would have to opt in and then he’d be eligible for a veteran extension uh I some for some reason have deleted the uh actual thing from my sheet so I’m redoing the calculation on what it is right now but I believe it’s something like four years 34 yeah it was really close four years 33.9 s million would be the max it could be um the difference between him and Jackson is Jackson just had a good playoff Smith did not whose value is now more to the Pacers or what they are the difference is also remember an extension for Jackson would not start this coming season or the one after that but two years from now because of how the rookie scale stuff works so his extension wouldn’t start till 2025 26 I guess Smiths would too I I’m stupid with how player options work so what are they going to be worth then and if you’re the Pacers which one’s more viable to be your backup center in the playoffs well right now it seems like isaah Jaxon would be the answer but what if Smith opts in and then Jackson use it as a trade piece because they have their backup center in jayen Smith well then maybe they’d want to extend him but is he worth four years 34 million no so it’d be something less than that and maybe we get back to the same thing we just talked about three years 15 million something like that but at that point does Smith want to opt out he could make 5.4 million and then get back on the market next year might depend on if they know if they’re playing or not ironically as the backup five for the Pacers so this one is interesting because the Pacers kind of can have some control over the Dynamics by offering playing time but at the same time I don’t think either of these are worth doing to sacrifice future flexibility when especially in Jackson’s case they could make him a restricted free agent next summer just keep him then if he plays great great pay him and if he plays the same or plays a little better then you can pay him back up Center money and deal with it then so that’s kind of why I think neither of these make sense to happen unless something zany happens in free agency but I suppose with interesting young players who have shown very good flashes Jackson in the playoff Smith throughout the regular season you at least consider it especially under the parameters that we’ve laid out let’s continue and let’s dive into Andrew nard a full segments worth of discussion on his extension what it could look like the pros the cons what he might be thinking and how that would play into this all coming on our next segment here before we get to any of that though we have got to talk about FanDuel it’s winner take all time in the NBA and the NHL and FanDuel is giving you a shot to bring home a big win of your own the finals are here the Celtics and the Mavericks and Edmonton versus Florida that flight is crazy for my media Pals and right now if you’re involved in that action new customers on fendu will can get $150 in bonus Bets with any winning $5 bet how about that 150 bucks to bet on hockey spreads or NBA money lines or player and whatever sport you like MLB anything and plenty more of the fun bets over on FanDuel visit fanduel.com lockon to get that offer and make every playoff shot count again $150 in bonus Bets with any winning $5 bet that’s on FanDuel America’s number one Sportsbook we are back here on lockdown Pacers thanks for making us your first listen today and every single day for your second listen go jump over to either those shows liked on Mavs liked on Celtics here by the upcoming finals just two days away man has it been a while since the NBA has been rocking let’s talk about Andrew nard and I’m going to read you a paragraph from Mark Stein and then I’m going to talk about it and then I’m going to talk about the extension Mark Stein and his substack the Stein line reporting this week I’m reading the paragraph first the Pacers are also widely expected to resign Pascal sakam this offseason to a lucrative new contract after acquiring sakam from Toronto via trade in in January and likewise come to terms on a contract extension with Andrew nard after a string of strong performances from the Canadian both players are represented by the same AG life Sports Tom Todd excuse me Todd ramasar does that mean they are widely expected to sign nard to an extension or is it why they expected to sign cakam and likewise also could come to terms I don’t the the wording there isn’t perfect to me it sounds that reads to me like the Pacers are widely expected to agree to a contract extension with Andrew neard which is interesting um I suppose it makes sense though so here’s the Dynamics of that Andrew neh hard’s current contract has a team option 2025 26 the Pacers would have likely declined it anyway because of restricted free agency reasons but they could decline it now and then give him an extension that starts next season so that would be a way for them to get him paid earlier if you listen to the show outlining the Pacers offseason and the decisions left to make with their own players you heard about this but the reason nard can get an extension that’s actually worth his value is because you can extend a player based on a raise over the average estimated salary around the league I I am guesstimating this year’s current one is 11.95 eight million in a future season it could be anything I used 12 million on the on the show outlining the offseason I think a more reasonable actual prediction something like 12 and a half million so with that in mind uh the max extension adding four years to nar’s current contract would be four years about because it depends on the estimated salary $ 78.4 million so the pros let’s go back to what we started with duh a good player under contract for a while that starts at 17 and a half million it Peaks at 21.7 that’s fine that’s totally reasonable for a young solid starter playoff contributor good Defender good player like Andrew nard right like good again good starters get 15 2025 million that’s just how it works in the in the current market I’m currently looking at the screen of Brook Lopez getting that last year and Bruce Brown getting 20 million last year and Caris lver getting 16 million last year and then we go to the wing and we can see uh that the Sorting feature broke when I clicked then cam Johnson gets 23 million last year Dylan Brooks gets 21 and a half right if you’re a good solid starter at an important position you’re getting in that range Kyle kosma got that last year aim mura was at 17 you get the gist of what I’m saying Andrew n hard’s worth that to me and is getting better and is only 24 so the starting point is is andrean M hardw worth his maximum extension I would start the conversation there if I’m the Pacers and I Tony East would land on the answer of yes he is um and so what happens from there one is you consider the same things I just talked about what does it mean if you add a salary to your team next season that’s a $15 million raise like does that prohibit you from doing something with McConnell does that make you not want to do something with your centers how does that impact miles Turners free agency you’re going to have to trade someone else to clear money potentially like it’s just kind of a tricky thing because he was scheduled to make $2.1 million next season although again they would have declined that for restricted free agency so that’s the other part of this is the Pacers because again what they could do is after Andrew neh hard’s third season decline his fourthe team option then give him a qualifying offer and make him a restricted free agent could they Penny pinch him if they did that that would suck if you’re Andrew nard and his agency but is that a way for the Pacers to save some money that they might need to I don’t know but that’s a reality that’s a part of this and no fun and maybe someone gives him a massive offer then and then all of a sudden it’s not as worth it although they’d have full bird right so they could they could match anything but you you get the gist of like what that risk and reward kind of is the reason I brought up the rising mid-level exception is mostly because of injur nim hard right like let’s say he you know in two years the mid-level exception starts at 14.1 billion like if you’re him and you and the Pacers offer you an extension that’s like three for 50 why would you take that in two years any team could offer you that right and so you could bet on yourself to make more than that or just stay with the Pacers then probably get the same offer next year in restricted for agency is a 25y old so that’s why I think the Max Max Max extension holy moly I can’t talk actually matters is because the mid-level exception climbing so much means the difference between what they can offer him right now and what he could get in the future if he plays out this contract or restrictive fre AGC doesn’t go well is is shrinking in a way that means that he would either take the max or just do nothing and wait a year and bet on himself and hope that he can build off his PLS his rep right now is insanely high so that’s why I think it makes you know the max makes sense for all the parties I think he’s worth it he thinks that the if you’re I’m assuming this if you’re his agency you probably think well there’s no reason for us to take a ton less than that because of the mid-level climbing and the basers future finances certainly suggest that they’ll be you know thinking about all this so to me if this happens and as Stein reported is potentially widely I don’t want to say widely if that’s not what he said but you know potentially expected to happen I think it kind of has to be at or pretty close to what his max extension of four years and again roughly we don’t know the exact number 78 and a half million could be like can you get four for 70 out of this if you’re the Pacers you know what what actually can you get this deal to look like do you want it to be that long do you want it to be shorter what are you trying to build with like are you trying to line him up with halberton contractually what does this actually look like but that’s a big factor to me and there’s one more thing to consider and this will be the case with McConnell too if the Pacers commit money and funds and guaranteed cash for a long time or whatever you consider a long time to Andrew nard then they’d have I mean especially on a Max extension they’d have 60 million tied up to their starting back court which is fine but if you have that and sakam and Turner coming in free agency and and you know who knows how Turner season’s going to look but you know you don’t have a lot to commit to the rest of your back court right so what does that mean for Ben Maan can you pay him in the future what if he explodes what about T.J McConnell and his potential sort of extension or any other guards Ben Shepard for example it’s aarin nouth end up being a two in some ways on this team like there are a lot of factors that play with that position that also makes enough to think about this extension Now versus getting another year of like who plays with what who fits with what how are we approaching this back court and then figuring it out and the same question applies to McConnell although in a different way so that there’s just a lot of interesting factors to me here but I would get it’s a starter it’s a good starter who had a great playoffs and prove that he can play at that level and defend in a way that helps this Pacers team I would strongly consider especially with the cap Rising as much as it is doing if I’m the Pacers offering for year 78.4 million and next summer can Andrew nard get significantly more than because it’s a restricted free agency the Pacers can keep him next summer no matter what can he would he not take this to either get significantly more than that or see if the ml is out there in the future maybe you know maybe he could get into the 20s and that would be why the hurdle would be is if he thinks he can get more than 20 to 25 million or something like that then this seems like something that would not happen let’s see how free agency goes we could Circle back on this conversation this one’s very interesting but I think given Stein’s framing it’s plausible to think this could happen I believe the first date it can actually legally occur is July 22nd so it can’t happen till active a free agency anyway but I think that one’s fascinating I think the Dynamics of that are fascinating and I can’t wait to see where it takes out let’s close with TJ McConnell who is extension eligible as well entering the final season of his contract we’ll talk about him and his extension Outlook right now to close out Today’s show this next segment is brought to you by betterhelp we all carry around different stressors big and small and we keep them bottled up it can start to affect us negatively therapy is a safe space to get things off your chest and to figure out how to work through whatever is weighing you down it can be helpful for lots of stuff beyond that including learning positive coping skills learning how to set boundaries it empowers you to be the best version of yourself and it’s not just for people who’ve experienced major trauma if you have been thinking about starting therapy give better help P try it’s entirely online designed to be convenient flexible and suited to your schedule just fill out a brief questionnaire and get match with the licensed therapist and switch at anytime for no additional charge get it off your chest with betterhelp visit betterhelp.com lockon MBA today to get 10% off your first month that’s betterhelp hp.com lockon MBA we’re back here on lockdown Pacers thanks for making us your first listen today and every single day make your second listen locked on women’s basketball Howard magdal of the next talking about Caitlin Clark today lots of nonsense talking about kayin I haven’t listened to Howard yet because it just came out a couple hours ago but I’m sure he crushed it as he usually does in that space uh let’s finish up talking TJ McConnell new things on this we talked about his offseason Outlook and um what Pacers can offer him on the offseason preview episode last Friday since then I have not listened to this yet I plan on doing so in the next two days uh Evan cidery aggregated from jmv the ride with jmv the uh afternoon Sports Talk Radio Show here locally in Indie Chad B Canon Pacers J went on it again after the season end and this tweet says the Pacers want T.J McConnell to stay with the organization for the remainder of his career he had a great season obviously uh as soon as matheran got hurt and he realized he needed to be a scorer he was he is a master of a strange shot that no one else takes he gets in the paint he’s a great locker room guy just an awesome teammate to have if you’re the Pacers and is good and you know his contract is partially guaranteed this Summer that doesn’t matter they’re going to fully guarantee that but they also can extend it uh they also can extend I don’t know the exact date it might just be July 6 it might be August 6th I don’t know um and it can start at up to $13 million in year one right that’s a lot of money but let’s return to our earlier conversation with raises T.J McConnell’s Max extension by the way is 58.7 million over four years go back to our earlier conversation right now right next summer T.J mcconell will be a free agent and I would presume right now given what we know of the Pacers in their potential offseason upcoming he will be the backup point guard for the team again next year if he had the exact same season he just had what would he be worth on the open market next year because the mid-level exception in the summer of 2025 starts at 14.14 million so does is is locking in an extension that starts at 13 and then year two is less than that mid-level is that actually Smart Financial business for TJ McConnell to consider right good backups are worth maybe that range Maybe a little less you know looking at the point guard Market from last summer like Dennis schruder got 12.7 million per year we did Kobe white comp you know Gabe Vincent got 11 you know with the cap going up a little bit since then does McConnell starting at 13 and really it’s a you know a four-year little under 15 average like is that worth it for him or maybe it’s shorter than that in length maybe it’s two years maybe it’s three years but if they want him to finish his career with the team how does that all work in you know this one’s tricky right and if n hard’s happening and I don’t know that but you know Mark Stein’s reporting language makes makes me think that that’s a stronger possibility than I thought before I put all this together if n hard’s happening and Turner’s a free agent next year and see you know all these guys are due for bigger money right what does that mean for McConnell is he the guy who financially gets squeezed out or is he like if he wants to stay and the Pacers want him are they just in trouble because they can’t get to a price that makes sense because on the other hand he totally is worth you know 10 12 14 whatever number you pick what whatever how high you are on him he is probably honestly for some teams in the league a starter level point guard at least with his play last year certainly one of the best if not the best backup players period but also point guards I mean he got six men of the Year voting like anyway you know a premier player very good there’s a reason that like every report about the Phoenix Suns last year was like yeah they went T.J McConnell which was very funny because they couldn’t legally trade for him at times uh but either way you know he’s very good right and he the thing that makes him uniquely important to the Pacers is they play this style with Tyrese Halburn so uptempo so fast so much Pace random action someone has to organize that and make it possible to play it at that speed and when hurn was off the floor they could continue to play that way in large part because TJ McConnell can play that way so that makes him valuable to the team on the other hand if you’re the Pacers you might say well we hope that someday Andrew neard can do that and we hope that that if that happens our rotation is a little more set at the guard spots then you go back to the conversation I just had about nard of well if you commit money to McConnell what does that mean for matheran or Shephard or whoever so this one is really interesting because taking what Chad Buchanan said to jmv and again I need to listen to it to get the context at face value if they really want him to end his career with Indiana if you’re McConnell and you know you have one more big contract possibly coming your way at age 33 next summer if you have another good season you know it might not make sense for him to want to do an extension but if he has a not great year or the playoffs don’t go as well like could he get this much money again you know but if the are the Pacers willing to offer a Mas extension especially if they keep them hard like there’s a lot of overlapping dynamics of this one that I think are really fascinating right and so once again I’m left with the same question as I am for basically all these guys but more so for McConnell than any other player we’ve talked to I think that you get back to me on July 10th right if nard doesn’t extend or isn’t play on it or if mine’s traded or if Shepherd’s traded or whatever any number of things happen where they have more wiggle room financially or more obvious needs of guard roles yeah might make more sense to extend McConnell and I think they should try to anyway maybe a shorter one like two years three years or something right because the other Factor here is he will be 33 next summer right how much longer can he play this fast and this well you know a lot of guys can get to in the in the new NBA with the new medicine like 30 five to me is the hardest line of like o things get tough there if you give McConnell a four-year extension he crosses that line so it’s going to be really fascinating to see how that this one would go I think it would depend on if McConnell agrees that he wants to retire in Indiana if he sees a role for him to play this year if he thinks he can get more than that all sorts of little factors with him and with the team and their Dynamics and the guard spots that to me I would put this one at less than 50% because of those factors but if there’s mutual interest interest to keep a good player there’s always a way to make something happen there’s just to me a lot of factors that make this one interesting I didn’t want to talk about the years component too much with other guys like would Jaylen Smith be willing to take a one-year extension if he knew Isa Jackson got traded and then he could try to get back on the market then but take the rise or now or guaranteed money or that’s I was just thinking through that then I don’t think that really makes sense for him or would nard be willing to take fewer years to get back out on the market sooner in his career and try to line up his contracts better with Max’s you know you just never know what these guys could want and how this could all shake out and how agency relations play a part but to me if I had to rank the most likely to least likely right now before free agency happens before the draft happens before any trades happens I’d say nard first McConnell second Jackson third Smith fourth that to me these the details you need to think about the Pacers contract extensions heading into the summer but we will see how these Dynamic change as the Pacers situation and finance and all that changes well no sooner as soon as the finals are done the next day free agency can start for your own players as a team uh so we could be like two and a half three weeks away from that reality hitting I can’t wait to talk about it tomorrow we’re talking about speaking of free agency Pascal siakam’s free agency with the Pacers Tyler Smith’s gonna join us we’re gonna talk about the pros the cons the predictions for what we think will happen with Pascal seakan for agency I’ll do the shooting guard preview probably by myself this week just because I’ll be out of town all weekend it’ll be really hard for me to be practical with someone else and I hope to get player review started later this week we’ll see on the schedule there and then next week will be more positions more player season Recaps um all sorts of fun offseason content hope you guys enjoyed this one and learned something if you did or you have questions comment down below if you’re watching on YouTube or tweet at me at Tony R East the show is there at lockon Pacers back tomorrow talking more Pacers offseason with Tyler Smith tell then everybody have a wonderful day

The Indiana Pacers have four players who are eligible for contract extensions this summer in Andrew Nembhard, T.J. McConnell, Isaiah Jackson, and (maybe) Jalen Smith. Which of those players should get a contract extension? What contracts makes sense? Host Tony East breaks it all down.

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