Mavericks-Celtics Predictions: Will Luka Doncic & Mavs UPSET Boston in NBA Finals? | Hoops Tonight

Mavericks-Celtics Predictions: Will Luka Doncic & Mavs UPSET Boston in NBA Finals? | Hoops Tonight

all right welcome to Hoops tonight here at the volume happy Wednesday everybody we are one day away from the start of the NBA finals and after much deliberation after much film after mailbags after everything we are finally going to do our prediction show today so I’m going to go over the five things that I expect to see in this series there’s five kind of General predictions of things that I think we’ll see and then lastly at the end of the show I will give you guys my pick for the 2024 NBA Finals you guys know the before we get started subscribe to the Hoops Tonight YouTube channel so you don’t miss any more of our videos follow me on Twitter atore Jason LT so you guys don’t miss show announcements don’t forget about our podcast feed wherever you get your podcasts under Hoops tonight and then last but not least keep dropping mailbag questions in those YouTube comments so we keep hitting them throughout the series and over the course of the off season all right let’s talk some basketball so five things I expect to see in the 2024 NBA Finals between Boston and Dallas number one I expect Luca to look very comfortable we just saw against Minnesota’s defensive personnel with Jaden McDaniels who again I don’t think he’s as big and strong obviously he’s not as big and strong as Tatum who will pre present a different type of physical challenge to uh to Luca but we saw Kyle Anderson who’s a similar type of physical build we saw Jaden McDaniels we saw a lot of really good defensive Personnel on Luca and a substantially better rim protector and Rudy gobear than anybody that Boston brings to the table and LCA looked really comfortable 32 two points per game he was 47% from the field 43% from three and 11 attempts per game in that Series against Minnesota so I think Luca is going to look more or less similar in terms of uh his command of the series in this uh in this particular matchup his knee looked better he looked more or less 100% to me he’s also had a full week of rest since then to kind of keep things sharp and and uh and healthy so like I I expect Luka to look comfortable and then also Boston’s pick and roll defense is the weak point of their defense they obviously porzingis being out had an impact on the metrics but even with porzingis in the lineup that’s the one weak point in Boston’s defense they have Defenders that do okay in switches they like I think Al Horford does better on switches than a guy like porzingis but porzingis is much better at The Rim but neither of them presents that unique capability that a Rudy goar or some other guys around the league that uh that can defend in a deep drop defend at the level and defend in switches and so I expect a lot of attacking there now Boston’s going to have counters like we talked about in the film sessions I expect to see uh christop porzingis on PJ Washington for the majority of the series but in general I think that Luca is going to look to attack that specific opening throughout the series and I do think he will look comfortable number two PJ Washington’s three-point shooting will be the main swing factor for the Dallas Mavericks again as we talked about with porzingis on PJ Washington the simple problem that presents for Dallas is if he rolls into the lane on ball screen against porzingis he’s just not the vertical spacer that Daniel Gafford or Derrik Lively is if he pops to the three-point line he’s a 29 a half% above the break three-point shooter in this postseason run over 41% from the corners but by virtue of Just The Way pick and roll works when you pop to the three-point line generally speaking it’s an above the break three and like it would just be really difficult to configure that to end in a corner three for PJ Washington anyway and so PJ Washington’s ability to knock down above the bre bre threes or to drive those close outs and hit floaters and make plays off the bounce that is going to be a huge swing factor for Dallas’s offense in the series because he is going to be the entry point for them to attack Boston’s defense through porzingis or Horford whoevers on the floor number three porzingis is three-point shooting will be the main swing factor for Boston one of the main elements to Dallas’s defense they are a load up defense they want to keep their Rim protectors at The Rim they want to shrink the floor on ball handlers and leave openings at the three-point line usually on the opposite end of the four specifically in pick and roll Gafford and Lively have been guarding a rle man in in uh in Rudy goar that has bad hands that struggles to finish layups he shot below 50% on layups in this postseason run right so like totally different type of offensive threat in christops porzingis even than Chad holgren who shot just 22% from three in the uh Dallas Maverick Series right so like porzingis who’s shooting 40% from three in the four playoff games he’s played this year and I think 38% for the season season just a completely different threat and specifically is comfortable and confident shooting out well below uh beyond the above The Brak line like out to like 26 27 ft he’s pretty comfortable and so Lively and Gafford if they’re going to protect the rim in ball screens and in just straight ISO postup situations where they’re just helping off of porzingis they’re going to have to concede those threes I believe they will concede them to start the series right if porzingis starts hitting that will force Dallas to abandon a lot of their core defensive Concepts and change the way that they look to guard a lot of this stuff so porzingis is three-point shooting is going to be huge if his efficiency dips to the point where it’s it’s table for Dallas to leave him open or if porzingis loses confidence that could be a massive swing in Dallas’s favor over the course of the series we’ve seen good Shooters on great teams lose confidence in the finals before even in for the champion last year Michael Porter Jr struggled for Denver Michael Porter Jr struggled again this year in the Minnesota Series right like Harrison Barnes in the 2016 finals we’ve seen guys that can shoot go ice cold in the NBA finals and just the pressure of that stage in that situation and if that happens to porzingis that would be a huge swing in Dallas’s favor especially if it continue along to Horford number four Jason Tatum’s impact will extend well beyond the box score I’m not interested in having a conversation about how well Tatum is playing in this series that focuses solely on the box score it’s a factor he will need to prod produce offensively but if he’s at 25 points per game in the series on you know call it 60% true shooting but it seems like he’s not as involved offensively that probably has a lot to do with the way he’s being guarded and all of the defensive responsibility that he has in this group obviously if he goes into the series and he averages 22 points per game and shoots like 37% from the field that’s a different story but make sure that we pay attention over the course of the series of all the little things that Tatum does to make this team function on the offensive end of the floor with him being the entry point to uh because he’s one of their best Playmakers he probably the best playmaker on the team with him running guard action with drick white and Drew holiday to attack LCA donic get the defense in rotation with simple playmaking and then everything he can do on the defensive end of the floor between being the low man switching onto anybody switching on to Luca Tatum is a Swiss army knife and he needs to be covered in that specific way it’s a very different type of Series this I used to run into this all the time with uh uh with comparing LeBron to some of these other guys at the top of the league like what Luca does for Dallas is very different than what Jason Tatum does for Boston and so just zeroing in on box score numbers I don’t think is a fair way to characterize their roles in this series and then lastly I think we will see multiple Boston blowouts in this series I’m not going to get into the specifics why because I want to save it for my prediction but or my my actual pick for the series but one of my big predictions for this series I think we will see multiple games where Boston wins in the game is over in the early fourth quarter I think that’s just going to be a a a a recurring theme I think we’re going to see at least two of them over the course of the series we’re this close to crowning a new NBA champ and with the action heating up on the court it’s even hotter at draftking Sportsbook an official sports betting partner of the NBA there’s only so many games left and draftking Sportsbook has you covered with same game parlays live betting odds boost and so much more don’t miss out or you’ll have to wait until next NBA season to place your bets it’s super easy for first- Tim to get started try betting on something simple like picking a team to win go to the draftking Sportsbook app select your squad and place your first bet it’s that simple the odds for the NBA finals are up on DraftKings right now you can get Boston at minus 220 to win the title Dallas is at +75 new to DraftKings listen up new customers can get a no sweat bet up to 1,500 bucks just deposit at least five bucks and you’ll get a bonus bet back equal to your first bet if it doesn’t hit download the DraftKings Sportsbook app now and use code Hoops that’s code Hoops h o o PS for new customers to get a no sweat bet up to 1,500 bucks if your first bet doesn’t hit only on DraftKings the crown is yours so here’s my prediction I’m picking Boston in six games and my reasoning is pretty simple I think that Dallas’s defense even though it is an elite defense is a little bit dependent on loading up on the strong side go through their matchups in the first three rounds with the Clippers iaz zubach non- shooter teren Mann guy who can knock down threes but not a super aggressive three-point shooter Russell Westbrook bad three-point shooter PJ Tucker bad three-point shooter go to the Thunder series Lou Dort and Josh giddy were guys that you weren’t necessarily concerned about chasing off the line Chad holgren had a bad shooting series even kasan Wallace and Aaron wigin struggled to shoot so they could really load up the strong side for the Timberwolves Rudy goar non-shooter Jen McDaniels a guy they weren’t particularly worried about n Alexander Walker a guy they weren’t worried about Kyle Anderson non shooter that is not what you’re dealing with with Boston all eight of their core rotation players including the core guys drik white Drew holiday Jason Tatum Jaylen Brown porzingis Horford Off the Bench pton Pritchard and Sam Hower that’s probably going to be the core eight guys you see in the series all eight of them are guys that you basically can’t leave open and so it’s just a fundamentally different type of defensive situation that they are in Boston in my opinion is going to force Dallas out of their core defensive schemes and really challenge depth of personnel that can contain on the perimeter what does that mean when you can load up on the strong side you can ask a guard to chase over the top like a derck Jones Jr you can maintain your your best available matchups and you can have one Elite perimeter Defender like Derrick Jones Jr do just such a great job on ant that it kind of changes the series right or PJ Washington do a good job on Carl Anthony towns that’s not what it’s going to be like against Boston it is going to be a down the roster job of contain paining on the perimeter in a far more spaced out environment and I do not think Dallas is that type of Defense interestingly enough I don’t think Boston is a very good load up the strong side type of Defense because they’re not a great Rim Protection Team right and they’re a little bit smaller on the perimeter but I think Boston is an excellent spread the floor contain on the perimeter depth of perimeter defense type of Team these are two very different defenses like the Boston is actually like really well equipped to guard themselves right because you’d be comfortable with Jaylen Brown guarding a guy tayum guarding a guy Drew holiday guarding a guy Derek white guarding a guy that is not the type of build that Dallas has and so I like I want to be clear I expect Luka to look great and I think Dallas’s offense will function for stretches of the series I think they’ll win games in the series I just think Boston’s going to get good looks more consistently and when I back to that fifth prediction that I had I think there will be when Boston’s hitting their threes and they run Dallas out of the gym as I mentioned I think there will be at least two Boston wins in this series where they where the game is over in the early fourth quarter I think Dallas’s wins will be more grind out like stuck in the half court lower scoring Luca out execute some type of games but to be clear Boston’s a really good clutch team too these two teams actually ranked third and fourth in net rating in clutch situations in the regular season through uh A ranked with the entire NBA these are both Elite clutch team teams and so like if Boston actually steals one or two of the clutch games early in the series that’s where Dallas could be in real trouble one other thing Boston is the more experienced team Tatum Horford Brown and Derrick White have all played in the finals Drew holiday literally won the finals in 2021 they should be relatively comfortable in this setting while there might be some Jitters on the Dallas front if I had to guess a pathway for how I think the series is going to go I think Dallas will steal one in Boston if I had to guess I’ll go with game two and then I think Boston will see one in Dallas if I had to guess I’d go with game four and then I think Boston will win games five and six so if I had to pick game by game that means I think Boston’s going to win game one Dallas game two Dallas game three Boston game four Boston game five Boston game six more or less a similar Pathway to what happened to Boston in the 2022 finals uh but that’s that’s kind of how I see it going at this point I want to be clear like Boston very much has an or Dallas very much has a chance to win this series this isn’t me saying Boston is 100 % going to win and Dallas is a bunch of bums but in two Elite teams I think it is a matchup that favors Boston I also think Boston is a little bit better on both ends of the floor I like that they have homecourt Advantage I like that they’re a little bit more experienced I think Boston is more likely to win the series and so I am picking Boston to win in six games all right it’s out there it’s in The Ether we’re going to cover the games I’m excited for it I will see you guys tomorrow night after the final buzzer [Music] he

Jason Timpf shares his predictions for Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, and the Dallas Mavericks’ matchup with Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and the Boston Celtics in the NBA Finals. Jason discusses the five things he expects to see throughout the series before sharing his pick to hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy.

Timeline:
00:00 – Introduction
00:47 – (1) Luka will be comfortable
02:45 – (2) PJ Washington three-point shooting
03:46 – (3) The Porzingis Effect
05:47 – (4) Jayson Tatum’s impact
07:10 – (5) Multiple Boston blowouts
08:41 – NBA Finals Predictions

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