How the NBA’s new “2nd apron” will shape the Denver Nuggets’ offseason moves | DNVR Nuggets Podcast
[Music] um I think one important footnote about this this this group of of men that we have down in the Nuggets locker room is the core of this team was assembled under a different CBA um and we drafted we developed and we built this team um under a different set of rules those rules have kind of changed on the Fly uh last summer it wasn’t quite as as pertinent as it is going to be this summer coming off of a championship and some of our contractual situations last summer um but we’re going to put our heads together and figure about how we can keep keep improving we have the best player in the world um we think we still have the best starting five in basketball even though we fell just short this year could have gone could have gone either way up until the last few minutes um so we don’t think we’re far off uh but there is going to be some some constraints coming in with the new the new collective bargaining agreement and the new rules that we’re going to have to be very aware of and we’re have to plan accordingly well there you go assembled under a different CBA so podcast this podcast was assembled under a different CBA what is up everybody welcome to the dmba show go live from the Toyota Lounge driven by your Front Range Toyota stores Toyota the official vehicle of dmvr very special show for you today going to be in depth on the mechanisms the nuggets have at their disposal some of the restrictions that might be facing them with this new CBA a very technical heavy episode of the show we’re going to dive in and to bring to help us with all of that writing annual Manifesto on the Nuggets offseason how many years in a row is this now it’s got to be like four or five uh but this one seems like the best one yet he he is Jake coin aka the stats Squatch formerly bronos Squatch of stats perform welcome to the show man it was great you’ve gotten a lot of uh you know it’s catching on every year it gets more and more popular oh yeah I mean you know I always appreciate all the feedback I get and uh I love putting it out there as a free resource for everybody and you know happy to be here and bring the average tide of uh this group down so thanks well you’re you’re replacing dline so I don’t know how how much you’re bringing it down I can’t help but notice every time I’ve been here D Line’s not here he said he’ll never be on when you’re on he’s anti nerd so he he’s anti- details yeah he doesn’t like the minutia um but also rounding out the height of the show brenon vote what’s up gang I watched Godzilla minus one again yesterday and I am my my spirit my human Spirit my will to live are fully replenished because of Godzilla minus one yeah you should watch that movie you should watch if anyone wants to band together and save the day or the world holler at me so it’s Godzilla minus one correct it’s like ground zero minus one gotcha okay uh then over there Harrison wind I watched Back to the Future to the other day a good one that’s a good one that’s a good movie but my will to live has not been restored have quite the same effect should have watched Godzilla yeah um so if you don’t know what we’re talking about as we intro this one Jake had assembled I called it a Manifesto It’s a very detailed deep dive into the technical aspects of how Denver can construct their roster given the options they have and really goes through the new collective bargaining agreement and what the restrictions that are in place there that’s what it’s all about and I want and we’re going to kind of in the show we’re basically going to turn that article into an hourong discussion now about some of the things there and I want to start because you started with what you know sort of prologue a preface if you will where you talked about building a winner to contextualize the Nugget season mhm want to walk us through real quick what you mean by that cuz your point was the Nuggets were good enough to win a title this year they didn’t and it’s important to understand when a team doesn’t win a title doesn’t always mean that they did it wrong yeah I mean I think it’s important to understand that like you know the front office their goal every year I’m sure is to win a title and so when they don’t do it it is a failure to a degree uh but there’s so many factors in the NBA that you just like can’t control when it comes to the playoffs matchups uh shot variants injuries just little things like that and uh you know if you’re putting yourself in the group of teams that can win the title I think that’s about as much as you can ask for in most years uh and I talk about like the warriors uh the curry Durant Warriors their goals were above that because they had you know really convenient contract timing and stuff so they were they were Head and Shoulders above everybody but but nowadays and especially going forward under this new CBA uh if you’re giving yourself a shot I think you’re in pretty good shape but you can’t fail too many years in a row or it becomes a problem if you look there’s people that look at sports as like Manifest Destiny you know this team was destined to win they were the team of Destiny and they and they won it and there’s other people that look at everything as probabilities it’s less fun to look at life as probabilities because it like you I think Manifest Destiny is a great every movie you watch it’s not about the probabilities it’s about the hero and this was the journey he was meant to be on but the truth is it is probabilities and even the best teams like the nuggets in 2023 their odds probably were like 35% to win the title which is great but it was still like lower than what you expect I remember Vegas in 2017 with the Warriors their odds to win was like 45% and I remember being like they’re so much better than everyone but that’s how it works that’s how it works and so much can go wrong right right and I I’m not necessarily saying this is what happened to Denver but just any given team avoiding injuries is such an A A sometimes uncontrollable factor that is going to pop up I you know so I I you could have everything you need um but I think now more than ever in this career in NBA no one has like a golden ticket to the finals except for the I mean the stic play in the East but but like there but there’s no I mean like as much as we love Denver’s team building make no mistake the title was not an outlier in that they had the best player in the world and that’s what a lot of it has come down to but I do think there was a time where you could pencil two or three teams in to just be there again and I I don’t know I don’t know if it’s going to work that way going forward because oh especially in the age of parody in the age of parody wind there are just way more teams in that conversation going forward every year more than ever and with this new CBA and of course we have the perfect guest to help explain that so it’s again it’s not that it can’t be done and and you know we did still wanted to hold the Nuggets to that standard but it’s it’s it’s always easy to pick the field against any one team it always is yeah and and I even feel like there are teams in history I remember go be one of the things that made me like go from hating gobear and being the loudest gobear hater was there were times when I was like yeah but he played the Warriors guys like of course he looked terrible guarding Steph that’s a bad break that’s a totally and I think that is the big thing about the NBA is a a lot of our histories have been written by teams that when people reduced this down to Denver didn’t play anyone last year it’s an oversimplification but there’s a kernel of Truth in it that is they didn’t play somebody that was specifically designed to beat them they played good teams they played LeBron Anthony Davis but there is something too some years you just your weakness doesn’t get exploited but right it’s important to kind of recognize that everybody has an Achilles heel and part of winning a title is not having it would you put do you agree at least to that extent that it’s everyone has a flaw and some teams is flaw and just never becomes a factor absolutely yeah I mean really sometimes it’s about the luck of the draw and I don’t want to make basketball sound too luck based or or building a roster too luck based but so much of this can come down to circumstances and you know what you can do with the circumstances in front of you yeah so let’s talk about what went wrong you had a section in your uh article about what went wrong with the season and you had a great stat the first one is that Jamal Murray scored at a 0.992 points per field goal attempt in the playoffs and he led the nuggets and field goal attempts that he became one of just five players to lead a team a playoff team in field goal attempts but shoot below one point per possession wow so he was not just inefficient he was sort of historically inefficient almost to the degree that he was historically efficient last year this was like the exact opposite it’s weird that he’s going to have two when you look at the stats he’s going to end up on two sides but that for for you and for me as well is reason number one the Nuggets didn’t win Murray was not just average he was actually worse than his average yeah for sure and I mean we’re not breaking any news here right I think most people that watch that series know Jamal Murray struggled but I also note in there you know when you look back at the 2023 playoffs behind probably only joic he’s the reason you won it right and so you know you can’t overreact too much we know Jamal was was probably hurt uh and that affected how he played so now it’s about how does he respond to that how does he come back next year looking uh does he help the Nuggets uh Propel themselves in the regular season to where yic doesn’t have to play so many minutes and so many high leverage minutes uh or does he kind of come back the same I think that’ll be the interesting thing to hear I think he’s going to come back the same quite honest but I also think that this is worse than who he’s not that bad and then went to game seven what’s interesting is these playoffs have kind of in a way come down to how well do your top two options play you know right like Jaylen Brown and Jason Tatum play the best big two in the East yeah Kyrie and Luca the best big two in the West in the playoffs you know Minnesota like Edwards and towns like or Edwards and gobear not better than Kyrie and Luca like obviously the playoffs come down to so many things but you absolutely need your top two guys playing at an elite level to win a championship I think yeah for Murray it is so weird though are there any other players that you think of that are this hot and cold is there players especially I’m trying to think of the most successful Kyrie Irving might be one of them to be honest with you like he’s been phenomenal in big moments and horrible in big moments but Edward’s a little bit in these playoffs yeah yeah Edward he’s so young and raw that I think he almost looked especially good against Denver but yeah I think Anthony Davis is a little that way maybe not quite as valleys uh as Jamal but sometimes he looks like the best player out there and then sometimes you go through a whole half and you’re you just don’t really notice it that might be it that’s a great cuz the Bubble Run however heard you feel about it he was ridiculous he was straight up tremendous he was as good an outlier shot maker as Jamal Murray was last year right but we’ve also seen him really not match that level every time and yeah once you’ve shown you can do it you’re now a candidate for or a lightning rod for criticism because the expectations are there and like you’ve set this own bar for yourself and now you have to go and meet it and then and people will expect you to and when you don’t you know you get Summers like this as far as the outside noise the other you mentioned number two and number three reasons which I’m going to combine which is one yic playing without a star a second star and you list some crazy statistics in there about how he has played the most consecutive games for a franchise without a player who made an All-Star Game he’s played 4 50 games for the Denver Nuggets without an All-Star number two is Ben Gordon this is a little misleading because like Murray is an All-Star caliber player Jamal mcore is not an All-Star caliber player but he made an All-Star game so this is a little Mis misleading but when you look at the numbers that you laid out 450 games for yic number two’s Ben Gordon at 331 Sharie Abdul rahee 277 Trey young fourth all time at 195 250 below yic it’s actually kind of a crazy outlier and the reason I bring it up is I actually think this will be a major storyline if the Nuggets don’t have success next year because right now we know that this is a little BS but if they don’t win it next year I think their people are going to be like 530 games without an Allstar that’s insane yep and I think especially so if if like Luca for example continues to see success next year after that Mavericks paired him with another star player yeah uh and yeah like you said I mean there’s some there’s some data that number that can kind of give some context to it uh but you know I think one thing to note is that I mean I hesitate to post something like that because I think the Nugget Supporting Cast is really good and I don’t want to you know pull down on that but I mean it just goes to show what yic is doing is really impressive and I think in the back of your mind you kind of Wonder you know if they fail to win a title again next year what would it look like with a second star next to him would that help him you know not play as much in the regular season I also note in that report how few blowouts Denver has right for how many wins they have I think it’s just I think it’s all kind of combined into one big question so blowouts but also win streaks we’ve talked about this a lot part of why the nuggets have to play so hard of one 14 game win streak buys you an enormous amount of margin because that’s one run and then you just have to play like a 48 win team the rest of the year and you’re going to have a great record but Denver never has that either and I think that’s a function of what we’re talking about absolutely it’s a it’s a supplemental star problem right like it’s your best player we definitely mythologize the way players like Jordan never let you lose uh but I’m sure even Jordan if you go back and actually watch the games there are nights where he’s less than superhuman but they the win streak stayed alive because Pippen whatever take your pick the next best player stepped up and certainly Murray and Porter have done that on occasion but you would not say that either of them do it consistently and do think that yic is consistently putting the team in a place to win there’s there’s and it’s it’s where the Murray not being an All-Star criticism becomes a real thing it’s it is it is in fact his job to be that guy now and ideally Porter too but let’s not kid ourselves we have higher expectations for Jamal what what about this one wind which you’ll find interesting he pulled up this stat because it also goes with fatigue it’s not just about having a good player to make your ceiling higher but also just to make your Baseline average higher so that it’s less hard yic in the fourth quarter against the Lakers 60% of his shots came in the restricted area against the Timberwolves just 18.4% wow just 18 and then if you he did some numbers there where you take out the blowout games cuz maybe those were were abnormal it doesn’t matter the numbers actually don’t change meaningfully there’re still he was not shooting in the restricted area in the fourth quarters of that series which is one good sign that he was fatigued what do you make of that stat well obviously Minnesota they have a way more imposing and taller front line than the Lakers do I mean the Nuggets lived in the paint against the Lakers they couldn’t um against the Timberwolves but yeah I mean fatigue was obviously an issue it’s why I think he attempted so many threes in that series especially game seven I always think the biggest indicator of if yic is tired or not is if he’s shooting threes because shooting threes just easier than going down and battling go beer towns in the pain it just is in particular missing threes cuz if he takes like he’s five of six you’re like well he was making them yeah but when you’re 0 for seven or whatever he was in that game and he just keeps shooting him you’re like he’s probably tired yeah damn so I think that was it and then the last thing you put on here was that the net rating in that series for the starters which the starters is their best punch minus 21.6 this has been well publicized we’ve talked about it I stunning it is stunning I think some of this has to do with the Nugget starters just weren’t very good Murray looked fatigued Gordon looked fatigued yoke looked fatigu I think it was a lot about fatigue but less so than you put in the article I actually just think that Minnesota is a tough matchup for them specifically and while I think minus 21.6 is a bit harsh I don’t think it’s crazy to think that if Denver had a better series or plays them next year and has a better series The Starters would still be a negative they might win but I wouldn’t be surprised if Denver won a series where the starters were a negative against that team yeah I’m with you I mean one thing that kind of caught my eye in the Mavericks Timberwolves series was just how Dallas is able to attack Minnesota off the dribble uh dribble penetration and everything when you’re guarding Denver it’s it’s not it’s not really as much of an issue especially with a hobble Jamaal Murray right uh you know Aaron Gordon he can do some ball handling but you know if you’re guarding him you know he’s probably not going to do a pullup on you just kind of back up a little bit or whatever and so you know I don’t know if they’ll be able to fix that going into next year uh so lack of attacking off the dribble probably going to be a problem and I think that’s going to make Minnesota a difficult match up for him do you see Bruce is one of like that I’ve always said all year the reason that they’re going to miss Bruce the most is ball handling yep and and that specific part dribble Drive attacks like putting pressure on you off the dribble yeah and the three-point threat that draws you out yeah I think people probably overrate Bruce’s ball handling a little bit like you know I’ve read some people this Summer that say oh you know we could bring him back he’s basically a point guard or something and I don’t remember Bruce being like that at all but the great thing about Bruce was that he could do some of that and he also shared so many traits with other players on the roster that if Jamal was out you could put Bruce in if kyp was out you could put Bruce in if one of the forwards was out you could put Bruce quarter’s mind was somewhere else in the fourth quarter you could put Bruce in and so Bruce would have been a huge help and that’s just talking about the on the court stuff I think he also uh provided a big mental boost for Denver last year but I do wonder if it’s it’s not Bruce specifically but we’re just talking about ball handling and that you find that elsewhere in theory I don’t um but they they just once they traded Barton who was cooked and I understand Barton and Monte away for kcp a home run of a trade they were down to one ball handler right and I mean and that again not to repeat myself over and over that’s the real significance of the bones thing not working out as he was the closest thing they had to a long-term plan for someone else to handle the Rock and I to me going forward that’s the number one thing to address over a backup center over any other factor I just think they need more ball handling I think bones would have gotten eaten alive by the Timberwolves probably perimeter Defenders man probably I mean I’m not the point guard Point stance that’s it and that yeah yeah it is interesting to think about all right let’s take a break on the other side though that’s T table setting on the other side we’re going to talk about this second apron and why it really contextualizes everything about what the nuggets are about to do here in the coming weeks what is it how does it work and how are the Nuggets going to handle it guys get ready for the season ahead with quality Shades built to last check out Shady Rays shadyrays.com they have tons and tons of different brand tons of colors tons of styles you can even get aviators in that style on Shady Rays just like this.com look like I’m about to fly a plane you can use the code dnvr get 35% off polarized sunglasses huge discount for the summer 35% off polarized AR try 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like what the salary cap is it’s a dollar number where if you’re below it you can use cap space aprons are just another dollar number that if you go over it’s going to affect what you’re able to do uh going back to that Calvin Booth quote uh that we showed at the beginning or Josh Kony I think it was uh under the last CBA there was kind of three groups of teams there was your cap space teams or sorry in the last CBA there was two there was your cap space teams and there was your overthe cap teams and while there was some minor differences between apron teams and over the cap teams it was really not too not too bad under this CBA there’s your cap space teams there’s your first apron teams and then there’s your second apron teams and they really hammered down on on some penalties for those second apron teams so teams that have a really high salary the NBA is making it very difficult for you to get better us outside sources let’s talk about some of the reasons for this I think the number one there’s two reasons I think most for this parody I think Adam Silver wants parody oh yeah like in the NBA the NBA’s never really had a lot of parody to be honest with you they want parody and I think he succeeded in that but also and a bigger issue I think that back in the day you had owners that were pretty close to worth the same amount of money and I just think the way the world works now some of your owners are worth 80 billion and some of them are worth 1 billion and I think that has a lot to do with it is this idea of well you’re going to have to pay a lot of money if you go over the cap and there’s guys like Balmer that are like there’s no such thing as a lot of money yeah and I think that’s part of I mean do you agree that that’s part of it is we can’t just make this a financial thing we have to make it incentives for other other aspects yeah for sure I think the NBA is just trying to even the playing Ground both for owners uh but also for markets I mean we’ve always seen you know teams like La they get a lot of the free agents even if they’re offered the the same contract somewhere else so right I think this is uh really an attempt by the NBA to even the playing field like you said for owners um but also just across the board for all other things as well all right walk us through the second apron restrictions now so strict dollar Ford dooll trade rules do that mean every trade made actually has to be a perfect you trade 15.1 million you got back 15.1 million not quite that would be really difficult uh but what it is is for the team that’s over the second apron you cannot take back more money than you send out and so we could just call this the Zeke Nai rule yes so under like the old CBA there used to be percentages you could match and then like a $100,000 padding uh which is not that much no but now they I think they lessen the restrictions for cap space teams and stuff but if you’re a second apron team you cannot take back more money than you’re sending out so some of these tiny little deals where a guy it’s like oh they’re making 15.1 but then you look closer and you’re like oh wait not quite yeah so if you’re looking for a zek naagi trade that guy has to make 8.4 or whatever it is8 8.8 yes pretty much around that yeah the interesting thing with Zeke is if they trade him on draft night they’re actually doing it under the 2023 24 cap rules poison oh okay so they can actually because they have to stay under the second apron this year because Reggie Jackson got the mle and so I think they have like 4.7 million in space so if they trade Zeke on draft night uh there are some other Financial things they’ll have to take into account uh as far as his contract but is it easier to do it before or after then uh I mean it depends on the team you’re trading him to yeah it kind of just depends on the guy you’re trading for is he making 4 million or eight something so he’s got a poison pill in his contract I won’t get too deep into that but basically what it means is before July 1st if you trade him his outgoing value is 4.3 his incoming value for the team getting him uh is 7 six or something if I’m doing the math in my head and so you could combine him with Reggie and trade him to a team but they would have to be able to take back that full amount luckily with some of these new trade rules I think that isn’t that hard of an ask so you know if Denver wants to do a two for one like that it might be easier to do it at the draft the draft Yeah okay which is there one you expect them to do just on logic just using your own logic I don’t know I mean half of me kind of thinks are they just going to go into the year with Zeke okay I can’t do it man I can’t that’s that’s happen to me I feel like there’s no chance Adam you should have heard about how hard he worked over the summer well but yeah he’s really have you seen the transformation is he exploring his game what if he wins training camp again will that what if he goes to summer league yeah oh my God come on that would actually be the worst thing for Zeke probably wants out of Denver so bad he’s ever been online once in his life he’s like I hate this he needs a he needs a different un unfairly sitation we all everyone is is like get get this guy out of here what were those starter number again in the playoffs if I’m Z i’ probably going hang on [ __ ] me but I digress that’s so funny man did you see Michael Porter’s three-pointer come on man but uh to answer your question though I would I would lean towards they would do it after July 1 yeah just because one other thing they can do after July 1st is access their 2031 picks so a first and a second right maybe they have to attach a second there to get uh what they want back so I would lean towards after July 1st I agree so far away I’m just this era has been so great and I want it to keep going that I’m like you know what I don’t care about the 203 at all at all I might be dead by then I hope so uh let’s go to this other one that’s really weird so the next what do you have next on the list here kale how do you have it so you can only sign veteran minimum players your draft picks your newly acquired draft picks and then buy out players making under the mle so if a player is making under the mle which is like 14 million or something like that and they get bought out then you could add them to the list usually you buy them out you buy them super low but if they’re making more than that so for example Chris Paul gets bought out Mak making way more than that Max you cannot sign him yep that’s correct so you can only sign them using the minimum uh so that PR rates as the year goes on so it’ll be a different amount but right right but yeah I mean this is the same rule as last year this one was a rule that we already had uh so that is like why the Nuggets couldn’t go after Gordon Hayward if he would have got bought out this last season so so you can’t the the point of this is you can’t trade you have less flexibility on trades even though it’s a small almost technicality it still matters cuz there are trades that fit there you’re only signing guys to minimums and even on buyouts you’re not available to buy out with buyout candidates how many of them what percentage would you say are above the mle it’s a good question historically uh slightly under half maybe I don’t know it seems like it’s usually a little bit I don’t know actually it’s always like the last year of a deal a 5year deal where it’s like the appendage was still there the the player that’s no longer that great but was on a big deal yeah I mean I try not to concern myself with buyout guys too much just because they swing your title odds a lot less than I think uh people than people like to think in March unless unless you have an injury I guess they could they could be really helpful mean Spencer deny like there’s always a guy you can’t wait to see where he goes and good luck I will say though it is because I was thinking about this too about how Dallas and even Michael Malone is like you know why they’re in the finals because they made a a deadline deal that that’s why and then I don’t know if it was on Simmons’s pot or somebody’s pot I was listening to lately where they were going through all the finals teams in history that have made a meaningful deadline deal and made it and there was like four total teams over 50 years so I do feel like there’s a little prisoner of the moment un unless it’s the game has changed a little bit unless the game has changed a little bit and so this is if if we’re talking about parody and the margins are smaller it maybe these moves and again they didn’t go out and get Allstars they didn’t trade in right they didn’t go let’s see what we can do with Kevin Durant in two months there’s also an argument that signing a guy in the buyout Market if that means you have to resign him in the summer is actually really detrimental to your team going forward who are you talking about nobody in particular considering they rarely make a meaningful impact that season going into the playoffs that’s an it might actually be detrimental in most cases on average but here’s the big one which is the final piece of this second apron that really in my opinion matters the most there’s an insane draft pick rule that almost makes it so that the second apron is not really a deterrent but more of a death nail explain this one yeah this one’s a I mean I could do a whole 10-minute segment on this one I won’t do that but can if you want so basically if you’re over the second apron it activates a window where you’re going to face a draft pick penalty so uh how it works is if the Nuggets were to be a second apron team this year by the end of the season their 2032 first round pick would be frozen meaning they can’t trade it can’t trade it which on one hand for the Nuggets might not be a big deal because they’re currently their tradable firsts are usually in odd years so 2029 2031 uh 2031 will be the only one they can trade but so 2032 getting Frozen not a huge deal for the nuggets in particular but it activates this window where if after your second apron year if you’re over the second apron for at least two of the following four years then that pick becomes Frozen for good and it also moves to the end of the first round so it turns no matter what it’s almost like you traded away your first round pick you just traded it to yourself for a second rounder which is essentially what would happen so if you think here’s why this is crazy teams like Denver and I understand the idea of parody but I when I think about when I Game Theory this one out for how is this going to work I don’t know if this will ever affect the Lakers or those types of teams because they’re less dependent on it but I do look at it and go in this window Denver might have to go into the second apron they might have to put themselves in position but you know who’s never going to climb out and not having a draft pick after the window is over the Denver Nuggets that would be a 20 a 10year if you have to restart a rebuild without your own first round picks or a even oneyear pick I just feel like that would be a So Adam Silver put in the second apron to help small markets but in the end he’s really just helping the Lakers this is how it always works by the way all of the things that in in any Market when you put in these types of crazy restrictions that are complex yeah you can never know how they are going to have trickle down Years Years coming Jake could I view this as simply though as saying it’s just another way of making sure the KD Warriors never happen again like maybe you get a year of that but then you can’t live that way I is that a fair summation I guess I think that’s totally fair I got to be honest like when I was going through this CBA this is one rule where I was like man what are they exactly looking to do here like you know is there a Target you know past team they’re trying to eliminate maybe it’s the Warriors like you’re saying but yeah this one’s a really weird one I’ll be curious to see how it works out cuz you got teams like the Clippers that are so expensive but you know by 2032 they’re not going to have their Stars they currently have they’re another team if you told me they crash in 2029 but they don’t have their picks in 2031 32 what like whatever I’d be like oh they’re going to be horrible for a decade the Clippers yeah in that new arena with all the toilets they might be locked into that fate so here’s the real question and I actually want to ask all of you guys this one but I’ll start with you Jake how many teams do you expect to hit this at second apron essentially it’s three out of five years how many teams do you think will actually do this to where their pick ends up getting locked as the end of the first round well I mean I mean we’re talking like projecting out several years there but I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s probably four four or five teams that end up doing that uh you know just cuz we’re talking about like this is a weird period we’re in where teams have contracts from the old CBA right right and they’re trying to adjust to this new one and I think teams are more expensive in certain spots than they would be had they known this CBA was coming Denver one of them yeah I think so I mean Minnesota too right yeah I mean that’s a whole another conversation but I think some of Tim Connelly’s uh you know he was a he was a pay guys early kind of guy and get them locked up I don’t think that’s as good of a strategy under this CBA totally personally so yeah I would say there will be a handful that I think will do it and I’ll be curious to see the teams that do what do you think well I mean you got like the Clippers and Suns who are like pretty much locked into it the next couple years they’re not locked into it I mean they built a team to be locked like they kind of want to be locked into it plan a is definitely plan a is getting locked into it the suns are like can we also get LeBron what does everyone yeah Timberwolves are a big one to watch too I think I think so right like do they just try to salary dump towns or something you know what though Tim Conley did the perfect thing one year one year extension you Max that team out you tell the ownership we’re fine but they’re in a different position cuz I mean the Lakers and the suns are almost in almost these like bloated carcass kind of things right but Lakers won’t be in it the Wolves no money not the Lakers no but but the wolves are on the precipice of something but also they just got their ass kicked and then you know they like people like to describe them as a young team not necessarily especially with Mike Conley being a key piece so you know one-year deal not a fun year I think for to be in Tim shoes like which direction do you do you double down do you stick with it yeah it depends on how you look at it if you’re if I’m Tim I’m looking at this as like I’ve got one more year on this job and then I’ve got another one full steam ahead it’s like when Daryl M has done this twice now where you just max out everything you can and then as soon as the bills do you’re like I’m out of here got a new job over here I mean you can make the argument that’s the right way to go about it if you have a contender and if you have like nuggets do as good of a team as they have you have this starting five like you can make the argument that riding this out and going into the second apron with this team is the best choice you can make that case you can the one thing I’ll say is in an A Move designed to create parody I just think you’re [ __ ] if you hit this not immediately it will take time but there will be a time where a Clippers or nuggets or a Timberwolves you talk about three teams that you’re like can you can they Sur survive disaster none of those teams can and I just think that I don’t I think it’s going to be one or two teams total honestly I think everyone’s going to avoid this thing but there’s going to be one or two teams that come and they are going to have the worst decade not 3 four years it’s going to be five six seven years before they of irrelevant basketball you may have hit on the biggest Factor though which is just how any given GM feels about their job and their future just you know what I mean like am I going to be here in x amount of years e it who cares about five years from now so like if you’re Calvin booth for example got yic like are you really too worried about next decade I don’t know I don’t know there are a lot of GMS that have made those moves as their last move to all in move this that and it’s like where we go so Tim Conley Oney year deal definitely thought about it when I saw it come through oh one year hell yeah that’s the only if I’m Tim I’m just doing oneyear deals until I know if it’s A-Rod owning the team or not yeah that’s probably true that’s probably Fair pry man so we set the deal on the second tax apron that’s what we’re dealing with now on the other side let’s talk about kcp cuz he’s the guy that triggers this second apron I mean there’s a couple different ways but he’s the main reason you trigger trigger the second apron and why resigning him is such a tricky proposition Underdog fantasy is the easiest place to play fantasy sports they have a pick a now live for the NBA Finals you can create entries with up to eight picks and Underdog they’ll automatically double Flex entry so you can miss up the two picks and still win your entry with more picks to make and extra ways to win the excitement is higher than ever the best part you can win up to 325 times your original amount you can use a special on flexed entries that have six or more picks so check out there pick eight can’t wait to use it during the NBA Finals don’t miss your chance to try it before it’s gone Underdog fantasy also offering an NBA pick him special for game two of the 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and and conditions apply back here segment three of gmvr nuggets podcast want to remind you guys if you want to watch the finals here come watch it at the dmvr bar we’re going to have it on with game sound uh tomorrow night and every for uh the finals and we have good drink specials 4 to six is happy hour but guess what 8 to 10 is happy hour you could pregame with happy hour and postgame with happy hour at the dmvr bar you just got to stick around long enough you just got to stick around long enough you get two happy hours will be sitting at a table by himself Sweating Bullets a one topper he’s going to be louder drinking beer watching the Celtics absolutely locked in everyone’s welcome to join you just can’t talk to me at for just look at them and take pictures also chicken tenders and Fries 12 bucks really good deals here at the dmvr bar come watch it here uh Boo the Celtics all right kcp or not to kcp that is the question if yes you could sign your draft picks you could sign veteran minimums and you can trade one of but not both of Zeke Naji or Reggie Jackson and bring back players making their salaries or less and that’s it cuz with kcp you’re no questions ask a second apron team yeah pretty much I mean you could trade Zeke naagi and Reggie Jackson it would just have to be in a separate de you couldn’t trade them together mean yeah yeah you could get really creative and maybe get under if you just did a straight salary dump of Zeke Nagi if you went into the season with 14 players instead of 15 you might be able to stay right under but uh I think we’re pretty safe to say if kcp is back they’re going to be a second apron team one thing though why not why not go with 14 players cuz in my mind this year they went with like 12 I mean well that’s the other think it’s where the end of bench players are Hunter Tyson and you know like you’re you’re 14 but you’re really like 10 guys that have ever played but here’s the thing man kcp is really good and it’s a depth piece and part of me looks at this and goes it what that to me is better than a lot of the options trading even if you just traded Zeke Naji sometimes you do it like I know I know Calvin Booth would get killed for signing Zeke to a contract extension and then trading him for nothing probably attaching something not only that but attaching something but at the end of the day do you you want kcp and all of the other guys kind of moving up a spot or not and I look at it and I just go to me of all the reasonable things that seem to be possible that one by far seems like the one that most wins them a title next year totally and especially because if he leaves it’s not like there’s a clear Avenue to get a player right that’s replacing him or trying to replace him you can’t if he leaves you’re bumping up everybody on the roster you know maybe you can get a a depth piece but that guy is not coming anywhere close to replicating the production kcp gives you where I’m at is they kind of have to bring them back they’re backed into a corner a little bit yes they’ll go into the second apron but I have a real hard time talking myself into the placing the Nuggets among the top Championship contenders next year if it’s Christian Brown in the start in the starting lineup just a tough place for me to get to to me it’s less about Brown the starting lineup to me it’s more about you’re just one less player playable player and no matter who we’re going to get to some other options here but the type of guy you’re bringing in to me is less than kcb so you’re just inherently a lesser team so where I’m at is you’ve got to bring him back even if it means only 14 roster spots and getting rid of two Ro two guys for nothing yeah yeah yeah I the other thing too is while I don’t think any front office is going to sit there and share their secrets during exit interviews I do think Calvin Booth is is a fairly honest fella in such an environment and when w asked that question about second apron I I think Calvin nearly Shrugged it off if they have to they will I get the sense they’re prepared to kcp is really important man and I know people have brought up some good counters about how close the difference between kcp shooting and Christian Brown shooting statistically maybe not as as drastic as it might sound in the most recent year but the way I look at it is that this current starting fight is guarded a certain way and the spacing is optimal for Murray and yic to do their thing and I think that can start changing more quickly than people realize once you start replacing either one of kcp or Michael Porter Jr so if you don’t bring kcp back if he just goes if he walks your options then become to sign veteran minimum deals and draft picks that’s always available to you you’re going to have a tax player taxpayer mle how much is that worth that is worth a first year salary of about5 .3 million it’s not that much money so you’re talking about there’s not that many great players that you’re going to get for around that value although you never know I mean that’s what Reggie Jackson was on right you can sign a Reggie Jackson caliber player more more likely and then you talked here about being able to sign and trade kcp even for nothing but it would give you a traded player exception that you could later on use so but the point the larger Point here is that the only benefit you get out of that not being the tech the second apron team is the Restriction with the draft pick you know triggers that clock but also it gives you an ml that’s basically it yeah and I think you know there’s so much you have to take into account here one thing I didn’t point out in that report of mine but that you really have to think about is is if kcp walks and Christian Brown goes in the starting lineup well that’s just going to raise his price o good next summer great so Brown’s he at that point yep he’s extension eligible next summer and if you were to just take his stats and say great point think of this if you were to say you know he has a similar year with 20 minutes per game Off the Bench next year or if he starts 80 games cuz he’s been really healthy and he does the similar per 36 numbers but now it’s in a larger sample of minutes and games well now you’re talking about I don’t know how many more million dollars for Christian Brown next summer but that’s a really big one you have to think about because that’s coming next summer for both him and pton Watson if they want an extension and so kcp comes back you don’t get that taxpayer mle you’re not able to combine salaries in a trade uh you might face some draft pick penalties down the line although I think they’d be able to get under that right uh there’s arguments to be had for both sides uh where do you fall on it though I think I think right now I would I would want kcp back just because I think there is a significant off offensive drop off between him and Christian Brown uh they’re similar levels of defensive player but they do different types of defense well different players they guard well uh I think you need kcp back uh to have a really strong shot at a title they could still win it without him don’t get me wrong but they would need a lot of guys to step up Jamal Murray Michael Porter and at least two bench guys or something just because everybody moves up one of the sins and we’ve talked about this a lot is that your starting five doesn’t necessarily mean it has to be your every five and I think that’s what Denver got into this a problem they got into this year is you need kcp cuz he provides you probably your most versatile starting five lineup but it’s also the best for the most types of lineups but not all and I think Denver didn’t experiment enough this year with other configurations somebody put it on Twitter the other day Christian Brown only 22 minutes I think with the starting five last year something insane you look at stuff like that and you go yeah that’s not a lineup That should have only played 22 minutes that’s one that should have been one of your secondary go-to closing lineups and they just never saw it totally I mean total we could spend two hours on that yeah that’s win the music right there let’s go to the next one on here so those are your two options with kcp the more I look at those the more I look at and go mle whatever and I’m with you the bigger thing is this is the first year of the second apron it sucks to be the team that goes into it the first year because it does feel a little almost Reckless but I think and and you worry about the future and what happens down the road but it seems to me that I would agree with you Denver could it’s three out of five basically if you trigger this first one Denver can dip below that later they can kind of worry about that later but you’re in a wide open window right now don’t allow that to close Keep It Wide Open and risk and take on the risk what do you think about you know I don’t know what the contract kcp is going to get or what type of offers he could get from another team what do you think about the chances of Denver getting like a little cute with it or creative and either giving him a contract that like they plan to just trade you know a couple years from now maybe you sign them to like a longer term deal at a lower dollar amount like what do you think that could potentially look like in terms of the offers he could get and what Denver could get yeah I mean we saw it last year with Bruce brown right that was a contract that Indiana intended to trade I think as soon as they signed him I don’t think Denver would necessarily be looking to trade him as soon as they signed KP but I agree with you that you know if we’re to resign kcp let’s say 3 years or something okay now we’re keeping Christian Brown’s price down for a year okay now it’s next summer Christian Brown looks a step ahead of where he is right now okay now we can trade kcp we have Christian Brown on a cheaper extension timing all works out a little better here let’s move kcp for a backup point guard or a backup Wing somebody that can really help us I think that’s definitely in the cards uh and I think it is something you have to think about when you look at your roster is how flexible are we to make trades uh and Denver is really topheavy and really bottom heavy as far as money numbers so yeah uh having an contract like that as much as it sounds kind of gross to be like yeah oh we’re going to sign you and trade you later like it is beneficial to have those on your board I just think that’s something the nuggets have to think about with this contract because kcp he’s 30 years old he’s got a ton of miles on on him he’s been in the league since he was 20 he’s played you know 70 plus games in pretty much every season and postseasons you know he’s got a lot of miles on them and I wonder you one other thing that was interesting about this new CBA it used to be you could only sign guys on fiveyear deals for the max now you can sign guys to five-year deals can you sign anybody can you do a like a like a lowlevel player for five years with five million well this is mostly referring to like rookie contract extensions oh that was mostly rookie contract all right so yeah so like if you remember remember uh Tim Connelly tried giving Kenneth fared a 5-year extension way back in the day uh and that got pushed back to four years after a call with the league office I think he come a long way he but uh that type of thing is now legal so they could have given Kenneth Reed that contract under this really a Visionary but I mean fiveyear stuff is mostly reserved to your own guys uh you know signing them uh and extending them so but I was just wondering about like with kcp when you were talking about an extra year it does see seem like that would be one thing you could do is put a throw a player option on the last end of a year give him an extra year and it’s like yeah that other team offered you more over three but this gives you the benefit of the you get out more years at a lower dollar amount could give him security but also more tradable right yeah the other thing I don’t think he’ll go for this but the other thing I thought of as I was writing that was I wonder how much they’d have to offer kcp to just take a one-year deal oh yeah like could they offer like a really fat like 28 million would he take to 8 million for a year uh they can give him that and then just say hey we’re going to bring you back for a year uh and we’re trying to go with Christian Brown next year but uh maybe there’s a number that he’d be willing to do that interesting it could even be a one plus one and then if you look at it as just cap expiring cap space following year too y um last one here before we take our last break but vaco chancha you had a very interesting note I just want to hit it quickly he has a team option the team can control it and pick it up but you highlight that it’s actually smarter if they decline it and sign him and it’s what you expect to do and it’s actually what I expected them to do as well him to be back most likely but actually be let go first yeah so first off I don’t think they would have kept him this whole last year if they didn’t want him on the roster next year personally but you know speaking strictly from a financial perspective when vacco originally signed his current deal it was under a minimum salary scale at that time that he’s bound to so VL CO’s minimum for this upcoming year is actually below the minimum for a player of his experience and so it gets pretty complicated with the math but basically what you can do is you can opt him out if you want to bring him back you can sign him to a one-year minimum it gives him a little more money it saves the Nuggets money cap spacewise and it would save uh the cronies money luxury tax wise as well so it’s kind of a a win-win as long as there’s not another random team that comes in and SW swoops him out of there which maybe could happen if he just balls out at the Olympics things to consider it is a showcase he has actually pretty good with Team Slovenia but I think most likely coming off an injur he’s going to be a minimum guy and maybe he just likes Luca there’s always a chance that it’s like you know what I’ll do the same it’s all the same I’ll just go to Dallas and be with my buddy Luca and speak Slovenian the whole time and it would be that right like either Denver’s familiarity with just what it’s like to have him as a guy who works hard works out doesn’t cause problems like cokic or Luca just explaining to Dallas do this for me cuz I said so those would be the two paths I think I want I really want blacko back and I actually think he’s a player so I the part of me is like for a vet minimum he’s the type of guy that I think can be I think he’s a Justin holiday yeah priority number two in the offseason for me actually priority number two black I’m just kidding but he’s in consideration all right let’s take a break on the other side three scenarios for you to consider that kind of highlight the various options Denver has with kcp without and then with a major trade we’ll go through all three of those Miller Light Miller time here the dmvr Nuggets podcast yeah right now have you not checked the clock Miller Light the best light beer out there a lot of light beers they just they don’t taste good they don’t taste like beer they taste like water Miller Light is not one of those great tasting only 96 calories per 12 oz pick some up today it’s a light beer that tastes like beer less filling 96 calories the original light beer since 1975 that’s how long millerite has been around Miller Light keep it simple undebatable quality great taste like I said 96 calories it’s the original light beer A lot’s changed over the years one thing that hasn’t is the Great Taste of Miller Light millerite has more of the taste you want less of the stuff you don’t the original light beer still the best one today enjoy the great taste of Miller Light tastes like Miller time to get Miller Light delivered right to your door you don’t even have to leave your house you can visit millerlite.com dnvr Miller light. / dnvr where you can find it pretty much anywhere that sells beer celebrate responsibly Miller Brun Company Milwaukee Wisconsin 96 calories per 12 O last night’s hail storm or last week’s hail storm I should say was the most damaging since 2017 I’m I’m bummed I missed this the hail storm that did a lot of damage the most damaging one since 2017 it’s not like me not being here didn’t make it not happen I just would I I like to see a storm well I’d be bummed if that happened and Denver did not have red hawk Roofing but you do Denver’s best roofers are here if you were affected they want to take care of you they offer a free consultation so if you need help with the hail red hog Roofing has your back and it doesn’t have to be hail related damage these are just the best roofers in the business maybe quality materials Decades of experience quick response time best estimators and contractors huge dmvr supporters We There are guys man they’re also nuggets guys you might be able to tell by looking at that logo free in-depth photo reports for all inspections supporting your local teams means also supporting local businesses like red HW Roofing if you are looking for a new roof over your home or business be sure to check out our guys at Red Haw Roofing redhaw roofing.com or call 72-77 18921 be sure to tell them that we Cent by the way these guys will help you with the insurance claim I know a lot of people don’t realize like I got to call my insurance a lot of time the roofers that’s what they do they have people that just deal with your insurance you connect them and then they’ll get it for you might not have to pay anything out of pocket uh so check them out they’re homies all right three scenarios that you laid out here for us and we want to go through all of them these were your ideas you kind of drummed them up the very first one you have I like it’s called the you called it the runit back scenario walk us through what the runit back scenario entails yeah so this one is Denver being a second apron team uh and they’re basically adding one player to their rotation uh that player is Jan Tate who I love him by the way yeah he’s been uh he’s been I think this might be my third straight offseason preview including him is he one of your guys he’s the new Troy Brown Jr was the Robert Covington yeah so uh but he’s he’s a smart Wing player I’s gonna like this guy too much I hate to say it but this guy former nugget summer leager Jan Tate you had Jan Tate who plays I like him I will say him or P he’s going to definitely be Tate yep and so it’s basically just swapping Zeke out for him uh there was some reports about Jon Tater on the trade deadline uh Dallas was looking at him uh but the Rockets turned down two second rounders for him at that time uh they didn’t have Zeke and so so then basically after that you just bring back kcp uh you draft a player I said filipowski I don’t know if he’ll be there I’m not the biggest draft guy I said in the report you can replace him with your favorite guy sure sure uh and then Justin holiday you bring him back on a one-year minimum so if you’re to do that I mean if you look at that there you know holiday starting holiday played playoff minutes last year and he wouldn’t even really be projected to be in your top you know nine players or whatever so in thei second string in theory it gives you one more guy you can play and Trust in the playoffs and I think around the trade deadline you can maybe look at moving Reggie Jackson for someone that fits better if you want to do that I I kind of think Jackson’s gone just because I think they want to see pick it I I almost think that you would the the team views it as you’d rather pick it play and fail so we could trade him at the deadline or make a move at the deadline to bring in a point guard than to let Reggie do that and then not know because I think they know what Reggie is in the playoffs in the regular season everything they know that already totally so then you have to do pretty much two separate salary dumps potentially this summer Reggie and Zeke Jake do do you think that Zeke is a straight salary dump or can you maybe talk yourself into him if you’re a other team well you know kind of what I say in in that preview is I think any team taking on Zeke Nagi even the ones that like him they’re probably looking for a second round pick to come with him I agree or late first at least and that’s before you even talk about whatever assets they might need to give you a player back uh so like for example that’s why I had them trading three second rounders with Zeke for Jon Tate so uh yeah I mean I think at this point he’s he’s pretty much like a not a super negative just because his deals declining slight negative yeah a slight negative that’s how I’d say it but is he a redraft candidate Adam 100% man 100% I can talk you into Zeke Nagi if you want me to if you ask like he is done in col in Denver I athletic I think there is no chance where as you mentioned maybe he does come back in some of these configurations there’s no way I think he has a good next year next year for the Nuggets but I do think there’s a team out there with a clean slate that puts him in a spot I here’s what IO here’s what I think about zji I just think he was I think that it he was given a very tough path maybe the toughest path for him specifically and he obviously did as bad as possible in that path but I I could talk myself into him yeah of course I could talk myself into him but I still think you’re paying some second rounders this is of your three scenarios I love this one it’s more or less run it back and I and it even if you got rid of Jackson if I just added one other piece on there where you got rid of Jackson and I don’t know you add one other vet minimum guy or something like that that’s the scenario where I can really talk myself into because I would like to look at you get more minutes out of wats pton Watson you probably get more minutes out of Julian St you certainly if you trade Reggie get more minutes out of Jaylen picket and I think that that would set you up the nice to have stability that you’re going to be a good team probably a top three four playoff team for sure in the west and those young guys are forced to play in a way that’s probably safe safest it’s also the most realistic scenario I think you think it’s the most realistic the run it back scario with kcp sure okay I like that cuz I would you know what nuggets 2025 Champs I’m in look I’ll also say this I am not trying to be dismissive of the team that is the best in the west and earned it and is there but in the same way that you could go I don’t like the Minnesota match up for Denver if everyone’s playing the we got a gear up to beat Team X game every summer and it’s Dallas I actually think you like Denver starting five I don’t think I think talk about the weaknesses Dallas didn’t have to face maybe a monster big man on the inside I think Denver views Aaron Gordon as a at least a decent option for guarding Luca I actually think Denver is Better Built to guard Luca than ant I know one guy is much better than the other but it’s it’s just more about Aaron Gordon’s role so yeah I’m being a little optimistic here but I don’t I think there’s plenty of room for this starting five in the west still man it just I well more than anything even if you think Murray is the same guy that was below his own average for the same guy so even if he just comes back and with the same level of conditioning seriousness whatever he would be better next year assuming he doesn’t get hurt all right let’s go to number two kcp walks Denver loads up so this is a nightmare scenario kcp leaves but Denver retools this way walk us through it yeah so this one I’ll go through this one quick for you guys because there’s a lot going on here uh biggest one is nuggets Twitter favorite Alex Caruso uh would come to Denver he’s been a lot of he’s been in a lot of like you know talk about what people would like a lot of people think you can get away without trading like a pton Watson or Christian Brown for him I don’t buy that you could get him without trading one of them uh and even then I’m actually not even sure if this package I propose quite gets it done uh when I think about what other teams they do not want to get worse under any circumstances ever not too interested in getting better either but they do need shooting and kyp and kuso are kind of very similar players other but kyp is a better offensive shooter like off ball shooter so KP is not in this train oh yeah you’re right he’s not part of the train he just walked he just leaves in free agency right uh yeah that’s tough so you basically you bring in Caruso for Nai and pton Watson and your first rounder uh and then you bring in Cory kissper who in my opinion he’s a little bit little different bit of a skill set but he’s further down the line than Julian strawther but a similar kind of player it’s good comp uh so I think Wasing would kind of be like okay we can take this guy who’s similar but he’s cheaper for longer and Denver they’re kind of like okay this guy’s ready now uh so you bring in kissper you draft a guy uh at number 28 who I think can be sort of a wing player again I wrote C Cameron Christie but feel free to replace him with your favorite Wing player uh bring back DeAndre Jordan and Justin holiday uh and then sign Reggie Bullock on a one-year minimum as a depth piece I’ll tell you what this to me first of all I would be shocked if you trade pton Watson you said it could be Christian Brown or pton Watson if you’re doing the Caruso deal if they did that I think it would be Christian not Payton yeah but all of these moves are not cow moves or I should say none of these moves are cow moves and I think like Reggie Bullock is a good player but he’s also kind of a name like he’s just a guy that has done this your hope is that some of the young guys on your roster can become that like this year he’s not that great that you don’t even think he’d be that so I just think this would this one would shock me if they went anything remote close to this rout right kiss’s an interesting Target I’ve heard Michael Malone really likes kissper and um he’s kind of he kind of gives you kcp on the offensive end yep Caruso on defense KY on off com and and you have one KP real quick the other thing on that one I made a just I forgot to type it in my report but the other last move on that is signing Andre Drummond with the mle everybody I don’t think you can get him on the minimum but you could get him with the mle which kcp leaves you should have access to so Caruso Bullock kissper Chan Char drumond is such a hilarious is weird that’s where you just project Dynasty officially rip this is gone it is completely out of the equation I might just kill myself I I do think this helps highlight though some of the just the what’s not on the table for Denver right everyone wants to Invision getting ready R of players XYZ for blatant upgrades and I don’t like keeping the starting five together probably has more value than but that’s just how I feel the last one is the most interesting even though I think it’s not at all realistic but it is interesting for a lot of reasons the overreaction and this is the Michael Porter Jr trade MH yeah so this one I agree with you uh probably not very likely I might be the biggest mpj supporter after Brendan vote in the city so uh but in the case where they did look to move him this was a deal that I thought made sense for all teams involved uh basically it’s Denver gets Bruce Brown from Toronto and they get Robert Williams from Portland uh as might actually have the biggest um fan agreement out of all the scenarios you think I mean I’m kind of being a little phous but Bruce Brown for Michael Porter after that playoff series and there’s a couple other things happen in there in that three three team trade but I won’t go through it all that’s the basic gist of it uh nuggets draft a wing in the draft uh they trade Zeke Naji as a straightup salary dump and they sign cavius Caldwell Pope to a three-year deal uh I believe I have the cap sheet in the document but I believe in this scenario where they only have 14 players they do stay under the second apron uh so they avoid some of the penalties there this one maybe is more enticing if Robert Williams and yic play together I guess because that would like if you could theoretically have a lineup that featured some of that it’d be nice to get off of mpj’s injury proness just to get Robert Williams of course this one seems the most you called it the overreaction this one does seem like the most um like what are we doing cuz we changed a lot but are we better kind of move that that would be a little bit wild but why I wanted to bring it up was actually for your Michael Porter notes here because they’re just as import as interesting to me as anything you highlight in here first of all how efficient he has been as a scorer and in particular in fourth quarter in tight games we we think of mar and yic as these two phenomenally clutch guys but you have some stats in here that his effective field goal percentage in fourth quarters places him in the 998th percentile yic in The 91st percentile Murray in the 56th uh but Michael Porter 98th why volume I assume right no with good I mean decent volume but we’ll talk about volume in a second but why is this so important to you and so meaningful well I think I think to a degree in the regular season in the NBA you’re kind of going through the motions uh but when it gets to the fourth quarter in the regular season that’s when things tighten up a little bit whereas the playoffs it’s a little bit tighter all game right so I think fourth quarter numbers can be a little bit more enlightening about who your team is who your certain players are uh and how they perform Under Pressure uh and I think mpj has shown over the past two seasons uh that he performs really strong Under Pressure uh and you know I’m sure you’ll talk about some of those other things in there but I think Denver it would be beneficial if you have Michael Porter on a Max contract let’s see what it looks like to utilize him at his full value uh because you know as it stands now he’s an incredible offensive weapon he’s not a three-level scorer by any means but I think they can do a little more to see what they can unlock I actually think this to me is number two reason Denver did not win a title this year behind Jamal Murray and and actually maybe number three because I think fatigue the way they did the rotation throughout the year but number three to me is I do wonder if it got stale and the number one area it got too stale was Michael Porter just being a a a we call him a third option but he’s really like a 3abc option like and they never run him off screens they never involve him this way and I think for me you build layers you should like you should be growing at your identity as you go and Denver seems to be so content or Michael Malone I should say seems so content to have him in the corner and I think what you’re highlighting here is he’s more than that and if Denver only goingon to keep him that you’re actually wasting one of your best assets oh there’s there’s so much more to to Mel Porter than we’ve seen and mean number one on the priority list like heading into training camp next year is you’ve just got to have some more creativity within the offense and using him in different ways and in different lineups and um it’s just such an easy Avenue to to look at and go okay maybe there’s something to explore there yeah I and I also think there are a couple of points about just how Porter as is that I think sometimes me some people Miss in terms of value like I don’t think people realize how difficult it is to be that efficient in a role where you’re actually not that involved right where you’re D spending a lot of the game waiting a lot of the game watching more often than not yeah man and then it’s like hey hit this big shot please you know and that is not an easy role man I I think being a third option is is I I think a lot about like Chris Bosch and Miami I know they’re way different players but everyone was like what is this guy now their first year and it’s like man he’s trying to figure it out because it’s a tight RPP walk and I don’t think people realize two things about Porter how hard it is to stand and weight and then hit the shots to the extent he does um and secondly the spacing man when you look at all the numbers of like the guys in the playoffs before the final four games it was like Porter and Dante dant chenzo and they were like on another level from everyone else and even within that if you look at the splits of how many of Dante shots were wide open versus Porter I know it feels like Porter misses a lot of wide open ones he’s also rarely wi he is guarded very very very tightly and you trade for Bruce Brown and it’s Bruce Brown next to Aaron Gordon I’m telling you man that spacing it’s going to look a lot different than people think a lot different and there’s one other piece so I actually think if we think about Porter and why isn’t he more than he is I think there’s three people that are most uh to blame for this one of them is Porter I think he could have a better handle he probably could have a better feel for the game there’s different things that you could point to where it’s like yeah he’s such a unique player unbalanced in his skill set in a lot of ways I think number two is Michael Malone because I don’t think Michael Malone could easily work things into the offense that they have never even tried to work in which use him the way teams use a Klay Thompson or even a Kyrie Irving in that when they beat Minnesota part of how they used him was running around off of screens and different things I think Denver could use Michael Porter more just moving the help around when he’s mostly a stagnant shooter but I think the third one is Jamal Murray and Jamal Murray has been a tough player to play alongside you know in terms of being the the third guy there’s been an uncomfortable third guy scenario for Denver in the Marie era and one of the stats you highlight here is what you call freeze out rate and I love this stat you looked at guys who were on Pace for 20 points so 15 points through three quarters and how many guys had at least 25 such games Jamal Murray was on that list of all those guys he got frozen out the fewest number of what how did you quantify this the fewest number of attempts in fourth quarters yeah so if if you went into the fourth quarter with at least 15 points how many times of those fourth quarters over the season did you get only one or zero field goal attempts this is an incredible stat it really is and it’s there’s a little noise behind it of course uh and it’s small sample size 29 games but basically when you looked at it Jamal Murray predictably because of the Twan game he was only Frozen out like 3% of the time uh and Michael Porter Jr was up at like 38% I think which highest of anybody yes it was the highest in the NBA uh out of like a 70 player sample size I think and so yeah I mean while there is noise behind it I also think there is a little bit of substance there uh about how you can involve mpj and I pointed out in that report a lot of people will combat that and say well he can’t dribble he can’t create for himself fa and I compared him to players who have a similar percent of their baskets assisted and those players freeze out rates right the only one that was higher than him out of that group was Nas Reed and it was on a pretty small sample size uh and so I I think there’s some substance behind it yeah his number is ABS is actually pretty high you do see like Keegan Murray Dante D venzo Klay Thompson there are guys to be compared you know in that list and you can look at the numbers but it’s like kind of what Porter is he’s in what he is but he’s also at the Double percentage twice as frequent where he’s going to get zero or one shots and I think that more than anything I don’t I think you’re right that there’s noise but this matches what we watch of this team fourth quarter you become onedimensional and the best Dimension there is in all of basketball a title one you a title but I do think that you run into a team like Minnesota who’s designed specifically for that one thing we’re designed to stop the two-man game well but we’re vulnerable to any other other thing and Denver had no other thing and I think that’s where you get to this freeze out rate being meaningful yep strong agree and like we always talk it’s an easy joke about how Porter gets hot early and then oh he’s not going to finish with 25 points right I don’t think that is all on Porter but again it’s a two-way street right like he there’s plenty just is why the Lakers series to me I know the Lakers were straight up horrendous just dog water but Porter that fourth quarter we have never seen him say like hey man give me the ball or like I’m coming to get it like I’m taking this off the dribble long to he’s good soldier it in this moment um but that was the most he’s ever looked like oh no one’s doing it all right I’ll do it that fourth quarter was a game three maybe I want to say he was he looked a way I’ve never seen him look before and and I just wonder is there more that you can tap into is is can that be a more of his Baseline than it feels like um any final thoughts on these scenarios I mean you I encourage everybody to check out the report because it’s very detailed there’s a lot in there even stuff we didn’t talk about like mle candidates veteran minimum candidates and some things so you can kind of look at the list we didn’t go over everything but we went over I think the big stuff is there anything else that you think is pertinent information just the last two things I would say is uh Jamal Murray he’s extension eligible starting July 1st uh I think it’s four years 208 million up to 208 million uh Aaron Gordon he’ll be extension eligible in September I think his is four years 149 so two players to keep an eye on uh kind of as we go forward will Denver extend both I’m gonna say no for Murray uh and I’m going to say yes for Gordon no why no for Murray I’m just not convinced the nuggets are going to I don’t know that the nuggets are going to offer that whole thing and I think what is the risk though you lose them for nothing next year yeah the risk is that a team like Toronto comes next year they have to pay quickly and Scotty Barnes so I don’t know that they’ll have the cap space but but he becomes an unrestricted free agent so there’s even a world where he would take less money it would be a lot less money but there’s a world where you could offer him 40 million a year next year and he chooses to go somewhere that’s giving him 35 so definitely a risk and I know last offseason Calvin boo said we uh something along the lines of we expect him to be an all NBA player and he’ll get this big extension that didn’t happen but then there was some of these comments in that end of season press conference I’m just not totally convinced they’ll offer him the full amount yet uh but you do run the risk of uh you know rubbing the agent wrong and the player wrong a little bit uh so it’s always a risk interesting player rubbed me a little wrong though this year I’m not going to lie as we’ve talked about every day on the show let’s get to some super chats here Sasha and if we do lose kcp how realistic is a Alex Caruso trade scenar did that one scenario two I believe oh no yeah that was with Kio every year there’s just like two things that it’s the whole the whole thing cuso whips ass by way I don’t want to sound to so does Lonzo ball I’m here for it let’s go he’s got a new miniscus or something stop man he’s in been Ben simm man he great that’s that’s the dead Place brother High sing with nikolic tearing his ACL could he fall to the nuggets and would they take him this could be an mpj draft situation again just drafting stash I don’t think he’s going to fall that somebody will take him before I also don’t know if Denver would be the team to swoop in and I they might be I don’t know someone could get lucky though man like he’s young that that medical science has changed like the recovery has changed he’s young he could make a full recover I just don’t think he’s falling 28 no he’s not following that far Cedric Exquisite Bruce Brown over Maul Plus mpj in my opinion like in a just just Bruce uh Jake thanks for explaining the new CBA kcp I know for sure will stay wow mark it down guarantee you heard it here first Mavs and 6 PS out of no I don’t think Jamal will be better next season man I’m telling you the fan base has turned ulyses Ventura Kevin Kevin Love or Steven Adams Kevin Love very interesting probably staying in Miami I would think Steven Adams I just don’t know is he hurt is he healthy does anybody know oh yeah I don’t know 55555 is great show fellas loved reading your offseason writing Jake you convinced me that the salty runback is the best path forward what is the salty run back say salty did I misread that read right salty run back is that just the run it back or is that the like yeah I think that’s the run it back that’s the run it back that’s what I’m rooting for I’m less convinced than wind is though I’m a little more nervous at that I you gave me some reassurance saying you think that’s what happens but I don’t know I think we might get the lose kcp and REO retool options oh sick can’t wait to hate life I think I’m just trying to speak it into existence all right let’s do it I think that’s what we’re getting boys and you know what Spurs Dynasty back on I kind of think they have hey Spurs never won two championships in a row a lot of people have been saying that 20 years later we just do the same thing the three the five the seven I’ll take it all right everybody thanks for hanging out with us thanks to Jake check out in the description of this one read the whole thing we’ll see you guys [Music] tomorrow we all sitting like the May
The NBA changed the collective bargaining agreement a year ago and one lever in particular, the 2nd apron, will influence how the Denver Nuggets approach this offseason. Should they re-sign KCP? Well, in doing so, they will likely exceed the 2nd apron. Special guest Jake Coyne joins the show to help explain how the new CBA works and how it will affect the Denver Nuggets’ ability to build around Jamal Murray, Nikola Jokic, and Michael Porter Jr.
Start – 0:00
Philosophy of building a winner – 4:00
What went wrong – 8:20
The 2nd apron – 22:00
Penalties – 24:20
KCP or not KCP – 42:00
Vlatko – 53:15
3 mock offseason scenarios – 58:00
Superchats – 1:18:50
Check out Jake’s offseason preview here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/15kxR5Wr9AV6wKAN4NGYiNodNj_-nW8EA/view
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6 Comments
Vogt re MPJ: "Let's not kid ourselves, we have higher expectations for Jamal".
Then why do we pay MPJ roughly the same salary?
Jokic + Irving >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Jokic + Murray
I do not think we should be afraid of going into the second apron because Booth doesn’t make any trades or acquisitions anyway. Might as well pay KCP and keep the starters together.
Vogt seems like a guy who would call movies, "films"
Zeke is the new Mudiay… not utilized correctly and didn't develop as desired.
Kets be real,keep Mpj with the goid and the bad or get multiple pieces for him for cheaper?Gonna be another letdown if we don't improve bench?