A lot of the focus is one who the 3rd option will be coming into next season. Personally, I don't find this discussion as interesting with all of the balls in the air, but more importantly, I truly believe any 3rd option would end up being undeniable upgrade over Tobi. I'm more interested with who the next Oubre could be this offseason, the cheap signing that can turn into a value contributor. One of the players I have grown to like the more and more I watch is Trendon Watford.
Player Profile
Watford's physical profile is where the intrigue begins for me. He is 6'8" with a 7'2" wingspan at 240 pounds. Position is where the intrigue continues. I'd describe him as an energy big with a handle. But not sure that does it justice. According to play-by-play data, he has played about 50/50 of his time in his career at PF and C. What's interesting is that there was 1 game against the Knicks at the end of the season wit Schroeder out that Watford started at point guard. Still only 23 years old too.
Statistical Profile
I'll start with what will be the biggest gripe of Watford: 3 Point Volume. Despite being a 40% 3 point shooter last 2 years, he has low volume. This year he averaged only 2.9 3PA per 36. It is up from about 2 per 36 last season but I'm not going to make the case he is going to turn into a high volume shooter all of a sudden, though they're encouraging signs.
Just focusing on box score stats, there is intrigue in just about everything else. Per 36 he averages 8 rpg, 3.6 assist per game and 1.8 stocks per game. Digging in further, his shot distribution and %s are even interesting. Nearly 40% of his shot attempts come in "floater" range (3-10 feet), where he is a career 51% from this part of the floor. This is absolutely elite. For reference Luka also shoots 51% in this range Also shoots 70% at the rim. Only 43% of his 2P FGs were assisted, so hes generating most of these looks on his own which is even more impressive.
The tracking data is what most intrigues me from his statistical profile. One of the stats I've been looking at a lot more is player eFG% based on how many dribbles come before their shot attempt. For most players outside high usage star level players, eFG% drops off a cliff for shots that come after more than 1 dribble. For context on the Sixes, Joel and Maxey still maintain an eFG% around or above 50% for shots that come after 1 dribble. As you can imagine, Tobias Harris's eFG% goes into the gutter when ever he starts taking more than 1 dribble (mid-40% eFG%). Similar with basically all other Sixers players too.
What's insane is that Watford's eFG% increases when he takes more than 1 dribble – he shoots in the high 50% eFG%. Almost 60% of his FGA come after more than 1 dribble. As I'll lay out, the eye test backs this up. He is always pushing in transition. Even in halfcourt, he is able to keep his dribble alive. He is pretty shifty for being 240 pounds with the ball in his hands, he overpowers smaller defenders and can beat bigs off the dribble
https://www.nba.com/stats/player/1630570/shots-dash?Season=2023-24&SeasonType=Regular+Season
Transition
Probably Watford's best ability is initiating and finishing in the fast break. The dude just starts going once he gets the rebound and has the footwork and touch to finish off the glass.
Pushing the pace leads to an easy assist in transition
Passing
This is my favorite part of his game. He is a big that has ability to run pick and roll as a ball handler. He rejects the screen, recognizes the help and hits Bridges for the open 3.
Runs PnR again, hits the open cutter from top of the key
Self Creation
Watford is deliberate with the ball, willing to attack mismatches without wasting dribbles (unlike a special someone we became too familiar with)
Takes OG off the dribble, beating him to the rim.
Defense
My inkling was he had to be a bad defender as a "tweener" type but I didn't necessarily find that to be the case in a few games I watched. His agility helps him navigate screens. He doesn't get burned by White below, he "funnels" White towards the help – something that works well with Joel in drop coverage.
Stays with Brunson on the mismatch, is able to contest at the top of Brunsons fade away.
Doesn't leave his feet on the Hart pump fake, stays with him step by step and smothers him on the fade away.
Fit in Philly
While I don't think Waford truly solves 1 glaring issue of the team, I think his diverse skillset gives Nurse a player he can truly mold as Watford continues to develop. I think the low hanging fruit for Watford is giving an option as a small ball 5 that can push the pace in transition, giving a contrast to Joel's play style that compliments Maxey's speed. Having a center that can initiate the break off rebounds can lead to outlet passes and trail 3s for Maxey + whoever the 3rd option is when Joels sits. I also don't think he is truly "small" given his weight and wingspan. But I also think he has small qualities that will mesh well with Joel. I think he would be a pretty good entry passer for Joel for one, he has never played with an offensively skilled big to date in his career, he makes quick decisions and has nice touch on his passes. He also grabs 2 offensive boards per 36 as well. His touch and explosiveness around the rim gives him great cutting potential playing off of Joel. He is capable of hitting open 3s, if he develops into a medium-volume 3 point shooter I think he has strong starting potential in the NBA given that all of his other skills are fairly polished for a big man in the league.
Salary wise, he has only made minimums being an undrafted free agent. I think something along the lines of a 1 + 1 around $5M/year would be fair to him, he'd have the opportunity to outperform that pretty easily and would quadruple his career earnings. He was buried in the rotation due to the Nets incompetence and lack of direction; they had Mikal, Cam Johnson, DFS, Claxton and their rookie draft picks (Wilson and Sharpe). I think he has skills that will be amplified playing with all star teammates and be a swiss army knife bench piece. I admittedly am a sucker for wings and bigs with handles, I think its an underrated skill that ends up separating players that develop into higher end offensive players. I think he has interesting enough tools that can help him turn into a solid 7th-8th man.
by Traditional_Cell_248
6 Comments
This dude killed it for my fantasy team in Portland when he was forced into a starter role due to injuries a couple years ago. So I agree
I follow the blazers closely (my second team) and I was surprised when Wartford was let go. Reminded me of a slightly more agile Kyle Anderson. That said, he entered the league during the blazers rebuilding years, so I think it’s difficult to assess his playability in the playoffs, especially on the defensive end. Would be a solid 9th-10th man off the bench in the regular season.
Just watched a highlight and woof, that jumper is slow getting up and not pretty. Explains the low volume. Based on the stats about floaters, it seems like he has a shooter’s eye, if you can get his footwork better and a quicker release he could be a good player.
It’s a highlight tape though and I haven’t seen him play, so I can’t comment on the rest.
Now this is the kind of shit I come here for. Love it
It’s hard to trust those numbers, especially the eFG% off of multiple dribbles. Most of his attempts are likely garbage time, and he’s only played for teams that are far down in the NBA basement right now, so all of their minutes are pretty much already garbage time. Even so, we’re talking maybe an attempt or two a game for shots of that variety.
Most of the things on this list that you’d be hoping are real skills and not statistical noise from Watford are things Batum is already really good at. I’d rather focus on convincing him to run it back.
That said, if we strike out a bunch in FA, you could sign worse minimum deals I suppose.
I like Watford and thought he was pretty solid with the Blazers. The only thing is if he plays small ball 5 that means we’ll probably need to let go of Paul Reed since there would be too much overlap (I don’t mind this though I’m not overly attached to Paul Reed). Definitely would prefer taking a flier on a guy like this though instead of another small guard.