Obi Toppin free agency preview: What the Indiana Pacers have to decide on with the young forward

Obi Toppin free agency preview: What the Indiana Pacers have to decide on with the young forward

Obi toppen is a free agent for the Pacers this summer how should the Pacers push towards a resolution in free agency there what topend might be thinking about how restricted fre agency matters predictions we get to all of it today on the lockon Pacers podcast you are locked on Pacers your daily Indiana Pacers podcast part of the locked on podcast Network your Team every day what up y’all happy Monday hope you had a great weekend and welcome into another edition of the lockon Pacers podcast where we of course talk about the Indiana Pacers as always my name’s Tony East I cover the team for forbs and Si and today my fading voice will do my best to talk to you about Obi toppen in his upcoming free agency period the second best free agent for the Pacers this summer behind Pascal yakam and to me worth an entire podcast discussing there’s some interesting Dynamics here for the short-term and long-term of the Pacers toppen himself and what he might be thinking about interesting rules it’s all very fascinating Chad bu Canan talked about it out a Z’s interview we’re gonna talk about it today as we’ve done for a lot of the stuff the pros the cons predictions the machinations all the rules you need to know the dorer that makes it all possible and at the end I’ll tell you what I expect is the wrong word think right now the leading favorite I don’t know is what I will guess will happen when free agency actually opens one day after the finals great Finals game two Mavs almost make that comeback 20- Celtics uh let’s talk Obie toppen who’s a free agent Pacers traded for him last summer and I think it’s very important to note that he’s only been with the team for one year and looking back on kind of how that year went because coming into the year the talk was about hey this guy’s really good in transition in the open floor he’s going to pair well with how the Pacers play because of that he’s going to fit well with Halbert let’s start the season starting Obi toppin so that his minutes with Tyrese Halbert are maximized and all season I said they’ve got to try to keep them together because Obi is way less valuable not playing with Tyrese Halbert and they need to stick them together and then toen got better on the glass became a reliable if not good three-point shooter 40% in the regular season spectacular held it to above League average in the playoffs that’s great that changed his game he ends up pairing very well with TJ mccon his game evolves in a way that doesn’t require him to be paired with Tyrese hton that doesn’t require him to only be in the open floor to be effective and he just fit very well in this random style runaround High Tempo Pacers offense in a way that means they’re not required to consider Obi top in a very specific Niche type of player and inste can think of him as a good fitting talented offensive backup power forward and that’s why I thought chabby Kenan talking about top in season and how effective he was uh was very telling and as for agency Chad B Kenn if you haven’t heard it said very happy with the fit he seems to be happy here as well would like to continue the relationship it’s all part of the business when you get into a contract situation but really happy with Obi as a Pacer so what’s going on here Obi toppen is entering free agency most no not most likely almost certainly restricted free agency specifically and that’s going to matter a lot so I’m going to break down a little bit of how that works and why it matters and then it’ll probably get brought up in basically every segment the rest of the way so the difference between after finish a rookie scale deal and in certain situations after your first contract depending on how long it is you can go into restricted free agency to do so your team that you were just on has to send submit a qualifying offer to you uh and a qualifying offer is a one-year deal at a predetermined number based on a number of factors and that is an actual contract offer but the the qualifying offer to a player being made gets them into restricted free agency so toppen well there’s some dorker here that he did not meet starter criteria it doesn’t really matter why for the sake of this discussion but his qualifying offer is for one year do s.744 million do so that’s low right Obi toppin is worth more than that per year for a while I thought huh I wonder if he would take the qualifying offer but then he played well and his qualifying offer went down because he didn’t make starter criteria now it’s a different discussion but if the Pacers make that offer to topen which he’s worth that I am almost certain that they will he enters restricted free agency they can submit him a qualifying offer the first day after the finals end and they can do it until June 29th which is after the draft and if he’s offered toen becomes a restricted free agent if it’s not offered he goes in an unrestricted free agency an unrestricted free agent can just sign on a team and they will be on that team a restricted free agent can sign with any team but their team that submitted them a qualifying offer gets something called the right of first refusal which is always interchangeably used as match rights I do that everybody does that which means if Obby toppen as a restricted free agent signs a three-year $50 million deal with some other team the Pacers could say nope we want you on that contract on our team and so they have to have the exact same structure everything options trade bonuses all the nonsense that teams can put in there but Obi toin would be on the Pacers which is relevant because if you make a player restricted free agent in theory if you’re willing to spend unlimited money on them you are guaranteed to keep them in some way for at least a year because of that qualifying offer so all that to say that means no matter what happens this summer should the Pacers have unlimited funds they were willing to spend an Obi to and they can keep them right they can keep them and so that gives them a good chance if they want to have him on their team uh have him back and that gives top and less options because teams are less likely to want to use their cap space on restricted free agent who they could not get anyway the restricted free agency process takes multiple days and your cap space or spending on whatever exception is tied up for that time you can’t use it on something else so it’s very interesting restrictive fore agency see not very good for a player at toppin level which we’ll get to as we continue but that’s a pro for the Pacers not necessarily a pro for toppen so that’s how this process can work and what usually happens with guys in this situation is the negotiations happen uh earlier on the earlier side with their own team we’ll get into y later but I think that is also kind of relevant so let’s cut through the pros and cons once again to see what it does and doesn’t make sense for the Pacers with top an interesting player had so so many different roles last year starting four backup four in the playoffs he was the backup five and the backup four and sometimes even whatever position you’d call him in those lineups with sakam and Turner but could fit in so many different groups filled all those roles pretty well right it’s not like I saw him in one of those lineups and was like they can’t do that they can’t have Obie out there so the pros are he’s 26 just turned 26 in March right so even on a four-year deal he’s not 30 till the end of it still getting better clearly only four years in the league so he’s young and good there there’s not much else to say on a player that you’d want at that position if they’re young and good they have some value as a power forward and OB be topping is Young and OB be topping is good and you know that’s a big part of keeping them and a part of what we talked about with all these contract things with the pros it always sounds so stupid but having a good player especially one who’s on your age Timeline under contract is usually good for lots of reasons especially if it’s an affordable one like could be the case here because of restricted free agency and the other Pros going into free agency for the Pacers is they can walk in and go we we know it we can guarantee it by the rules that we’ll have the Guyer team next year unless they don’t have a limited budget which whatever uh you get what I’m saying that makes them more confident that makes negotiations easier saying hey we want to keep you around and we know we can if things go our way right it’s so easy for this to settle when the the parameters heading in are the GM saying on the record they would like to continue their relationship right Chad B Canan said that Obby top and was everything that they hoped he would be and on the court he blossomed as the year grew on they Envision him being a fit with a team that played fast he was exactly that right very easy to see why that kind of player would return to the Pacers toppen is in an interesting spot what does he want he’s 26 he’s on a good team he’s playing 20 minutes a game what would be important to him well I think a lot of what would be important to him it’s what he’s got right now which is why another Pro of the situation is they’re kind of a good natural fit for each other in terms of and need not perfect which is very important and we’ll get to in the next segment but kind of and I think that matters quite a bit in this too so all the pros are very obvious the setup on why this could end up happening is very obvious and yet the cons list is kind of long and I don’t mean that the cons list is long to say there’s more reasons than not to keep Obi toppin because the biggest thing in free agency or in whatever mechanism of adding a player is if they’re good and they want to be on your team and they fit what you’re doing you should get them you should keep them on your team there are just a lot of considerations with toppen and they’re going to they’re not Pros so I put them in the second segment they’re not all cons either it’s just they’re masquerading in there for the sake of this discussion and we should get to all those because this leads to a much deeper discussion about what this actually looks like for the Pacers and then in the prediction section we’ll talk about why the timing will be so fascinating to me before we get into all that though we need to talk about eBay Motors passion drive and patience the form of for winning championships is also what keeps your red eye alive eBay Motors has everything you need to maintain your vehicle and leveled up to Peak Performance superchargers roof racks exhaust kits LED headlights and more whether you’re into speed power or style eBay Motors has you covered over 122 million parts for your number one ride or die you will always find exactly what you’re looking for plus with eBay’s guaranteed fit your part is guaranteed to fit you’ll ride every time or your money back because with eBay Motors your burning rubber not cash with all the parts you need at prices you want it’s easy to make your car the MVP and bring home huge wins keep your red eyee alive at ebaymotors.com eligible items only exclusion Supply eBay guaranteed fit only available to us customers back here on lockdown Pacers thanks for making us your first listen today and every single day your second listen should be locked on NBA to hear the latest and greatest around the coaching Carousel and the NBA Finals 20 Celtics fun Series so far though still enjoying it and I’ll unlocked on NBA on Tuesday talking about about presumably the decision Dan Hurley makes with regards to the Lakers the finals and plenty more me and David rill let’s talk more Obi toen let’s talk about other considerations that’s what cons stands for today is considerations not pros and cons but actually it’s both so this one is just endlessly fascinating to me I I thought that if you remember back at the trade deadline Derek Kramer and I did a whole segment talking about the most likely players to be traded and Buddy heeld was first for me and then I had Obi toppin really high not because I thought they should trade Obi toin again he’s good and young and they can keep him INRI free agency but his future at this specific position Pascal sakam and jerus Walker’s position specifically is very fascinating you know what what does that actually look like for the Pacers what kind of value is this so the top thing that I have in this cons consideration section just says jarus Walker right because it be overrated to say he Blocks jarus he’s young and he’s better right now it’s not blocking him he’s just playing instead um but in the future if jarus is very good there is blocking air quotes of minutes going on there and what if you’re the Pacers how would you like to proceed in that way is it worth having Obi toppen for two three four years if it means that it’s harder to play jerus Walker you have to think about playing him in other positions you have to maybe play Obby toen another position to play jerus Walker at a different position right like if Obie’s your backup five could jerus be your backup four or does someone else have to not play for jarus to play backup three all these decisions are just added factors if you have Obi TOA now you you’re figuring it out as I just went through right you move ob’s position you move someone else whatever because he’s good but jarus it’s a lot easier to slot him into what lny consider his natural position and go from there if there’s not someone in his way now the Pacers are not a team that can just say you know what we’re we’re going the development route right we just made the Conference Finals but we’re gonna we’re gonna intentionally get worse at this position to develop the spot and yes that is something teams have to do sometimes to develop a spot for the long term uh are the Pacers really a long longterm thing team right now I mean they can think sort of in the future but not to that level of extent maybe I mean maybe they can that none of that mattered I just said a lot of stuff that all contradicted myself but I mean now that to say you get the point I’m making which is if they really think jarus Walker can contribute very soon perhaps they just say you know what if Obi toppen gets a really nice deal for himself somewhere else good for him we’re ready to play jarus we’re ready to play this guy lots of minutes and it’s very easy now they could still find ways to play jarus and have Obi toen on their team those are not directly related things it just becomes easier to play the guy they selected in the lottery last year if toppen is not on the team or if toppen is somewhere else and value is created so that’s one consideration not a con because they’re not directly um related one kind of con though is toppin defense is not very good right all this some of the stuff that makes him good on offense Rick Carl Wards he’s tall he’s angular he’s athletic his lateral movements very bad uh he gets blown by quite a bit and specifically in the playoffs he had some okay moments especially he was playing the five next to se yakum but I mean really against the Celtics and to be clear the Celtics are a machine no like if you and a lot of Pacers players got picked on his weak links but toen really did and down the stretch of some key games he really did his defense is not particularly shining his team defense is not particularly shining and on a team that’s looking for improvements there I wonder how they think about that as a factor you know do they think about well if he’s not on the team what does that look like Pacers defensive rating I use PBP stats for all my team ratings their defensive rating with top and on was nearly 120 it was closer to 118 with him off right that’s a two-point difference on a team that sucked defense um he is not a good Defender and remember again a key part of the Pacers switch when they were looking to get certain traits on the floor and change their starting five on Christmas will be to and went to the bench for Jaylen Smith at the time obviously he’s not going start over seak now but you get the point that I’m making if they’re truly investing in defense how much investment can they then make in toen to be on their team and play a significant role again shining offensive fit he’s a good player that all matters more than this but his defensive limitations matter and they popped up a lot in the playoffs another one for a consideration right assuming as we are that the Pacers are telling the truth Pascal sakam is truly their priority and they’re reporting that he’ll get at or near a Max is true if if they then pay Obi toppen they are right there at the tax I guess it depends on where toppen deal ends up coming in but they do not have a lot of wiggle room to keep other stuff or add an external vet or see what they can do with the 36th pick they are sniffing it they are right at it right and that is you know you it’s fine to pay it it becomes way easier to pay even next year um but if you’re so close most teams try to be under do the Pacers really want to pay OB be topping to go over by a few million dollars that’s for them to decide maybe they do uh but that that it’s just kind of doesn’t pass the smell test of what every team in NBA history has done when faced with that kind of decision so they can stay under it with him so this is not a con this is a consideration like with jarus you know they don’t directly interfere uh obviously his defense directly interferes so that’s a con but in this case you know if if the decision is man we have to like think of it like this if you if the if you’re the Pacers and you have to sign Obi to go into the tax but to keep Obi you have to trade away a second round pick and a player to dump their salary you know that is part of the math of signing topen is well do we do we give away this asset to sign topin for that much is that worth it so that’s another factor to think about here and perhaps you could just play the backup five and jerus is playing and then they trade away Jaylen Smith to get under the tax and then every single problem I just talked about is gone but then they don’t have Jaylen Smith anymore and they still would yeah it’s just they’re all kind of interl in a way way that makes this at least a lot of considerations for toin INF free agency I accidentally switched times it didn’t mean to one second uh next one this isn’t a con this is a consideration uh Obi to and signning trade is a possibility uh if another team wanted him or the Pacers just wanted to create a trade exception because they thought they were losing him for any number of reasons um base your compensation comes into play with sign and trades because his salary would be going up not a lot but a good amount from last year uh which makes it not as easy to just look at cap numbers and make a smooth trade that said since teams can trade using their mid level exception now there’s still lots of ways to do this somewhat smoothly the question is what is the value of Obi to and in a sign and trade if that’s the route the Pacers go are they actually getting anything I don’t mean that because he doesn’t have value he clearly does the Pacers gave up stuff for him last year and now he’s a better player the question actually is about in a sign and trade specifically what his value is players get traded for generally Less in those moments because it requires a very specific set of circumstances to actually come to fruition you know so that that would make it different at least but if the Pacers are getting a trade exception but losing a good player what do they feel like they should get in return you know that’s something for them to think about but it’s going to be really hard to take back money because of Bas your compensation at least money that makes sense for them in a lot of cases so that’s another Factor uh to consider here is yes the sign and trade is possible it’s possible with any uh free agent that you have rights free agent rights for but it’s hard to come up with something that makes a lot of sense for the team receiving topen the Pacers the assets the timing the rules it’s all it’s all kind of tricky uh but again teams are able to trade their mid-level exceptions now which does make things a little easier and that’s a one more con potentially is that the easier mobility of these exceptions could make it easier for teams to go jump in on these restricted free agents if they don’t have the cap space but they don’t care about tying up their exception because they can trade it at any time during the season maybe they’ll be more aggressive and using it to sign someone like a top it and that could change the process of this rest restricted excuse me free agency so the cons for the Pacers like they’re not really I think once the cap starts to grow they won’t be as worried about their finances as they might be specifically this summer especially as the tax rules change in future Seasons I think that they’ll know more about their team and what they need to move for in future Seasons like keeping top and does not really have a long-term con besides that he just isn’t as good anymore at some point but that is unforeseeable so there the pros certainly out him he’s a good player but with him the reason I called that section considerations is there’s a lot of other little bubbling factors under how the Pacers team is growing with their money with their young players with the changing CBA rules that just make it really interesting to think about what resigning obit toopen signals or means or tells the tells us what the Pacers are thinking heading into the next season and it’ll be very interesting to see what happens and now I’m going to try try to predict what’s going to happen looking at a lot of the Dynamics at play here landing on an official contract and I kind of guessed it once earlier but I’m going to get a little more uh granular about it today before we do that though let’s take a short little break to talk about LinkedIn jobs when you’re hiring for your small business you want to find quality professionals that are right for the roles and that’s why you have to check out LinkedIn jobs LinkedIn jobs has the tools to help find the right Professionals for your team faster and for free LinkedIn isn’t just another job board they have a vast network of more than a billion professionals which makes it the best place to hire it gives you access to professionals you can’t find anywhere else and then you all that will makeing the process easy and intuitive hiring is simple when you have that many quality candidates so easy in fact that 86% of small businesses get a qualified candidate within 24 hours LinkedIn knows that small businesses are wearing so many hats might not have the time or resources to hire that’s why they’re constantly finding ways 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look like let let’s let’s back up for a second I don’t want to I don’t want to make you guys wait because I know people are interested in this but let me let me talk about the Dynamics here of the timing if you’re the Pacers why would you rush here because the way this typically goes is teams want to use their cap space quickly to get the best players and when cap space is gone there’s less options for restricted free agents right there’s less places for them to go and thus there’s less teams that are want trying to tie up their cap space on restricted free agent or tie up their exception and their value starts to go down because they can’t return to their incumbent team and say hey I’ve got this offer from this team especially because some teams know why go through the paperwork they’re just get to match and so typically you know a guy especially in this kind of top and range can drag on for longer my example would be PJ Washington last year which got to like late August right and then he signed a pretty fair deal but it took forever because he didn’t sign early no rush by the Hornets they waited they got him and no one else dove in and tripped all over themselves to sign PJ Washington and now everyone’s watching the finals thinking they probably should have tripped all over themselves to sign PJ Washington but that’s just my example of the timing not the quality of player specifically so if you’re the Pacers why Rush right you know you can keep them assuming it’s within your budget you have the midlevel exception as an alternate if someone does blow you over and you can’t afford to match it and the mid-level exception is probably a close tool in terms of the value of player you’re getting on the market right however Obi toen wants to go really fast because once the cap space is gone or once teams use their exceptions and there’s less options for him it’s harder for him to negotiate because of restricted free agency with the Pacers so there’s a lot of push and pull of the timing here that makes it really interesting if both teams want both parties want to be back together then maybe it’s just smooth and easy and it goes fast and the Pacers can have the guarantee that they that they got them and they have the price set but restricted free agency is not fun for any player but especially one of this skill level just because of all the external factors and so the timing of this will be interesting do the Pacers just say rise to the finals yep great we’ve agreed on our value we’re doing it now or do they say go figure it out because if you look at the teams that could afford him you know with seak was very easy you just stop at you know the the five teams that might have be able to get to enough cap space and that’s it toppen there are the six six teams that can easily get to enough cap space and a couple more that could with with fancy footwork um add in the spur so Detroit Philly Orlando Utah OKC San Antonio would be that crew maybe Charlotte and then a lot of teams are over the cap but a lot of of them are far enough from the tax that they could still um get use their mid-level exception like Houston Toronto Brooklyn Sacramento uh Memphis so that is relevant because mid-level exceptions probably a fair starting salary for Obby toop and next year the non- tax one specifically so there’s a lot more teams cap space is not specifically a requirement that said cap space teams might be willing to tiee some percentage of their cap in top and for example I think the OKC Thunder would be a great fit for OB topen in freee agency right so there are options for him out there um so the timing element of this will be interesting can toppen get an offer right away do the Pacers want to wait and see if he can do these teams tie up their funds and something else how does this all go what does it mean for Obi toon what he signs with and how he ends up with the Pacers that said the moving dynamics of the mid-level exception make this interesting because a lot of teams could dive in but toppen really enjoyed playing for the Pacers he fit very well he had the best season of his career the Pacers as check Kenan said really liked having him around I think the more likely result is that he stays that he stays with the Pacers on a deal that makes sense for both parties I would put that as the favorite right now even with all those considerations I had in the second segment you can figure that stuff out later with other moves with other decisions maybe an injury happens you just never know um and they can deal with their finances as the punches roll who knows what happens with Jaylen Smith who knows if they have to trade something else but I think that right now the leader to me would be he’s back with the Pacers next year and in a similar all the one he ended last season with backup four with some level of responsibilities to be a very good offensive player and the Pacers will hope that he can improve defensively that said this isn’t as easy like sakam you know Tyler Smith and I did his fre agency preview last week and we talked a lot about five-year deals he’s 30 right the longest deal possible the most money might make sense and I floated at the end a reason why a shorter deal could make sense for se yakum but we spent most of our time talking about longer deals there this one is a little different to me toppen is 26 so a longer deal could take him past his prime I’m not saying it will in fact he hasn’t been in the NBA that long maybe it doesn’t at all but getting back on the market at age 29 with seven years of service and a higher max if that’s even relevant plus the rising cap environment means there is value in these kinds of players getting back into free agency a little earlier right as the cap goes higher if they get higher percentage of the cap or even the same percentage their salary would still go up because if their salary is going up 8% and the Cap’s going up 10% they would like to reset where their percentage is so I do Wonder with someone like Obi toen if a two or three-year deal is more palatable to him or more appealing to him or makes more sense for him than a four or fiveyear deal because of getting back on the market at the right time because of the cap Dynamics even the Pacers Dynamics right you might never have a bigger role but what if you want one in the future well the best way would be to have a shorter deal that you can get out of faster right uh so I’ll be curious how long this one is as opposed to the dollars because I think everybody is sort of landed on the same conclusion you know that that I’ve listened to talk about this or that has done any research on last year’s free agents like PJ Washington among other guys and remember it’s important to consider their their perception at the time that they signed the deal not uh not what it not what it is now because Washington obviously is a much better player than obit toop and present day but you know you look back at some of the I’ll use some of the names that I’ve already kind of talked about with with oh gez something just happened to my free agent sorting that that is oh it’s backwards it’s completely I was like Dylan wler did not sign the biggest contract in free agency last year you know if you go down to this general area that I’m talking about Grant Williams right matis stul right the these players are similar in level last year and Max stru right as free agents as Obi toop but now maybe in streu’s case a little better maybe in Grant Williams case a little better Grant Williams got four for 53 for but the Cap’s a little higher now so sorting all those factors out and putting it all together my official guess when I did a little fake exercise to talk to you guys about the tax was a three-year deal that started at the exact value of the mid-level exception for this season and that’s only relevant because in theory he could be traded to more teams during the season if if that were to be an option the total value of that fake contract I made uh was three years 41.6 million I wonder if you could do something if you’re the Pacers that’s like three years 50 million the last season’s partially guaranteed or something like that right that way to’s okay because he gets the money then but can get on the market at the same time or if he plays well he’ll be paid $50 million right something like that between 40 and 50 million with the higher the number goes in total the lighter guarantees on the back end go that makes a lot of sense to me as the Pacers if it’s longer than that I have questions about jarus Walker’s future and what Obi toppen wants to do after this contract uh if it’s shorter than that the Pacers have to already quickly be thinking about Replacements and he’s not extension eligible ever if he signs a two-year deal three is a nice sweet spot especially if there’s some fluff in the back top and’s happy Pacers are happy perhaps they could go from there that’s my official prediction for this if I have to specifically give you a number three years 45 million guaranteed in some way we’ll see what happens it’s all I got for you today if I set a c that confused you if I overe explain something dunk on me if I didn’t explain something at all ask me I’m on Twitter at Tony R East that’s the best way to reach me for questions like this um I’m trying to think tomorrow Kaylin Cooper will rejoin us again we’re doing our shooting guard season review so Ben the Ben just Ben Shepard and Ben maen tomorrow in great detail Wednesday Alex golden from send the pace will be here we’ll do the small forwards free agency preview together which will be very fun uh and then Thursday Friday will see guest availability uh is a factor later in the week as does the Finals results because I got to get through all the free agency previews before the finals are over because free agency can start earlier this year uh I don’t know if I issued this mopa I’m not the cap and the changing cbas and stuff I keep gargling up nonsense TJ McConnell Jaylen Smith and Andre M har are all eligible for the same extension so four years 78 million-ish is the max there uh and I had Pascal siakam’s cap hold too high cuz use his cap hold under the old CBA when I talked about it very irrelevant and IMM material to anything that’s actually said but issuing the mult but now I’m excited to talk with Kaylin tomorrow and dive into some basketball hope you guys enjoyed Today’s Show we’ll see you very soon

Indiana Pacers forward Obi Toppin is a free agent this summer. What do the Pacers need to consider when it comes to retaining Obi Toppin or not? Host Tony East breaks down all the factors and makes a prediction about the final contract.

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