The Oklahoma City Thunder Are One Piece Away – 2024 Free Agency/Offseason Series – Ep 5

The Oklahoma City Thunder Are One Piece Away – 2024 Free Agency/Offseason Series – Ep 5

hey guys so today I want to talk about the Oklahoma City Thunder and their upcoming off season which I think might be one of the most fascinating ones in recent memory and that’s mainly because we just saw they were pretty close to making the Conference Finals uh and they were the youngest team to win a playoff series their their ceiling it’s it’s pretty unclear where they could top out and they’re only going to get better and when you look at the roster I think the thing we could agree on is they could use some more front Court help maybe a forward that could really round out that starting five and what makes it so interesting is that they’re entering this off season with 30 million plus in cap space and they don’t have to use it now they could also roll it over into the next off season where there could be better players available but they have a pretty short window to use this flexibility and that’s mainly because Jaylen Williams and Chen holg Grim they’re going to be uh getting new contracts two years from now and once they get paid that’s it the flexibility is gone so I want to go over what they could potentially do with their cap space just how much they have who and who may and may not be available and then I want to go over a scenario that I think is really fun and would love to see happen so here’s a thunder payroll heading into next season so far and a couple things I want to know first Josh gidd is on the final year of his contract he’s going to be extension eligible this summer now his long-term fit with the team’s already been in question since before the playoffs and he just became a non factor in the math series and was basically unplayable uh as the series went along so because of all those reasons I would not expect him to be extended and he could very well be a trade candidate this summer uh then you got Isaiah Joe Aaron Wiggins they’re both on minimum salaries but they’re both team options so they could both be declined so they could resign with the Thunder for higher amounts which could make sense for them to lock up those guys uh at higher amounts now since they have so much flexibility so they could keep them once a roster gets more expensive but when you put it all together the Thunder are looking at roughly 33 million in cap space without needing to decline any of those options that they just keep the roster the way it is and then they have the $8 million rid level exception that they could use after spending that 3 33 million so they’d be able to just go ahead and sign or trade for just about anybody outright without having to sacrifice any their current players if they wanted to now I want to talk about Isaiah Joe’s situation a little more because he’s been so valuable for them he’s been one of the League’s best Shooters and he’s been often closing games for the thunder so as I mentioned earlier he’s got that $2.2 million team option which is the minimum that the Thunder could Decline and then resign him to give him a higher starting salary in a long-term deal and if they do that he would have early bird rights so this would be the maximum amount that they’d be able to give and projected at 55.8 million now it’s important to note that the starting amount that 12.5 million would not interfere with their cap space they could spend their 30 million plus in cap space and then go over the salary cap to resign them to this amount because he’d have a very small cap hold that would interfere with their cap space so I think it makes a lot of sense for the Thunder to give them a raise now and lock them up to a long-term team-friendly rate that would help keep them when the roster is more expensive in the future and now this is just the maximum amount he can get and since he’d already be getting an immediate raise over that 2.2 million maybe they can get him to agree to lessen this amount so what can the Thunder do with their cap space to address their front court and I think the most obvious one would be to sign someone outright in free agency now when you look at the players that are available you got guys like OJ noobi and Pascal seak at the top but I don’t really think they’re really going to be available they it seems like they’re probably going to resign with the teams that they’re already with and then when you go down the list you’ve got guys like Tobias Harris miles Bridges Obi toppen and it’s hard to really know if these are great fit so not seeing how limited the front court options are in free agency they might have to look elsewhere to find that upgrade so then they could look at the trade market and when you look at who’s available for trade there’s at the top Brandon Ingram then you get a little cheaper there’s Jeremy Grant guys like Kyle kozma I think Denny AIA would make a lot of sense he’s making of like basically the mid-level exception maybe Julius Randle could be available um but and the Thunder have enough draft picks to acquire just about any of these guys so that option might be a little more realistic now it’s also important to note that it’s possible a lot of those front Court players aren’t even available since most teams are trying to compete they want to keep those players to be good so there’s also the worst case scenario where they kind of repeat what they did last off season which is trade for more bad contract s and get more draft picks keep accumulating assets and keep adding to that big pile they already have and that’s probably going to be pretty frustrating considering that they really don’t need more picks and they have an opportunity to potentially get someone that could really push them to the finals but just a a worst case scenario option that could still happen now with that said I want to go over a scenario where they’re getting a front Court Allstar who I think would help them a lot could fit into their payroll in the long term as a team gets more expensive and there’s some really fun salary cap me mechanics involved in my pip dream scenario is trading for Lori Markin who I think would be a perfect fit for this Thunder team and they have more than enough draft picks to make an adequate deal now what makes him so interesting for the Thunder is that he’s going to be eligible for a renegotiation this season meaning they could use their leftover cap space to increase his $8 million salary this upcoming season and then give him an extension off of that and they’d be able to do this 6 months after potentially trading for him however if the Thunder go into the regular season under the salary cap there’s now a new rule that limits the amount of cap space it can carry it’s a difference between the salary cap and the minimum team salary that uh teams must spend on its rosters which would essentially be 14.1 million so let’s say they successfully trade for him and they go into the season under the salary cap so his salary plus that 14.1 million maximum they can give him in January February they would be able to increase the salary up to 32.1 million they can then give them up to four years in as an extension with the first year being 140% raise off that $3 32.1 million amount and that would give him a total of four more years and 216 million in new money between those four years and that extra money he’s getting in this upcoming season so this would be the maximum amount that the Thunder could renegotiate and extend Lori Market into mid-season as a comparison it is nearly equivalent as a percentage to the salary cap that the mon sabonis just got in his renegotiation and extension with the Sacramento King so this could make sense for him and it’s advantageous for the Thunder because he would be earning slightly less than the maximum in those four additional years so here’s a walkthrough of how that Thunder can do my Lori marketing scenario first I had him trade Josh Giddy and however many draft picks got to include to get Lorie Markin in and I also had them decline the team options of Lindy water that leaves it th under with 25.6 million in cap space that they could use toward renegotiating Loren marinan resigning Isaiah Joe and going into the season with a full roster now because the Thunder are trying to preserve cap space mid season for Lori Markin in renegotiation they would need to resign Isaiah Joe with their cap space instead of his early bird rights so this would leave enough room once they get the 14 players for Isaiah Joe to get a starting salary of about 9.4 million which could total around 3 years 30 million or 4 years 40 million I could see him getting more than this on the open market but uh the Thunder could also salary dump a guy maybe like a kenrich Williams or Usman Jen just reduce some payroll if they need to give him a little more but with all this they finished precisely 14.1 million below the salary cap which is the most they can carry into the season and then all they got to do is wait 6 months and use that 14.1 million to do the renegotiation and extend Lori marinin I’m going to project ahead here is 25 26 payroll or their Following season with the amount I projected for Lori marinin now I’m sure several of these draft picks will be moved by then especially for a player like marinin but the Thunder will be able to get to a full roster and stay well below the luxury tax so they still have plenty of flexibility to trade for a mids salary player someone who’s making as as much as lot D or so or uh add someone with the mid-level exception and still stay below the tax and now I want to project even even further ahead and the amazing part is that this roster could probably still be sustained into the 26 27 season and Beyond when ched holr and Jaylen Williams are going to get their new deals now obviously things can change but for now I’m projecting both of them to get Max contracts which would start at 25% of the salary cap now the Thunder would be able to fi such a deep roster with four max players they can have Lou dord and Isaiah Joe on top of that making uh mid-level type money and still feel the competitive backend of the roster now they’ll definitely pay a pretty significant luxury tax bill I’ve got them projected at over a 100 million but ownership has shown an appetite to dip well into the tax before uh in those last Paul George Russell Westbrook years they spent a lot of money on the tax so I doubt that they will cheap out if they have a roster this good now the only other thing to know is that they would probably be over the second apron at this point with a roster this expensive teams that finish over the second apron would have penalties to the draft picks in the future their first round pick seven years out from that season would be frozen for being traded and if they’re over the second apron again then that draft pick can be lowered to the end of the first round but for a team this good and that can be sustained for potentially a decade plus could they be immune to the penalties of the second apron because that draft pick could be at the end of the first round anyways and they’ve got so so many draft picks over the next seven years that does it really matter if they can trade one of them in the future so it’s possible that this Thunder team can sustain a high payroll over the second apron for multiple years it’s just a matter of do they want to spend exorbitant luxury tax payments over those Seasons now in all likelihood Lori marinin will probably extend with the Utah Jazz they have the cap space to give them even more in a renegotiation in extension than the Thunder can and they already have more than enough draft pick going forward so maybe they don’t even want anymore there might not be a trade that really uh suits them and they just don’t have any cornerstones just yet other than marinin so they probably want to keep him around for once they’re ready to start competing and you might be thinking well why don’t the Thunder just trade for Lori marinan after he renegotiates and extends with the Jazz mid-season and the answer is he that wouldn’t be possible and the reason for that is because marinin becomes renegotiation eligible in September so his six months trade restriction that would follow would run past the February trade deadline and so while the Thunder will likely see what they could do with their cap space for more realistic targets whether it’s in free agency or trade they could also just wait until the next offseason if they can’t get anyone that they’re totally in love with then why commit to him if you don’t think he’s such a great fit long term you could just see what’s out there in 2025 I do think that they’ll probably though find some type of solution at the front Court even if it’s just a short-term one and re-evaluate later but in any case the Thunder have been extremely patient it’s paid off so far and whatever they end up doing they’re just in such a great spot going forward

The Oklahoma City Thunder’s future is looking extremely bright with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, and Jalen Williams. They became the youngest team to win a playoff series and are so close to getting to the Finals. They need to address their frontcourt and they have the means to do it. Armed with $33 million in cap space, they could sign just about any top forward who wants to join. They also have so many draft picks to make an adequate offer for just about any frontcourt player in a trade. The possibilities are abundant, and I go over one where they use some of their flexibility to lock up Isaiah Joe while adding an All-Star forward.

0:00 Intro
1:13 Thunder 2024-25 cap space projection
2:31 Isaiah Joe
3:37 Cap Space Options
5:38 Lauri Markkanen option and his renegotiation
7:17 Walkthrough of the Markkanen and Joe scenario
8:27 Projecting the Thunder’s payroll 2025-26 and beyond
10:48 Outro

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