NBA Draft Prospects in the statistical danger zones. Some Big name in the danger zone

NBA Draft Prospects in the statistical danger zones. Some Big name in the danger zone

are you in the danger zone or more importantly is your favorite NBA draft prospect in the danger zone we’ve created six danger zones for NBA prospects you decide whether it means you wouldn’t draft them next unlocked on jazz You Are locked on Jazz your daily podcast on the Utah Jazz part of the locked on podcast Network your team every day how are you I am David lock radio voice with Utah jazz jazz MBA Insider and today’s locked on Jazz we’re going to look at our statistical models we have found six danger zones some seem scarier than others if you might draft a prospect and we’ll look at which prospects in this NBA draft are in those danger zones and then you can decide what you think we’ll talk a little bit about the finals last night boy the playoffs have become a dud here late after a great start and we’ll talk about all that coming up on today’s edition of lock on Jazz I Am David lock radio voice of the Utah Jazz Jazz MBA Insider and this is locked on Jazz it’s your daily podcast on the Utah Jazz giving you Insight expertise geeky numbers and hopefully making it way better to be a jazz fan each and every day thank you m so much for making locked on Jazz your first listen of the day we are free and available on all podcasting apps we also are free on YouTube so subscribe while so you can listen while you’re in your car or on your phone or running or doing something like that on your podcasting app and then subscribe and follow on YouTube so you can watch the show if you want to um and hit the Bell button on that so it notifies you whenever we’re live thanks very much for being a first your first listen and thanks to all the every dayers few notes from yesterday’s show thank you to all the people who sent me nice notes I very much appreciate that we have a great Community it’s neat to be a part of I’m glad I feel comfortable sharing with you second I screwed up a bunch yesterday we have the 29th and the 32nd pick not the 28th and 32nd pick I don’t know why I keep having this in my head I’ve said that a thousand times though um I I almost think I decided it before the season ended I have no excuse it’s any good but it’s just kind of uh so I apologize um and I actually went back and listened to start of the show and I was like hey wait Denver has the 28th and Oklahoma City won that last game so we slipped to 20 yeah oops so when Oklahoma City got the one seed we slipped thinking when Denver we thought had the one seed secured so I think that’s where I screwed that up so we have 2932 the other one which actually YouTube chat told me I’m not going to even lie I I I had a feeling but I searched everywhere the night before and couldn’t find it not that well probably um and I was somewhat of a zombie the night before um is the Salis kid who’s Ron Boon’s cousin went back to college which is a bummer because I really liked his numbers and thought he looked really good so all right that’s it all right here’s what we’ve done today for those who are new to the number system we use for the draft we’ve kind of heard it a lot but if let’s just make sure so I characterize um really I said six but it’s it’s really four so we have athleticism which over the last um five years of the draft we’ve looked at as either being Transit what your percentile is in transition and what your percentile is in isolation so that tells me if you’re just a Bonafide athlete um number two is playmaking and I just use pick and roll on that um whether you can make a play on the pick and roll then there’s shooting and we look at your shooting percenti and spot up and catch and shoot and then we have creating which is creating off the bouns so I’ve kind of created six but really four danger zones off of the last three drafts I can I’ll go back and do more I kind of share these things progressively with you it’s not like a college thesis where it has to be perfect um so there’s some flaws here probably but I’ll just share with you what I have and you can listen and decide that’s always what I’ve believed I’ve always believed you’re smart enough to figure out whether you believe what I’m telling you or not and you won’t just aimlessly follow me I’m not a political pundit that you just aimlessly follow uh today’s episode is brought to you by Game Time download the game time app create an account use the code locked on NBA for $20 off your first purchase terms of life um so the first danger zone is for athleticism and it’s anyone who’s under 40% in transition percentile so in the last three years this has been kton Watson which is interesting because he obviously has turned out to be a pretty decent athlete but he he was not um he was not that first year um this is so funny I write these things so fast when I do them and I somewhat scribble them and now I get to them and I can’t remember who these players names are and the reason I can’t remember these players names are is because they haven’t all panned out and so therefore then they’re not natural names to remember um which is kind of funny um so give me one second here while I pull this back up to make sure I see who I’m talking about uh so players that are in the athleticism Danger Zone from LA from last year or two years ago’s draft so I did two years ago I’m kind of doing this in a weird order I probably should now I think about it to make it so that you can follow it better let’s do it this way from three years ago the players that um were in the danger zone three years ago Josh giddy Keon Johnson usam gar gruba Josh Primo and Moses Moody okay like seems to match last year or in 2002 those players that were in the danger zone for uh transition and so this is athleticism and we have two monikers for athleticism we have both uh this and pton Watson the name I couldn’t remember was Kennedy Chandler that was drafted 38th he actually was in the first round TI Tai Washington Dyson Daniels Max Christie and actually Andrew nebh hard of Gonzaga was in the transition but not in the isolation and then last year the players are drafted and we don’t really know on these yet but this gets super interesting on one of them where Keon George he was the worst transition percentile of anyone last year remember was Heavy in college Jaylen Hood sfin Nick Smith scoot Henderson and haime hawz so haime hawz busted it but scoot Henderson being in there is really interesting so there’s about been Five Guys in each of the first rounds that are sub 40 percentile in transition on Synergy and I would say of those Josh kidy survived but he survived because of lack of athleticism Moses Moody’s been okay and we’ll see on Keon George scoot Henderson and we’ll see how long Haim Haw has left so it’s two early it would be nice if I had all the data for 2020 I don’t have all of the data yet on 2020 I have a lot of it um I just had some gaps so I want to use it but just if a quick scan to give you an idea and then you can decide which of these you think the guys who were in The Danger Zone um one of them is really surprising in 2020 were Patrick Williams Cole Anthony cases Winston who went 45th Jaden McDaniel Jade McDaniel surprising right there okay the next one in the Danger Zone on athleticism is isolation so three years ago was Josh Primo Jaden Springer Scotty Barnes and Jaylen Johnson two guys turned out okay so like you know let’s keep an eye on whether you buy this or not whether so maybe you think TR the transition was pretty good there I would say in isolation Jaylen Williams the Arkansas jayen Williams wasn’t a first- round pick Patrick Baldwin Benedict maen Dyson Daniels oai abaji and last year was Anthony black and Scoot Henderson and a not entirely complete but pretty good list for the 2020 draft interestingly Tyrese Maxi Jaden McDaniels again uh were there so actually it’s it’s sub20 so actually nobody I take it back no actually sub 20% um and so nobody both Maxi and D that was wow that was draft was really athletic everyone’s sub plus 40% and let me double check that on isolation on the Primo Springer Scotty Barnes number because I wonder if I that that one is only a sub 20 percentile in other words most people aren’t very good in transition and so the number in isolation so the number is not as good Scotty Barnes was 18 okay great great and Jaylen Johnson was 19 so who in this year’s draft have would we put in the danger zone for athleticism I’ve done through the top 45 picks of the draft and so let’s take a look and see who we put and then you you can decide right you’ve just heard I think it’s a danger zone I think that’s the right way to say it like those most of those players didn’t pan out so that to me would be a little bit of a danger zone if I had one of my players in that level I would and I wanted to draft him it would give me pause they are BB Carrington Justin Edwards the rookie out of Kentucky would be thought of for the Jazz at 28 or 32 The Freshman jacobe Walter Rob Dillingham this is in transition Harrison Ingram who I watched last night and really liked uh the big OSU uh I do not know how to pronounce this I do not know this player Adam Marquette and then right on the edge of it is bazus out of the g-league ignite right on the edge of it but he is in it for isolation percentile so this is a top 10 pick everyone’s talking about who is in the danger zone for athleticism and when I watched him like I said someone’s got to help me explain this I don’t see it I can’t see him beating anyone isolation percentage there’s only two guys that are right on the or two guys that are in it and one of them’s out of G leag IGN 610 he wouldn’t be an isolation player and the other’s trevan Brazil out of Arkansas and somebody told me something about him I don’t know what it was um and then bazus is the only one Dalton connect is the fourth worst isolation player in this draft but he’s in the 44th percentile Then followed by Ron Holland and Isaiah CER and I gotta be honest I watched dton connect last night and I’m not talking about it today because I had such a rough watch such a rough watch that I have to watch it again all right so th the D so really of important players of important players for for what we’re we care about bazus is the name that jumps out the biggest here but then a guy I really like in Bob Carrington the youngster ju Justin Edwards and jacobe Walter and Rob Dillingham so some guys that float around our range by the way we have the results in for our first finalists in our bracket of eight we’ll give that to you next plus we’ll look at those players that are in the pick and roll danger zone before we look at the shooting danger zone next unlocked on Jazz Today’s Show is brought to you by my good friend Steve Carter over at intercap lending there there’s really nothing that I could tell you more about Steve Carter in intercap than just simply the best customer service you could possibly imagine in fact multiple multiple locked on people have you Steve Carter there’s really nothing 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meeting with Steve Carter that you deserve Today’s Show is also brought to you by game time use the code locked on NBA and get $20 off your first purchase with game time who was I listening to the other day oh Drake toll of Big 12 was hit a concert in Virginia the other day when he was with Savannah bananas he’s the voice of Savannah banana he’s also our big 12 host and he was out on the road and used game time all of our hosts Love Game Time why because lowest price guarantee event cancellation 24hour guarantee on time ticket delivery up front they show you all the cost you just hit the little toggle so it shows it to you and you get Zone deals and you can pick the section and the game time picks the seats for the biggest savings game time is the official ticketing app for locked on and the reason is because you can get these great deals and get last minute deals right up to the start of event even an hour after it starts so go check it out at game time download the game time app right now and use the code locked on NBA for your first purchase ter terms do apply thanks so much for listening to locked on Jazz your daily podcast on Utah Jazz I’m David lock lockon has launched the first ever 247 National streaming Sports channel get the local Experts of lockon giving you all the biggest stories of the day the Celtics and Mavericks analysis will be on there tonight it’s on YouTube at lockdown sports today it’s also available on Amazon fire all right danger zone for pick and roll ball handlers now this is interesting because you’re not asking every player to be a pick and roll ball handler but it was interesting when I went through this that like oh wait if you just can’t if you can’t handle it all it may limit what you’re able to do so here’s the danger zone there’s a lot of players in the last few years I have this actually if you’re under 50 percentile I might have this a little wide ranging but here are the players so three years ago the players were drafted in the first round that were under 50% pick and roll Josh Primo Jared Springer s garuba Keon Johnson zier Williams James book Knight that’s 0 for six the next year Marshon Bo champ dalen Terry Pon Watson Max Christie Jake laravia Jeremy soan is near the thing Blake was Wesley and Tai Tai Washington I’m not sure that there shouldn’t be a break around 30 but okay frankly that we are now that’s eight six uh 58 six if soans made it which I think’s debatable we’re one of last year was balal kolabay Brandon Miller interesting cam Whitmore Nick Smith and Bryce sens is right on that edge I’m not sure yet where I think that I have it really high at 50 right now I think that’s too much if I’m being honest I think it probably should be breaking at about 30 which would take Jeremy Shan and Blake Wesley tight Tai Washington off it would take Nick Smith and Bryce sens off 2021 adding one more draft class or 2020 excuse me as adding one more draft class to this and again the only reason I don’t have 2020 like right off top of my head is I’m missing one or two players so it’s not complete but the players coming out on this were um Aaron Smith Josh Green Elijah Hughes who didn’t get drafted Tyrese halberton was at 31% Jus Ramsey at 33 Cole Anthony at 38 I could pick my numbers and drop Tyrese halberton that’s obviously a big Miss if I said it at 30 but okay halberton may have overcome because he was in the 99th percentile spot up shooting too all right who are in the danger zone for this year for pick and roll and we’ll give you the two different versions of that right because I think it’s still you know this is where some of this data is still developing and I do think this one’s interesting like if I was an NBA Scout I think I would be paying attention Okay rash hasier in the % he’s only ran 28 of him but he’s in the 80 percenti Kevin McClure who’s bouncing around late first round is in the ninth percentile matis bazus is in the 17th percentile again kwn George is in the 27th percentile so I definitely insist that the jazs cannot draft him Justin Edwards is in the 36 percal jacobe wal is in the 43rd and then right on the edge is our guy Cody Williams everybody else is over 50% I have not flipped this I will tonight of whether there’s a success rate number that if somebody’s in the 99th percentile like Baylor shyan of Craton on pick and roll that you should just graft him Taran Shan Jr who yes I mentioned yesterday and I did didn’t mention the rape charges against him just because I was looking at numbers but that would be a different question we drafted Jared McCain and Reed Shepard are in the 93rd percentile we’ll look at that tomorrow is there a golden Zone if there’s a danger zone today is there a golden zone for tomorrow but those are so this is where this draft is getting super interesting and it’s where being 10th might just be fine because we now suddenly have bazus and rashash who are ly into this danger zone along with a few others and the Danger Zone on pick and roll we’ll see balal kulali was really good last year but he was not like a pick and role player Brandon Miller was really good he could just really shoot it we’ll see on cam Whitmore and Nick Smith and we’ll see on Bry Sensa so I find that one really really interesting um we had our first semi-final match yesterday and it was a blowout Cody Williams against Rob Dillingham and Cody Williams on the YouTube vote took 82% 82% um somebody wrote on my notes that they think that Rob dillingham’s dearen Fox I think Darren Fox is way bigger sometimes I watched Dillingham I thought he was by by the way he’s pretty good like um I watched the Kentucky Tennessee game and I watched the Tennessee North Carolina game this is where I said I had some rough Dalton connect watches but dearon Fox is 63 185 Rob Dillingham I think is 6 feet 170 I don’t know what he came in on measurements but he is small I will say this Reed Shepard who I I I am enamored with did look small compared to Adon connect like when they were playing together um Dillingham measured at 61 with a 63 Wings span and weighed 164 wow I I I think he’s gonna slip I I think it’s too small there’s just some level where that gets too hard for everyone to take in okay let’s go back to the danger zone there’s three of them here they’re very very similar spot up shooting okay spot up shooting which might be really important okay um three years ago James book Knight zire Williams a first round picks JT Thor Keon Johnson 0 for four ioda Sumo was the second round draft pick was in this list just want a full disclosure two years ago draft Payton Watson Walker Kessler no kidding uh Jiang at Oklahoma City Marsh on Bo champ Jaylen Williams the center second round draft pick and Dyson Daniels Jaylen Williams will see he didn’t shoot very well this year otherwise perfect last year’s draft this one’s funny Derek Lively jayen Hood chafino haime hwz Anthony black Victor web and Yama I think you can get over it 2019 teen draft players that struggled that were in the danger zone in spot up shooting which are going to be the ones that are very similar to The Spot up shooting to the catch and shoot so I’ll give that to you in a second precious Chua Zeke naagi Isaiah Stewart all bigs Patrick Williams Zer Tillman and that’s it that draft really had everyone could play That’s The Desmond Bane Jaden MCD so that that was it all of them and frankly a lot of those guys are struggling to make it in League okay now let’s go to catch and shoot because I don’t want to do these separately because I think they’re very similar because really one’s spot up shooting one’s catch and shoot danger zone players are similar danger zone players from four years ago’s draft on catch and shoot are zier Tillman Isaac auro Tyrese Maxi we’ve all talked about I missed on Tyrese Maxi ano kongu big guy Isaiah Stewart and precious auua um and that’s it okay so um we go to the James book Knight JT Thor zire Williams Josh Giddy sonan garuba and right on the edge Jaylen sucks still can’t really shoot two years ago Walker Kessler Payton Watson Jang again Jaylen Williams again Patrick Baldwin marsham Dyson Daniels and last year Derek Lively Jaylen hoodo Aman Thompson scoot Henderson Anthony black I mean I’m not saying it’s a guarantee but of all the names I just mentioned pton Watson’s been fine but he hasn’t like I’m not sure book Knight Williams dumo JT Thor Keon Johnson book Knight Thor zire Williams Josh giddy still can’t shoot Suma like they all yeah I’m buying this one so who are the danger zone spot up Shooters on this year’s draft and who are the danger zone catch and shoot guys on this year’s draft because I’m buying this one I think I advise you stay away that’s next I’m locked on Jazz today’s edition of locked on Jazz has brought to you by prize picks PR prise picks is the number one fantasy sports app with more than 5 million users it’s more fun and exciting way to get in on the action while you watch your 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spot up pulus 20 28% Saloon 29% these are all top 10 picks Ron Holland 30th percentile my guy Bob Carrington 31 percentile and Ryan Dunn 32nd percentile Castle bazus Saloon Holland Carrington and dun all in the danger zone of spot up shooting again the guys that have been in this zone for the last three years Eon Watson Jang Bo champ Dyson Daniels James book Knight zire Williams JT Thor Keon Johnson Jaylen Hood chafino haime hakz Anthony black and Victor weany Victor is pretty special does it give you pause would it change I want your comments throw them to me at X or throw them to me on the comments would this change whether you would draft any of those guys okay catch and shoot danger zone it’s going to be similar but there’s usually one or two different players in there Ryan Dunn Ron Holland stefen canel matis bazus NOA topic sneaks in right at the line as does Alex SAR the number one or two pick of the draft okay again dun Holland C pulus top topic and topic is our draft is our contest tonight the guys who have been in the danger zone in catch and shoot over the last two years three years Payton Watson Jen Baldwin Bo champ Daniels like none of these guys can shoot book Knight Thor Z Williams Josh giddy garuba Jaylen Suggs was right on the edge Jaylen Hood Chino I’m Thompson scoot Henderson Anthony black like do I just like do you need me like we can go run through all these guys see what they’re shooting in the NBA that’s a pretty incredible group right Payton Watson might be the best shooter of the group and he shot 29.6% last year from three I I I know Scouts who have Stephen Castle number one on their board Jen has shot 28 % in his career as a three-point shooter the one guy you might find on who’s on this list who’s turned out to be better is the center for Oklahoma City Jaylen Williams at Arkansas he has shot 38% from three in two years he shot 37% this year he got hot at the end of the year to bring it back around okay so he he might be the he’s he’s the outlier Patrick Baldwin Jr everyone wondered about him he has shot 32% from three last year Marsh on bamp hasn’t been able to shoot Dyson Daniels in two years years in the league is shooting 31% from three should I keep going James book Knight in three years in the NBA is shooting 33% from three zier Williams in three years in the NBA with the Memphis Grizzlies and starting a lot of it is shooting 30% the NBA from three Josh giddy who gets left open every single time is shooting 31% from three I I I believe we’re beginning to have a fairly compelling case here garuba not a good shooter Jaylen Suge right on the edge of this right on the edge career 33% from three scoot Henderson Aman Thompson Anthony black we’ll see scoot enderson numbers were terrible 32.5% from three so with this make you stay away from Ryan Dunn Ron Holland Stephen Castle bazus topich alexar maybe Alex stars on a limited amount of attempts I think no 52 no no less than no less than topic okay let’s get to the last one the danger zone of off the bounce threes or off the bounce shooting this is one that’s interesting to me because I’ve I’ve always thought this was like just intuitively the most important skill but I actually have a lot of cases of players who do this well we’ll do it again we’ll do this again tomorrow the other way who they’re off the bounce games really good and it didn’t translate um at least that’s my memory but we’re gonna find this all right who are guys that are in the off the bounce danger zone uh from the draft four years ago or three years ago Josh green precious atua a guy by the name of Grant rer who never made it Jus Ramsey who didn’t make it my good friend Tyrese halberton who screws up all of my numbers it’s right there halberton was like 95% on catch and shoot not very good on everything okay so halberton is the outlier here 2021 Scotty Barnes Jared Springer Keon Johnson two years ago Jeremy soan Dyson Daniels Jake laravia oai abaji Johnny d AV is in here there’s one other and uh give me one second the scribble is causing me problems and then I’ll see it I’ll know exactly who it was Max Christie last year kabali teres Walker Victor webban Yama scoot Henderson last year’s draft didn’t have a lot so Sohan Daniels laravia aaji Max Christie Johnny Davis might be six for six on misss Scotty Barnes made it Jared Springer Keon Johnson no and we’ll see on kabali Walker Victor and then in 2020 Josh greens made it but not on off the bounce player Tyrese halberton has certainly made it this year Saloon Ron Holland Kevin McClure Johnny fry f I keep calling by the wrong name Stefan Castle Matias bazus Cody Williams it’s a lot it’s Kobe Walter that and Dalton connect is right on the edge off the bounce dribble guys Saloon Holland McLure furpie Castle Zulus Cody Williams it’s five of 16 he didn’t take very many Jobe Walter Doon connect right on the edge rash Air’s at 42% out right on the edge also not a lot of guys left go get me Reed sheeper and let me go home that is locked on Jazz today hope you have a great one we’ll talk about the Celtics with the all time great and by the way does Milwaukee get a banner for this because the Drew Dame Lillard give up Drew holiday let him go to your rival trade wow wow that is locked on Jazz thanks so much for taking the time with us I want to hear your thoughts and your comments throw it around if someone wants to open a Reddit thread on it I’d love to chime in and see what people think of the danger zones for NBA draft prospects have a great day thanks so much we now send you the first ever 247 National streaming Channel locked on Sports locked on sports today if you’re on audio check out locked on sports today on YouTube or on Amazon Fire TV

Over the past 5 drafts David Locke, radio voice of the Utah Jazz and Jazz NBA insider, has taken down numbers breaking down draft candidates into 4 categories, athelticism, play making, shooting and creating. From that data Locke has created the danger zone. Areas when a player coming to the NBA is in these negative space that they have a very limited rate for success. Today, Locke reveals the danager zone for those categories and which players apply to the danger zone.

Which of the top prospects fall into danger zones? Would this change your willingnes to draft them in the 2024 NBA Draft?

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