The case for and against the Orlando Magic signing Paul George

The case for and against the Orlando Magic signing Paul George

we’ve been dancing around it for probably all offseason to this point so let’s get to it the case for and against signing Paul George it’s on today’s locked on Magic you are locked on Magic your day da Orlando Magic podcast part of the locked on podcast Network your team everyday and you are indeed locked on Magic today is June 13th 2024 my name is Phil frostman Reich I’m the senior writer over at orlandomagic.com of course follow me on Twitter at Philip rror on today’s episode of the lock on Magic we’re going to get straight to the heart of it why the magic should pursue Paul George and why perhaps they shouldn’t plus some team building thoughts especially after game three of the NBA Finals we’re going to get to all that coming up here in just a moment but first we want to thank you again for making lockdown magic part of your day every day no matter when you listen to us whether it’s first in the morning whether it’s right when we upload we truly appreciate you making lock on Magic part of your day every day remember there’s a great lock on podcast covering every single team in the NBA just search for locked on and the team you’re looking for the lock on podcast Network it’s your team every day today’s episode of locked on Magic is brought to you by Game Time download the game time app create an account and use code locked on NBA for $20 off your first purchase terms apply it’s been pretty pretty well speculated I don’t want to say reported but pretty well speculated that the magic are a team that would be in a position to go after a star player one of these star players on this year’s fre agency market uh we have heard the Paul George rumor in some form or fashion probably since March or April it is something we have to consider the magic can open up as much as $60 million a cap room we’ve really put them in the 30 to 50 million range I’m probably putting them closer to 40 with some with some c cap maneuverings um but Paul George is definitely an option there’s there’s no getting around it there’s no changing that he is someone the magic could chase after and when we think of free agency we think of a team with this kind of cap room the magic have we do and probably should think big think about adding the best Star and look as good as this magic team is more Talent is not bad now there are warnings and we’re gonna get to that toward the end of the show a little bit but more Talent is not bad you can figure stuff out with talent and and you know maybe the fit isn’t perfect or whatever but there is a lot to like about Paul George I sat down looked at the numbers looked at the skill set and frankly there are very few basketball reasons why the magic shouldn’t pursue Paul George quite simply Paul George does a lot of the things the magic need last year with the LA Clippers he averaged 22.6 points game he has averaged at least 20 points per game every year since 2016 and that was the year that he came back from that horrific leg injury and uh from the 2014 Fe World Cup prep he shot 47.1% from floor 41.3% from three 90.7% from the foul line he is a career 38 a. half% three-point shooter his 41.3% three-point shooting last year was the fifth time in his career he shot better than 40% from three it ranked 12th among all players in the league who took at least five three points per game notably d’angel Russell ranked ninth he took 7.9 three-point attempts per game giving the magic that giving making him one of those volume three-point Shooters at the magic need and he shot 45.4% on 4.4 catch and shoot three-pointers per game so it’s not like he’s taking a bunch of Pull-Up threes or jacking up threes these are high quality threes that he is making George in fact made 48.3% of his Corner threes last year a veritable coin flip which is incredible for a three-point shooter George can do it all great driver average seven and a half drives per game last year qu any data from second Spectrum that’s actually on the low end for him he’s a dynamic offensive player who doesn’t need to touch the ball to be effective and so when we think about we’re looking for what we’re looking for from a point guard someone who can play who could playmake create a little bit make threes but not take the ball away too much from pow Ben Caro and France vogner Paul George was essentially doing that for the LA Clippers the last couple Seasons he was essentially that third banana the third guy behind now James Harden and kawii Leonard but still able to take over when needed there are some numbers that are down I’m gonna get to those here in a minute but he had 11 games of 30 points or more last year despite really being the third option the third guy on the ball and on top of this he still posted 13. 67 assist points for 75 possessions according to basketball index he’s not a natural passer but he is not selfish in the least and maybe George is slowed down a little bit defensively but he’s still an excellent Defender I cannot make a good basketball reason for why the magic would not want Paul George there’s a reason why Paul George feels like the biggest free agent of this offseason because he is the best player that seems open to a move the Clippers are bulking at giving him a new contract he’s gonna probably opt out of a contract that’s going to pay him $38 million per year um that’s gonna pay him $38 million next year that’s gonna be your basine to I think it’s 38 million actually let me double check that I have that written down uh for later um he’s going to be declining a $ 48.8 million player option to enter free agency so the money is going to be an issue and we’re going to get to the money here in a minute but this is an elite player or this is one of the this is still an All-Star level player maybe a little bit on the decline but an All-Star level player that is entering the trade market or entering the free agency market I do not have a basketball reason some something on the court for why the magic shouldn’t Chase Paul George why any team shouldn’t PA Chase Paul George there’s a reason why the Sixers want him and and and and a reason why the Clippers are going to be desperate to keep him too because this is a guy who does it all and frankly does it without complaining yeah there might be some egoo but he doesn’t need the ball in his hands to be that effective and that’s really rare to find there’s a reason why he’s so looked up to around the league he is kind of the ideal of the big shooting guard he still plays that position uh you know you look at the magic and what they’re looking for they’re looking for outside shooting they’re looking for leadership yeah I will pitch that they you know we’ll do the pitch sometime next week about the horse Grant Theory he’s a he’s a leader he’s a veteran he knows what he’s doing he knows his role he knows when it’s time for him to step up he knows when it’s time to to step into the background he’s someone that can play off of Palo ban Carol that that can allow the magic to switch two through four like they like to do a jayen Suggs Paul George fron vogner Palo ban Carol lineup is going to switch one through four and with wend Carter they’ll be comfortable switching one through five and we’re seeing in the in the finals how vital switching is to to bottling up some of these heliocentric offenses it’s important and so I can’t sit here and tell you that Paul George is a bad idea it’s a really good idea basketball-wise it makes complete sense but it’s ultimately not something I can suggest the magic do and it’s not about basketball it’s not about skill it’s not about what he does and I know I will get people in the comments saying this is a loser mentality it’s it it’s not or you know it I’m not going to sit here and say that I’m not going to sit here and say that you know getting Paul George wouldn’t transform the Magic in a meaningful way it would it would make this team significally better it would accelerate the timeline that the magic need to win but that is also the point of why I think Paul George isn’t the answer or isn’t the guy to put all your resources into because that’s what it would take to get Paul George the case against Paul George is not not for his basketball skills although it is in one important way the case against Paul George is about how you fill out the rest of the roster we’re going to talk a little about that coming up here in just a moment but first it’s time for quick word for our friends over at game time I you probably hear from my voice I’m a little horse today um I was at if you’re watching on YouTube you can see I’m still wearing my US soccer jersey after us got a humongous one-1 draw with Brazil in the Contin in the Continental Classico here in Orlando it is officially the summer of soccer here in the city beautiful and the best way to get your tickets to any of the soccer going on Orlando City Orlando Pride uh Copa America that’s coming to town game time is your place to go to 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Network your team every day so I mentioned earlier there there is not a basketball reason to CH to not Chase Paul George um that’s the truth of it the only basketball reason I could think of not to chase Paul George is that last year he played 74 games and was the first time he hit 60 games in the season since 2019 at 33 years old George is coming to the end of his prime window so you’re paying for a player for something that’s going to be outside of his prime his aggression is already decreasing again I mentioned he averaged about seven drives per game last year that was actually the lowest of his career since 2017 his seven and a half drives per game last year down from 10.8 in 2023 he had a usage rate of 26.6% his lowest since 2016 again look 26.6% is still borderline star palan Carol’s up around 28 29 your stars usually at around 30 that’s still a borderline All-Star so he’s not like he’s not getting plenty of shots and getting his shots up but I would venture to guess if you’re paying for Paul George you’re paying more for past performance than future performance it does seem like George is starting to wind down a little bit or starting to CH you know change his game a little bit to prepare for the next phase of his career and again he’s still going to get paid like a star someone is going to give him a $40 million contract that’s that’s just how it goes and that’s why I want to preach some caution Paul George is turning down a very very large um player option here one that would pay him $48 million a year so at a baseline he’s probably looking for a contract starting at 45 40 to$ 45 million a year um you know again if you start him at $40 million I think I calculated it as something like a a four-year um I I I calculated like a four-year $260 million maybe he doesn’t want a four-year deal maybe he’s only looking for two years cycle back in get back to that get back into the free agent pool hit another big contract before his career’s up before his prime is over and under the new TV deal so the salaries keep escalating you’re paying a lot of money and like I said the magic of somewhere between 30 and $50 million in cap room realistically do you want to spend all of it on one player and to me the Paul George question is L about Paul George the player because like I said I I don’t you know outside of age and injury concerns I don’t have a good reason to pass on Paul George I don’t have a good basketball reason to pass on Paul George like he is exactly what the magic are looking for exactly what the magic are thinking um that is that is what the magic need um Paul George checks every box so you know I’m not in this boat very clearly if you are I I don’t have an you know you could find my argument persuasive you cannot find it persuasive I don’t have a basketball reason to not Chase Paul George but I would say this the magic are still at a point where they want some flexibility financially there are still needs they have to fill on this roster they need a backups they need a third Center they need some Wing depth to improve their wing depth and so unless they are really sold on what they already have on their roster that they can put all their resources into Paul Georgia and it won’t be all their resources they could still use the on taxpayer mid-level exception there’s you know there are still some trades maybe they can make there are still things they can do to supplement the roster but to sign Paul George is to is to say this is your summer this is all you’re doing the magic are not the Philadelphia 76ers that have a ton of a cap room have the ability to resign tyres Maxi using bird rights you know and can still go out and sign some other players or retain some players the magic would have to renounce bird rights to Gary Harris to Marl Foltz or just bring them back and so to me this is my kind of team building philosophy the star trade or adding the star like a Paul George is that’s the last movie make in the process that’s kind of the last piece of the puzzle you push your chips in you you you over leverage your resources for that last piece and for my money and I’m not spending the divos family’s money here but for my money I don’t think the magic are at that stage yet and this is where I I I I I I read your comments I see it a lot of people say this is a losers mentality and and and I would argue I would say okay yeah you’re right at some point the magic are going to have to take a risk at some point the magic are going to have to push some chips in the middle of the table put some skin in the game and do something that may or may not work this summer they have to spend money they can’t just sit on their hands again they can’t just say oh we’re going to roll this roster back roll our cap room over that’s not an option anymore and I don’t know if George is looking for one more big payday he’s getting you know the $218 million over four years that I’m project that I’m projecting that’s on the low end that’s him taking a pay cut I don’t know if Paul George wants a four-year deal I don’t know if he wants a three-year deal I don’t know if he wants a two-year deal I don’t know what Paul George is looking for but I know this if you’re signing Paul George today that is your team if you’re signing Paul George you are fully invested you are fully committed to a fron vogner Paul George Palo ban kerot Tria and look maybe that works I’m not GNA again I I don’t have a good basketball reason not to sign Paul George I I I I think it could work but knowing that Paul George is on the wrong side of 30 knowing that Paul George has struggled with injuries in the past does that make the magic that much better when he healthy it absolutely does but if he’s not healthy I don’t think it does I think that actually puts the Magic in a worse position and now you’re relying on the health of a player with a pretty significant injury past so to me Paul George isn’t the player to push your chips in for if you had to ask me not at this juncture not at this stage where a your team is still developing and still growing and still learning and B you want to give Pao and frons all the opportunities to get better to to explore their canvas to to be a better player and this really gets into what team building philosophy is and gets into like what do the magic actually need what are the magic looking for and I think we can look at our current NBA final and and and what we saw in game three especially as well as some lessons maybe we can learn from the Phoenix Suns as to why it isn’t always about winning the headlines I want to touch on that to close Today’s show coming up here in just a moment but first today’s episode of lockdown magic is brought to you by our friends over at prize pick prize pick is America’s number one fantasy sports app with more than five million members it’s the most fun and exciting way to get in on the action while you watch your favorite sports and players all 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trust to make the right decision to to be comfortable on the ball to vary your attack a little bit and you know we we’re seeing this play out in the finals and it and it played out both ways in game three where Boston was able to kind of bottle up Dallas and their heliocentric offense um and get their ball get the ball moving on their end but then when but then Dallas made their big run in the fourth quarter when they were able to kind of bottle up Austin force them into ISO play it’s still you know the sport is really really simple yes you need great players who can beat great defense but it’s about creating uh mismatches it’s about creating the defense collapse and getting two to the ball and having the wherewithal to make the right pass and move the ball quickly and say For the First Time all series in that third and fourth quarter Dallas did a good job bottling up Boston and making them question whether they were making the right pass this is a problem Boston has they kind of fall into this trap where they go one-on-one a lot Orlando’s offense is still very very dependent on that and so you know like we saying talking about Paul George Paul George gives you another guy who can attack um a guy who’s a a happy passer you know not a high assist guy but a very happy passer but I still think get the you know it gives you another decision maker so again I’m not I can’t make a good basketball argument against signing Paul George because it’s it he works like he just makes everyone better around him he’s good defensively um I I I can’t make a basketball argument against him it fits the thing it fits the thing the magic seemed to like to do I think there is a word of warning though um to to that idea Boston works because they do have a point guard in white um and Drew holiday you know they have two n kind of more natural decision makers and organizers when Boston breaks down though it’s because they go into that shell and go into that isolation ball and so if if I’m a little obsessed and and I’ll admit to this being a little obsessed about this because when I exited the playoffs I was like the magic needed another guy who could create they need a playmaker and an organizer as pal vaner put it to the Washington Post they they need a Center and so I think finding a point guard is really important I think Derek white and Drew holiday have done wonders to make that Celtics offense H especially Derek white Dereck white just like I’ve said this a million times like Derek white is who the magic need the magic need Derek white um he’s not available but they need him um you need an organizer to help your offense home and I think you know I think back to to the Phoenix Suns and their experiment they went all in on three high price Players Kevin Durant Devin Booker Bradley Beal all three have been generally very willing passers like it’s like Devin Booker is willing to pass Kevin Durant is willing to pass um Bradley Beal has been willing to pass and it just didn’t work they tried Deon Booker at point guard they didn’t have a natural point guard to kind of get get them into sets and they devolved into kind of iso ball to giving each everyone a turn and you know and doing all that and like my fear is that the same would happen for the magic that in the playoffs we’d see the magic be like Dallas’s or like when Boston is at their worst like they were in the fourth quarter of game game three where at the end of the day it just becomes a your turn my turn sure Paul George spreads the floor a little bit better for you but he gets a turn fron gets a turn Pao gets a turn and maybe that’s how all offenses devolve at a certain point in the playoffs maybe that’s where everything heads and it’s just well can you work your way out of it or can you fight that urge or can you execute and score on that that’s like the whole D essentially that’s what Boston is daring Dallas to do in this series is they don’t think luuka and Kyrie can beat him by themselves and the way Dallas started to come back in game three was yeah Luca and Kyrie hit some tough shots and hit some got to the basket a little bit more but they started forcing uh Al Horford to step up to the ball and they’re able to kick out to PJ Washington for those big threes to Josh Green for those big threes for Tim harway Jr to hit a three or two at the end of the day basketball is a very simple sport you’re trying to create a situation where the defense has to collapse leave a man open and you dish to that open man it’s it’s not rocket science the magic are trying to do it a ton too with Pao Pao sometimes settles for mid-range jumpers and look he’s a star Providence of the stars is the mid-range but you’re always trying to get two to the ball and anticipate that and then make the pass to the open man and then make that shot it’s it’s it’s everything every offense is designed to create that tension where the defense has to decide am I going to commit two to the ball or am I going to stay home that’s that’s basketball and despite the Firepower that a team like the Suns had they weren’t able to do it consistently or consistently enough and some of that is yeah their defense stun um but some of that was they didn’t have that organizer Paul George isn’t an organizer he’s a veteran he would help spacing all that stuff but he’s not an organizer the Magic in my opinion would still need someone to do that or for Jaylen Suggs to develop that I I will I will admit coming out of the playoffs I’m not confident jayen sugs is that guy I’d want someone else in there to do that allow Jaylen to focus on the things he was really good at this year and then maybe he develops that over time and now you have a Derek white Drew holiday situation where you have two really smart organizers to initiate and get your offense going but this is like the central dilemma isn’t it do you push all your chips in for a star get the headlines get the notoriety for that get the national TV appearances for that and then have to try and figure out how to make those puzzle pieces fit and you know I think we all thought that Bradley Beal would be a good fit with that Phoenix team because he’s such an excellent shooter even though he’s got these injury issues at the end of the day Phoenix was done in by their lack of depth because they committed so much money to those three players and Orlando’s in a position where this is their their summer to spend money this is their summer to shore up every part of their roster and create the salaries that they may one day trade for that star down the road this is the NBA everyone becomes available at some point so why I don’t think now is the time to make that kind of a move now is the time to solidify your depth add veterans to your bench be confident in what you have coming off your bench and improve your starting lineup now is the time in my opinion to improve your roster up and down all the way through it isn’t about putting the cherry on top that’s to me what Paul George is and again disagree with me please like I I don’t have a good basketball argument against it um I have a team building philosophy argument against it I have a financial argument against it um but I don’t have basketball reason because Paul George has a lot of things the magic need but I think that the magic need more than Paul George I don’t think Paul George solves every problem for the magic or answers answers one problem but then raises several more that maybe the magic can figure out maybe they can’t but to me the lesson that we’re seeing from the playoffs and from the finals especially is that this is a league that demands that ultimately success is yes you have good topend talent but you have a clear system you have a clear identity you have clear buyin and you have players that can contribute up and down your roster and to me this is the Folly of chasing Paul George because if you do that you’re not investing in depth you’re not investing in that whole picture and you’re leaving yourself potentially exposed both financially and Personnel wise to some major major holes I want to thank you all again for listening to today’s episode of lockdown magic or find me on Twitter Philip rrd subscribe to the podcast and apple podcast your tuned in him Google Spotify Odyssey and all F podcast to your podcast enabled listening device for lat the Orlando Magic be sure to check out orlandomagic daily.com you can find us there on Twitter at omic Daily don’t forget also to check out the podcast on YouTube search for lockdown magic we just passed 3,000 subscribers so thank you all for subscribing um if you have not done so yet please do so it helps us out a ton also be sure to check out my patreon page U the Orlando Magic Club you can find that at patreon.com orlandomagic club for even more magic content I’m working my way through player evaluation should be should have those wrapped up by early next week you can check that out again at patreon.com orlandomagic HUB and as always thank you for your support now that you’re done listening to me be sure to check out the lockon sports day 247 streaming Channel on YouTube and now available on Amazon Fire TV in the free Fire TV channels app lockon Sports is here for you 247 covering the top sports stories of the day with the local Experts of lockon plus our national shows covering every League find lockon sports now available on the free fire TV channels app but that’s going to do it for me today I want to thank you all again for listening to today’s episode of lockedown Magic on our episode tomorrow we focused a lot on the star players the high-end players in free agency let’s talk about some mid-level guys because I don’t like I said I don’t think the magic are going after just one player I think they’re going after three we’ll talk about midlevel free agents mid-tier free agents the magic should Chase we’ll get to that on tomorrow’s episode of lockdown magic but until then for Orlando Magic daily and lockdown magic this been Philip Ross night we’ll see you again next time for another episode of lock on Magic

I honestly cannot find a basketball reason for the Orlando Magic not to pursue Paul George. He shoots, he scores, he defends, he plays as a good teammate, he is comfortable playing off other ball-dominant stars. So why the hesitation? There are some concerns and team-building concerns in going for the big fish this offseason.

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