Should the Miami Heat Trade For Zach LaVine?

Should the Miami Heat Trade For Zach LaVine?

what’s up everybody Wes Goldberg here from locked on heat with a little uh pregame type of bonus episode for you today David rill and I will be back later on this afternoon with a fulllength episode for locked on heat still coming to you 5 days a week Monday to Friday uh with the latest Miami Heat news rumors offseason speculation analysis everything that you’re going to want plus with the NBA draft coming up in 2 weeks we have all of the draft analysis that you need what are the Heat going to do with the 15th pick and the 43rd pick check out our videos our blue notebook series uh scouting a bunch of the prospects that the heat might be interested in we’re going to have a lot more information for you on who the heat are specifically targeting later in the week so stick with it here make sure you are subscribed on YouTube like the video on YouTube also make sure you’re subscribed on your podcast app but let’s jump into what I want to talk about today and that is a mailbag question that I got that we got last week and I think I was maybe too dismissive of it out of pocket uh and I had been thinking about it all weekend and this was the question and I’m showing it uh here up on the YouTube page but uh fast break Freud R in we all know that Zack lavine’s stock has dropped but what are your thoughts on the heat pursuing LaVine and Caruso in a package deal do you think the Bulls are willing to throw Caruso in a deal to just get off the LaVine contract and again I think I was way too dismissive of this off the Jump because I I I just kept thinking about it all weekend and I’m like you know what LaVine is he almost underrated now and then with Alex Caruso making an all defensive team this year having him at the point of attack would be awesome and we explored this a little bit uh on the mailbag episode last Friday and I did say like a guy like Alex cruso does make a lot of sense for what the heat need you put him at the point of attack funneling things to Bam adabo in the middle I think the heat as good as they were defensively last year they have room for Improvement right I thought their their defense was good enough to win games but I didn’t think their defense won them games to me their defense kept them in games and so I do think that it’s scalable I think that there’s another level for the Heats defense to get to where it could be a Minnesota defense or an Orlando defense these top Elite defenses that are actively winning those teams games as opposed to just keeping them in the games if that makes any sense so uh adding Alex cruso obviously would be a huge get for the heat it would give them two defensive team members in their starting five plus when Jimmy Butler is engaged can easily scale up to that level and then if everybody bring back a guy like Heywood heith obviously another guy who’s an elite perimeter Defender so I like the addition of Caruso but to me again my initial reaction was as much as I like Caruso can you find another way to go get him because to me getting Zack LaVine isn’t worth it that’s not the for me the price of getting Caruso it’s just a little too expensive with LaVine and this is where I want to start and a lot of people were in the comments saying you’re crazy Zack lavine’s not better than Tyler herro you’re nuts and I did say you know I think Tyler hero might be better than Zack LaVine and I stand by that I don’t think that it’s just a foregone conclusion that Zack LaVine is Miles and Miles better than Tyler herro uh especially given that LaVine 29 years old Tyler hero is 24 years old when I said that Tyler Hero has a higher ceiling I mean going forward right you can come at me and say Zack lavine’s a two-time Allstar all right cool that was 3 4 years ago like what is he now cuz that’s who you’re trading for you’re trading for a 29 y- old Zack LaVine coming off a season when he only played 25 games who is he now that’s what I care about I don’t care about what he used to be right it’s the same thing that the heat are talking about with Jimmy Butler it’s okay yeah one of the best players we’ve ever had what’s he going to give us this year and three years from now and that’s what we got to think about in terms of giving him a contract and I think if you were acquiring a guy like Zack LaVine and by the way if he was this awesome player that was like a no-brainer All-Star guy the Bulls wouldn’t be able to not be trading him like the Bulls would have a trade for him by now right like that would have been done but they couldn’t get they couldn’t pay anybody to get rid of him at the trade deadline and now you’re getting reporting from NBC sports’s Casey Johnson who does great reporting on the Chicago Bulls beat in Chicago saying that they might just salary dump this guy that they might actually be willing to put stuff into a deal like whatever they were asking for at the trade deadline they’re going to come down in a major way and so again if LaVine was this no-brainer Bonafide All-Star they wouldn’t have to be doing that there were real concerns about his injury history his is lack of defensive ability or effort I should say and more than anything it’s the contract LaVine has 3 years $138 million left on his contract and what I said on the Friday mailbag pod was that Tyler hero if even if we all agree that LaVine is better than Tyler hero and I think LaVine is probably when they’re both healthy LaVine probably is better than Tyler hero but is he $45 million more over the next three years better than Tyler hero Zack LaVine 3 years $138 million left on his contract at 29 years old he’s going to be getting paid $40 plus million 3 years from now tyo doesn’t make anything close to that 3 years 93 million at 24 years old he’s going to be right in his prime 27 years old when he’s making $33 million a year so still be about he’s going to be in his prime while Zack lavine’s probably coming out of it LaVine will be making $10 million more than hero will in 3 years when he’s in his prime so when I say tah Hero has a higher ceiling that’s me basically saying and I might I might have been able to phrase this better in 3 years I think Tyler hero will be better than Zack LaVine will be in 3 years so that’s just something I think if you’re the heat you need to consider because where they are against that second tax apron their payroll is one of the highest in the league right now I think they view they have viewed tahiro over the last couple of years as a core member but they weren’t paying him like a core member right as much as he’s making 20 25 million 29 million now it’s a lot of money but it’s not franchise player money right franchise player money is 35 40 45 50 $50 million what guys like bam and Jimmy Butler are making that’s franchise player money if you get Zack LaVine you are paying him franchise player money and do you think that the trio of Zack LaVine Jimmy Butler and Bam matab bio is worth paying those three guys all of them 40 million plus each per year for the next three years and in Jimmy Butler’s case maybe upwards of almost $60 million 3 years from now that’s sort of the thing that I keep going back to that said I do think I was I I was so fixated on the money part that I was a little bit too dismissive I think about the fit part okay so when it comes to fit I was diving into some of the numbers this weekend and I and there’s some things that really jump off the page to me so first of all in terms of the games played thing I do have there there’s definitely injury concerns with Zack LaVine over the last 5 years he’s averaging 57.4 Point uh games played per season Tyler in that time 56.8 games played over his last five his first five seasons that’s why I did the five season because that’s how long T Hero has been in the NBA since 2019 so basically playing the same amount of games per year so again you could say well then then chalk it up as a as a draw yeah but then again you’re paying Zack LaVine a lot more money per game than you’re paying Tyler hero per game and so that’s just something you have to think about it’s just not hey 57 is games per year from both of these guys no it matters how much you’re paying them per game that’s the sort of thing that you got to think about if you’re trying to invest in a in a what you’re considering a star player if you’re paying Zine that kind of money so you’ve got that but again if you’re trading one guy in T and this is all by the way assuming that you would trade tahiro in a trade and I think you would the deal I’ll tell you what the overall deal would look like in a second but getting LaVine for hero at least you could argue that the games play the availability thing is probably a wash right so then you keep going forward I do think that tah hero is the better three-point shooter of the two the stats bear that out especially over the last three years but lavine’s still an awesome three-point shooter he’s had a couple of years shooting above 40% from three that has come down over the last couple years again maybe injuries play a part of that last year he’s still an elite three-point shooter I this I think Tyler hero is one of the top five three-point shooters in the NBA when he wants to be the biggest problem with t hero is that he doesn’t lean into that part of his game as much as you probably ought to and so you look at their mid-range shots tahiro taking a lot we know what he does he dances into those long twos a little bit too more a little bit too much uh too often and more than the Heat coach staff would want that’s why you always hear the heat coaches talk about hey we want him to beit more of a catch and shoot three-point guy can he drift be on the three-point line more than dribbling in Delong tw’s and there have been signs of Tyler hero being able to do that and I do think eventually he’ll settle into that kind of role but for now over the last couple couple years he’s danced into those mid-range twos way too often LaVine for the most part he does take the mid-range shot he’s capable of taking it but does not lean on it nearly as much as a guy like Ty hero does my favorite part about Zack LaVine is for his career he’s taking 30% of his shots within 3 feet of the basket Tyler hero takes 12% of his shots within 3 feet of the basket this Heat team desperately needs guys who can get to the rim and Zack LaVine can do that and that’s the part that I think I overlooked in my answer uh on Friday’s mailbag was I I got fixated on the contract and the fact that they’re both basically a wash when it terms to games played and three-point shooting but what LaVine is able to do in terms of not settling for those mid-range shots and getting to the basket not just with the dunks right and we know that he can dunk and all these things but again at 29 years old you don’t want to rely on him to always be this high flying Above the Rim dunking athlete but he could still do it and more importantly he’s got that first step and he’s got the size at 6’5 6′ six with this great leaping ability to just get to the basket and he’s willing to do the work to get to the basket and so when you and that is to me the most dramatic difference between Zack LaVine and Tyler hero other than the contract obviously is 30% of Zack Line’s shots have been within 3et of the basket and 12% of Ty Hero’s shots have been within 3et of the basket over their careers you even go last couple years that number is dropping for Tyler hero that number is dropping for him not going up last year he took 88.6% of his shots within 3 ft of the basket that’s not good enough and I think part of the reason is first of all Tyler H never had a great finishing rate under the rim and because of that he’s developed a nice little float game and things like that and that’s a good weapon for him but the float game is one thing to me you still want baskets right at the you still want shots at the basket and Tyler hero compensates for the fact that he doesn’t have that athleticism does not have that height does not have that strength does not have that ability to get to the rim consistently by developing that float shot and that’s good for him to do because of his inherent limitations but Zack line does not have those athletic limitations that tahiro has so he’s able to get to the rim more it has dropped a little bit for Zack LaVine as he’s dealt with some injuries over the last few years but it’s still over consistently over a quarter of his shots at the basket versus less than 10% of tahiro shots at the basket so it’s still a huge difference even when you consider that Zack lavine’s prime years of dunking all everything are probably behind him like I said fewer mid-range shots for Zack LaVine versus tahiro takes way too many mid-range shots and that’s the part that I want to get to here too is when you’re talking about maximizing this Championship window because Zack LaVine doesn’t dance around and do the mid-range shot thing because he’s still an elite three-point shooter an elite off thee catch shooter uh and can get to the rim more consistently he’s a better fit right now with Jimmy Butler and bamat bio than Tyler hero is and we’ve talked about about that a lot how Tyler hero as good as he might be isn’t a great fit next to Jimmy or next to Bam because Jimmy Butler wants those mid-range shots right we know exactly wants to do slow methodical post-ups get those mid-range looks that’s where he wants to play bam anab bio that free throw line jumper that’s his bread and butter that’s the shot that he wants to get to most often Tyler hero wants to dance around do the the dribble stuff wants to get into that mid-range shot find his rhythm that way you can’t have that many guys relying on Mid shots as their primary scoring option and I remember talking to Duncan Robinson on this podcast and even he said look I could do the mid-range shot thing I’ve got that in my bag but we’ve got Jimmy and I’m paraphrasing here we got Jimmy bam and Tyler whose shot diet is primarily mid-range shots and we can to be an efficient offense I need to shoot a bunch of Threes And I need to get to the rim which is a big reason why you saw Duncan Robinson improve his Rim rate this past year and it was really smart by him I think if you were to swap out Tyler hero for Zack LaVine you would still get some of that right you would get a Juiced up version of Duncan Robinson who wants to get to the basket but he’s going to shoot a lot of Threes uh and provide some size on the perimeter so as well as Duncan Robinson fits with that star lineup right we don’t I I think everybody agrees in a vacuum Tyler hero is a better player than Duncan Robinson with a higher ceiling than Duncan Robinson but there’s also no doubt that there’s a better fit in the starting five when it’s Duncan Robinson in place for Tyler hero we even heard Udonis hlam say that on first take a month ago that the starting five just fits better it plays better together when it’s Duncan in there instead of Tyler alongside with Jimmy and Bam so if you want the Talent Plus the fit stuff that would look a lot like Zack LaVine so I do think if you were the heat you were trying to maximize the championship window there’s an argument to be made about getting Zack LaVine and then again you add on the part where and we’re also getting Alex Caruso if you were able to swing a trade for both of them and so I teased it before here’s to me what the trade would look like this is what would work under the salary cap rules and even save the heat a little bit of money and it would be Tyler hero plus Duncan Robinson and then plus Thomas Bryant if you were to opt in and if he doesn’t opt in you can basically swap out his contract with Josh Richardson if he would have opt in or Orlando Robinson in other words just one of those smaller contracts but you would need one of those little smaller contracts to get the deal done for salary matching purposes so it would be Ty hero plus Duncan Robinson plus one of those small contracts we’re going to call it Thomas Bryant who I actually kind of like for Chicago a little bit um for Zack LaVine and Alex Caruso and that would give the heat a starting five of Alex Caruso Zack LaVine Jimmy Butler I’m assuming Nika yovic and then bam adabo plus whatever else obviously they do in the draft in free agency you could still flesh out the rest of the roster the problem is it doesn’t help your payroll issues at all and I do think that if the heat wanted to dramatically relieve their payroll pressures there is a way that you could salary dump either Tyler herro or Duncan Robinson or to Terry Rosier to another team with cap space like Detroit for instance or one of these teams uh and take very little salary back if any salary back and just relieve all that cap uh pressure that you’re facing right now if you were to trade those two big salaries for Zack LaVine and Alex Caruso finding a way to relieve that cap pressure and then resign somebody like Haywood heith and or Caleb Martin becomes really difficult right because now you’re definitely jumping back into that second tax apron and all the multipliers and everything it becomes a really expensive team maybe that’s something that the heat would be willing to do maybe not bring back both Caleb and Haywood then maybe bring back one of them so that one of those guys can come off the bench and give you a little bit more defensive oomph if you think that this team could be good enough to maximize this window right now maybe Mickey Arison says you know what let’s go into the second tax Aon for a year and then see what happens again long term if you’re Andy ellisburg and you’re crunching these numbers you’re like whoa uh well now we’re going to so if you do the LaVine trade I do think it’s obviously then you’re going to say you know what Jimmy let’s just sign you the max extension we’ll give you that third year for 56.5 million we’ll go or whatever it is 58 $60 million and we’ll go from there but it does become the core of the roster not just this year but a year from now and then three years from now where Jimmy Butler is going to be going into his age he’ll be 37 38 years old bam will be fine still in his prime he’ll probably have signed a new extension by then and then Zack LaVine at 32 years old can you put the injury issues behind him I guess we would see but paying him a lot of money that year and if you’re the heat that’s just something that you have to be aware of and that’s sort of the calculus that you have to do in your head is 3 years from now this could be really really painful for us but do we think that we can maximize this Championship window now and maybe over the next two years where you know what we gave oursel a really good chance this year and next year and even if it looks bad 3 years from now we’ll we’re willing to live with it when all these guys are on expiring contracts and we’re just a really expensive team and maybe it’s just a gap year for us but we’re willing to live with that Gap year 3 years from now in order to maximize a window for a year or two years in the immediate term so again I I don’t like the salary still really scares me the salary number here scares me because you’re also got to think about the opportunity cost here is Zack LaVine the best thing that’s going to come around over the next two years is it the best thing that’s going to come around this summer right I don’t think that Zack LaVine would be at the top of Miami’s wish list you know we’re still talking about Donovan Mitchell we’ll see what happens with the Atlanta guys does anybody else Shake loose what’s going on across the league but I think I was too dismissive offhand to just just completely dismiss it as an option altogether I think it needs to be an option it needs to at least be something that the heat are thinking about on the board somewhere at CA Center it his name should be written down it’s not a no-brainer for me it would be a really hard thing to pull the trigger on but I don’t think that there’s any doubt that doing that doing a deal like that also we haven’t talked about the Chicago side of it would they even want Tyler herro Duncan Robinson for Zack LV and Alex Caruso would the he have to throw in the 15th pick in the draft would they have to do something like that that’s a whole other part of the negotiation but on paper just the idea of Zack LaVine I think plus Alex Caruso has a lot more Merit than I probably gave it credit for when we did the show on Friday so that’ll wrap up my little bonus segment thing here that we just did again hit that subscribe button on YouTube thanks so much for the support all offseason long lock on heat Monday to Friday we’re going to have another episode for you later today on Monday afternoon when David and I have a chance to connect and we’ll have another one coming to you on Tuesday morning but for now thanks for listening have a great day

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