Cap Sheet Raptors : 2024-25 and beyond.

Cap Sheet Raptors

2024-25:

There is three routes for the Raptors this season

Route A: Exercice Brown option and retain Trent

If we are to exercice Brown’s team option, even if we trade him, it’s likely to get salaries in return . Exercice Brown’s option and retain Trent should be bring under the luxury tax but still somewhat close. Obviously it’s all depends on how much salaries we get back from trading Brown and how much we give to Trent .

But assuming Quickley start at 25M on year 1, Brown is 23M, Trent is 20M (likely to be below, especially after Monk’s contract with SAC) and three minimums salaries (Nwora, JFL and our 2nd rounder) bring us to 170,5M with luxury tax for 171,3M

Note : the minimums salaries player could be different than Nwora/JFL but I named them for sake of simplification

Route B : Exercice Brown’s option and use full MLE to replace Trent (not necessarily his SG/ shooter position but the roster spot)

Using Brown’s option make it more likely that we are an above the cap team and therefore we could use the MLE. If we don’t bring back Trent , then it’s expected we use the full MLE.

Route C: Don’t exercice Brown , waive Trent Cap hold and have some cap room

With that route , we could have around up to 29M of cap room.

That route is unlikely

Another route not explored is pick up Brown’s option and let him expired next summer .

2025-26

This is where things get interesting .

Scottie Barnes : Will he get mini max or super max . Will he get 25% of cap or 30%. I suspect the Raptors will put the language that he could get 30% should he get all nba . My assumption is the organization going to assume he gets 25% at first and should he get 30%, they will gladly adjust their plan accordingly . Exemple they could decide to trade one of Olynyk or Poeltl or even Agbaji for an expiring should we get there. For the subsequent years in my model I used 30% to see the effect if long term Barnes get to the all nba level.

I will assume that it’s 25% of cap for 2025-26.

Quickley : I will assume he gets around 27M by year 2.

Draft pick 2025: I will assume we get a high pick but not a super high either . I put 5,7M as starting salary for that pick . Originally I wanted to put pick #8 but forgot about the 120% of the rookie scale . Therefore 5,7M would be around pick #11. Obviously the real amount could be a bit higher if Raptors get a better pick than 11.

Let’s assume that Trent and Brown or any player we got for Brown are gone by that time.

Assuming three minimum roster spots for Nwora, JFL and Detroit 2nd rounder this would means that we have around 26M for three players to stay below luxury tax for 180M.

Note : the minimums salaries player could be different than Nwora/JFL but I named them for sake of simplification

This is why trading Brown for a player with term or giving more than one year to either Trent or any MLE player during this off season is a decision that the organization need to take seriously .

It’s a danger to be either over agressive or under aggressive .

Money can always be moved, a player like Poeltl, Olynyk, Agbaji even RJ can be trade for an expiring next off season.

That is said committing to term beyond this season could provide some challenge down the road.

• Hunter : would be a bit above 23M during season 2025-26

• Wiggins : would be a bit above 28M during season 2025-26

• Heurter/Barnes : would be around above 18M/19M during season 2025-26

As you could see any player taken in exchange of Brown could eat most of the margin’s room below the luxury tax for 2025-26. This is even without considering Trent or any player acquired via the MLE during this summer .

This is why I think it’s unlikely the organization commit too much beyond 2024-25 if the organization exercice Brown’s option to trade him for a player with term. Would not surprise me if the organization overpaid for 2024-25 but add a team option for next summer .

Obviously if Brown is traded for expiring then there is no problem signing up Trent / MLE beyond this season .

This is also why I think that if Brown is traded for an expiring it might be more likely than the player is below 20M than above 25.

But Wiggins would be much more complex albeit not impossible to navigate.

2026-27

Assuming a luxury tax limit of 189M.

Barnes : I assume 30% of cap that season . Obviously could be 25% also. Like I said above at that point I wanted to see the impact should he get where we hoped he gets.

If Barnes got 30%, this means he is close to 50M. Let’s say Quickley is at 29M same as RJ, Poeltl is still there at 19,5M. Dick and Agbaji are still there at 7M.

• Assuming we don’t have any remnants of Brown , Trent or any MLE signed this off season

• Assuming around 4M each for both our 2026 1st pick .

• Assuming our Detroit second rounder is not at around 4M and our 2025 1st is not at 6M . Assuming our 2024 1st is not at 4M

• Assuming two player with minimum salaries.

This above scenario would give about 20M for two remaining rosters spots.

The more we go down the line the harder it is to project because the more likely there is other trades/picks happened. Therefore it’s harder to project. It’s likely one of the player listed above maybe is not there anymore .

But for the sake of the argument, it’s another reason why in exchange of Brown a player below 20M would make more sense than a player above 25M if there is long term attached.

Not that it would be impossible to have a player around 25M long term . But just that other moved would have to happens to stats below the tax.