Is Reed Sheppard to the Rockets a lock? w/ Ben DuBose

Is Reed Sheppard to the Rockets a lock? w/ Ben DuBose

what’s up guys we podcast my name is somman at somon NBA on X here joined by B Duos at bendubose he writes for the he covers the rockets for USA Today sports Media Group how you doing Ben doing well ready to get a draft and free agency week started my man yeah as you can see I’m a little rusty on the intros but it’s good to have you back on the show it’s been a long time since we talked real quick for the audience listening or watching be sure to subscribe to the Rand podcast on YouTube iTunes wherever you get you listen to the podcast give us five stars if you’re listening on iTunes or Spotify and yeah guys that really helps the show out all right so the NBA draft is a few short days away we’re going to be previewing the Rockets end of things obviously they have the number three overall pick via the Brooklyn Nets and I think bearing some unforeseen trade this is probably going to be the only real exciting event of the Rockets offseason uh I’ve talked about this before on the show this is shaping up to be kind of a laid-back summer for the Rockets they’re probably going to pick up all their player options sign someone on the mle and then call it a day draft night’s probably the only night where we might get some fireworks let’s start here before we get into the players that could be available at number three all the reporting that we got this week seems to suggest that Houston will entertain offers for the pick up until the buzzer as it stands now Ben do you think Houston trades or keeps the pick I think keeping is always the safe bet simply because so many things have to align in order for there to be a trade I will say I think the odds of a trade would go up significantly if Donovan kingan is on the board because it seems like to me from the scenarios that I’ve read and what I’ve heard I doubt the Rockets trade out entirely I think the odds are they might look at moving back into somewhere in the six through n range and I think a lot of those teams could be moving up like Memphis like Portland Forge Adin Kling and a very high floor yeah uh yeah conceivably kingan could pair with wmy and be that s of enforcer if you will so I think kingan being on the board and the top two picks being the French guys R and SAR in some order that would open up the most possibilities but I just think I mean I think for starters you’d most likely need kinging to be on the board and then you’d need the other team to be willing to offer enough for the Rockets to say a deal is worthwhile we know it’s not a great draft class so I think the odds you know there’s a reason why there haven’t been that many trades at the top of the draft in general over the last decade and so I think you combine that with all the uncertainty of this year and I think the odds on scenario is just un it’s just staying Pat yeah I’d be pretty conc consistent in saying that I think Houston just keeps the pick I’m with you it’s very hard for teams to trade a top five pick like emotionally right like I just like I don’t care how weak people think the class is like it’s only been like done like a handful of times this Century the Rockets may be in a unique circumstance uh in that they weren’t they aren’t supposed to be here right but I still suspect there’s like a 65% chance that they keep the pick 35% is high in terms of like projecting a trade yeah but it that is because the rocket circumstance is unique and you just don’t know yet what these teams in the top two are going to do we kind of have an idea where they’re leaning although I’m not sure where Washington’s leaning they they seem to be kind of uh Hush Hush about it we do know where Atlanta’s leaning and it that does lead us to believe that possibly the the players that Houston’s looking at could be available at number three if they did trade the pick really quick before we get into the players what do you think they’d want I think if they if they trade the pick I mean ideally I think they would want two future picks however I just don’t know if that’s realistic given how weak this draft is I think the primary motivation would be to sort of add to the war chest of their stockpile for the big consolidation trade that you know it still could come this summer but more likely it’d be down the line and so I think the primary motivation would be to get one future first round pick to sort of add to that asset stockpile ideally I think they’d get two or three but I think the more likely scenario is that maybe you could move down to Seven 8 n something in that range and then get a future first on top of that and then if you move down I could see you know let’s say the Rockets aren’t sold either they aren’t sold on Reed Shepard having super high-end upside or perhaps they just don’t think that he would have the runway to develop that way here if that was the case and they were looking at the pick sort of being a high floor low ceiling guy anyway I could see the moving down a few slots for you know like a high floor role player like a Dalton connect or a Devin Carter someone like that and saying you know what if we think we’re getting a role player out of this anyway then why don’t we move down a few spots and then get a future first- run pick on top of it not sure if that’s offered but that’s the one type of scenario that I could see it would require them being not super high on Reed themselves and also saying hey we think we could get a guy in sort of the same tier while also getting a future pick for the for the war chest down the line I’ll say this I tend to believe they prefer trade out versus trade down well I I think so too I just don’t know how realistic that is but yeah yeah yeah and the reason I say that is I think the Rockets have been trying to trade out of the draft for a couple years now they try I think they really wanted to trade the pick that eventually became cam Whitmore it’s the problem was cam Whitmore became available and they’re like no you know what we’re going to keep keep the pick right and this year I think they the plan was also to trade this pick I believe yeah it’s sort of the same thing Jonathan Fagan wrote about that before the lottery and it’s a very similar Dynamic I love the cam Whitmore example because in both cases the pick the asset value might be too high to trade out like if they were trading from pick nine or pick 10 that think it’d be pretty easy to pick that for to trade that pick for a future pick and if it falls to the end of the first round whatever a pick nine Pick 10 in this draft may not be all that valuable anyway as opposed to now if you trade pick three you just can’t trade pick three for say one future first that might end up for all we know at 27 or 28 so it’s sort of a similar Dynamic to cam a year ago and that just based on circumstances the asset value might be too high to justify trading it for a future pick yeah have you seen that game that kids are playing on Tik Tok where they’ll get the glass of water next to the sink and they’ll just kind of like keep opening the yeah so the Rockets roster kind of feels like that full glass of water right now yeah yeah and I think Houston’s plan was to kind of dump a little bit out a little bit right or like pour it into a different glass right like they they didn’t want to play the game anymore right they just want it feels like kind of a young player overload with right and they’re trying to find playing time for these guys right I think right there’s a real chance that cam Whitmore would have struggled to find playing time had it not be with the injuries this year right yeah and injuries yeah and injuries worked out in his favor and he was was able to play and this year I just don’t like I I know there are people talking about how player X may have a cleaning uh cleaner Pathway to playing time versus player y I just don’t think there’s a clean pathway period for any of these guys to playing time this year right whoever they draft it’s going to be very hard no and I think that’s what makes the trade down scenario somewhat palatable because I don’t think there’s anyone they could draft at three that would have a clear Runway to develop and so with that in mind I do think there are scenarios where if theoretically you could trade down get a player that’s likely to have sort of the same development trajectory if they’re just playing you know 12 15 minutes per night maybe some DMP CDs maybe they go to the g-league for a stun like cam did a year ago and you get a future first then that might be more palatable than taking a guy at number three who you know we can say in theory this guy might have star upside or we want him to have star upside but there’s not really way to play him and to bring that out and to develop that’s why I think a trade is still on the table yeah I I I think yes like it’s it’s easier to sell the number six pick being in an RGV versus the number three overall pick right right for sure but in terms of quality of player I’m not sure how much of a difference there’s going to be from three to six and that’s why I’m like yeah I think Houston I mean like listen they’re not going to complain they’re not going to be upset they’re not they’re not upset that they have this problem this is a a good problem to have right but it is something that they’re going to have to manage I look at Oklahoma City kind of having to trade Josh giddy a player that they really liked internally or uh more of a win now piece for Al like Alex Caruso I think down the line like next year or the year after we may see a trade like that with one of the coric right because it’s it’s getting to a point where like you need to balance some of this playing time and role and development Pathways like there needs to be some of that happening organically and if it’s not happening organically they might have to force the issue on the trade market yeah well and just financially it’s going to be very difficult to keep all six together I don’t care what Rael Stone says if they all pan out it’s going to be pretty difficult to keep these guys all into their second and third contracts so you look at some of those guys where there’s a little bit of an overlap in skill set certainly Jaylen and cam to an extent Jabari and tari I think if one of those guys pans out it might make it a little more likely that the other you sort of use to trade for a piece that’s more cost controlled to use your analogy something that you know it would just be very tough like let’s use Jaylen and cam as an example because I think that’s you know the most clear overlap in skill sets if you pay Jaylen green if he proves worthy of getting a Max this coming season or something close to a Max and you invest in him at 35 $40 million a year it’s tough to see two three years down the line why or how you would justify paying cam Whitmore something close to that so there could be a world as soon as next offseason where you say you know what maybe it makes sense to cash out on cam a little bit early because that role isn’t going to be there well the role might be there but the financial slot is not going to be there for him long term and conversely if Jaylen goes out and struggles this year that and cam has a really encouraging Year too then you might say you know what if jaylen’s market value is $30 million maybe we want to explore signing and trading we have a much more cost controlled guy in cim Whitmore who plays a very similar position in internally so these are sort of the the conversations they’re going to have to have the next couple years regardless and you know potentially this draft slot could figure into that as well I mean if you take a guy like Reed Shepard then sure he could fit into this same debate moving forward in terms of How likely it is you keep jayen How likely it is you keep Cam and so on and so forth that’s sort of the appeal if you keep the pick it gives you one more hedge But ultimately at the end of the day it is a hedge it’s important to keep that in mind because it’s going to be very difficult to keep these guys all into your uh contract two contract three no matter what Rell Stone says yeah Bingo like like the the the clock’s going to come next summer right it when when the first set of extensions uh start to come up right like people are going to talk about this summer being extension possibilities for shenon and jayen green I think you and I kind of know that’s not going to happen right like the Rockets want to reserve flexibility right now right and right they’re they’re not going to pay anyone until they have to pay someone and I think the trade deadline this year is really where you’re going to see that first kind of point of Reckoning for both those guys but most specifically Jaylen right like that’s going to be kind of like the first like okay like like either you have it or you don’t or either we want you or we don’t right that that kind of thing so yeah I I think it’s going to be interesting for sure let’s get into this so I don’t know if you had a a big board going into this I I had had to do a crash course on this and I had to talk to people right like I I had to do more talking this time than watching cuz I didn’t have time I didn’t know they were going to be this high right I was expecting so that being said I did have a rough sort of Big Board because I had to make one and yeah I was kind of like toying and play and you know like with the idea of releasing it I never end I I never actually ended up doing it right I was like you know what I’m kind of scared in in putting in putting out what I have but then I woke up on Thursday and I’m like you know what I’m just gonna I’m just gonna say what I think I’m just going to say what I think I’m going to start writing an article today about who I think are the two greatest prospects in draft and the the moment I start typing I start putting pen to paper kello reports that the Rockets are leaning towards the two guys that I had in the article which is Reed Shepard and Donovan Clingan I think those I thought I think these are the two best prospects in the draft I I I just I know there’s a hesitancy to say that out loud right there’s a lot of people that are just like because the the consensus seems to be if there is one Alex SAR at number one and then there’s Zachary re possibly at number two I don’t know what the Zachary rese stuff’s coming from I don’t I don’t understand it still right like to that question if the athleticism is there yeah to me it feels like a lot of wishcasting in terms of like what what you want this sort of player to be versus yeah exactly and I I just think you if if you don’t have the archetype there go go go for the best players go for the guys were actually producing at a high level at an elite projection level last year and those two guys were Donan Klingon and Reed Shepard they may not be Stars right they like there’s a possibility they aren’t but this may not be the draft for stars yeah and I also think that the board should vary from one team to the next because I think with the rockets in particular if they keep this pick the floor matters because the way the team is constructed with the core six it’s a little tougher for a project type to achieve his ceiling this is not a situation like with Jaylen and Jabari where a top rookie comes in and is going to play anything close to 30 minutes per game just because so some of these younger guys that need a lot of Runway to sort of Iron Out The Kinks if you will guys like Alex SAR I don’t know that they’re going to find that here the Rockets are already a 500 team they are trying to win at a high level and so that’s where Donan kinging and re Shepard I agree with you have a lot of appeal to me because there’s a high floor they can contribute to winning to some extent right away now it might be a smaller role year one and year two we might be talking 15 20 minutes per game but they do some things that will translate day one at the NBA level clinging with his Rim protection with his IQ with his passing read with his shooting certainly there’s other aspects of the game for both of those guys that you want to develop but they have some day one ready-made skills and I think that’s something that really matters for a team like the Rockets So when you’re coming up with your board and I agree with you on this it can’t just be in an abstract sense you’ve got to look at one team’s specific situation so that’s why I came back or the player specifically right like what are they what did they actually do right like like like my thing is like stop drafting for our archetype right like like this this is my biggest frustration with draft Twitter right and I wrote about this in my article they seem to there’s this I called it in the article I called it Wing culture right like like there’s a Wing culture in draft Twitter right like they want wings right and they’re going to draft for whoever they think is going to be the highest projectable Wing instead of drafting the highest projectable player right because the modern NBA is X and you have to draft for x and it’s like the modern NBA is going to be different by the time these guys are in their primes you don’t know what’s going to be valuable right and like if you draft for that if you draft for x or y you’re going to miss on players like Alper and shenon right yeah when you’re putting when you’re drafting Inside the Box you miss on guys outside the box right it’s a it’s not it’s not it’s not rocket Sciences it’s not not rocket science it’s it’s just I don’t know um I I yes the team context is part of that but also like just Zachary Rees sh wasn’t that good he’s fine he’s he’s fine he’s a three-point shooter who can possibly defend and he might be able to shoot threes he had one good three-point shooting season right like it’s kind of questionable whether or not he’s an elite three-point shooter as some were projecting him to be yeah yeah and I would say another example of this so we haven’t talked about Stefan Castle yet I do like Castle however however for him to take the next step I think he needs to develop as a shooter and how many reps can the Rockets give him in that capacity I think you know you can point to am Min Thompson but am Min Thompson has more size he has more athleticism there’s more positional versatility to him and now You’ be adding Castle to a men in terms of guys with questionable shots now I know Castle’s form is not as broken as a men’s at the moment but the point is neither one of them is a guy you want shooting threes at anything close to volume in the NBA so the phrase I keep going back to and it’s one that I’m I’m borrowing from Nathan grubble I had him on my podcast at lger line a couple of weeks ago he’s draft deeper on Twitter SLX is Runway you have to consider what you are willing and able to do with each player once they’re on your roster and to use reeden example it can’t be just about using him coming off screens and just face the floor as a shooter for him to justify being the number three pick he needs to develop in the other area of his of his game as a point guard as a Defender a lot of folks have compared um Reed to Fred Van Fleet and so in that sense Fred could be an ideal Mentor for him okay try and develop Reed as a facilitator learning under being something of an understudy to Fred perhaps he replaces Fred once the team gets more expensive and we have to wait and see whether Fred gets a second deal here so if you have a plan for that if you are able to develop him in that way then it makes sense however you look at a guy like Alex SAR yeah there’s a lot of potential and a team like Washington may be able to give him reps to work on his deficiencies the same can be said for Stefan Castle in Houston I don’t know if a Rockets team trying to win can do that I think they can with Reed at least to an extent because even if Reed takes some lumps as a Defender as facilitator okay he’s still going to provide positive value as a shooter so that gives him a little bit of um you know margin for error if you will with Donovan kingan it’s a little bit tougher because and that’s why even though I like and Reed about the same i’ actually been slightly higher on Donovan through the process I’ll come around through Reed because I think if it’s close fit can be a tiebreaker and it’s a little easier to fit read here as opposed to Donovan who at this point is a centeron just like shenon we can wish we can hope they develop a three-point shot that Warner both can develop you know the foot speed to defend on the perimeter but right now they’re fives only and so that might limit uh Donovan a little bit in terms of that Runway you also have Steven Adams on the roster and so on and so forth but those are the types of conversations you have to have it’s not just about how the player looks on paper and what theoretically he can be as much as you want to say that you can put him in the G league and develop these strengths some of these strengths are never going to be developed at a material Level until the player does it in the NBA and some of these more raw types I’m just not sure how they’re going to get the time the Reps they need in Houston on a Rockets team that’s trying to win so that’s how I gravitate towards Reed and Donovan and a little bit more towards Reed simply because Donovan is a little position limited right now the only other scenarios I would throw out and I teased to it earlier but if they traded down then yeah a guy like Dalton connect or someone like Devin Carter I could see appeal to them as well for the same reasons and that there’s some ready made skills day one and so because of those ready-made skills it’s a little bit easier for them to work on the shortcomings at the NBA level yeah I mean here with with Reed I just think and Donovan like I just think those are the two best guys like in a vacuum like regardless of Team like I’m will to go that far with these guys like I just I just think like I don’t know why with Donovan I don’t know why he’s not the consensus number one overall pick right like his impact was incredible two time NCAA Champion really soft touch with both hands great defensive player and we’re drafting for guys who we think can be more malleable I guess is that’s the idea here that’s like oh we’re like and like why like like like what what’s what’s preventing you know klling in from being a great NBA player not not much other than I guess team context right yeah and I I think Wing Twitter is a good way to put it the wing Obsession Wing culture yeah that’s what it is yeah Wing culture there you go um because yeah if you’re drafting Rudy gobear I mean that is incredible value and yet people are somehow down on Rudy Gober just because he doesn’t fit you know the modern template and you know we know there’s you know a few times in the playoffs he’ll get switched on to Luca and get cooked but come on the the impact overall even if it’s not the way most of the league is going that’s because there aren’t that many players like that if he pans out to that level and I think a lot of evaluators think he can why would you not be interested like I I was floored earlier I was having a discussion on my timeline earlier today I threw out a scenario of trading down with someone who’s a re fan and I mentioned you know what if eeme udoka who we know is going to have a voice in these conversations thinks that um Devin Carter is the Marcus Smart for the next generation and we know eeme values Marcus Smart he was basically the captain of that Boston team that eay took to the NBA finals in Boston and there’s been some talk that the Rockets might even consider a Smart Plus n proposal to trade down if they’re that high on Devin Carter that they think he has like Defensive Player of the Year upside I don’t care that he’s not a wing I don’t care that he’s not a shot Creator so to speak that is still an immensely impactful player now that’s a very different type of Defender than kingan who’s a rim protector who’s a big but I think we’re getting to the same Dynamic which is that there’s such an obsession on wings these 6’8 6’9 athletes can that can defend one through five and yeah that’s great but there’s still a role for defense at a high level at the point of attack with smaller guys and with your Rim protectors your true drop guys like Donovan King and like Rudy goar and if you can be like a best defensive player in the League type of player then even if that doesn’t fit in the modern I don’t know Wing culture if you will there’s still a lot of value when it comes to winning games from that type of player yeah I mean like look at the last five NBA champions the Lakers the Warriors the the nuggets the Celtics like I I mean I maybe I’m I’m forgetting another team but one of those teams was built around Wings right like like the other ones kind of found utility Wings to to make it up right like there’s lots of ways to do it yeah and like the NBA is not homogeneous as you said like there’s lots of ways to just get a cat and like I think part of this stems from like 10 years ago when darl Mory was really kind of ahead of the the curve here it’s saying like these kind of three and D wings are undervalued right like three and D yeah like that was true 10 to 15 years ago when my was saying that I think if you ask Mor now he probably have a different answer right like we’ve caught up right like they’re they’re sufficiently valued and I think in some cases overvalued right well in in in like the mavi’s trading christops porzingis for like Tim Hardway Jr and I’m I’m forgetting the second player right like that kind of a trade represents kind of like going too far with it right well and I also think Wings theoretically give you more protection against a bus scenario because the super long Wings there’s multiple roles that they can be used in so I think because there’s more utility and they can fit in more roster constructs then a lot of GMS and in turn a lot of fans think those players are safer the thing about the Rockets is and fans should not forget this the Rockets have a strong hand as is the Rockets already have a deep young core they are 500 as is they are getting better just through internal development organic learning whatever you want to call it so The Rock ET can gamble on best player available the Rockets don’t have to think and I think that’s where a lot of these you know Wing or project players these archetypes are so appealing it’s because well if they develop one way then they can fit this role if they develop in a different way then they can be used in this capacity as opposed to you know a reed sheeper or Donovan kingan there’s there’s sort of one way that you can use those guys and we generally know what that is and so it just depends on are they good or not are they good enough or not but the Rockets can take that Gamble and that’s what shouldn’t be forgotten the Rockets are not the Washington Wizards the Rockets are not needing to necessarily take the biggest theoretical swing just because it gives or one that gives them more outs because I don’t even know it’s necessarily the biggest swing to your point if King is the best player and that’s the biggest swing it’s more just a guy like SAR and jeser S reer say I think a lot of fans view them as having you know more potential outcomes as opposed to the Rockets the Rockets can just say look even if the role is more defined we have enough as is we can just go for who we think is the best player and at the end of the day we can sort the rest out later yeah and like having more potential outcomes doesn’t necessarily mean they’re likely to reach those potential outcomes right like like that that’s my that’s always my argument with this stuff it’s like yeah is is Alex star does he have more Pathways in the NBA than your typical rookie sure but does that mean he’s going to reach the highest end like like no probably not like I mean there’s more going against him than than for him in that respect right the only thing going for him is that his his archetype as a player I don’t know I just think like and you’re right the Rockets already have a dir of wings right they like all almost every player on the roster except for shenon every young player on the roster is a wing right so I I just I just think it’s just a narrow framework of thinking about the NBA and thinking about the draft in general I think that’s probably the biggest Advantage one may have in evaluating the draft if you didn’t view it in that narrow construct you’d have a huge advantage in in evaluating these guys yeah go oh I was going to say although I will to your point I agree that Reed and Donovan are my two favorite players in the draft however I do think at this point in terms of the likely outcome and I say this is someone that was pushing clinging early on at this point the way I would rank what I think is actually likely to happen I think most like likely scenario they stay put in draft re second most likely scenario they trade back or out and then the third most likely scenario is they stay at three and draft someone that is not Reed such as Donan kingan or Stefan Castle or Alex star I just what I’m worried about is Matas balis I don’t think that’s happening because I you heard a lot of that his name early in the process right coming coming out of the Rockets camp and it’s like like like like I I get I’d be surprised I just don’t see the runway for a project like that yeah it’s the same thing with the whole like Wing stuff like like you’re drafting in theory versus practice right he he is he is a talented Prospect but there’s so many question marks with him but yeah I mean like we can talk about this so so you think it’s Reed you think Reed’s gonna be the pick I I think that’s the most likely I mean I don’t have anywhere near the conviction that I did the last few years but that’s precisely why the last three years so we knew in 2021 that their preference was Jaylen we knew in 2022 their preference was poo we knew in 2023 their preference was am men we don’t know in 2024 it has been decidedly more quiet I’m not just saying that perusing through Twitter I can say that through my own conversations they have been far less forthcoming this year and I don’t think that’s necessarily A change in strategy I know some people have said well you know are the Rockets too leaky in the past no I think they leak for a reason I think that it’s not always to Media it maybe to agents and then the agents tell the media but I think it’s you know they want to be transparent there’s a lot of value in the modern NBA with uh with media with fans more importantly with agents and other teams to being viewed as trustworthy to being seen as transparent because a lot of the NBA these days is about perception it’s about narratives you want to be a player friendly organization and so I think when the Rockets view it as highly likely that certain scenario is going to play out then they see it as an opportunity to you know build some trust Equity even if they don’t tell the media themselves if they tell you know a couple agents hey this is what we’re likely to do then that’s going to get you know to the media and that’s why the last couple of years we’ve had a good idea at this stage in the game what they’re going to do that has not happened this year and I don’t think it’s because the Rockets did a 180 and said well we’re just not going to leak anything this year no I think it’s because legitimately they are more conflicted this year there’s not as clearcut of an option as opposed to last year I think they really wanted a Min however the reason that has me thinking reed and I’ve said this throughout the process is that you have to keep an open mind there’s no one in the core six that’s so established that you say this guy is we sure going to be here 10 years and so because of that I’m not going to consider a player of this archetype at this position not even Al for and shenon if you come to the end of the process and you think Donan kingan is best player available you take donin kingan worry about the rest later I’ve said that however because I think they’re near the end of the process and there isn’t clearly a best player available I think that’s why that we haven’t heard a leak the Rockets don’t know at this point I think they’re still sort of debating it internally then I do think if it’s that close which it hasn’t been the last few years then fit can be something of a tiebreaker fit Runway the things we’ve been describing this whole podcast and I think when you look at it in that lens there’s easier ways for Reed to make an impact there’s easier there’s more ways to develop him and so because of that if it’s close then I think they lean Reed simply because the infrastructure is there to develop him in a way that I don’t think it’s quite to that level with the other prospects yeah I think I mean the the report was kind of leaky right like like I mean like that that was kind of a tip of the hand if that ends up being if they do end up drafting one of these two but but I think really when you look at what the Rockets are are you know in terms of organizational goals they they I just think a lot of it is they didn’t expect to be this high that too right like I I just think like that they really their process started later at least for the top yeah their process started later and also like I think they may have because this this draft is so up in the air it does benefit one if you do think someone is clearly ahead of the the curve right and you don’t know if like one pick one or two is going to go in that direction it’s like you’re not number one so there’s no benefit to leaking right so like you might as well keep that to yourself and if that player Falls to you okay yeah now we can have the best player in the draft or the second best player in the draft etc etc although I will say to your point on Kelly’s reporting I don’t know if you noticed but the mock that came out from Jonathan Sunday actually has Reed so even within the two Houston beat reporters you know you have Kelly saying that kingan’s at the top of their list although he said Reed is closely behind and you have Jonathan who in his final mock is projecting Reed so I would just say that I mean sure there’s been a little bit of talking it’s not like who did Jonathan have at one or two um he had I think he had Ray at one and SAR at two um it might have been the reverse order but it was the two French guys at one and two and uh he had kingan falling all the way to seven but the point is you know it’s not that there are no conversations let’s not be silly I mean Rael Stone they’re still returning tax they’re still making occasional phone calls but even to the beat guys here in town I don’t think they’re anywhere near as open as they’ve been the last couple years I don’t think it’s necessarily a changing strategy I think it’s that genuinely there’s still some indecision like I highly doubt even at Toyota Center right now that they 100% know what they’re going to do now part of that may be because there’s you know it’s not for sure what Atlanta and Washington are going to do in front of them but there’s more uncertainty this year and I think that’s sort of driving uh I I guess the the lack of clarity that we have right now compared to this stage the last few years I think they’re going to take Reed like like like gun to the head I think they’re going to take Reed I I that’s what I would say and the reason like like I talked to as many people as I could because again like the lack of knowledge I had on this draft going in was just tremendous compared to the last few years because I I didn’t think they were going to draft this high so I talked to a lot of analytics people and the two names that consistently came up at the top of the models was Shephard and and Clingan both of those two guys no matter which model you looked at like they just consistently the top and we know the Rockets are an anal analytically forus organization we know tar e was a result of that we know that I’m sorry who’ they take a 20 for C more C was another an analytically friendly uh player like we know that the Rockets still use a lot of this in their core decision making and I just tend to believe like if there’s some indecision they might just kind of lean on their numbers and the numbers across the board say reach better yeah and we should note that even if it’s a relatively small sample which it is one year off the bench at Kentucky at the same time shooting 52% on threes for a guy who is already taking a substantial amount from NBA range and Beyond this is not a case where it’s a small sample and a guy just got hot at the you know 20 1/2t College three-point line no he’s already operating well beyond it so that shooting should translate even in a small sample there’s enough there to be confident in it you threw out I think 60 65% for one of your numbers earlier what I would say and this is just a general ballpark I’m at 50% they stay at three and draft read 30% they trade down or out 20% they stay at three and draft someone that isn’t read yeah that’s sort of my my lay of the land right now yeah I’m I was like 65% they stay at three I I don’t know about I yeah I’d say 70% stay at same thing yeah yeah yeah we’re basically in in agreement here like I I think it’s the smart move I mean I think he fits their roster and like in in that like you’re there is a cleaner there’s not there’s no clean Pathway to playing time there is a cleaner pathway for him than the other guys and I just think he’s good like he he’s a tremendous three-point shooter uh tremendous mid-range shooter good in a diverse way like he he’s not just hitting catch and shoots he’s hitting pull-ups at a high clip I think the the what may if you pause is like his handle is still not quite like like he he if he wants to get to the pullup he needs to get more crafty with it right he needs to really work on that handle and if he’s going to play point guard in the NBA he obviously needs to work on that handle well what Also may give you pause is uh he’s 6’3 with the 6’4 wingspan basically that’s that’s a little small for a point guard I mean not for a point guard for for a shooting guard in the NBA so he pretty much like I don’t say he has to play point guard but like the be the easiest Pathways to development involve him playing point guard so he needs to he needs to be the handle needs to be great need needs to get better the def the defens what he showed defensively was optimistic but he still that first step when he’s guarding guys off the off the dribble it’s not always there he’s he’s catching up a lot of times which is fine but like obviously that’s some athleticism work he can work on yeah I think one thing that he does not get enough credit for he’s actually more athletic than you might think he got a he got a ton of blocks on like 42 inch vertical man yeah I mean like the the the amount of three-pointers he blocked like where he was just like way far away he just closing in and blocking threes yeah I mean and the hand eye coordination obviously is I mean that’s with all Shooters but like he’s getting a bunch of Steal too right like and that’s that’s hand ey coordination yeah I would say the one question to go back to the word Runway that I’ve thrown out a few times on this pod it is fair to question just how many on ball reps he can get with Fred as your starter at point guard ideally you want a men to be more of an on ball guy than he was last year when he predominantly worked off ball especially late in the season we know that Jaylen and shenon have a lot of things run through them as well so I understand at a surface level this idea that well are there going to be enough onb opportunities for him to develop in those other areas to be worth the investment but what I would say to that is if all these other things pan out that’s a good problem to have if Fred ages well stays healthy is open to staying long term and will take a you know let’s say hypothetically Fred Takes A Team friendly deal to you know at a lower cap figure to extend after this current he still plays well into his 30s if amen Thompson develops as the point guard you wanted him to be a year ago if Jaylen picks up where he did in March I mean these are good problems have if you have too many good on ball guys you know that’s an embarrassment of riches and whatever you can make moves later I mean that’s that’s where I keep coming back to I mean the the runway thing it’s fair to keep that in mind but I just think with Reed specifically when you look at how it would play out if there’s too many guys internally then you know you’re in a great spot anyway so I I don’t think that’s a situation where you’d say man I wish I had taken someone other than Reed Shepard because worst case he has value as a shooter you could trade him later on I’ve said that with Clingan too like you know worst case if some of these guys don’t uh have the role exactly as you would optimize it here in Houston if they just show skills in some areas then they should be very projectable clinging as a rim projector read as a shooter to where worst case you could trade him later on in a year or two and you know provide a fit that’s a little bit better for you here in Houston so for me it’s just when you actually look at what the negatives are I really don’t think they’re they’re that severe in read case and so that’s why I think the odds on scenario is that they just keep the pick and take him yeah I I I’m I I am very curious to see how he’s going to do against like real like NBA size at summer league is probably going to be the first big test like I want to see how he does against those guys he he he should do well I mean it’s not like he was like struggling by any extent like at the college level when he when bigger guys defended him but it was one of those things where like that was always a question because you’re playing against college guys like how are you going to do against like 6 five 66 Wings you know that are guarding you with like six seven Wing spans like is he still can he still get that shot off is he is he going to have to do more work off the ball running off of screens pin Downs all that stuff to get open that’s going to be interesting he does get high up off the the ground when he’s shooting which is a a good thing and that’s going to help him get some separation and the fact that he so high and he’s not going to get blocked as often yeah this is more for a pot a couple of weeks from now assuming they actually keep the pick but if they do keep the pick draft Reed then yeah I would hope they use a more on ball in summer league just to see how he fares because I think off ball look summer league defenses are not very connected because so many of these guys have just played together in mini camp for like a week before going to Vegas so there’s nowhere near the communication that there is in a real NBA game so because of that I mean if you use Reed off the ball then yeah he’s going to find ways to get open and he’s going to you know bury teams with threes and it’s not even really a challenge when you consider how Elite of a shooter we already know he is I think Ryan rosilo pointed out that he’s one of the best shooting prospects that he’s seen I think wor summer league could be useful because there are a lot of great athletes yeah if you draft him and this is again for a PO a week or two from now if you draft him yeah put him on the ball see how he handles the elite athleticism can he create can you know can he create a little bit of space can he facilitate for his teammates all those are questions that I think would be while not answered it would be much more useful to see how he handles it at summer league as opposed to using them off ball because off ball I mean if you can shoot at all in summer league there’s going to be a role for you just because the defenses are not that connected yeah yeah it it should be fun I I can’t wait till draft Knight I I kind of suspect it might go chalk but that’s fine like like the the Rockets are gonna get a really awesome Prospect may maybe he’s not it’s not the strongest class but you’re talking probably the seven the sixth or seventh overall pick in any other class which is great yeah all right Ben can you tell the people where we can find you on X and read your work uh for us Sports Media Group yep um Bend Duos on X the Rockets wire and the logger line on X and rockets. usatoday.com for all daily cover and the one thing I’ll say I know this is all a draft pod but the last thing I’ll leave people with so you mentioned draft probably being the one uh exciting day for the Rockets this offseason I think you’re probably right however every day that passes without news pertaining to an extension for donin Mitchell or a new contract for Paul George I get a little more suspicious I don’t think the Rockets would make a move for a below Allstar tier we’ve covered that in the past Brandon Ingram even mckel Bridget I don’t think those move the needle as much I think the Rockets would stand Pat for one of the really big names and again it takes two to tango just because the Rockets are unrested even if they want to leave well there’s other teams that be interested too so it’s inherently unlikely but every day there’s not an extension between Mitchell and the Cavaliers not a new deal between George and the Clippers I get a little more Curious so as we get closer to the draft again teams want Clarity on whether their guys are bought in because obviously whether Mitchell is bought in can influence what Cleveland does in the draft what they do in free agency so on and so forth every day the pass without Word of an extension or a new contract I get a little bit more Curious I still think it’s very unlikely I’m not super excited about it just yet but the deeper we go into this week and the closer we get to Sunday’s you know June 30th opening of free agency negotiations the more my eyes are going to open a little bit more to that so I would just say while I’m not predicting it by any means it’s something to sort of keep your eyes peeled for yeah and that’s why I could I put the bearing some sort of unforeseen trade caveat in there because like that like Mitchell is the one guy where it’s like he’s worth it like he’s like a you know all NBA caliber player and like he’s um someone you’d want to put chips on the real chips on the table for right maybe not all of them but like a significant amount of them for consolidation purposes and it ends up being worth it most of the time so you know like it is definitely something to watch for in the meantime listen like I’m okay with this being a laidback summer like the Rockets are in a good spot yeah I don’t think they need to by any means yeah like the Rockets are in a great spot it would be nice to just kind of watch them develop a little bit more next next season then maybe we get fireworks next summer who knows we’ll see how the season ends out but or trade deadline yeah the trade deadline too in the meantime thanks for coming on Ben it was it was a pleasure having you yep if you guys enjoyed the show again YouTube subscribe thumbs up iTunes Spotify five stars yeah guys we’ll talk to you later

Salman Ali (@SalmanAliNBA) and Ben DuBose (@BenDuBose) discuss:

-Will the Rockets keep or trade the 3rd overall pick?
-What sort of return would Houston want for #3?
-Is trading out or trading down more feasible?
-Who do we think the Rockets ultimately take? Who’s going to be available?
-Who do we want the Rockets to take? Best fit?
-Are Donovan Clingan and Reed Sheppard underrated prospects?
-Salman bashes “Wing Culture” on NBA Draft Twitter
-What makes Reed Sheppard such an interesting prospect?
-What are Sheppard’s weaknesses?

All that and more.

Look for RNH on Apple, Google, Spotify, and more.

Subscribe to the RNH newsletter:
www.RedNationHoops.com