My top 10 favorite fits for the Spurs in this years draft

HM: Nikola Topic – He's the best playmaker in the class and a legit threat around the rim, plus his good FT% plus his good touch seems to indicate that he could be a threat from 3. But with the combination of his current poor shooting, his awful defense and the injury concerns, I dont think I'd want him unless the Spurs can steal him in the late first.

10 – Bub Carrington:

We need real shot creation outside of Wemby and Vassell, and Carrington is one of the best shot creators in the entire class. With his great midrange and ok passing touch, he reminds me sometimes of a shorter Derozan.

However, he's not great at the rim and not great at 3. His FT% is high enough to give me hope he can be a shooter eventually, and I think his inability to finish at the rim is just due to a lack of strength which can be fixed with NBA conditioning, but he's definitely a long shot at 8.

9 – Jared McCain

Another smooth operator, he's absolutely lethal at everything, in the 70+th percentile with his jumper, off the dribble, off the catch and spot up. He's also super efficient on the drive, with a 1.096 PPP and a 62.8% finishing percent at the rim, both of which are just as good as or clear other guard prospects in the class. In terms of a pure scoring guard, theres few better in the class, and he's both a solid rebounder and big enough to where his defense isnt a massive negative.

However, he was really screen dependent on offense, so I dont really know just how good his shot creation actually was, and 1.9 apg is awful, even if we factor in the fact that he was playing offball as a 2 for most of his college career.

8 – Tidjane Salaun

There is a lot of things to like about Salaun's ceiling. His frame is fantastic if he can fill it out, he's got a strong motor and plays hard every possession, he cuts, screens and rebounds, and he's actually a solid catch and shoot shooter, at 42% from his open looks from 3. I love his defensive ceiling, especially considering his knack for steals and deflections (1.2 spg).

The problem is that he's just SO raw. His base stats are ok considering his competition, but Salaun is slashing .373/.329/.767, and an especially bad 47.6% at the rim. For comparison, Bilal Coulibaly shot .532/.452/.595 during his one year in France, and Sekou Doumbouya who went 19th in 2019 slashed .482/.343/.573.

Salaun should be a better shooter than Doumbouya in the pros, and his shooting percentages should most likely improve as he gets stronger, but he's still way farther away than some people realize. There's also the issue that I think he's better at the 4 than the 3, which would make him overlap with Sochan.

7 – Daron Holmes II

A recent draft darling, Holmes isnt as popular with media members as some members of the draft community, but he's got real upside as a rebounding 4 who can also shoot and maybe switch in the NBA. With his strong blocking instincts, he and Wemby could throw a block party, swatting balls into the rafters. And he's a great screener and passer, opening the possibility for some interesting combos in the PnR with him and Wemby, and 3 shooters on the wings.

There's a real question just how good his shooting actually is though considering this could be an outlier year and his FT% is still pretty mid, and I am not sure if he can really hold up that well against NBA speed on the perimeter. His length allowed him to sag off players in college and that is not an option against NBA players. His defensive positioning is also questionable at times, and he gets sealed under the rim a bit too easily.

Out of all the potential 4s in class, Holmes II is still by far my favorite pairing with Wemby, but it'll be a few gambles taken if he's the one at 8.

6 – Dalton Knecht

If there's one word to summarize Knecht, its productive. He's leveled up everywhere he's gone, going from the best player in his Junior college to the best player on his Northern Colorado to the best player on Tennessee in the SEC. He's one of the few players in the class with real shot creation ability, as he's both not afraid of physicality at the rim and an super productive off the dribble shooter. His offensive instincts are also underrated, as he has a crazy good feel for how to get open and how to get there.

As much as I like him though, his defense is a serious issue. He's got the size to be a passable defender, but his feet are slow and he reminds me of James Harden off-ball sometimes, which is not a good thing on defense. He actually does make good rotations sometimes considering his BBIQ, but there's absolutely too many glaring flaws to not mark his defense as anything but plain bad. There's also the issue of his lack of playmaking ability, which could be a slight issue if he's not elite offensively in the NBA and has to translate to more of a role player.

All that said, Knecht reminds me a little bit of Marco Belinelli, who was a very solid role player for the Spurs for a few years. Even if his defense never comes around, I cant picture him not being at least a nice bench piece.

5 – Robert Dillingham

I honestly dont think there's a more dynamic shot creator in this class. I have no idea what the hell Calipari was thinking sticking him on the bench, but Dillingham is a true 3 level scorer, slashing an impressive 47.5%/44.4%/79.6% and a solid 15.2ppg/3.9apg on his bench role. He's got the best handle in the class, and isnt reliant on screens to be deadly, as he's a threat both on and off ball. The way he changes speeds and can hit a nice floater honestly reminds me of Prime Tony Parker at times, and we all know how much of a beast prime TP was.

Of course, for all the great things about his offense, Dillingham gives it back on defense and more. The dude is extremely slight, and he's easy to both attack in an iso or screen out of a player. In the modern NBA, its definitely hard to find a place for a defense this bad unless he's a monstrous offensive player and some (just look at the struggles the Hawks have had with fitting guys around Trae Young). There's also a real concern on his ability to finish at the rim, as although he's not afraid to, he's not really good at it IMO. That could be improved with an NBA training regimen, but how good will it really be? An inability to score at will at the rim could be the difference between Dillingham being an All-star and glued to the bench.

Overall, he's one of the most electric offensive prospects in the class, and although I know a lot of people are low on him, I think he's got a real shot at being the best player in the class.

4 – Stephon Castle

The sub's favorite player. Castle fit the mold of what the Spurs have liked in recently years, a 6'6" guard/wing(Pretty much 6'7 in shoes) who can guard 1-3 and has enough passing instincts to be a playmaker in the future. I especially like the possibility of Castle being a playmaking SF in the mold of Andre Iguodala or a poor man's Scottie Pippen. He's strong enough to get to the rim and draw FTs consistently, which is always a good sign for a prospect. A 66.4% finishing percent at the rim and a 47.4% shooting percent in the restricted area is very solid, and his FT% gives hope that he could maybe be a great shooter down the line. As for his defense, there's not a lot that needs to be said. He's the second best perimeter defender in the class behind Ryan Dunn, and he's good both on and offball. His off-ball defense is especially good with how well he rotates and switches, which could make a fantastic pairing with Sochan as they move on and off guys with ease.

Castle may have playmaking upside, but is he really a PG? I dont believe so. I know he's played PG in high school, but I've never seen anything that shows a team can run an offense through him. Of course, he wasnt given the chance to do so in college with Uconn's system, but I've always felt like he was more of a secondary playmaker than a true #1 guy. There's also his massive issues with shooting. He's awful off the dribble from 2 and 3, as IIRC his PPP there was .667 or something. If you just look at his shot chart, there's so much blue you'd think it's an ocean. And most damning, he shot 1/16 from the corners, which is the easiest 3 in basketball, and an awful 3/23 from the midrange. Considering how stacked Uconn was, I have no doubt plenty of those shots were open, and thats alarming. Even if his mechanics arent bad, he shot worse than Ron Holland against worse competition, and Holland's pretty unanimously considered a terrible shooter.

Castle is an interesting prospect, one that I honestly like more at 8 than 4. But even if his ceiling is murky, I do think he'll be a solid contributor at worst. How well he can fit with Wemby will depend completely on if his shot can come around though.

3 – Devin Carter

I love Devin Carter. If you put DAWG in a player, he would be that. Carter is one of the best POA defenders in the class, and with his 6-9 wingspan (Same as Castles's!), he can switch onto bigger players without a huge issue. His attitude reminds me of Pat Bev in the way they play with no fear and live to get under the opponent's skin. His defensive instincts are top tier, averaged 1.8 spg and a impressive 1.0 bpg for a dude who's 6-3. Throw in his fantastic rebounding (8.7 rpg!!!!!!), and its clear Carter is a guy who gets the dirty work done. He's also someone who's improved every year, and even leveled up with Providence's main scorer went down, averaging 22 ppg, 9.1 rpg, 3.9 apg and 2 spg in 20 games. He's also very good at the rim, with a 65.9% mark on 5.3 drives a game, showing off a rather strong touch that gets underrated by his other talents.

For all the good things about Carter, I do have some real questions about his shot. Yes, he's improved drastically, but his guarded shots (44.9%) actually went in more than his open looks (32.7%). Thats not something that's like to continue, and if his actual shooting mark in the NBA is closer to that 32.7%, it really caps his ceiling. There's also a bit of a hitch in his shot. If its going in, sure thats good, but how long will it keep going in? He's also a complete nothing in the mid range, and he's not very good at creating his own shot at the moment.

A lot of Carter's potential is tied to his shot. If he can fix it, or as long as the ball keeps going into the rim, I think he could have a ceiling of FVV. But otherwise, his combination of finish, playmaking, defense and rebounding makes him a very high floor guy who should be a great fit next to Wemby.

2 – Zaccharie Risacher

A rather divisive prospect in recent times, Risacher is someone who IMO we shouldnt over think. He's producing at a high level in the French league, as a core part of the rotation of a team that was in the playoffs. He's a very good catch and shoot player, and he's great in transition too, where his handling really shines. His shot has a quick release and he's a great cutter, perfect for playing next to our hub in Wemby. Defensively, he's got some of the best footwork in the class, which combined with his great recognition skills, allows him to consistently extend defensive pressure and drive the clock down to force the offense to make bad shots. Like Salaun, he's also got a strong defensive motor and he can be a little more disciplined, he has legit 1-4 defensive potential.

The ceiling on Risacher is a little questionable though. I dont love his shot creation ability personally, and considering his measurements and ok at best athleticism, he's not a fantastic on-ball defender. He's rather stiff in a 1 on 1 and can struggle to recover, so he absolutely needs to get stronger. He's not much of a playmaker either, and certainly not someone I'd want the ball in his hands for long stretches at a time. Could he prove me wrong? Sure. But I wouldnt expect him to be a 25+ ppg scorer in any circumstance unless half the team goes down.

Risacher is not the highest ceiling prospect in the class, but he's a strong 3nD player who brings size and defensive versatility that every team values. He should be an immediate contributor at least. And who knows if he might have some hidden potential? I had a similar-ish profile on Brandon Miller last year and he's blown my expectations out of the water.

1 – Reed Sheppard

Any discussion of Reed Sheppard starts with his shooting ability. The dude shot a ridiculous 53.6/52.1/83.1 on 70% TS. if Cal was crazy to not start Dillingham, he was positively deranged to not start Sheppard IMO. His shot is great too, quick, textbook, and lethal. Just look at this shooting breakdown. 45.5% on guarded 3pt shots is better than some players shoot on open ones. He also shot a very solid 59.4% at the rim (on a very low 9% assisted) and 45.8% at non-rim 3s, so hes not just a specialist. And if you watch his isos, he's definitely got the craft and skill to attack the rim, even without elite level athleticism. He's smart enough to not force the issue either, as he wont bull through the defense and force up a bad shot but instead make the smart pass to reset the possession. He was also a very solid playmaker, racking up 4.5 apg and constantly making the right play, a perfect Spurs staple. Defensively, he's not elite because of his size, but his instincts are great, considering he racked up 2.5 spg in just 29 minutes (Devin Carter had 1.8 in 35 mpg for comparison). He's just pesky enough to be annoying and considering I classify him as a PG, his size isnt as much of an issue as it would be at the 2.

Although Sheppard is great everywhere, his usage rate was really low, behind 6 other players including Robert Dillingham. With how well he shoots, I feel like he really shouldve been more assertive and demanded the ball more, especially looking at Kentucky's game vs Oakland were he basically disappeared. His iso possessions also revealed that same issue where although he was smart at knowing when to not force the issue, he had issues fighting through traffic too. How much of his deference was because he knew to make the right play and how much of it was because he just couldnt get to the rim? He also had a VERY low amount of shots coming off screens (4 all year), and there's a real concern on how well he's shoot it with more responsibilities in the NBA. Lastly, his on-ball defense is still a negative, considering his size. He's not Dillingham bad, but he certainly got blew by at times and is someone who can be hunted at the NBA level.

Overall, I love the package of Sheppard for the Spurs. Despite his issues, his combo of IQ and shooting is IMO the perfect fit next to Wemby. The Wemby/Sheppard PnRs will be absolutely disgusting to defend, and he's got enough juice on the other end to not make Wemby work way too hard.

Notable prospects not mentioned:

Donovan Clingan and Zach Edey – Wemby is our 5. He was best at the 5 last year. Why mess up a good thing?

Alex Sarr – I feel like Wemby and Sarr have too much overlap. Both like to be at the same spots defensively, and Wemby is just straight up better at Sarr at everything.